Check out my Breeders' Cup 2019 video recap below!
Showing posts with label McKinzie. Show all posts
Showing posts with label McKinzie. Show all posts
Sunday, December 1, 2019
Saturday, October 19, 2019
Breeders' Cup Classic 2019 Video Preview Featuring Code of Honor & McKinzie
Check out my Breeders' Cup Classic 2019 video preview below!
Saturday, October 5, 2019
Breeders' Cup 2019 Preps: Awesome Again, John Henry Turf, Rodeo Drive: McKinzie, Mirth
Check out my Breeders' Cup Win & You're In video from Santa Anita Park for Saturday (9-28-19) below!
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
Saratoga Week 4 Stakes Recaps (July 31-Aug 4)
NYSS Statute of Liberty Recap (7-31-19) - Winner: Kid Is Frosty ($5.20)
Subsidiary was supposed to be on or near the lead, but he was pinched at the start and never got involved. That allowed Kid Is Frosty to get a very easy front running trip is this flat mile state bred affair on good ground (inner turf course). He was never in danger of losing this race at any point, and he coasted home by three lengths under Irad Ortiz Jr. Post time favorite Niko’s Dream needed pace help and did not get it. He took up chasing duties for the second half of the race and was clearly second best in a solid effort. Sterling Beauty was an even 3rd, and following him across the line were Rosselini, Dancing Slippers, Bangle Gal, and Subsidiary.
Shine Again Stakes Recap (7-31-19) - Winner: Special Relativity ($6.60)
This extended sprint for fillies and mares was scratched down to four runners. Special Relativity stalked from the outside post, pushed to the lead in the stretch, and pulled clear to win by 2-1/2 lengths. She is now 3-for-3 at Saratoga. Saguaro Row ran a decent race as the slight favorite. She broke slow, settled in last, raced wide, and ended up 7+ lengths clear of dueling front runners Awestruck and Mr. Al’s Gal.
Birdstone Stakes Recap (8-1-19) - Winner: King Zachary ($18.80)
King Zachary just had too much stamina for this group. He stalked front runner Marconi, took over after a mile and a half, and won by more than eight lengths. Marconi never quit trying and safely held 2nd over race favorite Rocketry. It was another 19+ lengths back to Patch in 4th, and a good eleven back to Curlin Road in 5th. Talk about a strung out field! Third Day was another 9+ lengths behind in 6th, and tack on a couple of more lengths to last place finisher Royal Albert Hall.
You can read the rest of this article at The Runaway Horse
Subsidiary was supposed to be on or near the lead, but he was pinched at the start and never got involved. That allowed Kid Is Frosty to get a very easy front running trip is this flat mile state bred affair on good ground (inner turf course). He was never in danger of losing this race at any point, and he coasted home by three lengths under Irad Ortiz Jr. Post time favorite Niko’s Dream needed pace help and did not get it. He took up chasing duties for the second half of the race and was clearly second best in a solid effort. Sterling Beauty was an even 3rd, and following him across the line were Rosselini, Dancing Slippers, Bangle Gal, and Subsidiary.
Shine Again Stakes Recap (7-31-19) - Winner: Special Relativity ($6.60)
This extended sprint for fillies and mares was scratched down to four runners. Special Relativity stalked from the outside post, pushed to the lead in the stretch, and pulled clear to win by 2-1/2 lengths. She is now 3-for-3 at Saratoga. Saguaro Row ran a decent race as the slight favorite. She broke slow, settled in last, raced wide, and ended up 7+ lengths clear of dueling front runners Awestruck and Mr. Al’s Gal.
Birdstone Stakes Recap (8-1-19) - Winner: King Zachary ($18.80)
King Zachary just had too much stamina for this group. He stalked front runner Marconi, took over after a mile and a half, and won by more than eight lengths. Marconi never quit trying and safely held 2nd over race favorite Rocketry. It was another 19+ lengths back to Patch in 4th, and a good eleven back to Curlin Road in 5th. Talk about a strung out field! Third Day was another 9+ lengths behind in 6th, and tack on a couple of more lengths to last place finisher Royal Albert Hall.
You can read the rest of this article at The Runaway Horse
Saturday, August 3, 2019
Whitney Stakes Day Video Analysis Featuring Bellafina & McKinzie
Check out my Whitney Day video analysis from Saratoga Race Course for Saturday (8-3-19) below!
2019 FULL CARD SCHEDULE - DEL MAR
AUGUST 3 thru SEPT. 2
DEL MAR INDIVIDUAL FULL CARD PRICES:
WEDNESDAYS, THURSDAYS, FRIDAYS - $5.00
SATURDAYS & SUNDAYS - $10
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my Del Mar picks.
2019 FULL CARD SCHEDULE - DEL MAR
AUGUST 3 thru SEPT. 2
DEL MAR INDIVIDUAL FULL CARD PRICES:
WEDNESDAYS, THURSDAYS, FRIDAYS - $5.00
SATURDAYS & SUNDAYS - $10
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my Del Mar picks.
Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Saturday, September 22, 2018
Saturday, March 24, 2018
Friday, March 16, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Report: Bolt d'Oro, mcKinzie Shine in San Felipe Stakes
Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie, two of the top ranked Kentucky Derby 2018 contenders, put on a show in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10.
Robert Lewis Stakes winner Lombo shot straight to the front in the San Felipe, but McKinzie was all over him from the get-go under Mike Smith. Bolt d’Oro tucked in behind the early leaders from the inside post under Javier Castellano.
McKinzie took a short lead over the tiring Lombo, and Bolt d’Oro made an eye-catching 3-wide move around the far turn. Turning for home, Bolt d’Oro bumped with McKinzie, and the latter returned the favor in deep stretch under left hand whipping from Smith. McKinzie prevailed by a head, with Bolt d’Oro 6+ lengths in front of show finisher Kanthaka. Hold all tickets!
