Audible rallied from far back to finish 3rd in his dirt sprint unveiling at Belmont Park last September, and he has done nothing wrong since. After his debut, he rallied to defeat New York-bred foes at one mile at Aqueduct in November, and dusted three rivals in an off the turf affair at a flat mile at Aqueduct in December. He made his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4, and was an emphatic 5-1/2 length winner after stalking moderate fractions.
Remsen Stakes hero Catholic Boy, most recently 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, might be the biggest threat to Audible. He is training forwardly and figures to enjoy the nine furlong distance of the Florida Derby.
Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power, the 1-2 finishers in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, are also expected to contest the Florida Derby, along with Fire When Ready, Millionaire Runner, Mississippi, Speed Franco, Storm Runner, and Tip Sheet.
The other Kentucky Derby points race this weekend is the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai on Saturday, March 25. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn, fresh off a victory in the Patton Stakes, is the marquee name for trainer Aidan O’Brien. The Kentucky Derby has been his target for many months. Reride leaves the states after a pair of New Mexico stakes wins for Steve Asmussen. He easily defeated Runaway Ghost in the Mine That Derby in his last start, and that runner looked good winning the Sunland Derby last weekend. Gold Town is the top local hope for Godolphin, and they have every intention of bringing him to Kentucky if he earns enough Derby points.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 24-25:
Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds, 3-24-18; 146 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
The opening quarter of a mile (22.97) tells the LA Derby story. Eventual winner Noble Indy added blinkers and was a length back early, and 2-3 finishers Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack were at the back of the pack in 9th and 10th place in the early stages. It looked like the aforementioned closers would sweep the exacta, but Noble Indy and John Velazquez had other plans. The Todd Pletcher trainee was passed by the two late runners in the stretch, but came again to gain the advantage by a neck at the wire. This was the kind of gritty, prominent throughout performance that you like to see in a Derby contender. The top three finishers were 7+ clear of the rest of the field, and Noble Indy was the only early runner around at the end. Snapper Sinclair chased and faded in a disappointing effort. Ditto Bravazo, but he has enough Derby qualifying points if Lukas and company opt to run on the first Saturday in May. I don’t know how strong this race from top to bottom, but Noble Indy ran a quality race and still has upside with only four starts to his name. My Boy Jack is the kind of closer that can make some noise in the Derby for Team Desormeaux. He currently has 32 Derby points and is on the bubble with seven points races left on the docket.
Sunland Derby (Sunland Park, 3-25-18; 152 Final Rating)
Runaway Ghost was the top local hope in the Sunland Derby, and the bet-down Ghostzapper colt did not let down his backers. His Today’s Racing Digest performance ratings jumped up in his two local stakes starts earlier this year, and he kicked his game up another notch on Sunday. He dueled on the lead in his first two outings this year, but jockey Tracy Hebert was more patient from an outer post position this time. He was a wide 8th early, steadily advanced to 4th after the six furlong mark, opened up a commanding lead in the lane, and easily held off Steve Asmussen’s late runner Dream Baby Dream (blinkers on). The latter was six lengths clear of show finisher Peace. High percentage trainer Todd Fincher conditions Runaway Ghost, and he has done a very nice job preparing his charge for the Derby. He will get a class and distance test under the Twin Spires, and his newfound running style versatility is an asset.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Instilled Regard has now worked five times since finishing a flat 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, and he checked in just behind recent LA Derby hero Noble Indy in New Orleans in that race. His most recent move was a seven furlong work in company with Shackleford Banks on March 25. He was at least sixteen lengths behind his workmate before passing him at the wire. He will have his final Derby prep in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Sam F. Davis hero and Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Flameaway drilled a half-mile bullet in 48.95 (1/36) at Palm Meadows Training Center on March 25. The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7 is his next assignment.
Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip got back to work for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. He breezed a half-mile in 48.40 (3/55) at Tampa Bay Downs on March 24. He will wrap up his Derby preparations in the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial.
Finally, Gronkowski will not be shipped to the US for a Derby prep start after all. Trainer Jeremy Noseda was reportedly looking at the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial, but will instead enter his Derby hopeful in the Burradon Stakes on March 30 at Newcastle. Churchill Downs added a European road to the Derby points race series this year, and Gronkowski can secure a starting spot on the first Saturday in May if he finishes 1st or 2nd on March 30.
