Kentucky Derby 2017 Video Preview Featuring Pedigrees

In this Kentucky Derby 2017 preview video, Jarrod Horak takes a look at bloodlines.

Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders: Always Dreaming, Gunnevera, McCraken: To...

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: It's Derby Week!

The long and winding road to Kentucky Derby 2017 came to end on April 15 and many of the hopefuls have arrived at Churchill Downs for the big event on the first Saturday in May.

I have been covering the Derby hopefuls since last September and I am pleased to announce that I am including Today’s Racing Digest stats for the first time today.

In my comments below, I will be mentioning FIRE Number + CPR. The FIRE Number is based on speed throughout a race and the CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) is based on pace, final time, and closing fraction.   

You can view my latest Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders video featuring Gormley and Irap at the bottom of this blog post. I will be back with a final Derby contenders video later this week.  

Also, if you are interested in an excellent FREE Kentucky Derby report, please visit Today’s Racing Digest.

I will be back later this week after the post position draw with final pre-race thoughts.

My annual Kentucky Derby Day 2017 full card will be available later this week after post positions are drawn and fields are set.

Also, as an added bonus, if you purchase my 2017 Kentucky Derby Day full card from CD for $15 through The Runaway Horse, you will also receive my SA quick picks with wagering strategies (includes Ky Oaks Day stakes picks from CD on May 5) throughout Derby week (May 4-7). I will send all bonus picks via email as soon as they are complete.

Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales Page for more information.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders

(1) ALWAYS DREAMING (Bodemeister - Above Perfection, by In Excess)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Brooklyn Boyz Stables)

Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.60 (1/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.

Comments: Uncorked a big 102 FIRE Number and 148 CPR in the Florida Derby and looked great working at Churchill April 28. However, before and after his big work, he has refused to settle in morning gallops and that is not a good sign for a horse trying to navigate ten furlongs for the first time. Pletcher has five days to get him to settle. On May 1, he came to the track with a new set of draw reins under new exercise rider Nick Bush. He fought restraint early before settling much better during his mile and a quarter gallop.    

Derby Points (100)

(2) GUNNEVERA (Dialed In - Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled)

Trainer (Antonio Sano) - Owner (Peacock Racing Stables, LLC)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:03.60 (35/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.

Comments: He needs pace help in the Derby and can get the job done if he runs back to his 100 FIRE + 156 CPR in the Fountain of Youth.  
                  
Derby Points (84)

(3) MCCRAKEN (Ghostzapper - Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold)

Trainer (Ian Wilkes) - Owner (Whitham Thoroughbreds LLC)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.80 (10/32) at Churchill Downs on April 30.

Comments: He looked fantastic in his final two Derby works and appears to be ready to produce a top effort on May 6. He earned a 92 FIRE Number in the Blue Grass, his first career loss, but is 3-for-3 at Churchill and gives every indication that he will bounce back on Derby Day. 

Derby Points (40)

(4) IRISH WAR CRY (Curlin - Irish Soverign, by Polish Numbers)

Trainer (Graham Motion) - Owner (Isabelle de Tomaso)

Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13.20 (1/2) at Fair Hill Training Center on April 30.

Comments: Derby winning trainer Motion was pleased with his final Derby work and earned strong Digest numbers in his two Derby prep wins in the Holy Bull (100 FIRE + 145 CPR)  and Wood Memorial (104 FIRE + 141 CPR).  

Derby Points (110)  

(5) GORMLEY  (Malibu Moon - Race to Urga, by Bernstein)

Trainer (John Shirreffs) - Owner (Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S. Moss)

Latest Workout: 7f in 1:28 (1/2) at Santa Anita Park on April 29.

Comments: The SA Derby has been a productive Derby prep race recently but Gormley’s winning 98 FIRE Number puts him behind some of the top contenders this year.  

Derby Points (125)

(6) PRACTICAL JOKE (Into Mischief - Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (Klaravich Stables)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (19/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.

Comments: He is training well enough for the Derby and matched Gormey’s 98 FIRE Number with a 2nd in the Blue Grass. He is 3-for-3 sprinting and 0-for-3 routing.        

Derby Points (74)

(7) CLASSIC EMPIRE (Pioneerof The Nile - Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)

Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (John C. Oxley)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.20 (47/84) at Churchill Downs on April 28.

Comments: His multiple setbacks this year are hard to overlook and he has not come close to the 100 FIRE Number he earned in the BC Juvenile last fall. He should be fitter than he has been in months but will it be enough? 

Derby Points (132)      

(8) GIRVIN (Tale of Ekati - Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)

Trainer (Joe Sharp) - Owner (Brad Grady)

Latest Workout: 5f in :59.60 (2/16) at Keeneland on April 29.

