Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Florida Derby + Louisiana Derby Preview

The road to Kentucky Derby 2017 is in high gear this week with a pair of important nine furlong preps starting with the G2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.

Risen Star hero Girvin is the one to beat in the LA Derby. The patient runner is lightly raced and on the improve. Local Hero is the one to catch, Guest Suite is the one to fear late, and Patch tries to give trainer Todd Pletcher another Derby prep victory.

The Florida Derby features impressive late running Fountain of Youth winner Gunnevera but he must overcome a difficult outside draw and a potentially challenging pace scenario. FOY show finisher Three Rules might get brave if able to shake loose early and Always Dreaming might be able to step up and play ball in the big leagues for Pletcher. 

You can view my Florida Derby/LA Derby video preview at the bottom of this blog post.

The two Derby preps last week (Spiral Stakes + Sunland Derby) hardly got the heart pumping.

First up was the Spiral Stakes on March 25 and former claimer Fast and Accurate earned an 82 BSF for his upset win. There was nothing behind him and his speed figure was below par in the slowest derby prep yet.

The Sunland Derby was contested on March 26 and Hence got a 93 BSF for his off the pace victory. There was not much behind him and his speed figure was okay at best.

El Areeb came out of his March 29 workout at Laurel Park with a knee injury and is expected to miss six months. 9th place Rebel finisher Royal Mo drops out of the Top 11.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 4-1-17)

#1 - GUNNEVERA

#2 - McCraken

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Practical Joke

#5 - Battalion Runner

#6 - Tapwrit

#7 - Irish War Cry

#8 - Gormley

#9 - Classic Empire

#10 - Iliad

#11 - Always Dreaming


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

HRN Handicapping Video of the Week: Florida Derby with Gunnevera

My HRN video race of the week is the Florida Derby with Gunnevera, Three Rules, and Always Dreaming.

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Mastery returns in San Felipe

Gunnevera was the road to Kentucky Derby 2017 star of last week with a powerful late running victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 4.

Three Rules carved out solid fractions in the FOY and was chased by Holy Bull winner Irish War Cry, Takaful, and Made You Look, and the latter trio retreated to the back of the pack.

Meanwhile, Gunnevera and Javier Castellano were enjoying the scenery from 10th and last before unleashing a strong late run to cross the line 5+ lengths in front.

Practical Joke rallied from 7th and fought hard to edge a very game Three Rules for the place. It was another six lengths back to Talk Logistics in 4th.

The Gotham was supposed to be a walk in the park for El Areeb but his rider Trevor McCarthy made an early decision to go the front and there was no turning back. He was hounded throughout by True Timber, and eventual winner J Boys Echo took full advantage of the lively fractions and rolled home by 3.5 lengths (102 BSF).

Stalker Cloud Computing was clearly second best in the Gotham and El Areeb held the show in a disappointing performance that can be partly attributed to riding tactics.

Before anyone gets too excited about the Gotham, check out the 0-for-40 Kentucky Derby record for Gotham participants since 1980. 

Two big Derby preps on tap this week beginning with the much anticipated return of Mastery in the San Felipe. He has been my top ranked Derby contender for many months and looks ready to roll off the bench for Bob Baffert.

2-time graded route winner Gormley and impressive G2 San Vicente hero Iliad figure to make Mastery work hard for the money.

The Tampa Bay Derby is a wide open affair and trainer Todd Pletcher has a pair of contenders including Sam F. Davis runner-up Tapwrit.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 3-11-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Gormley

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - McCraken

#5 - Practical Joke

#6 - Gunnevera

#7 - Royal Mo

#8 - Irish War Cry

#9 - El Areeb

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Classic Empire


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Risen Star Recap + Fountain of Youth and Gotham Preview

Girvin picked up 50 Kentucky Derby 2017 qualifying points and basically guaranteed himself a starting spot on the first Saturday in May with a sharp score in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb 25.

Recent maiden winner Local Hero was all alone on the lead but could not keep it going and Girvin stalked inside, moved out in the lane, and won by a comfortable 2-lengths.

Untrapped was always in contention and easily went by Local Hero for the place. The latter just held the show over Guest Suite with 3-2 favorite another 5+ lengths back in 4th. The winning BSF was a respectable 93 but the feeling here is that the New Orleans Derby contenders are a notch or two below the best.

