Saturday, March 10, 2018

Kentucky Derby 2018 Report: Bolt d'Oro, McKinzie Square Off in San Felipe Stakes

Bolt d’Oro, my top ranked Kentucky Derby 2018 contender since I began my list last September, makes his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10.



Bolt d’Oro was originally slated to make his sophomore debut in the San Vicente at seven furlongs in February, but a minor muscle pull altered those plans. He has worked seven times this year in advance of the San Felipe, and he should be fit and ready to roll for trainer Mick Ruis.

Victor Espinoza was aboard for Bolt d’Oro’s final workout for the San Felipe, and drilled a four furlong bullet with a strong gallop out on March 5.  

The winner of the San Felipe Stakes will receive 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, so it is basically a win and you’re in event. The runner-up will get 20 points, with 10 points going to the show finisher, and 5 points for finishing 4th. 

In addition to Bolt d’Oro, the San Felipe is also expected to attract AquilaAyacara(Keith Desormeaux), San Vicente winner Kanthaka, Robert Lewis hero Lombo, Sham winner McKinzie (Bob Baffert), Peace (Richard Mandella), and SpheneRestoring Hope could also represent the Baffert barn.  

McKinzie is the other big name in the San Felipe. His 3-for-3 record includes graded wins in the Los Al Futurity (placed first via disqualification) and the Sham Stakes. In the Sham, he removed blinkers and ran the best race of his career, and he looked good working for the San Felipe on March 4.   

The Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct will also be contested on March 10. Here are the probable starters, as of 3-4-18: Afleet Ascent (Jerry Hollendorfer); Beautiful Shot(Keith Desormeaux); Dial Operator (Jason Servis); Firenze Fire (Jason Servis); Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans); Nine Route (Jeremiah Englehart); Quip (Rodolphe Brisset); Whereshetoldmetogo (Anthony Pecoraro. Possible: A Different Style (John Servis); Cove Blue (Romans); Diamond King (John Servis); Enticed (Kiaran McLaughlin). 

The other Derby points race on March 10 is the Tampa Bay Derby. Likely starters include Sam F. Davis winner and show finisher Flameaway and Vino RossoUntamed Domain is expected to switch surfaces for Graham Motion, and Holy Bull show finisher Tiz Mischief is also expected to start for Dale Romans. 

Let’s look back at the recently completed Kentucky Derby points races:

Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gulfstream Park, 3-3-18, 146 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)

Promises Fulfilled was sent to the lead and cleared the field from the outside post under Irad Ortiz Jr. Strike Power sat a length back in 2nd, and Good Magic was another length back in 3rd. That basically sums up the 2018 edition of the Fountain of Youth. The top three finishers ran in place throughout, and none of the other six entrants made a dent. Promises Fulfilled won by 2.25 lengths over Strike Power (138 Final Rating), with 2-year-old champ Good Magic (132 Final Rating) another couple of lengths back in 3rd. In a recurring theme, I do not know what to make of these results. This event was a carbon copy of the first 50-20-10-5 points race this year, the Risen Star. In that affair, the top four had a parade, with Bravazo leading the way. If this prep trend continues, we could be looking at a pace meltdown on the first Saturday in May. 

In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Risen Star hero Bravazo had his first workout since upsetting that event for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. He went a half-mile in :49 (19/99) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 26, and worked again at that same venue on March 5 (5f in 1:01.80) He will wrap up his Kentucky Derby preparations in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 24. Lukas also sent out Southwest show finisher Sporting Chance for a spin around the Oaklawn oval on March 5. He went a mile in 1:41.40 (1/1) and will probably go next in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. The trainer has the Sunland Derby penciled in for recent Oaklawn Park allowance place finisher Transgress. The latter breezed a half-mile in :48.80 (14/103) at Oaklawn on Feb. 27.  

Combatant, runner-up in the Remington Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Southwest, returned to the work tab on March 4 with a 5f move in 1:01.80 (10/24) at Oaklawn Park for Steve Asmussen. He is expected to join stablemates Title Ready and Zing Zang in the Rebel. 

Enticed, gearing up for a likely start in the Gotham at Aqueduct on March 10, breezed 5f in 1:01.85 (3/9) at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida on March 2. Kiaran McLaughlin trains the well-bred son of Medaglia d’Oro for Godolphin.   

Remington Springboard Mile hero Greyvitos is making a speedy recovery after having a bone chip removed for trainer Adam Kitchingman. He had his first workout of the year at Del Mar on Feb. 26 (3f in :37.20), and came right back with a half-mile move in :50 on March 5. He is playing catch up, and the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 14 might be his first start of the season. 

Sharp debut winner Justify had his first workout since his Santa Anita Park unveiling on Feb. 18 (146 Final Rating). He went five furlongs in 1:01.40 (33/55) at the Great Race Place on Feb. 26, and came back to work 5f in 1:00.80 (29/106) at Santa Anita on March 5. The exciting Bob Baffert runner is expected to ship to New Mexico for the Sunland Derby on March 25. He might be joined in the Sunland Derby by Smarty Jones hero Mourinho, but the latter could also return to Oaklawn for the Rebel.   

Mississippi has finished 2nd in his last two allowance routes at Gulfstream Park. He breezed a 5f in 1:00.55 (2/21) at Palm Meadows on March 3 for trainer Mark Casse. He is expected to show up in a Derby points race next.  

