Mastery, my top rankedKentucky Derby 2017
since November 2016, looked sensational in his San Felipe return but the
unbeaten colt sustained a condylar fracture (left front leg) and is off
the Derby trail.
Mastery looked every bit a major Derby contender on Saturday, leaving talented rivals Iliad and Gormley
in the dust. With Mastery out and McCraken and Classic Empire working
their way back from injury, the road to the Derby is in total disarray.
Tapwrit looked strong visually in the Tampa
Bay Derby but there was not much behind him and if anything the Top 4
finishers flattered Sam F. Davis hero McCraken. The latter is my new
number one Derby contender by default.
This week’s Derby points race is the Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park. Bob Baffert has owned this race recently and American Anthem is his entrant this year. The lightly raced colt is the morning line favorite under Mile Smith.
Other Rebel contenders include Uncontested (Smarty Jones winner), Petrov (Southwest runner-up), Untrapped (Risen Star runner-up), and Royal Mo (Robert Lewis winner).
My longtime top ranked Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Mastery made a successful return to the races in the San Felipe Stakes on March 11 but jockey Mike Smith pulled him up shortly after the finish line and he is off the Derby trail with a condylar fracture. Tapwrit ran away with the Tampa Bay Derby and flattered the form of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (won by McCraken). This week's Derby prep is the Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park and trainer Bob Baffert's American Anthem is the one to beat.
Gunnevera was the road toKentucky Derby 2017 star of last week with a powerful late running victory in the
Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 4.
Three Rules carved out solid fractions in the FOY and was chased by Holy Bull winner Irish War Cry, Takaful, and Made You Look, and the latter trio retreated to the back of the pack.
Meanwhile, Gunnevera and Javier Castellano were enjoying the scenery
from 10th and last before unleashing a strong late run to cross the line
5+ lengths in front.
Practical Joke rallied from 7th and fought
hard to edge a very game Three Rules for the place. It was another six
lengths back to Talk Logistics in 4th.
The Gotham was supposed to be a walk in the park for El Areeb
but his rider Trevor McCarthy made an early decision to go the front
and there was no turning back. He was hounded throughout by True Timber,
and eventual winner J Boys Echo took full advantage of the lively fractions and rolled home by 3.5 lengths (102 BSF).
Stalker Cloud Computing was clearly second
best in the Gotham and El Areeb held the show in a disappointing
performance that can be partly attributed to riding tactics.
Before anyone gets too excited about the Gotham, check out the 0-for-40
Kentucky Derby record for Gotham participants since 1980.
Two big Derby preps on tap this week beginning with the much anticipated return of Mastery
in the San Felipe. He has been my top ranked Derby contender for many
months and looks ready to roll off the bench for Bob Baffert.
2-time graded route winner Gormley and impressive G2 San Vicente hero Iliad figure to make Mastery work hard for the money.
The Tampa Bay Derby is a wide open affair and trainer Todd Pletcher has a pair of contenders including Sam F. Davis runner-up Tapwrit.
There are two Kentucky Derby 2017 prep races on tap this week and my top ranked Derby contender Mastery makes his much anticipated return in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park.
McCraken moved up on manyKentucky Derby 2017 lists following a sharp off the pace tally in the Sam F. Davis
Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb 11.
McCraken is now 4-for-4 and earned 10 Derby qualifying points in the G2
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last fall and another 10
points in Florida last weekend.
I like the fact that McCraken’s trainer Ian Wilkes worked with veteran
conditioner Carl Nafzger during Unbridled’s and Street Sense’s
Derby-winning campaigns. Mr. Wilkes is going old school with a trio of
Derby preps and we already know his promising colt likes Churchill
Downs.
Tapwrit was a decent 2nd in the Davis for Pletcher, followed by State of Honor and Wild Shot. Remsen runner-up No Dozing did not show up in a disappointing effort.
Iliad looked good in the G2 San Vicente (96
BSF) at Santa Anita Park last Sunday. Bob Baffert trained him for his
juvenile campaign and Doug "Neill is the conditioner now for Kaleem
Shah's promising runner. It looks like the San Felipe/SA Derby for this
one.
There are a pair of Derby points races this week beginning with the El
Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Feb 18. Santa Anita Park
shippers Sheer Flattery and Ann Arbor Eddie take on locals More Power to Him and Colonel Samsen in the nine furlong synthetic test. On Presidents’ Day (Monday, Feb 20), Smarty Jones Stakes 1-2-3 finishers Uncontested, Petrov, and Rowdy the Warrior meet again. Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-18-17) #1 - MASTERY #2 - McCraken #3 - El Areeb #4 - Gormley #5 - Three Rules #6 - Classic Empire #7 - Practical Joke #8 - Royal Mo #9 - Theory #10 - Battalion Runner #11 - Irish War Cry
Guest Suite picked up ten Kentucky Derby 2017 points in an off the pace tally on a muddy (sealed) main track in
the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan 21.
The speed figure for the Lecomte was below par and it looks as though it was a weak race. Winner Guest Suite is slowly improving for Neil Howard and should continue to progress.