The stewards took a look at the two bumping incidents, and they unanimously felt that the one in deep stretch may have cost Bolt d’Oro a winning chance, so they reversed the order of finish and put the Mick Ruis trainee on top. I cannot argue with a decision that could have gone either way. The top two ran huge, and they are both top tier Kentucky Derby contenders at this stage.
Bolt d’Oro was making his first start since the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was originally supposed to begin his sophomore campaign in the San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 10, but a minor muscle pull derailed those plans. Trainer Mick Ruis said that he was about 80% fit for the San Felipe, and he should be wound as tight as a drum for the Santa Anita Derby.
What is it with McKinzie and disqualifications? He was placed first over stablemate Solomini in the Los Al Futurity, and he had his number taken down in the San Felipe. He is certainly battled-tested after the aforementioned two races, and he easily won his debut and the Sham Stakes (blinkers off). He reminds me a bit of Silver Charm.
Let’s look back at the other two Kentucky Derby points races from March 10:
Gotham Stakes (Aqueduct, 3-10-18; 161 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Enticed was a flat 4th in his 3-year-old bow in the Holy Bull, but the Gotham was a whole new ballgame. He stalked wide from the outside post, made steady progress in the lane while catching front running longshot Old Time Revival(clearly second best), and won geared down by a bit less than three lengths under Junior Alvarado. Post time favorite Free Drop Billy was best of the rest in 3rd, and Firenze Fire ended up an even 4th. The latter has now accumulated 29 Derby points, but 25 of those points were captured in one-turn mile events. He goes next in the Wood Memorial, but he has always had stamina concerns, and after back-to-back losses, he drops off my list. I do not know how strong this one-turn prep was, but Enticed looked good winning, has quality connections, and a nice pedigree. He has enough points to make the Derby gate for Kiaran McLaughlin.
Tampa Bay Derby (Tampa Bay Downs, 3-10-18; 138 Final Rating)
19-1 longshot Quip picked up 50 Derby points in a game one-length tally over Sam F. Davis winner Flameaway and front runner World of Trouble. Vino Rosso was a flat 4th for Todd Pletcher, and was followed by Tiz Mischief and Untamed Domain. The winner was making his first start since finishing 7th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill last fall. This race did not look strong visually, and reminded me a bit of the first two 50 point races (Risen Star, Fountain of Youth).
There are a pair of Derby points races on the docket for Saturday, March 17. The big one is the Rebel Stakes (winner to receive 50 Derby points) at Oaklawn Park. A large field in expected for the Hot Springs, Arkansas affair, including Combatant, Title Ready, and Zing Zang for trainer Steve Asmussen. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas plans to start Southwest show finisher Sporting Chance, and he drilled a half-mile bullet in :47.00 (1/21) at Oaklawn on March 12. Solomini will almost certainly be the Rebel favorite for Bob Baffert. Others targeting the race include Curlin’s Honor, Higher Power, and Magnum Moon.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks (winner to receive 20 Derby points) at Turfway Park, formerly known as the Sprial Stakes, is expected to have a large field, including last year’s G3 Grey Stakes hero Archaggelos. Choo Choo and Mugaritz are expected to ship in from Golden Gate Fields, and former “exceptional eleven” member Hollywood Staris scheduled to start for trainer Dale Romans. The top local hopes are Magicalmeister, Sky Promise, and Arawak.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Risen Star upsetter Bravazo (54 Derby points) breezed a 5f bullet in 1:00.00 (1/8) at Oaklawn Park on March 12. He will complete his Derby preparations in the Louisiana Derby on March 24.
Combatant (12 Derby points), runner-up in his last three Derby points races, breezed 4f in :51.60 (42/52) at Oaklawn Park on March 11. He goes next in the Rebel Stakes on March 17.
Mississippi (zero Derby points) continues his steady work pattern since finishing 2nd in an optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4. He has breezed four times since that race, most recently logging a half-mile in :50.20 (50/77) at Palm Meadows on March 10.
I am very sad to report that Smarty Jones winner Mourinho had to be euthanized followed a training accident at Santa Anita Park on March 12. According to trainer Bob Baffert, he suffered a severe sesamoid fracture in a front leg. He was working in company with stablemate Restoring Hope (Sunland Derby hopeful).
Southwest hero My Boy Jack (12 Derby points) went 5f in 1:01.60 (29/61) at Santa Anita for trainer Keith Desormeaux on March 10. The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 24 is the next race on his dance card.
Looking at the international road to the Derby, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn is heading to the UAE Derby after winning the Patton Stakes at Dundalk (Ireland) on March 9. Trainer Aidan O’Brien would like to run him at Churchill on the first Saturday in May.
Gronkoswki, another overseas runner, captured the Road to the Derby Condition Stakes at Kempton Park (Great Britain) on March 7. Trainer Jeremy Noseda plans to bring his to the US to compete in the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes.
In a late developing story, Withers winner Avery Island, my sixth-ranked Derby contender last week, came up lame after his most recent workout on March 9 and is currently being evaluated at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Kentucky. This is the worst possible time to have any type of physical setback, and here is hoping for some good news and a speedy recovery.
Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Comments: He has been my one and only top ranked Derby contender since I started my list at the end of the Del Mar summer meet last September. I did not lose faith in the 2-time grade one winner following his wide 3rd in the BC Juvenile, and I was not overly concerned when he came up with a minor muscle pull earlier this year. He did everything asked of him and more while not fully cranked in the San Felipe, and he should be ready to roll in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Derby Points (64)
(2) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.00 (1/61) at Santa Anita Park on March 10.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and BC Juvenile runner-up had his number taken down in the Los Al Futurity (placed 3rd behind McKinzie and Instilled Regard). He got sick earlier this winter and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. He has been working steadily all month and his last four moves were bullets. The Baffert/Zayat Stables runner is taking the American Pharoah path to the Derby, beginning with the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 17.
