The road to Kentucky Derby 2017 is in high gear this week with a pair of
important nine furlong preps starting with the G2 Louisiana Derby at
Fair Grounds.
Risen Star hero Girvin is the one to beat in the LA Derby. The patient runner is lightly raced and on the improve. Local Hero is the one to catch, Guest Suite is the one to fear late, and Patch tries to give trainer Todd Pletcher another Derby prep victory.
The Florida Derby features impressive late running Fountain of Youth winner Gunnevera but he must overcome a difficult outside draw and a potentially challenging pace scenario. FOY show finisher Three Rules might get brave if able to shake loose early and Always Dreaming might be able to step up and play ball in the big leagues for Pletcher.
You can view my Florida Derby/LA Derby video preview at the bottom of this blog post.
The two Derby preps last week (Spiral Stakes + Sunland Derby) hardly got the heart pumping.
First up was the Spiral Stakes on March 25 and former claimer Fast and Accurate
earned an 82 BSF for his upset win. There was nothing behind him and
his speed figure was below par in the slowest derby prep yet.
The Sunland Derby was contested on March 26 and Hence got a 93 BSF for his off the pace victory. There was not much behind him and his speed figure was okay at best.
El Areeb came out of his March 29 workout
at Laurel Park with a knee injury and is expected to miss six months.
9th place Rebel finisher Royal Mo drops out of the Top 11.
This week's handicapping video for Today's Racing Digest is the Louisiana Derby featuring Girvin. Check out the video below for a promo code for free past performances for any complete Digest product.
One Liner made a splash on theKentucky Derby 2017trail with a sharp victory over Petrov in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday, Feb 20.
One
Liner smartly ran down Petrov and earned a very good 102 BSF. I picked
Petrov on top but knew going in that he was probably a miler so One
Liner seemingly went by a horse at the end of his distance rope. I am
not sure how strong the top two Southwest players will be when they hit
nine panels and beyond.
Lookin At Lee was up for the show but ended up 11+ lengths behind the top pair. He wants more ground but needs to run faster.
If
I have see it once I have seen it a thousand times. Big wet track wins
are rarely duplicated over a different set of circumstances and that was
definitely true for Smarty Jones hero Uncontested
(fading 6th in Southwest). He had to work harder earlier to secure the
early lead on a fast track at a longer distance and came up empty in the
drive at underlaid odds. He has distance limitations due to uneven
energy distribution.
As for the other Derby prep last weekend, Zakarof
earned a 77 BSF and paid a whopping $99.60 in the El Camino Real Derby
at Golden Gate Fields. The nine furlong synthetic route was slow and
most likely will not have any impact on the first Saturday in May.
The
lone Derby points race this week is the Grade II Risen Star from Fair
Grounds. I planned on doing a video preview of this race but ran out of
time...sorry about that.
The Lecomte figure on a wet track came
up below par so horses not exiting that event (Girvin, Local Hero, U S
Officer, Cool Arrow, Mo Town, Sorry Erik, Horse Fly, It’s Your Nickel,
So Conflated) are worth a second look in the Risen Star.
Mo Town
smartly won the Remsen to end his juvenile campaign but that race is
looking like a negative prep after runner-up No Dozing failed to fire in
the Sam F. Davis and show finisher Takaful was drubbed in the Jerome.
Local Hero
landed the place in his first two extended sprints and ran off the
screen in his two turn maiden win at Fair Grounds Jan 26. Asmussen’s
$500,000 purchase might be able to go all the way in his graded stakes
debut. He is my top choice in the Risen Star.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-25-17) #1 - MASTERY #2 - McCraken #3 - El Areeb #4 - Gormley #5 - Three Rules #6 - Practical Joke #7 - Irish War Cry #8 - Royal Mo #9 - Classic Empire #10 - Theory #11 - Battalion Runner
Guest Suite picked up ten Kentucky Derby 2017 points in an off the pace tally on a muddy (sealed) main track in
the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan 21.
The speed figure for the Lecomte was below par and it looks as though it was a weak race. Winner Guest Suite is slowly improving for Neil Howard and should continue to progress.
If
you are keeping score at home, all four Derby points races this year
(Jerome, Sham, Smarty Jones, Lecomte) were contested on a wet track. The
top performers in the first three listed races were on or near the lead
throughout and each race produced a lopsided win and/or strung-out
fields. Guest Suite rallied from 6th and earned a subpar 82 BSF in the Lecomte. The jury is still out on Uncontested (Smarty Jones), El Areeb (Jerome), and 1-2 Sham finishers Gormley and American Anthem.
There was not a Derby points race this week. Next week (Feb 4), the Withers from Aqueduct, the Holy Bull from Gulfstream, and the Robert Lewis from Santa Anita are each worth a total of 17 Derby points to the Top 4 finishers (10-4-2-1).
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-29-17) #1 - MASTERY #2 - Classic Empire #3 - Three Rules #4 - Gormley #5 - McCraken #6 - El Areeb #7 - Practical Joke #8 - Theory #9 - Royal Mo #10 - Battalion Runner #11 - Faja
The lone Kentucky Derby 2017 points race this weekend is the G3 Lecomte from Fair Grounds and the 12-horse field is a real scramble.
Untrappedis
the 9-2 morning line favorite for Steve Asmussen and the Lecomte will
be his first start around two turns after a stalk/pounce maiden sprint
win at Churchill on Nov 20.
Asmussen saddles two other runners including Springboard Mile runner-up Totality. He did not get much pace help last time and will try to get involved late.
Guest Suite
looks like a solid contender for Neil Howard. His speed figures are on
the rise and he romped when last seen at Churchill Downs Nov 26.
Running Mate
rolled home in his first two sprints before losing the Sugar Bowl as
the heavy favorite. He stretches out for Larry Jones and is probably the
target.
Maiden Arklow is improving for sharp trainer Brad Cox and he might upset the applecart. Takeoff beat Arklow last time and should be forwardly placed for Mark Casse.
Shaeholder Value exits a dirt route win at Fair Grounds vs. optional claiming foes for Tom Amoss, who saddled 2016 Lecomte winner Mo Tom.
Saint’s Fan drew post 12 and trainer Dallas Stewart is expected to withdraw his charge because of the outside post.
Phat Man, Marco Mischief, Tip Tap Tapizar, and Pat On the Back round out the Lecomte field.