Comments: He earned back-to-back 100 FIRE Numbers in the Risen Star and LA Derby but came up with a foot issue at the worst possible time. It is almost impossible to have a setback and win a race like the Kentucky Derby and even though he looked good working April 29, seasoning is a big issue with a missed work and only four career starts.  

Derby Points (150)

(9) IRAP  (Tiznow - Silken Cat, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Doug O’Neill) - Owner (Reddam Racing)

Latest Workout: 8f in 1:44.20 (1/2) at Keeneland on April 28.

Comments: Earned a 100 FIRE Number in the Blue Grass but must prove that was not a fluke because his other seven numbers were much lower.  

Derby Points (113)

(10) PATCH  (Union Rags - Windyindy, by A. P. Indy)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Calumet Fam)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.20 (3/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.

Comments: I love his pedigree and rising numbers pattern but if Girvin lacks seasoning, this one does as well with only three career starts and one win.  

Derby Points (40)

(11) THUNDER SNOW  (Helmet - Eastern Joy, by Dubai Destination)

Trainer (Saeed bin Suroor) - Owner (Godolphin)

Comments: The mystery horse from Dubai arrived at Churchill Downs April 30. This is the type of year to consider a new face but Dubai shippers have yet to make a dent in the Derby.   

THE NEXT NINE:

(12) Hence - 4f in :48.80 (8/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1. He looked good galloping out and might be the best of the Asmussen Derby runners.  

(13) Battle of Midway - 6f in 1:13.40 (5/13) at Santa Anita Park on April 28.

(14) J Boys Echo - 5f in 1:01 (5/21) at Churchill Downs on April 29.

(15) Tapwrit - 5f in 1:00.20 (3/35) at Churchill Downs on April 28.

(16) Lookin at Lee - 4f in :50.20 (15/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1.

(17) Fast and Accurate - 5f in 1:01.20 (17/32) at Churchill Downs on April 30.

(18) State of Honor - 4f in :48.80 (34/84) at Churchill Downs on April 28.

(19) Untrapped - 4f in :50.40 (17/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1.

(20) Sonneteer - 4f bullet in :47 (1/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1. Maiden looked sharp working for first time since Arkansas Derby.

On the Outside Looking in:

(21) Royal Mo - 6f in 1:13 (5/14) at Santa Anita on April 29.

(22) Local Hero - 4f in :50.60 (18/22) at Churchill Downs on May 1.

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Arkansas Derby Recap

The road to Kentucky Derby 2017 came to a dramatic end on April 15 and 2-year-old champ Classic Empire threw his hat back into the ring with a victory in the Grade I Arkansas Derby.

Classic Empire was the Derby winterbook favorite but lost some of his luster in a flat show finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. He came out of that race with a foot abscess and was forced to miss his next scheduled start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Things went from bad to worse when he refused to work twice during the month of March and reportedly had a problem with his back. Trainer Mark Casse said no mas and sent him to Winding Oaks Farm to recharge his batteries. He finally came out of his funk and worked four times without incident.

Fast forward to the Arkansas Derby and Classic Empire settled in midpack from post 2 and rumbled down the middle of the track to beat Sunland Derby runner-up Conquest Mo Money by a 1/2 length, followed closely by Lookin At Lee, Sonneteer, and Malagacy. The top five finishers were separated by a couple of lengths in an ugly stretch run and the BSF came back a mediocre 94.

Classic Empire had every right to lose the Arkansas Derby but the champ stood up and refused to bend. He should be fitter now but can he come back in three weeks and run the race of his life in the Derby after everything that has happened to him this year? He has a very tough task ahead of him.  

In other Derby news, Cloud Computing, currently ranked 20th on the Kentucky Derby points list, worked at Belmont Park on April 22 and trainer Chad Brown said that he will skip the Derby and point to the Preakness Stakes. According to Brown, he lacked the seasoning (only 3 starts) to run in the Derby. Untrapped moves up one spot to #20 and is now in the Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen.

Todd Pletcher is still undecided about the Derby status of Malagacy. He is concerned about the ten furlong distance.

Battle of Midway was acquired privately by Don Alberto Stable and WinStar Farm earlier this week. Jerry Hollendorfer will remain his trainer and Flavien Prat will ride him in the Derby. He worked 5f in 1:00.60 at Santa Anita Park on April 22.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 4-22-17)

#1 - ALWAYS DREAMING

#2 - Gunnevera

#3 - McCraken

#4 - Irish War Cry

#5 - Battalion Runner

#6 - Girvin

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Gormley

#9 - Classic Empire

#10 - Irap

#11 - Patch


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, SA Derby Recap

The road to Kentucky Derby 2017 featured three big prep races on April 8 and Irish War Cry bounced back with a sharp victory in the Wood Memorial from Aqueduct.