Derby Points (14)
(3) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Comments: He has turned into a tough street fighter for Baffert. He can be brilliant, like his big debut win, and his razor sharp off the pace tally in the G3 Sham. In his other two races, he battled hard throughout and was placed first via DQ in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and he gave Bolt d’Oro all he could handle and had his number taken down after playing bumper cars with that foe in deep stretch in the San Felipe (143 Final Rating). He is in need of a less eventful race in his final Derby prep, and he is definitely one of the top Derby contenders at this stage. The Santa Anita Derby might be his next race.
Derby Points (40)
(4) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.99 (3/12) at Palm Beach Downs on March 10.
Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. The Florida Derby on March 31 will be his last Kentucky Derby prep race.
Derby Points (10)
(5) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: Maybe too much was expected of him in his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He definitely did not deliver the goods that day in a flat show finish, and it looking increasingly likely that he needed the race. Granted, he was not the same horse in his sophomore bow that we saw in the BC Juvenile, but, on a positive note, he has a solid 2-year-old foundation, is in good shape on the Derby points list, and appears healthy and sound. He could easily show much more in his next start, which will likely be the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7. He is one of four remaining original "exceptional eleven" members from last September, along with Bolt d'Oro, Solomini, and Free Drop Billy.
Derby Points (34)
(6) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (1/1) at Bridlewood Farm on March 10.
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp turf/dirt victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on 12-2-17. He made his first start as a 3-year-old in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. He rallied into tepid splits in the Davis and finished a respectable 2nd in a race he likely needed. It looks like his connections have settled on the March 31 Florida Derby for his final Derby prep, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will replace Manny Franco in the irons. He really a top two finish at the end of the month to secure a starting spot under the Twin Spires.
Derby Points (14)
(7) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.39 (7/12) at Palm Beach Downs on March 10.
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and landing the show in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. The lightly raced colt most likely needs a top two finish in his final Derby prep (probably the Louisiana Derby).
Derby Points (10)
(8) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 138 (Risen Star Stakes, FG, 2-17-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:03.40 (77/103) at Santa Anita Park on March 13.
Comments: He burst onto the Derby trail scene after a troubled, close-up 3rd (placed 2nd via disqualification) in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 13. He ended up a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star Stakes last time and will have to run much better in his final Derby prep (Louisiana Derby or Santa Anita Derby).
Derby Points (19)
(9) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s impressive debut winner was back in three weeks, and made short work of his four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns at Santa Anita Park on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He is obviously very talented but the late bloomer is scrambling to make the gate on the first Saturday in May. He will get one shot in an upcoming Derby points race, and the Santa Anita Derby might be the race he ends up targeting.
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: You can go back to his G1 Champagne show finish to see his quality. He was part of contested pace that day, dropped back to stalk, and held the show in a game effort. He followed that up with a gritty win in a productive renewal of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, Bravazo). He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his G2 Holy Bull return, but bounced back in a big way from the outside post in the G3 Gotham on March 10. It looks like the Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep. He is bred to handle nine furlongs at the very least, and might be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: Last year’s G1 Breeders’ Futurity (140 Final Rating) hero at Keeneland began his sophomore campaign with a clear place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to the Holy Bull, and he matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating that day. He entered the Fountain of Youth Stakes but scratched in favor of the Gotham Stakes (one mile) at Aqueduct on March 10. In the Gotham, he rallied to finish a clear 3rd (another 140 Final Rating) while no match to the top two finishers. He was part of my original “exceptional eleven” last September, so I have a soft spot for him, plus his sire Union Rags was my 2012 Derby-Belmont horse. It appears that Free Drop Billy is a notch below the best, and his preferred distance is anyone’s guess. He will wrap up his road to the Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bravazo - 54 points, (13) Promises Fulfilled - 52 points, (14) Quip - 50 points, (15) Flameaway - 30 points, (16) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (17) Snapper Sinclair - 22 points, (18) Strike Power - 20 points, (19) Combatant - 12 points, (20) My Boy Jack - 12 points.
Robert Lewis Stakes winner Lombo shot straight to the front in the San Felipe, but McKinzie was all over him from the get-go under Mike Smith. Bolt d’Oro tucked in behind the early leaders from the inside post under Javier Castellano.
McKinzie took a short lead over the tiring Lombo, and Bolt d’Oro made an eye-catching 3-wide move around the far turn. Turning for home, Bolt d’Oro bumped with McKinzie, and the latter returned the favor in deep stretch under left hand whipping from Smith. McKinzie prevailed by a head, with Bolt d’Oro 6+ lengths in front of show finisher Kanthaka. Hold all tickets!
The stewards took a look at the two bumping incidents, and they unanimously felt that the one in deep stretch may have cost Bolt d’Oro a winning chance, so they reversed the order of finish and put the Mick Ruis trainee on top. I cannot argue with a decision that could have gone either way. The top two ran huge, and they are both top tier Kentucky Derby contenders at this stage.
Bolt d’Oro was making his first start since the 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He was originally supposed to begin his sophomore campaign in the San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 10, but a minor muscle pull derailed those plans. Trainer Mick Ruis said that he was about 80% fit for the San Felipe, and he should be wound as tight as a drum for the Santa Anita Derby.
What is it with McKinzie and disqualifications? He was placed first over stablemate Solomini in the Los Al Futurity, and he had his number taken down in the San Felipe. He is certainly battled-tested after the aforementioned two races, and he easily won his debut and the Sham Stakes (blinkers off). He reminds me a bit of Silver Charm.