Speed figures courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.00 (1/93) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He started as my top ranked Derby contender when I began my list last September, and he has never left that position. He has done everything you want to see in a Derby contender up to this point. He won his first two sprints last summer including the Del Mar Futurity. He stretched out and blew away his rivals in the G1 FrontRunner, and he never gave up despite a very wide trip from an outer post in the BC Juvenile (finished 3rd). In his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 10, he did everything asked of him and more while not fully cranked. He fought hard throughout and was placed first following a late stretch bumping incident with McKinzie, and the show finisher was far back. His first workout since the San Felipe was a strong half-mile bullet on March 26, and I fully expect him to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Derby Points (64)
(2) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.40 (1/116) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: Could he be the next Silver Charm for Baffert? He can be brilliant, like he was in his big debut win, and in his razor sharp off the pace tally in the G3 Sham (blinkers off). He also showed that he is not afraid to battle hard throughout, like he did in the G1 Los Al Futurity (placed first via disqualification), and in the San Felipe (finished 1st but placed 2nd via disqualification). He has worked twice since the San Felipe, including a five furlong bullet on March 26. He is in need of a less eventful race in his final Derby prep, and it looks like he will knock heads with Bolt d’Oro again in the Santa Anita Derby.
Derby Points (40)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.39 (3/30) at Palm Beach Downs on March 24.
Comments: After rallying for the show in his dirt sprint debut, he has rattled off three straight wins. In his last start at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull on Feb. 3, he stepped up to face quality foes, and he was up to the task in a sharp 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. The Florida Derby on March 31 will be his final Kentucky Derby points race.
Derby Points (10)
(4) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1.01.45 (5/36) at Palm Meadows on March 24.
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: He is still only a winner of one race, but what a win it was. In his maiden victory in the BC Juvenile, he blew the doors off of quality foes Solomini and Bolt d’Oro, and that visually impressive effort garnered him the Eclipse Award for outstanding 2-year-old. Prior to the BC Juvenile, he finished 2nd in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. He made his much anticipated 3-year-old bow in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and he ended up a flat 3rd in a race he probably needed. He will need to show much more in his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(5) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.00 (8/93) at Santa Anita on March 26.
Comments: Always a bridesmaid and never a bride in the stakes ranks. He was 2nd to romping winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split a razor sharp Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity. He got sick over the winter, and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. In his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17, jockey Flavien Prat seemed to want the lead, but he was not quick enough early, so he stalked the pace inside. He briefly got stuck behind weakening front runner Title Ready in early stretch, and he battled hard to the end while outmaneuvering late runner Combatant for the place. He should have gotten a ton out of the Rebel Stakes and might move forward in his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(6) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.46 (8/58) at Gulfstream Park on March 25.
Comments: He won two stakes races as a juvenile, the With Anticipation on turf at Saratoga, and the Remsen Stakes at a mile and an eighth on dirt at Aqueduct. He made his first start as a 3-year-old in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10, and he rallied into tepid splits and finished a respectable 2nd in a race he probably needed. He will complete his Derby points race road in the Florida Derby on March 31, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will replace Manny Franco in the irons.
Derby Points (14)
(7) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and edging graded winner Instilled Regard for the show in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. He added blinkers in the Louisiana Derby and was in the hunt throughout. He was passed in the stretch but came again to secure the victory in a determined effort under John Velazquez. He has completed his road to the Derby race schedule and will begin preparing for the biggest test of his short career on first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (110)
(8) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in :59.60 (2/118) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He is making up for lost time after failing to start as a juvenile. He was an impressive debut winner in an extended sprint at Santa Anita on Feb. 18, and made short work of his four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns at the same venue on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He is obviously very talented but has only raced twice and is definitely playing catch up at this stage. He drilled a half-mile bullet on March 20, and worked fast again at Santa Anita on March 26. Next up is the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 14.
(9) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Comments: The unraced 2-year-old began his career with an easy dirt sprint win at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13. He stretched out and easily took down four rivals in an optional claiming route at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 15, and looked very good winning his first stakes start in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. In the Rebel, he attended the pace outside, bid for the lead turning for home, and pulled clear for a 3-1/2 length victory under jockey Luis Saez. He will complete his road to the Derby in the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (13/36) at Palm Meadows on March 23.
Comments: With Avery Island out with an injury, he is McLaughlin’s last Derby hope. Following a game show finish in the Champagne at Belmont Park last fall, he captured a productive renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, Bravazo). He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his G2 Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a big win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep. He is bred to handle nine furlongs at the very least, and might be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.91 (65/96) at Gulfstream Park on March 24.
Comments: He won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year with a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating, and earned the same number in his Holy Bull place finish, and his Gotham show finish. He was part of my original “exceptional eleven” last September, so I have a soft spot for him, plus his sire Union Rags was my 2012 Derby-Belmont horse. It appears that he is a notch below the best at this stage, and his preferred distance is anyone’s guess. He seems to like Keeneland, and will wrap up his road to the Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes in Lexington, Kentucky on April 7.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Instilled Regard - 19 points, (13) Combatant - 22 points, (14) Promises Fulfilled - 52 points, (15) My Boy Jack - 32 points, (16) Quip - 50 points, (17) Lone Sailor - 42 points, (18) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (19) Bravazo - 54 points, (20) Runaway Ghost - 50 points.
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