Irish War Cry was content to track post time favorite Battalion Runner and was always moving sweetly under Rajiv Maragh. He pulled clear in the stretch and earned a 101 BSF.

It was a two-horse race throughout and Battalion Runner was clearly second best over Cloud Computing.

In a stunning Blue Grass Stakes outcome, longshot Irap earned his maiden win over Practical Joke and McCraken. The winning BSF was 93 and the top three finishes will all move on to the Kentucky Derby.

Gotham winner J Boys Echo and Tampa Bay Derby hero Tapwrit turned in disappointing efforts in the Blue Grass but both have enough Derby qualifying points in their connections opt to run on the first Saturday in May.

The SA Derby (88 BSF with slow final 3/8ths) was a mad 5-horse scramble in the stretch and Gormley got up late over Battle of Midway, Royal Mo, Reach the World, and Iliad. The latter pair do not have the necessary Derby points and Royal Mo is on the bubble. 

The final Derby prep is the Arkansas Derby on April 15 and it figures to have major implications on the final points standings. I will be back next week with a video preview of Oaklawn Park’s showcase event.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 4-9-17)

#1 - ALWAYS DREAMING

#2 - Gunnevera

#3 - McCraken

#4 - Irish War Cry

#5 - Battalion Runner

#6 - Girvin

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Gormley

#9 - Classic Empire

#10 - One Liner

#11 - Irap


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Blue Grass, SA Derby, Wood Memorial Preview

The road to Kentucky Derby 2017 is barreling down to the wire with three big prep races this week beginning with the Wood Memorial from Aqueduct.

It would not be a Derby prep without a Todd Pletcher contender and he has morning line favorite Battalion Runner for the Wood Memorial. The lightly raced $700k purchase owns early pressing versatility and will try to hold off Irish War Cry, Cloud Computing, and Mo Town.

The Blue Grass Stakes from Keeneland features the undefeated McCraken in a race without much pace. If the favorite stubs his toe, look for Tapwrit (Pletcher), J Boys Echo, and Practical Joke to pounce, and look out if Wild Shot sneaks away early!

Finally, the SA Derby is a wide open 13-horse cavalry charge with Iliad the tepid morning line favorite. The chalk might not want to go nine furlongs and if that is the case look for a real scramble in the stretch.  

You can find my SA Derby Video Play on my Free Picks page at The Runaway Horse.

Last week, Always Dreaming upended Gunnevera and company in the Florida Derby to become the latest in a long line of Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders for trainer Todd Pletcher. He looked good winning and has captured his last three route races by a combined 20 lengths!

State of Honor held on for 2nd in the Florida Derby and flattered the Tampa Bay Downs stakes form of McCraken and Tapwrit.

Gunnevera drew poorly and did not get the right setup but I was hoping he would finish a little better. He ended up an okay 3rd and should get more pace help on the first Saturday in May.

Florida Derby front runner Three Rules slowly faded and lost a 3-horse battle for 3rd (ended up 5th). His stamina was always in question and now we have the definitive answer. He does not have enough qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby and will probably show up in shorter stakes races late this year.

Girvin beat Pletcher trainee Patch in the LA Derby but the winning BSF was only 91. The aforementioned duo are both lightly raced and have plenty of upside but are not fast enough to win a race like the Kentucky Derby.

Local Hero stalked, pounced, and weakened to finish 3rd in the LA Derby. He has 30 Derby qualifying points but does not have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 4-8-17)

#1 - ALWAYS DREAMING

#2 - Gunnevera

#3 - McCraken

#4 - Practical Joke

#5 - Battalion Runner

#6 - Tapwrit

#7 - Irish War Cry

#8 - Gormley

#9 - Classic Empire

#10 - Iliad

#11 - Girvin


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

HRN Handicapping Video of the Week: G2 Blue Grass Stakes featuring McCraken

Kentucky Derby 2017 Prep Race Video: San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby Recap + Rebel Stakes Preview

My longtime top ranked Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Mastery made a successful return to the races in the San Felipe Stakes on March 11 but jockey Mike Smith pulled him up shortly after the finish line and he is off the Derby trail with a condylar fracture.

Tapwrit ran away with the Tampa Bay Derby and flattered the form of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (won by McCraken).

This week's Derby prep is the Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park and trainer Bob Baffert's American Anthem is the one to beat.

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: McCraken wins Sam F. Davis Stakes

McCraken moved up on many Kentucky Derby 2017 lists following a sharp off the pace tally in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb 11.

McCraken is now 4-for-4 and earned 10 Derby qualifying points in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last fall and another 10 points in Florida last weekend.

I like the fact that McCraken’s trainer Ian Wilkes worked with veteran conditioner Carl Nafzger during Unbridled’s and Street Sense’s Derby-winning campaigns. Mr. Wilkes is going old school with a trio of Derby preps and we already know his promising colt likes Churchill Downs.