Let’s look back at the other two Kentucky Derby points races from March 10:
Gotham Stakes (Aqueduct, 3-10-18; 161 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Enticed was a flat 4th in his 3-year-old bow in the Holy Bull, but the Gotham was a whole new ballgame. He stalked wide from the outside post, made steady progress in the lane while catching front running longshot Old Time Revival(clearly second best), and won geared down by a bit less than three lengths under Junior Alvarado. Post time favorite Free Drop Billy was best of the rest in 3rd, and Firenze Fire ended up an even 4th. The latter has now accumulated 29 Derby points, but 25 of those points were captured in one-turn mile events. He goes next in the Wood Memorial, but he has always had stamina concerns, and after back-to-back losses, he drops off my list. I do not know how strong this one-turn prep was, but Enticed looked good winning, has quality connections, and a nice pedigree. He has enough points to make the Derby gate for Kiaran McLaughlin.
Tampa Bay Derby (Tampa Bay Downs, 3-10-18; 138 Final Rating)
19-1 longshot Quip picked up 50 Derby points in a game one-length tally over Sam F. Davis winner Flameaway and front runner World of Trouble. Vino Rosso was a flat 4th for Todd Pletcher, and was followed by Tiz Mischief and Untamed Domain. The winner was making his first start since finishing 7th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill last fall. This race did not look strong visually, and reminded me a bit of the first two 50 point races (Risen Star, Fountain of Youth).
There are a pair of Derby points races on the docket for Saturday, March 17. The big one is the Rebel Stakes (winner to receive 50 Derby points) at Oaklawn Park. A large field in expected for the Hot Springs, Arkansas affair, including Combatant, Title Ready, and Zing Zang for trainer Steve Asmussen. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas plans to start Southwest show finisher Sporting Chance, and he drilled a half-mile bullet in :47.00 (1/21) at Oaklawn on March 12. Solomini will almost certainly be the Rebel favorite for Bob Baffert. Others targeting the race include Curlin’s Honor, Higher Power, and Magnum Moon.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks (winner to receive 20 Derby points) at Turfway Park, formerly known as the Sprial Stakes, is expected to have a large field, including last year’s G3 Grey Stakes hero Archaggelos. Choo Choo and Mugaritz are expected to ship in from Golden Gate Fields, and former “exceptional eleven” member Hollywood Staris scheduled to start for trainer Dale Romans. The top local hopes are Magicalmeister, Sky Promise, and Arawak.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Risen Star upsetter Bravazo (54 Derby points) breezed a 5f bullet in 1:00.00 (1/8) at Oaklawn Park on March 12. He will complete his Derby preparations in the Louisiana Derby on March 24.
Combatant (12 Derby points), runner-up in his last three Derby points races, breezed 4f in :51.60 (42/52) at Oaklawn Park on March 11. He goes next in the Rebel Stakes on March 17.
Mississippi (zero Derby points) continues his steady work pattern since finishing 2nd in an optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4. He has breezed four times since that race, most recently logging a half-mile in :50.20 (50/77) at Palm Meadows on March 10.
I am very sad to report that Smarty Jones winner Mourinho had to be euthanized followed a training accident at Santa Anita Park on March 12. According to trainer Bob Baffert, he suffered a severe sesamoid fracture in a front leg. He was working in company with stablemate Restoring Hope (Sunland Derby hopeful).
Southwest hero My Boy Jack (12 Derby points) went 5f in 1:01.60 (29/61) at Santa Anita for trainer Keith Desormeaux on March 10. The Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 24 is the next race on his dance card.
Looking at the international road to the Derby, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn is heading to the UAE Derby after winning the Patton Stakes at Dundalk (Ireland) on March 9. Trainer Aidan O’Brien would like to run him at Churchill on the first Saturday in May.
Gronkoswki, another overseas runner, captured the Road to the Derby Condition Stakes at Kempton Park (Great Britain) on March 7. Trainer Jeremy Noseda plans to bring his to the US to compete in the Wood Memorial or Blue Grass Stakes.
In a late developing story, Withers winner Avery Island, my sixth-ranked Derby contender last week, came up lame after his most recent workout on March 9 and is currently being evaluated at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital in Kentucky. This is the worst possible time to have any type of physical setback, and here is hoping for some good news and a speedy recovery.
Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Comments: He has been my one and only top ranked Derby contender since I started my list at the end of the Del Mar summer meet last September. I did not lose faith in the 2-time grade one winner following his wide 3rd in the BC Juvenile, and I was not overly concerned when he came up with a minor muscle pull earlier this year. He did everything asked of him and more while not fully cranked in the San Felipe, and he should be ready to roll in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Derby Points (64)
(2) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.00 (1/61) at Santa Anita Park on March 10.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and BC Juvenile runner-up had his number taken down in the Los Al Futurity (placed 3rd behind McKinzie and Instilled Regard). He got sick earlier this winter and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. He has been working steadily all month and his last four moves were bullets. The Baffert/Zayat Stables runner is taking the American Pharoah path to the Derby, beginning with the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 17.
Derby Points (14)
(3) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Comments: He has turned into a tough street fighter for Baffert. He can be brilliant, like his big debut win, and his razor sharp off the pace tally in the G3 Sham. In his other two races, he battled hard throughout and was placed first via DQ in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and he gave Bolt d’Oro all he could handle and had his number taken down after playing bumper cars with that foe in deep stretch in the San Felipe (143 Final Rating). He is in need of a less eventful race in his final Derby prep, and he is definitely one of the top Derby contenders at this stage. The Santa Anita Derby might be his next race.
Derby Points (40)
(4) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.99 (3/12) at Palm Beach Downs on March 10.
Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. The Florida Derby on March 31 will be his last Kentucky Derby prep race.
Derby Points (10)
(5) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: Maybe too much was expected of him in his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He definitely did not deliver the goods that day in a flat show finish, and it looking increasingly likely that he needed the race. Granted, he was not the same horse in his sophomore bow that we saw in the BC Juvenile, but, on a positive note, he has a solid 2-year-old foundation, is in good shape on the Derby points list, and appears healthy and sound. He could easily show much more in his next start, which will likely be the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7. He is one of four remaining original "exceptional eleven" members from last September, along with Bolt d'Oro, Solomini, and Free Drop Billy.
Derby Points (34)
(6) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (1/1) at Bridlewood Farm on March 10.
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp turf/dirt victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on 12-2-17. He made his first start as a 3-year-old in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. He rallied into tepid splits in the Davis and finished a respectable 2nd in a race he likely needed. It looks like his connections have settled on the March 31 Florida Derby for his final Derby prep, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will replace Manny Franco in the irons. He really a top two finish at the end of the month to secure a starting spot under the Twin Spires.
Derby Points (14)
(7) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.39 (7/12) at Palm Beach Downs on March 10.
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and landing the show in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. The lightly raced colt most likely needs a top two finish in his final Derby prep (probably the Louisiana Derby).
Derby Points (10)
(8) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 138 (Risen Star Stakes, FG, 2-17-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:03.40 (77/103) at Santa Anita Park on March 13.
Comments: He burst onto the Derby trail scene after a troubled, close-up 3rd (placed 2nd via disqualification) in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 13. He ended up a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star Stakes last time and will have to run much better in his final Derby prep (Louisiana Derby or Santa Anita Derby).
Derby Points (19)
(9) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s impressive debut winner was back in three weeks, and made short work of his four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns at Santa Anita Park on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He is obviously very talented but the late bloomer is scrambling to make the gate on the first Saturday in May. He will get one shot in an upcoming Derby points race, and the Santa Anita Derby might be the race he ends up targeting.
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: You can go back to his G1 Champagne show finish to see his quality. He was part of contested pace that day, dropped back to stalk, and held the show in a game effort. He followed that up with a gritty win in a productive renewal of the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, Bravazo). He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his G2 Holy Bull return, but bounced back in a big way from the outside post in the G3 Gotham on March 10. It looks like the Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep. He is bred to handle nine furlongs at the very least, and might be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: Last year’s G1 Breeders’ Futurity (140 Final Rating) hero at Keeneland began his sophomore campaign with a clear place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to the Holy Bull, and he matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating that day. He entered the Fountain of Youth Stakes but scratched in favor of the Gotham Stakes (one mile) at Aqueduct on March 10. In the Gotham, he rallied to finish a clear 3rd (another 140 Final Rating) while no match to the top two finishers. He was part of my original “exceptional eleven” last September, so I have a soft spot for him, plus his sire Union Rags was my 2012 Derby-Belmont horse. It appears that Free Drop Billy is a notch below the best, and his preferred distance is anyone’s guess. He will wrap up his road to the Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bravazo - 54 points, (13) Promises Fulfilled - 52 points, (14) Quip - 50 points, (15) Flameaway - 30 points, (16) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (17) Snapper Sinclair - 22 points, (18) Strike Power - 20 points, (19) Combatant - 12 points, (20) My Boy Jack - 12 points.
Saturday, March 10, 2018
San Felipe Stakes 2018 Video featuring Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie
Check out my San Felipe Stakes video featuring Bolt d'Oro and McKinzie, and watch this video for a special promo code offer from Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2018 Report: Bolt d'Oro, McKinzie Square Off in San Felipe Stakes
Bolt d’Oro, my top ranked Kentucky Derby 2018 contender since I began my list last September, makes his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10.
Bolt d’Oro was originally slated to make his sophomore debut in the San Vicente at seven furlongs in February, but a minor muscle pull altered those plans. He has worked seven times this year in advance of the San Felipe, and he should be fit and ready to roll for trainer Mick Ruis.
Victor Espinoza was aboard for Bolt d’Oro’s final workout for the San Felipe, and drilled a four furlong bullet with a strong gallop out on March 5.
The winner of the San Felipe Stakes will receive 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, so it is basically a win and you’re in event. The runner-up will get 20 points, with 10 points going to the show finisher, and 5 points for finishing 4th.
In addition to Bolt d’Oro, the San Felipe is also expected to attract Aquila, Ayacara(Keith Desormeaux), San Vicente winner Kanthaka, Robert Lewis hero Lombo, Sham winner McKinzie (Bob Baffert), Peace (Richard Mandella), and Sphene. Restoring Hope could also represent the Baffert barn.
McKinzie is the other big name in the San Felipe. His 3-for-3 record includes graded wins in the Los Al Futurity (placed first via disqualification) and the Sham Stakes. In the Sham, he removed blinkers and ran the best race of his career, and he looked good working for the San Felipe on March 4.
The Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct will also be contested on March 10. Here are the probable starters, as of 3-4-18: Afleet Ascent (Jerry Hollendorfer); Beautiful Shot(Keith Desormeaux); Dial Operator (Jason Servis); Firenze Fire (Jason Servis); Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans); Nine Route (Jeremiah Englehart); Quip (Rodolphe Brisset); Whereshetoldmetogo (Anthony Pecoraro. Possible: A Different Style (John Servis); Cove Blue (Romans); Diamond King (John Servis); Enticed (Kiaran McLaughlin).
The other Derby points race on March 10 is the Tampa Bay Derby. Likely starters include Sam F. Davis winner and show finisher Flameaway and Vino Rosso. Untamed Domain is expected to switch surfaces for Graham Motion, and Holy Bull show finisher Tiz Mischief is also expected to start for Dale Romans.
Let’s look back at the recently completed Kentucky Derby points races:
Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gulfstream Park, 3-3-18, 146 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Promises Fulfilled was sent to the lead and cleared the field from the outside post under Irad Ortiz Jr. Strike Power sat a length back in 2nd, and Good Magic was another length back in 3rd. That basically sums up the 2018 edition of the Fountain of Youth. The top three finishers ran in place throughout, and none of the other six entrants made a dent. Promises Fulfilled won by 2.25 lengths over Strike Power (138 Final Rating), with 2-year-old champ Good Magic (132 Final Rating) another couple of lengths back in 3rd. In a recurring theme, I do not know what to make of these results. This event was a carbon copy of the first 50-20-10-5 points race this year, the Risen Star. In that affair, the top four had a parade, with Bravazo leading the way. If this prep trend continues, we could be looking at a pace meltdown on the first Saturday in May.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Risen Star hero Bravazo had his first workout since upsetting that event for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He went a half-mile in :49 (19/99) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 26, and worked again at that same venue on March 5 (5f in 1:01.80) He will wrap up his Kentucky Derby preparations in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 24. Lukas also sent out Southwest show finisher Sporting Chance for a spin around the Oaklawn oval on March 5. He went a mile in 1:41.40 (1/1) and will probably go next in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. The trainer has the Sunland Derby penciled in for recent Oaklawn Park allowance place finisher Transgress. The latter breezed a half-mile in :48.80 (14/103) at Oaklawn on Feb. 27.
Combatant, runner-up in the Remington Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Southwest, returned to the work tab on March 4 with a 5f move in 1:01.80 (10/24) at Oaklawn Park for Steve Asmussen. He is expected to join stablemates Title Ready and Zing Zang in the Rebel.
Enticed, gearing up for a likely start in the Gotham at Aqueduct on March 10, breezed 5f in 1:01.85 (3/9) at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida on March 2. Kiaran McLaughlin trains the well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro for Godolphin.
Remington Springboard Mile hero Greyvitos is making a speedy recovery after having a bone chip removed for trainer Adam Kitchingman. He had his first workout of the year at Del Mar on Feb. 26 (3f in :37.20), and came right back with a half-mile move in :50 on March 5. He is playing catch up, and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 14 might be his first start of the season.
Sharp debut winner Justify had his first workout since his Santa Anita Park unveiling on Feb. 18 (146 Final Rating). He went five furlongs in 1:01.40 (33/55) at the Great Race Place on Feb. 26, and came back to work 5f in 1:00.80 (29/106) at Santa Anita on March 5. The exciting Bob Baffert runner is expected to ship to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby on March 25. He might be joined in the Sunland Derby by Smarty Jones hero Mourinho, but the latter could also return to Oaklawn for the Rebel.
Mississippi has finished 2nd in his last two allowance routes at Gulfstream Park. He breezed a 5f in 1:00.55 (2/21) at Palm Meadows on March 3 for trainer Mark Casse. He is expected to show up in a Derby points race next.
Late running Southwest winner My Boy Jack is back in Southern California for Keith Desormeaux. He traveled an easy three furlongs in :39.60 (6/8) at Santa Anita Park (dirt training) on March 3. He might head to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby next.
Sharp dirt route maiden winner Restoring Hope worked six furlongs in 1:11.60 (2/3) for Bob Baffert on March 4. He could end up in Saturday’s San Felipe.
Holy Bull show finisher Tiz Mischief had his third work since his 3-year-old bow. He breezed 5f in 1:00.68 (6/46) at Gulfstream Park on March 3. He is slated to go next in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10.
Vino Rosso had his second move since landing the show in the Sam F. Davis, He breezed 4f in :49.58 (12/26) at Palm Beach Downs on March 3 for trainer Todd Pletcher. The Tampa Bay Derby is his next assignment.
Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :46.40 (1/95) at Santa Anita Park on March 5.
Comments: The 2-time grade one-winning juvenile has had seven works this year (3 bullets) following a minor muscle pull. The BC Juvenile show finisher appears poised to fire a big shot off the bench in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10. Javier Castellano has the riding assignment.
Derby Points (14)
(2) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:11.40 (1/6) at Santa Anita Park on March 4.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and BC Juvenile runner-up had his number taken down in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (placed 3rd via disqualification). He got sick earlier this winter and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. He has been working steadily all month and his last three moves were bullets. He is expected to make his first start of 2018 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 17.
Derby Points (14)
(3) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:23.80 (1/2) at Santa Anita Park on March 4.
Comments: He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6. He got back to work on Jan. 21 and is targeting the San Felipe on March 10.
Derby Points (20)
(4) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.13 (3/26) at Palm Beach Downs on March 3.
Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. He will have one more race before the first Saturday in May, and that would be the Florida Derby on March 31.
Derby Points (10)
(5) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: Much was expected in his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth, and he did not deliver the goods in a bit of a flat show finish. It is possible that he needed the race, and he could certainly move up next time, but this was not the same horse that we saw in the BC Juvenile. On the positive side, he has a solid 2-year-old foundation, is in good shape on the Derby points list, and appears healthy and sound. He will need to show more late interest in his final Derby prep, which will likely be the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(6) AVERY ISLAND (Street Sense - Kinda Spicy, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin, LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Withers Stakes, AQU, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (12/86) at Palm Meadows on March 3.
Comments: He had a productive juvenile campaign with a win in the G2 Nashua and a place finish in the G2 Remsen. He sat a nice outside pressing trip and was a couple of lengths clear of Firenze Fire in his Feb. 3 Withers return at nine furlongs. He has fine connections, a strong pedigree, and early/pressing versatility. The March 24 Louisiana Derby will be his final points race before the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (14)
(7) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.55 (28/46) at Gulfstream Park on March 3.
Comments: The G1 Breeders’ Futurity hero put his BC Juvenile flop behind him with a solid place finish in his sophomore return in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to his 3-year-old bow and should be fitter next time. He matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating at the Gulf on Feb. 3. He entered the Fountain of Youth Stakes but scratched in favor of the Gotham Stakes (one mile) at Aqueduct on Saturday, March 10.
Derby Points (14)
(8) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (1/3) at Bridlewood Farm on March 3.
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp surface switching victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on 12-2-17. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and finished a solid if unspectacular 2nd in his comeback race in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. He rallied into tepid splits in the Davis and was not fully cranked for his first start of 2018. His final Derby prep race options include the Louisiana Derby on March 24, the Florida Derby on March 31, or the Wood Memorial a week later.
Derby Points (14)
(9) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.21 (6/26) at Palm Beach Downs on March 3.
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park and finished an okay 3rd in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb. 17. The lightly raced colt only has time for one more Derby prep (possibly the Louisiana Derby), and will need a big effort to make the gate on the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (10)
(10) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 138 (Risen Star Stakes, FG, 2-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.80 (54/75) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Comments: After earning his diploma in a dirt route at Santa Anita on 10-29-17, he was placed 2nd via disqualification in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. He ended up an even 4th in the Risen Star Stakes and will have to run much better in his final Derby prep (Louisiana Derby or Santa Anita Derby).
Derby Points (19)
(11) FIRENZE FIRE (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Jerome Stakes, AQU, 1-13-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :50.69 (88/100) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on March 4.
Comments: He is 4-for-5 in one-turn races (won G3 Sanford, G1 Champagne, and listed Jerome), and 0-for-2 in routes. In his last start in the G3 Withers at a mile and an eighth, he was a grinding 2nd in an okay effort (144 Final Rating). He never misses a dance, and his next stop is the Gotham Stakes on March 10.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bravazo, (13) Promises Fulfilled, (14) Combatant, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Justify, (17) My Boy Jack, (18) Mississippi, (19) Restoring Hope, (20) Vino Rosso
Bolt d’Oro was originally slated to make his sophomore debut in the San Vicente at seven furlongs in February, but a minor muscle pull altered those plans. He has worked seven times this year in advance of the San Felipe, and he should be fit and ready to roll for trainer Mick Ruis.
Victor Espinoza was aboard for Bolt d’Oro’s final workout for the San Felipe, and drilled a four furlong bullet with a strong gallop out on March 5.
The winner of the San Felipe Stakes will receive 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, so it is basically a win and you’re in event. The runner-up will get 20 points, with 10 points going to the show finisher, and 5 points for finishing 4th.
In addition to Bolt d’Oro, the San Felipe is also expected to attract Aquila, Ayacara(Keith Desormeaux), San Vicente winner Kanthaka, Robert Lewis hero Lombo, Sham winner McKinzie (Bob Baffert), Peace (Richard Mandella), and Sphene. Restoring Hope could also represent the Baffert barn.
McKinzie is the other big name in the San Felipe. His 3-for-3 record includes graded wins in the Los Al Futurity (placed first via disqualification) and the Sham Stakes. In the Sham, he removed blinkers and ran the best race of his career, and he looked good working for the San Felipe on March 4.
The Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct will also be contested on March 10. Here are the probable starters, as of 3-4-18: Afleet Ascent (Jerry Hollendorfer); Beautiful Shot(Keith Desormeaux); Dial Operator (Jason Servis); Firenze Fire (Jason Servis); Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans); Nine Route (Jeremiah Englehart); Quip (Rodolphe Brisset); Whereshetoldmetogo (Anthony Pecoraro. Possible: A Different Style (John Servis); Cove Blue (Romans); Diamond King (John Servis); Enticed (Kiaran McLaughlin).
The other Derby points race on March 10 is the Tampa Bay Derby. Likely starters include Sam F. Davis winner and show finisher Flameaway and Vino Rosso. Untamed Domain is expected to switch surfaces for Graham Motion, and Holy Bull show finisher Tiz Mischief is also expected to start for Dale Romans.
Let’s look back at the recently completed Kentucky Derby points races:
Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gulfstream Park, 3-3-18, 146 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Promises Fulfilled was sent to the lead and cleared the field from the outside post under Irad Ortiz Jr. Strike Power sat a length back in 2nd, and Good Magic was another length back in 3rd. That basically sums up the 2018 edition of the Fountain of Youth. The top three finishers ran in place throughout, and none of the other six entrants made a dent. Promises Fulfilled won by 2.25 lengths over Strike Power (138 Final Rating), with 2-year-old champ Good Magic (132 Final Rating) another couple of lengths back in 3rd. In a recurring theme, I do not know what to make of these results. This event was a carbon copy of the first 50-20-10-5 points race this year, the Risen Star. In that affair, the top four had a parade, with Bravazo leading the way. If this prep trend continues, we could be looking at a pace meltdown on the first Saturday in May.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Risen Star hero Bravazo had his first workout since upsetting that event for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He went a half-mile in :49 (19/99) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 26, and worked again at that same venue on March 5 (5f in 1:01.80) He will wrap up his Kentucky Derby preparations in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 24. Lukas also sent out Southwest show finisher Sporting Chance for a spin around the Oaklawn oval on March 5. He went a mile in 1:41.40 (1/1) and will probably go next in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. The trainer has the Sunland Derby penciled in for recent Oaklawn Park allowance place finisher Transgress. The latter breezed a half-mile in :48.80 (14/103) at Oaklawn on Feb. 27.
Combatant, runner-up in the Remington Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Southwest, returned to the work tab on March 4 with a 5f move in 1:01.80 (10/24) at Oaklawn Park for Steve Asmussen. He is expected to join stablemates Title Ready and Zing Zang in the Rebel.
Enticed, gearing up for a likely start in the Gotham at Aqueduct on March 10, breezed 5f in 1:01.85 (3/9) at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida on March 2. Kiaran McLaughlin trains the well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro for Godolphin.