If
you are keeping score at home, all four Derby points races this year
(Jerome, Sham, Smarty Jones, Lecomte) were contested on a wet track. The
top performers in the first three listed races were on or near the lead
throughout and each race produced a lopsided win and/or strung-out
fields. Guest Suite rallied from 6th and earned a subpar 82 BSF in the Lecomte. The jury is still out on Uncontested (Smarty Jones), El Areeb (Jerome), and 1-2 Sham finishers Gormley and American Anthem.
There was not a Derby points race this week. Next week (Feb 4), the Withers from Aqueduct, the Holy Bull from Gulfstream, and the Robert Lewis from Santa Anita are each worth a total of 17 Derby points to the Top 4 finishers (10-4-2-1).
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-29-17) #1 - MASTERY #2 - Classic Empire #3 - Three Rules #4 - Gormley #5 - McCraken #6 - El Areeb #7 - Practical Joke #8 - Theory #9 - Royal Mo #10 - Battalion Runner #11 - Faja
Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Uncontested went straight to the front in
the slop at Oaklawn and kept on going in an easy Smarty Jones Stakes
wire job as the favorite on Jan 16.
My top choice Petrov chased Uncontested from the opening bell and was clearly second best over late runner Rowdy the Warrior. The winning BSF was 96.
Just
like the Jerome and Sham, the Smarty Jones was contested on a wet
track. The top performers in all three races were on or near the lead
throughout and each race produced a lopsided win and/or strung-out
fields. Let’s see what Uncontested, El Areeb, Gormley, and American
Anthem can do in upcoming fast track graded routes vs. tougher
competition. With that in mind, Uncontested moves up to #14 on my “Next
Nine” but will not enter the “Exceptional Eleven” just yet.
The lone Derby points race this weekend is the G3 Lecomte from Fair Grounds and the 12-horse field is a real scramble.
Untrappedis
the 9-2 morning line favorite for Steve Asmussen and the Lecomte will
be his first start around two turns after a stalk/pounce maiden sprint
win at Churchill on Nov 20.
Asmussen saddles two other runners including Springboard Mile runner-up Totality. He did not get much pace help last time and will try to get involved late.
Guest Suite
looks like a solid contender for Neil Howard. His speed figures are on
the rise and he romped when last seen at Churchill Downs Nov 26.
Running Mate
rolled home in his first two sprints before losing the Sugar Bowl as
the heavy favorite. He stretches out for Larry Jones and is probably the
target.
Maiden Arklow is improving for sharp trainer Brad Cox and he might upset the applecart. Takeoff beat Arklow last time and should be forwardly placed for Mark Casse.
Shaeholder Value exits a dirt route win at Fair Grounds vs. optional claiming foes for Tom Amoss, who saddled 2016 Lecomte winner Mo Tom.
Saint’s Fan drew post 12 and trainer Dallas Stewart is expected to withdraw his charge because of the outside post.
Phat Man, Marco Mischief, Tip Tap Tapizar, and Pat On the Back round out the Lecomte field.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-20-17) #1 - MASTERY #2 - Classic Empire #3 - Three Rules #4 - Gormley #5 - McCraken #6 - El Areeb #7 - Practical Joke #8 - Theory #9 - Royal Mo #10 - Klimt #11 - Beach Bum
Gormley took care of business in the slop and picked up 10 Kentucky Derby 2017points in a narrow head victory over American Anthem in the Grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, Jan. 7.
Gormley won the G1 FrontRunner on a fast track in his second career start before a less than ideal start and wide trip derailed him in the G1 BC Juvenile. In the Sham, he shadowed American Anthem from the get-go and prevailed in a hard fought battle from start to finish.
American Anthem gave Gormley everything he could handle but two turn graded stakes experience ruled the day. The Baffert trainee has plenty of upside and it was thirteen lengths back to show finisher Big Hit.
Just like the Jerome a week prior, the Sham was contested on a wet track. The top performers in both races are obviously talented but wet tracks frequently produce lopsided victories with strung-out fields. Let’s see what El Areeb, Gormley, and American Anthem can do in upcoming fast track graded routes vs. tougher competition. With that in mind, American Anthem moves up to #13 on my “Next Nine” but will not enter the “Exceptional Eleven” just yet. Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-15-17) #1 - MASTERY #2 - Classic Empire #3 - Three Rules #4 - Gormley #5 - McCraken #6 - El Areeb #7 - Beach Bum #8 - Royal Mo #9 - Klimt #10 - Theory #11 - Practical Joke
El Areeb is the latest Kentucky Derby 2017 flavor of the month following a facile victory in the Grade 3 Jerome at Aqueduct on Jan 2.
Blowout
wins on wet tracks are typically not duplicated under a different set
of circumstances next time out so right now I would say that I am
cautiously optimistic regarding El Areeb. He is obviously
talented but must prove himself on dry land against bigger and better
foes. Time will tell if he is a legit Derby contender.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-7-17) #1 - MASTERY #2 - Classic Empire #3 - Three Rules #4 - Gormley #5 - Beach Bum #6 - Royal Mo #7 - McCracken #8 - Klimt #9 - El Areeb #10 - Theory #11 - Practical Joke
Mastery finishes the year as my top ranked
Kentucky Derby 2017 contender. He has been on top of the heap since Nov
18 and capped off a perfect 3-for-3 juvenile campaign with a 7-1/4
length romp in the Grade I CashCall Futurity at Los Alamitos Race Course
on Dec 10.
