American Pharoah’s sister Chasing Yesterday is the race favorite for Baffert, and she has been very good in sprint races. Mother Mother is also conditioned by Baffert and she looms a pace factor at the very least.
Grade I Starlet Analysis (12-8-18)
LRC 7 (G1 Starlet, 2yo fil, 8.5f) #1 VIBRANCE (5-2) started her career in a turf route and she ended up 4th. She was 1 of 3 next out winners from that heat in a flat mile dirt race Aug 29, and she followed that up with a clear 2nd to runaway winner Bellafina in the G1 Chandelier. She finished a clear 3rd behind sharp front running winner Jaywalk in the BC Juvenile Fillies last time and Prat rides the early-pressing threat today. She improved her FIRE, CPR, + Final Ratings in all four starts (129 Final in Breeders’ Cup). #2 Mother Mother (2-1) was up on the pace in all three starts (2 wins and a 2nd) and she added blinkers and held on in the Rags to Riches at CD Oct 28 (one turn mile - 132 Final Rating). The runner-up from her last, Molto Bella, went off a 3-1 in the G2 Demoiselle Dec 1 and finished 4th (beaten 18 lengths). Show finisher High Regard returned to land the show in the G2 Golden Rod. #3 Sold It (20-1) has a tough task for Doug O’Neill. She set a pressured pace and held 3rd in her dirt sprint bow at 6.5f, and she dueled and held on by a neck in a turf sprint Nov 15. She was the favorite in her first two starts and is a longshot pace factor today. #4 Oxy Lady (5-1) added blinkers and romped in the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov 2 (136 CPR + 135 Final), but that is looking like a negative race (inflated number). Clear runner-up Enliven was pummeled by 23 lengths as the chalk in the Demoiselle Dec 1. Show finisher Surge of Pride was beaten by 10+ vs. NY-bred stakes foes Nov 23. 4th place finisher Takecharge Mirella was a well-beaten 3rd of 4 in an OC-75k/1x at AQU Nov 29. #5 Enaya Alrabb (12-1) added blinkers and improved to graduate in a one mile dirt race second time out at SA Oct 25. She owns the lowest numbers. #6 Chasing Yesterday (9-5) is 3-for-3 in SoCal dirt sprints and her only below par effort was a 7th of 11 in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga second time out. She beat 2 rivals in the Desi Arnaz at 7f Nov 12 and the numbers from that race were disappointing. She can win if she earns Anoakia-like numbers (Oct 14 6f SA - 136 CPR + 137 Final). THE PLAYS - #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-4
Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race Recaps
Golden Rod Recap (11-24-18) - Winner: Liora
Restless Rider was the overwhelming favorite in this wet track route under the Twin Spires, and she sat a comfortable stalking trip in third behind front runner Liora. Those two hooked up in the stretch and when the tussle ended, it was 27-1 longshot Liora by a nose. Restless Rider was a clear 2nd and was followed by High Regard, Champagne Anyone, Gold Credit, Princess Causeway, Break Curfew, and Reflect. The wet track may have affected some of the performances, and I am just not sure what to make of the results. I have been a fan of Restless Rider for quite some time and have been disappointed with her overall progress this fall. She deserves a break.
Demoiselle Recap (12-1-18) - Winner: Positive Spirit
The fast main track was deep and the rail was not the place to be early in the day, and this event was carded early (race 4). To give you an idea of the bad inside, Joe Bravo steered Enliven at least three paths away from the inside even though she broke from the rail post. Positive Spirit was up on the pace and wide throughout, and she rode the good portion of the track to a 10+ length score under Manny Franco. Afleet Destiny rallied wide to secure the place over outside front runner Filly Joel. It was more than five lengths back to Molto Bella in 4th, and she was followed by Enliven, Jennifer’s Dream, and Girl of Tosconova. The final time was 1:56.01, and note that the track played considerably faster and the inside lanes were not nearly as bad later in the day. For final time comparisons, 2-year-old males in the Remsen (race 8) completed the same distance in 1:51.34. Positive Spirit is bred to be a good one but it is tough to get a true early gauge on the 2018 Demoiselle.
Kentucky Oaks Points Leaderboard (through Demoiselle Stakes)
1. Jaywalk - 30 points
2. Restless Rider - 22 points
3. Bellafina - 12 points
4. Serengeti Empress - 10 points
5. Positive Spirit - 10 points
6. Liora - 10 points
7. Vibrance - 8 points
Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2019 Contenders (12-7-18)
#1 - JAYWALK - Two-time grade one winner continues to improve for John Servis (saddled 2016 Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia).
#2 - VIBRANCE - All four starts were routes and she hit the board in both grade one attempts. She goes next in the Dec. 8 Starlet.
#3 - RESTLESS RIDER - Consistent filly fired exacta shots in all six outings. She likes Churchill and is a grade one winner.
#4 - OXY LADY - Improving filly owns a route pedigree (Oxbow-A. P. Indy) and looked good winning the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov. 2.
#5 - POSITIVE SPIRIT - Always Dreaming’s 1/2 sister has plenty of upside and will spend the winter in Florida.
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