El Areeb rolled home in the Jerome and Withers and figures to be a very short price in the Gotham. He has looked great all winter for trainer Cal Lynch but he keeps beating the same horses on the inner dirt at Aqueduct so his true Derby standing is unknown at this point.

In the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, Irish War Cry tries to remain unbeaten. He defeated Gunnevera in the Holy Bull and that rival is back again, along with new shooters Three Rules and Practical Joke.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 3-4-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - El Areeb

#3 - Gormley

#4 - Irish War Cry

#5 - Three Rules

#7 - McCraken

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Royal Mo

#9 - Battalion Runner

#10 - Classic Empire

#11 - Theroy


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Handicapping video of the week: Fountain of Youth Stakes featuring Irish War Cry

Irish War Cry won the Holy Bull Stakes earlier this year at Gulfstream Park and tries to keep his perfect record intact in the Fountain of Youth on Saturday, March 4.

Gunnevera chased Irish War Cry in the Holy Bull and hopes to get more pace help this time.

Three Rules stretches back out and loves the Gulfstream Park oval, and Practical Joke was one of the top juveniles in the land last year and makes his much anticipated sophomore debut for Chad Brown.

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: McCraken wins Sam F. Davis Stakes

McCraken moved up on many Kentucky Derby 2017 lists following a sharp off the pace tally in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb 11.

McCraken is now 4-for-4 and earned 10 Derby qualifying points in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last fall and another 10 points in Florida last weekend.

I like the fact that McCraken’s trainer Ian Wilkes worked with veteran conditioner Carl Nafzger during Unbridled’s and Street Sense’s Derby-winning campaigns. Mr. Wilkes is going old school with a trio of Derby preps and we already know his promising colt likes Churchill Downs.

Tapwrit was a decent 2nd in the Davis for Pletcher, followed by State of Honor and Wild Shot. Remsen runner-up No Dozing did not show up in a disappointing effort. 

Iliad looked good in the G2 San Vicente (96 BSF) at Santa Anita Park last Sunday. Bob Baffert trained him for his juvenile campaign and Doug "Neill is the conditioner now for Kaleem Shah's promising runner. It looks like the San Felipe/SA Derby for this one.

There are a pair of Derby points races this week beginning with the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Feb 18. Santa Anita Park shippers Sheer Flattery and Ann Arbor Eddie take on locals More Power to Him and Colonel Samsen in the nine furlong synthetic test.

On Presidents’ Day (Monday, Feb 20), Smarty Jones Stakes 1-2-3 finishers Uncontested, Petrov, and Rowdy the Warrior meet again.  

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-18-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - McCraken

#3 - El Areeb

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Three Rules

#6 - Classic Empire

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Royal Mo

#9 - Theory 

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Irish War Cry


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

KENTUCKY DERBY 2017 UPDATE: Guest Suite Wins Lecomte

Guest Suite picked up ten Kentucky Derby 2017 points in an off the pace tally on a muddy (sealed) main track in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan 21.

The speed figure for the Lecomte was below par and it looks as though it was a weak race. Winner Guest Suite is slowly improving for Neil Howard and should continue to progress.

If you are keeping score at home, all four Derby points races this year (Jerome, Sham, Smarty Jones, Lecomte) were contested on a wet track. The top performers in the first three listed races were on or near the lead throughout and each race produced a lopsided win and/or strung-out fields. Guest Suite rallied from 6th and earned a subpar 82 BSF in the Lecomte. The jury is still out on Uncontested (Smarty Jones), El Areeb (Jerome),  and 1-2 Sham finishers Gormley and American Anthem.

There was not a Derby points race this week. Next week (Feb 4), the Withers from Aqueduct, the Holy Bull from Gulfstream, and the Robert Lewis from Santa Anita are each worth a total of 17 Derby points to the Top 4 finishers (10-4-2-1).  

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-29-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - McCraken

#6 - El Areeb

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Theory

#9 - Royal Mo 

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Faja


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Gormley Strikes Back

Gormley took care of business in the slop and picked up 10 Kentucky Derby 2017 points in a narrow head victory over American Anthem in the Grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, Jan. 7.

Gormley won the G1 FrontRunner on a fast track in his second career start before a less than ideal start and wide trip derailed him in the G1 BC Juvenile. In the Sham, he shadowed American Anthem from the get-go and prevailed in a hard fought battle from start to finish.

American Anthem gave Gormley everything he could handle but two turn graded stakes experience ruled the day. The Baffert trainee has plenty of upside and it was thirteen lengths back to show finisher Big Hit.  

Just like the Jerome a week prior, the Sham was contested on a wet track. The top performers in both races are obviously talented but wet tracks frequently produce lopsided victories with strung-out fields. Let’s see what El Areeb, Gormley, and American Anthem can do in upcoming fast track graded routes vs. tougher competition. With that in mind, American Anthem moves up to #13 on my “Next Nine” but will not enter the “Exceptional Eleven” just yet.  

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-15-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - McCraken

#6 - El Areeb

#7 - Beach Bum

#8 - Royal Mo 

#9 - Klimt

#10 - Theory

#11 - Practical Joke


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: El Areeb Enters Picture

El Areeb is the latest Kentucky Derby 2017 flavor of the month following a facile victory in the Grade 3 Jerome at Aqueduct on Jan 2.

Blowout wins on wet tracks are typically not duplicated under a different set of circumstances next time out so right now I would say that I am cautiously optimistic regarding El Areeb. He is obviously talented but must prove himself on dry land against bigger and better foes. Time will tell if he is a legit Derby contender.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-7-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Beach Bum

#6 - Royal Mo

#7 - McCracken

#8 - Klimt

#9 - El Areeb

#10 - Theory

#11 - Practical Joke


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Kentucky Derby 2017 update: G1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity preview

Later today at Los Alamitos Race Course, my top ranked Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Mastery makes his much anticipated first start around two turns in the Grade I Los Alamitos Futurity.

Mastery easily captured both of his dirt sprint starts in wire-to-wire fashion including the Grade 3 Bob Hope at Del Mar on Nov 19. He only faces four rivals at Los Al and debut maiden sprint winner Bobby Abu Dhabi might be able to give him an early test.

Dangerfield, a distant 3rd last time in the G3 Delta Jackpot is also entered, along with debut route winner Show Me Da Lute (trained by Bob Baffert) and maiden Irap.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 12-11-16)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Beach Bum

#6 - Royal Mo

#7 - McCracken

#8 - Klimt

#9 - Takaful

#10 - Theory

#11 - Silver Assault


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Kentucky Derby 2017 update: Breeders' Cup Juvenile preview

The 2016 Breeders' Cup Juvenile will be run later this weekend at Santa Anita Park and seven of my Top 11 Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders are entered. 

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 10-29-16)

#1 - Silver Assault

#2 - Klimt

#3 - Not This Time

#4 - Three Rules

#5 - Theory

#6 - Gormley

#7 - Classic Empire 

#8 - Straight Fire

#9 - Favorable Outcome

#10 - Mastery

#11 - Term of Art

You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2016 video preview

The 2016 Breeders' Cup Juvenile is shaping up as a competitive race with a good mix of speed horses, stalkers, and closers.

Syndergaard and Gormley are the early threats and the latter has the home court advantage following a wire job win in the G1 FrontRunner. Undefeated Gulfstream shipper Three Rules should be forwardly placed as well.

Klimt, the FrontRunner runner-up, should be stalking the pace for trainer Bob Baffert. G1 Breeders' Futurity hero Classic Empire and Theory, 2-for-2 at six furlongs for trainer Todd Pletcher, should also be tracking the front runners.

If the early pace heats up, look for Churchill Downs shipper Not This Time to pick up the pieces.

Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update (10-12-16)

The 2016 FrontRunner, Champagne, and Breeders’ Futurity are in books and that means it is time for another Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 10-12-16)

#1 - Silver Assault

#2 - Klimt

#3 - Not This Time

#4 - Three Rules

#5 - Straight Fire

#6 - Theory 

#7 - Gormley

#8 - Classic Empire 

#9 - Favorable Outcome

#10 - Big Gray Rocket

#11 - Term of Art

You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Kentucky Derby 2016 Contenders: The First Step

Kentucky Derby 2017 is right around the corner. Well, not quite, but we are well into the month of September and it is time to roll out my annual Derby contenders list. 

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders

#1 - Silver Assault

#2 - Klimt

#3 - Not This Time

#4 - Three Rules

#5 - Straight Fire

#6 - Plum Dandy

#7 - Favorable Outcome

#8 - Big Gray Rocket

#9 - Term of Art

#10 - Theory

#11 - Vibe

You can read my entire first Kentucky Derby 2017 blog at The Runaway Horse. 

* Nyquist photo by Stacy Edwards