Classic Empire sits atop
many Derby lists and rightfully so. The BC Juvenile hero will likely be
named 2-year-old champ and is spending the winter in Florida.
This
is my tenth and final Derby update this year and there are no changes
to the Top 11 this week. I did add impressive maiden winner Iliadto the “next nine.” He got a 92 BSF in a 6f special weight win at Los Alamitos Race Course on Dec 18 for trainer Bob Baffert.
My top ranked Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Mastery
passed his first two turn test and ran his record to 3-for-3 with a
7-1/4 length triumph in the Grade I CashCall Futurity at Los Alamitos
Race Course on Saturday, December 10, 2016.
How good is Mastery
and is he a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender? He is obviously
talented after a trio of easy wins at three different venues (SA, DMR,
LRC) to begin his career. His 91 BSF for his Los Alamitos CashCall
Futurity romp was okay but hardly stellar. He will need to improve next
year to be considered a viable threat in the Triple Crown series but he
has done nothing wrong so far and has all of the attributes of a quality
horse (strong connections, nice pedigree, winning spirit, and a fine
blend of speed/stamina).
Later today at Los Alamitos Race Course, my top ranked Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Mastery makes his much anticipated first start around two turns in the Grade I Los Alamitos Futurity.
Mastery
easily captured both of his dirt sprint starts in wire-to-wire fashion
including the Grade 3 Bob Hope at Del Mar on Nov 19. He only faces four
rivals at Los Al and debut maiden sprint winner Bobby Abu Dhabi might be able to give him an early test.
Dangerfield, a distant 3rd last time in the G3 Delta Jackpot is also entered, along with debut route winner Show Me Da Lute (trained by Bob Baffert) and maiden Irap.
Three of my exceptional eleven Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders were in action last weekend including Kentucky Jockey Club hero McCraken.
McCraken
ran his record to 3-for-3 at Churchill Downs and picked up ten Derby
points en route to a 9th-to-1st (1.25 lengths clear) score in the Kentucky
Jockey Club. He ran down game early runner Wild Shot and garnered an 86 BSF. Warrior’s Club headed Uncontested for the show.
At the Big A on Saturday, Mo Town got the jump on No Dozing
(wide throughout from post 9) to take the G2 Remsen by 2.5 lengths (86
BSF). The winner did nothing wrong but the 2-3 finishers might be worth
following. Takaful, 3rd after setting the
pace, was making just his second career start and first around two turns
for McLaughlin. He went fast early, rated kindly on the lead in the
middle, and came up empty in the lane (beaten 6 lengths).
My top ranked Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Mastery made short work of his four rivals in last weekend’s Grade III Bob Hope at Del Mar.
Just like his winning debut, Mastery was in complete control throughout and easily swatted away seasoned CA-bred sprinter California Diamond. Pace frequently makes the speed figure and since there was none the final number came back a modest 86. We will learn much more when the Baffert trainee stretches out in the G1 CashCall Futurity at Los Al on Dec 10.
In the $1 million Delta Jackpot, post time favorite Gunnevera got pace help as expected in an easy last-to-first triumph over dueling early runner Hot Sean. The winning BSF came back 87 and since there was a contested pace it would have been nice to see a higher final number.
There are two Derby points races on the docket for Nov 26 beginning with the Grade II Remsen at Aqueduct. Much like the G3 Bob Hope, we have a flashy debut winner (Takaful) taking on a seasoned rival with stakes experience (No Dozing). There are other contenders in the 10-horse field but it would take a big effort to knock off the aforementioned dynamic duo.
At Churchill Downs, a dozen juveniles take center stage in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and all eyes are on undefeated McCraken. The well-bred colt should get more than enough pace help and looks tough to deny. Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 11-26-16) #1 - MASTERY #2 - Classic Empire #3 - Three Rules #4 - Gormley #5 - Takaful #6 - Beach Bum #7 - Klimt #8 - Theory #9 - Royal Mo #10 - Silver Assault #11 McCraken
A couple of graded stakes races on Nov. 19 could have Kentucky Derby 2017 implications beginning with the Grade III Bob Hope at Del Mar.
My brand new top ranked Derby contender Mastery
is the strong 4-5 favorite in the Bob Hope. He looked outstanding
throughout in his six furlong debut and is expected to target the
CashCall Futurity at Los Alamitos in December if everything goes well at
Del Mar on Saturday.
There appears to be plenty of early pace in
the Grade III Delta Jackpot and if that scenario plays out on the
racetrack, watch out for stretch runners Gunneveraand J Boys Echo. Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 11-18-16) #1 - MASTERY #2 - Not This Time #3 - Classic Empire #4 - Three Rules #5 - Gormley #6 - Takaful #7 - Beach Bum #8 - Klimt #9 - Theory #10 - Royal Mo #11 - Silver Assault
You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.