Remington Springboard Mile hero Greyvitos is making a speedy recovery after having a bone chip removed for trainer Adam Kitchingman. He had his first workout of the year at Del Mar on Feb. 26 (3f in :37.20), and came right back with a half-mile move in :50 on March 5. He is playing catch up, and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 14 might be his first start of the season.
Sharp debut winner Justify had his first workout since his Santa Anita Park unveiling on Feb. 18 (146 Final Rating). He went five furlongs in 1:01.40 (33/55) at the Great Race Place on Feb. 26, and came back to work 5f in 1:00.80 (29/106) at Santa Anita on March 5. The exciting Bob Baffert runner is expected to ship to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby on March 25. He might be joined in the Sunland Derby by Smarty Jones hero Mourinho, but the latter could also return to Oaklawn for the Rebel.
Mississippi has finished 2nd in his last two allowance routes at Gulfstream Park. He breezed a 5f in 1:00.55 (2/21) at Palm Meadows on March 3 for trainer Mark Casse. He is expected to show up in a Derby points race next.
Late running Southwest winner My Boy Jack is back in Southern California for Keith Desormeaux. He traveled an easy three furlongs in :39.60 (6/8) at Santa Anita Park (dirt training) on March 3. He might head to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby next.
Sharp dirt route maiden winner Restoring Hope worked six furlongs in 1:11.60 (2/3) for Bob Baffert on March 4. He could end up in Saturday’s San Felipe.
Holy Bull show finisher Tiz Mischief had his third work since his 3-year-old bow. He breezed 5f in 1:00.68 (6/46) at Gulfstream Park on March 3. He is slated to go next in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10.
Vino Rosso had his second move since landing the show in the Sam F. Davis, He breezed 4f in :49.58 (12/26) at Palm Beach Downs on March 3 for trainer Todd Pletcher. The Tampa Bay Derby is his next assignment.
Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :46.40 (1/95) at Santa Anita Park on March 5.
Comments: The 2-time grade one-winning juvenile has had seven works this year (3 bullets) following a minor muscle pull. The BC Juvenile show finisher appears poised to fire a big shot off the bench in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10. Javier Castellano has the riding assignment.
Derby Points (14)
(2) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:11.40 (1/6) at Santa Anita Park on March 4.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and BC Juvenile runner-up had his number taken down in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (placed 3rd via disqualification). He got sick earlier this winter and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. He has been working steadily all month and his last three moves were bullets. He is expected to make his first start of 2018 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 17.
Derby Points (14)
(3) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:23.80 (1/2) at Santa Anita Park on March 4.
Comments: He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6. He got back to work on Jan. 21 and is targeting the San Felipe on March 10.
Derby Points (20)
(4) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.13 (3/26) at Palm Beach Downs on March 3.
Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. He will have one more race before the first Saturday in May, and that would be the Florida Derby on March 31.
Derby Points (10)
(5) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: Much was expected in his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth, and he did not deliver the goods in a bit of a flat show finish. It is possible that he needed the race, and he could certainly move up next time, but this was not the same horse that we saw in the BC Juvenile. On the positive side, he has a solid 2-year-old foundation, is in good shape on the Derby points list, and appears healthy and sound. He will need to show more late interest in his final Derby prep, which will likely be the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(6) AVERY ISLAND (Street Sense - Kinda Spicy, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin, LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Withers Stakes, AQU, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (12/86) at Palm Meadows on March 3.
Comments: He had a productive juvenile campaign with a win in the G2 Nashua and a place finish in the G2 Remsen. He sat a nice outside pressing trip and was a couple of lengths clear of Firenze Fire in his Feb. 3 Withers return at nine furlongs. He has fine connections, a strong pedigree, and early/pressing versatility. The March 24 Louisiana Derby will be his final points race before the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (14)
(7) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.55 (28/46) at Gulfstream Park on March 3.
Comments: The G1 Breeders’ Futurity hero put his BC Juvenile flop behind him with a solid place finish in his sophomore return in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to his 3-year-old bow and should be fitter next time. He matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating at the Gulf on Feb. 3. He entered the Fountain of Youth Stakes but scratched in favor of the Gotham Stakes (one mile) at Aqueduct on Saturday, March 10.
Derby Points (14)
(8) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (1/3) at Bridlewood Farm on March 3.
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp surface switching victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on 12-2-17. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and finished a solid if unspectacular 2nd in his comeback race in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. He rallied into tepid splits in the Davis and was not fully cranked for his first start of 2018. His final Derby prep race options include the Louisiana Derby on March 24, the Florida Derby on March 31, or the Wood Memorial a week later.
Derby Points (14)
(9) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.21 (6/26) at Palm Beach Downs on March 3.
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park and finished an okay 3rd in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb. 17. The lightly raced colt only has time for one more Derby prep (possibly the Louisiana Derby), and will need a big effort to make the gate on the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (10)
(10) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 138 (Risen Star Stakes, FG, 2-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.80 (54/75) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Comments: After earning his diploma in a dirt route at Santa Anita on 10-29-17, he was placed 2nd via disqualification in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. He ended up an even 4th in the Risen Star Stakes and will have to run much better in his final Derby prep (Louisiana Derby or Santa Anita Derby).
Derby Points (19)
(11) FIRENZE FIRE (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Jerome Stakes, AQU, 1-13-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :50.69 (88/100) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on March 4.
Comments: He is 4-for-5 in one-turn races (won G3 Sanford, G1 Champagne, and listed Jerome), and 0-for-2 in routes. In his last start in the G3 Withers at a mile and an eighth, he was a grinding 2nd in an okay effort (144 Final Rating). He never misses a dance, and his next stop is the Gotham Stakes on March 10.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bravazo, (13) Promises Fulfilled, (14) Combatant, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Justify, (17) My Boy Jack, (18) Mississippi, (19) Restoring Hope, (20) Vino Rosso
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