Late running Southwest winner My Boy Jack is back in Southern California for Keith Desormeaux. He traveled an easy three furlongs in :39.60 (6/8) at Santa Anita Park (dirt training) on March 3. He might head to the Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby next.  

Sharp dirt route maiden winner Restoring Hope worked six furlongs in 1:11.60 (2/3) for Bob Baffert on March 4. He could end up in Saturday’s San Felipe.     

Holy Bull show finisher Tiz Mischief had his third work since his 3-year-old bow. He breezed 5f in 1:00.68 (6/46) at Gulfstream Park on March 3. He is slated to go next in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 10.  

Vino Rosso had his second move since landing the show in the Sam F. Davis, He breezed 4f in :49.58 (12/26) at Palm Beach Downs on March 3 for trainer Todd Pletcher. The Tampa Bay Derby is his next assignment.  

Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders

(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)

Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :46.40 (1/95) at Santa Anita Park on March 5. 

Comments: The 2-time grade one-winning juvenile has had seven works this year (3 bullets) following a minor muscle pull. The BC Juvenile show finisher appears poised to fire a big shot off the bench in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10. Javier Castellano has the riding assignment.       

Derby Points (14)

(2) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:11.40 (1/6) at Santa Anita Park on March 4. 

Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and BC Juvenile runner-up had his number taken down in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (placed 3rd via disqualification). He got sick earlier this winter and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. He has been working steadily all month and his last three moves were bullets. He is expected to make his first start of 2018 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 17.     

Derby Points (14)

(3) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18) 

Latest Workout: 7f in 1:23.80 (1/2) at Santa Anita Park on March 4. 

Comments: He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6. He got back to work on Jan. 21 and is targeting the San Felipe on March 10.
       
Derby Points (20)

(4) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)  

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18) 

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.13 (3/26) at Palm Beach Downs on March 3. 

Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. He will have one more race before the first Saturday in May, and that would be the Florida Derby on March 31.         

Derby Points (10)

(5) GOOD MAGIC  (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: Much was expected in his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth, and he did not deliver the goods in a bit of a flat show finish. It is possible that he needed the race, and he could certainly move up next time, but this was not the same horse that we saw in the BC Juvenile. On the positive side, he has a solid 2-year-old foundation, is in good shape on the Derby points list, and appears healthy and sound. He will need to show more late interest in his final Derby prep, which will likely be the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.   

Derby Points (34)  

(6) AVERY ISLAND (Street Sense - Kinda Spicy, by A. P. Indy)

Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin, LLC)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Withers Stakes, AQU, 2-3-18)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (12/86) at Palm Meadows on March 3. 

Comments: He had a productive juvenile campaign with a win in the G2 Nashua and a place finish in the G2 Remsen. He sat a nice outside pressing trip and was a couple of lengths clear of Firenze Fire in his Feb. 3 Withers return at nine furlongs. He has fine connections, a strong pedigree, and early/pressing versatility. The March 24 Louisiana Derby will be his final points race before the first Saturday in May.   

Derby Points (14)

(7) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.55 (28/46) at Gulfstream Park on March 3. 

Comments: The G1 Breeders’ Futurity hero put his BC Juvenile flop behind him with a solid place finish in his sophomore return in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to his 3-year-old bow and should be fitter next time. He matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating at the Gulf on Feb. 3. He entered the Fountain of Youth Stakes but scratched in favor of the Gotham Stakes (one mile) at Aqueduct on Saturday, March 10.    

Derby Points (14)

(8) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)

Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17) 

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (1/3) at Bridlewood Farm on March 3. 

Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp surface switching victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on 12-2-17. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and finished a solid if unspectacular 2nd in his comeback race in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. He rallied into tepid splits in the Davis and was not fully cranked for his first start of 2018. His final Derby prep race options include the Louisiana Derby on March 24, the Florida Derby on March 31, or the Wood Memorial a week later.  

Derby Points (14)

(9) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.21 (6/26) at Palm Beach Downs on March 3. 

Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park and finished an okay 3rd in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb. 17. The lightly raced colt only has time for one more Derby prep (possibly the Louisiana Derby), and will need a big effort to make the gate on the first Saturday in May.  

Derby Points (10)  

(10) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)

Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 138 (Risen Star Stakes, FG, 2-17-18)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.80 (54/75) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25. 

Comments: After earning his diploma in a dirt route at Santa Anita on 10-29-17, he was placed 2nd via disqualification in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. He ended up an even 4th in the Risen Star Stakes and will have to run much better in his final Derby prep (Louisiana Derby or Santa Anita Derby). 

Derby Points (19)

(11) FIRENZE FIRE  (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)

Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Jerome Stakes, AQU, 1-13-18)

Latest Workout: 4f in :50.69 (88/100) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on March 4. 

Comments: He is 4-for-5 in one-turn races (won G3 Sanford, G1 Champagne, and listed Jerome), and 0-for-2 in routes. In his last start in the G3 Withers at a mile and an eighth, he was a grinding 2nd in an okay effort (144 Final Rating). He never misses a dance, and his next stop is the Gotham Stakes on March 10. 

Derby Points (24) 

THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bravazo, (13) Promises Fulfilled, (14) Combatant, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Justify, (17) My Boy Jack, (18) Mississippi, (19) Restoring Hope, (20) Vino Rosso

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