Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Southwest Recap + Risen Star Preview

One Liner made a splash on the Kentucky Derby 2017 trail with a sharp victory over Petrov in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday, Feb 20.

One Liner smartly ran down Petrov and earned a very good 102 BSF. I picked Petrov on top but knew going in that he was probably a miler so One Liner seemingly went by a horse at the end of his distance rope. I am not sure how strong the top two Southwest players will be when they hit nine panels and beyond. 

Lookin At Lee was up for the show but ended up 11+ lengths behind the top pair. He wants more ground but needs to run faster.

If I have see it once I have seen it a thousand times. Big wet track wins are rarely duplicated over a different set of circumstances and that was definitely true for Smarty Jones hero Uncontested (fading 6th in Southwest). He had to work harder earlier to secure the early lead on a fast track at a longer distance and came up empty in the drive at underlaid odds. He has distance limitations due to uneven energy distribution.

As for the other Derby prep last weekend, Zakarof earned a 77 BSF and paid a whopping $99.60 in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields. The nine furlong synthetic route was slow and most likely will not have any impact on the first Saturday in May. 

The lone Derby points race this week is the Grade II Risen Star from Fair Grounds. I planned on doing a video preview of this race but ran out of time...sorry about that.

The Lecomte figure on a wet track came up below par so horses not exiting that event (Girvin, Local Hero, U S Officer, Cool Arrow, Mo Town, Sorry Erik, Horse Fly, It’s Your Nickel, So Conflated) are worth a second look in the Risen Star.

Mo Town smartly won the Remsen to end his juvenile campaign but that race is looking like a negative prep after runner-up No Dozing failed to fire in the Sam F. Davis and show finisher Takaful was drubbed in the Jerome. 

Local Hero landed the place in his first two extended sprints and ran off the screen in his two turn maiden win at Fair Grounds Jan 26. Asmussen’s $500,000 purchase might be able to go all the way in his graded stakes debut. He is my top choice in the Risen Star.  

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-25-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - McCraken

#3 - El Areeb

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Three Rules

#6 - Practical Joke

#7 - Irish War Cry

#8 - Royal Mo

#9 - Classic Empire

#10 - Theory 

#11 - Battalion Runner


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Handicapping Video of the Week: G3 Southwest with Uncontested, Petrov

Smarty Jones Stakes top four finishers Uncontested, Petrov, Rowdy the Warrior, and Warrior's Club square off again in the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday, February 20, 2017.

Uncontested will be tough to beat if he is able to dictate terms once again. Petrov should be chasing and hoping that someone goes with the Smarty Jones winner this time.

Rowdy the Warrior and Warrior's Club need to elevate their games to compete for an exacta spot.

Other contenders include last year's G1 Breeders' Futurity runner-up Lookin At Lee and One Liner for trainer Todd Pletcher. The latter is 2-for-2 in sprint races and tries to stretch his speed around two turns.

Kentucky Derby 2017 prep race video: El Camino Real Derby + Southwest Stakes

There are a pair of Derby points races this week beginning with the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Feb 18. Santa Anita Park shippers Sheer Flattery and Ann Arbor Eddie take on locals More Power to Him and Colonel Samsen in the nine furlong synthetic test.

On Presidents’ Day (Monday, Feb 20), Smarty Jones Stakes 1-2-3 finishers Uncontested, Petrov, and Rowdy the Warrior meet again.   

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Smarty Jones Stakes Recap + Lecomte Stakes Preview

Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Uncontested went straight to the front in the slop at Oaklawn and kept on going in an easy Smarty Jones Stakes wire job as the favorite on Jan 16.

My top choice Petrov chased Uncontested from the opening bell and was clearly second best over late runner Rowdy the Warrior. The winning BSF was 96.

Just like the Jerome and Sham, the Smarty Jones was contested on a wet track. The top performers in all three races were on or near the lead throughout and each race produced a lopsided win and/or strung-out fields. Let’s see what Uncontested, El Areeb, Gormley, and American Anthem can do in upcoming fast track graded routes vs. tougher competition. With that in mind, Uncontested moves up to #14 on my “Next Nine” but will not enter the “Exceptional Eleven” just yet.

The lone Derby points race this weekend is the G3 Lecomte from Fair Grounds and the 12-horse field is a real scramble.

Untrapped is the 9-2 morning line favorite for Steve Asmussen and the Lecomte will be his first start around two turns after a stalk/pounce maiden sprint win at Churchill on Nov 20.

Asmussen saddles two other runners including Springboard Mile runner-up Totality. He did not get much pace help last time and will try to get involved late.

Guest Suite looks like a solid contender for Neil Howard. His speed figures are on the rise and he romped when last seen at Churchill Downs Nov 26.

Running Mate rolled home in his first two sprints before losing the Sugar Bowl as the heavy favorite. He stretches out for Larry Jones and is probably the target.

Maiden Arklow is improving for sharp trainer Brad Cox and he might upset the applecart. Takeoff beat Arklow last time and should be forwardly placed for Mark Casse.

Shaeholder Value exits a dirt route win at Fair Grounds vs. optional claiming foes for Tom Amoss, who saddled 2016 Lecomte winner Mo Tom.

Saint’s Fan drew post 12 and trainer Dallas Stewart is expected to withdraw his charge because of the outside post.

Phat Man, Marco Mischief, Tip Tap Tapizar, and Pat On the Back round out the Lecomte field.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-20-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - McCraken

#6 - El Areeb

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Theory

#9 - Royal Mo 

#10 - Klimt

#11 - Beach Bum


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Handicapping Video of the Week: 2017 Smarty Jones Stakes with Uncontested

The 2017 Smarty Jones Stakes goes as the eight race at Oaklawn Park on Monday, Jan 16 with post time scheduled for 5:38 ET. 

Uncontested is the 2-1 morning line favorite and he might get brave if able to shake loose early. 

Warrior's Club was a head in front of Uncontested in the Kentucky Jockey Club and jockey Robby Albarado will try to keep the favorite in his sights from the opening bell. 

Petrov should be shadowing the top two while saving ground from the inside post under Jose Ortiz.

If the pace gets hot and heavy, look for Rowdy the Warrior to arrive on the scene late. 

2017 FULL CARD SCHEDULE: Daily Santa Anita Full Cards (Jan 16-July 4)

My SANTA ANITA full cards are offered daily from Jan 16 thru July 4 at WinningHorsePicks.com. My SA analysis also includes GOLDEN GATE and/or LAUREL PARK Best Bets plus occasional stakes races from around the country. The SA full cards feature the always popular Pick 5, Early Pick 4, Pick 6, and Late Pick 4 spread tickets.

My Monday Santa Anita Park full card (1-16-17) is ready to purchase at WinningHorsePicks.com