Tapwrit was a decent 2nd in the Davis for Pletcher, followed by State of Honor and Wild Shot. Remsen runner-up No Dozing did not show up in a disappointing effort. 

Iliad looked good in the G2 San Vicente (96 BSF) at Santa Anita Park last Sunday. Bob Baffert trained him for his juvenile campaign and Doug "Neill is the conditioner now for Kaleem Shah's promising runner. It looks like the San Felipe/SA Derby for this one.

There are a pair of Derby points races this week beginning with the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Feb 18. Santa Anita Park shippers Sheer Flattery and Ann Arbor Eddie take on locals More Power to Him and Colonel Samsen in the nine furlong synthetic test.

On Presidents’ Day (Monday, Feb 20), Smarty Jones Stakes 1-2-3 finishers Uncontested, Petrov, and Rowdy the Warrior meet again.  

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-18-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - McCraken

#3 - El Areeb

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Three Rules

#6 - Classic Empire

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Royal Mo

#9 - Theory 

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Irish War Cry


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Handicapping Video of the Week: G3 Sam F. Davis with McCraken

The Sam F. Davis Stakes is my video race of the week and McCraken is the one to beat from off the pace.

Other contenders include stakes placed colts No Dozing and Wild Shot, and the Todd Pletcher pair of Fact Finding and Tapwrit.

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Holy Bull, Withers, Robert Lewis recap + Sam F Davis preview

The road to Kentucky Derby 2017 had three stops last week and Irish War Cry burst onto the scene with a sharp wire-to-wire win in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.

Irish War Cry traveled well throughout, easily defeating G3 Delta Jackpot hero Gunnevera and 2-year-old champion Classic Empire. The Motion trainee is now 3-for-3 but did have everything his own way at the Gulf and figures to face a stiffer pace challenge next time. 

Gunnevera rallied nicely for the place and Classic Empire came up empty in his sophomore debut. The latter was short on conditioning with only four works and came out of the Holy Bull with a foot abscess.

The G3 Withers was a replay of the Jerome with track condition the only real difference. Once again, El Areeb made short work of his competition in a solid stalk/pounce victory. He is expected to skip the Gotham and have his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial. We will learn more about El Areeb vs. tougher competition at nine furlongs.

It was nice to see Royal Mo go all the way in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. He has been on my Derby list for quite some time and the strapping son of Uncle Mo is developing nicely for John Shirreffs. He is still a bit behind some of the top tier Derby contenders but possesses raw talent and unlimited potential. 

This week’s Derby points race is the G3 Sam F. Davis from Tampa Bay Downs and G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes hero McCraken is the morning line favorite.

Stakes placed colts No Dozing and Wild Shot are both solid threats, and trainer Todd Pletcher goes after his seventh Sam F. Davis victory with Fact Finding and Tapwrit.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-11-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - McCraken

#3 - El Areeb

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Three Rules

#6 - Classic Empire

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Royal Mo

#9 - Theory 

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Irish War Cry


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Kentucky Derby 2017 prep races: Sam F. Davis Stakes preview

The Kentucky Derby 2017 trail makes a pit stop at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb 11 and McCraken is the one to beat in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes.

McCraken won all three of his juvenile starts at Churchill Downs including the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

Other Sam F. Davis contenders include G2 Remsen runner-up No Dozing and G2 Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Wild Shot.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Sam F. Davis six times and he has Fact Finding and Tapwrit for the 2017 renewal.

KENTUCKY DERBY 2017 UPDATE: Guest Suite Wins Lecomte

Guest Suite picked up ten Kentucky Derby 2017 points in an off the pace tally on a muddy (sealed) main track in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan 21.

The speed figure for the Lecomte was below par and it looks as though it was a weak race. Winner Guest Suite is slowly improving for Neil Howard and should continue to progress.

If you are keeping score at home, all four Derby points races this year (Jerome, Sham, Smarty Jones, Lecomte) were contested on a wet track. The top performers in the first three listed races were on or near the lead throughout and each race produced a lopsided win and/or strung-out fields. Guest Suite rallied from 6th and earned a subpar 82 BSF in the Lecomte. The jury is still out on Uncontested (Smarty Jones), El Areeb (Jerome),  and 1-2 Sham finishers Gormley and American Anthem.

There was not a Derby points race this week. Next week (Feb 4), the Withers from Aqueduct, the Holy Bull from Gulfstream, and the Robert Lewis from Santa Anita are each worth a total of 17 Derby points to the Top 4 finishers (10-4-2-1).  

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-29-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - McCraken

#6 - El Areeb

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Theory

#9 - Royal Mo 

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Faja


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards