I have been covering the Derby hopefuls since last September and I am pleased to announce that I am including Today’s Racing Digest stats for the first time today.
In my comments below, I will be mentioning FIRE Number + CPR. The FIRE Number is based on speed throughout a race and the CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) is based on pace, final time, and closing fraction.
You can view my latest Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders video featuring Gormley and Irap at the bottom of this blog post. I will be back with a final Derby contenders video later this week.
Also, if you are interested in an excellent FREE Kentucky Derby report, please visit Today’s Racing Digest.
I will be back later this week after the post position draw with final pre-race thoughts.
My annual Kentucky Derby Day 2017 full card will be available later this week after post positions are drawn and fields are set.
Also, as an added bonus, if you purchase my 2017 Kentucky Derby Day full card from CD for $15 through The Runaway Horse, you will also receive my SA quick picks with wagering strategies (includes Ky Oaks Day stakes picks from CD on May 5) throughout Derby week (May 4-7). I will send all bonus picks via email as soon as they are complete.
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales Page for more information.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders
(1) ALWAYS DREAMING (Bodemeister - Above Perfection, by In Excess)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Brooklyn Boyz Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.60 (1/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: Uncorked a big 102 FIRE Number and 148 CPR in the Florida Derby and looked great working at Churchill April 28. However, before and after his big work, he has refused to settle in morning gallops and that is not a good sign for a horse trying to navigate ten furlongs for the first time. Pletcher has five days to get him to settle. On May 1, he came to the track with a new set of draw reins under new exercise rider Nick Bush. He fought restraint early before settling much better during his mile and a quarter gallop.
Derby Points (100)
(2) GUNNEVERA (Dialed In - Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled)
Trainer (Antonio Sano) - Owner (Peacock Racing Stables, LLC)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:03.60 (35/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: He needs pace help in the Derby and can get the job done if he runs back to his 100 FIRE + 156 CPR in the Fountain of Youth.
Derby Points (84)
(3) MCCRAKEN (Ghostzapper - Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold)
Trainer (Ian Wilkes) - Owner (Whitham Thoroughbreds LLC)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.80 (10/32) at Churchill Downs on April 30.
Comments: He looked fantastic in his final two Derby works and appears to be ready to produce a top effort on May 6. He earned a 92 FIRE Number in the Blue Grass, his first career loss, but is 3-for-3 at Churchill and gives every indication that he will bounce back on Derby Day.
Derby Points (40)
(4) IRISH WAR CRY (Curlin - Irish Soverign, by Polish Numbers)
Trainer (Graham Motion) - Owner (Isabelle de Tomaso)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13.20 (1/2) at Fair Hill Training Center on April 30.
Comments: Derby winning trainer Motion was pleased with his final Derby work and earned strong Digest numbers in his two Derby prep wins in the Holy Bull (100 FIRE + 145 CPR) and Wood Memorial (104 FIRE + 141 CPR).
Derby Points (110)
(5) GORMLEY (Malibu Moon - Race to Urga, by Bernstein)
Trainer (John Shirreffs) - Owner (Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S. Moss)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:28 (1/2) at Santa Anita Park on April 29.
Comments: The SA Derby has been a productive Derby prep race recently but Gormley’s winning 98 FIRE Number puts him behind some of the top contenders this year.
Derby Points (125)
(6) PRACTICAL JOKE (Into Mischief - Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (Klaravich Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (19/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: He is training well enough for the Derby and matched Gormey’s 98 FIRE Number with a 2nd in the Blue Grass. He is 3-for-3 sprinting and 0-for-3 routing.
Derby Points (74)
(7) CLASSIC EMPIRE (Pioneerof The Nile - Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (John C. Oxley)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.20 (47/84) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: His multiple setbacks this year are hard to overlook and he has not come close to the 100 FIRE Number he earned in the BC Juvenile last fall. He should be fitter than he has been in months but will it be enough?
Derby Points (132)
(8) GIRVIN (Tale of Ekati - Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
Trainer (Joe Sharp) - Owner (Brad Grady)
Latest Workout: 5f in :59.60 (2/16) at Keeneland on April 29.
Comments: He earned back-to-back 100 FIRE Numbers in the Risen Star and LA Derby but came up with a foot issue at the worst possible time. It is almost impossible to have a setback and win a race like the Kentucky Derby and even though he looked good working April 29, seasoning is a big issue with a missed work and only four career starts.
Derby Points (150)
(9) IRAP (Tiznow - Silken Cat, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Doug O’Neill) - Owner (Reddam Racing)
Latest Workout: 8f in 1:44.20 (1/2) at Keeneland on April 28.
Comments: Earned a 100 FIRE Number in the Blue Grass but must prove that was not a fluke because his other seven numbers were much lower.
Derby Points (113)
(10) PATCH (Union Rags - Windyindy, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Calumet Fam)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.20 (3/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: I love his pedigree and rising numbers pattern but if Girvin lacks seasoning, this one does as well with only three career starts and one win.
Derby Points (40)
(11) THUNDER SNOW (Helmet - Eastern Joy, by Dubai Destination)
Trainer (Saeed bin Suroor) - Owner (Godolphin)
Comments: The mystery horse from Dubai arrived at Churchill Downs April 30. This is the type of year to consider a new face but Dubai shippers have yet to make a dent in the Derby.
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Hence - 4f in :48.80 (8/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1. He looked good galloping out and might be the best of the Asmussen Derby runners.
(13) Battle of Midway - 6f in 1:13.40 (5/13) at Santa Anita Park on April 28.
(14) J Boys Echo - 5f in 1:01 (5/21) at Churchill Downs on April 29.
(15) Tapwrit - 5f in 1:00.20 (3/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
(16) Lookin at Lee - 4f in :50.20 (15/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1.
(17) Fast and Accurate - 5f in 1:01.20 (17/32) at Churchill Downs on April 30.
(18) State of Honor - 4f in :48.80 (34/84) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
(19) Untrapped - 4f in :50.40 (17/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1.
(20) Sonneteer - 4f bullet in :47 (1/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1. Maiden looked sharp working for first time since Arkansas Derby.
On the Outside Looking in:
(21) Royal Mo - 6f in 1:13 (5/14) at Santa Anita on April 29.
(22) Local Hero - 4f in :50.60 (18/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1.
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