The highly regarded McKinzie removed blinkers in the Sham for trainer Bob Baffert and relaxed early and finished up nicely in the one mile affair under jockey Mike Smith. There was probably not much behind him but he looked good winning and improved in his second route try.
At Gulfstream Park on January 6, Mask returned from a layoff for Chad Brown and made all of the running in a very easy tally in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. He trounced a couple of solid runners, Bal Harbour (Todd Pletcher) and Dak Attack(Dale Romans).
Jerome Stakes
My ninth ranked Derby contender, Firenze Fire, gets back in action in the rescheduled Jerome at Aqeuduct on Jan. 13, and he is the 3-5 morning line favorite. The Jerome was originally slated to go on Jan. 1, but extreme weather conditions forced the race to be canceled.
Lecomte Stakes
My fifth ranked Derby contender, Principe Guilherme, drew post 12 and was made the 5-2 morning line favorite in the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on January 13. He will meet, among others, Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up Instilled Regard. McKinzie has already come out of the Los Al Futurity to capture the aforementioned Sham Stakes.
Smarty Jones Stakes
The Oaklawn Park Kentucky Derby trail gets underway on Jan. 15 with the Smarty Jones Stakes. The one mile contest drew a field of seven headed by the speedy Mourinho from the Bob Baffert barn. Navistar for Todd Pletcher and Combatant for Steve Asmussen also deserve respect.
In other Derby contender news, Shivermetimbers faded to 4th in the G3 Sham and drops off my list. He appears to have distance limitations. Greyvitos recently underwent minor ankle surgery and will not be able to run again until April. That all but eliminates him from Derby consideration and he also drops off my list. Noble Indy looked good winning an allowance route at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 11 and moves up a few spots.
McKinzie capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included grade one tallies in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner. In his final 2017 start, he experienced a very wide trip from an outer post in the the BC Juvenile and ended up a good 3rd considering the lost ground. He deserves the Eclipse Award for top juvenile in the land, and has always been my number one ranked Derby contender. He was originally slated to return in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10, but a muscle pull has altered those plans. He is now expected to have two Kentucky Derby preps, beginning with the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 10, followed by the Santa Anita Derby. He should return to the work tab soon.
Derby Points (14)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: He ran the best overall race in his place finish in the G1 Champagne, and his Today’s Racing Digest numbers went through the roof in a visually impressive score in the BC Juvenile. He has been part of my Derby list all along, and following a training stint at Stonestreet Farm in Ocala, he was expected to venture to Palm Meadows to join the rest of Chad Brown’s Florida string the week of Dec 18. He has yet to return to the work tab, and the Holy Bull is coming up too rapidly on Feb 3. He might begin his 3-year-old campaign in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 3.
Derby Points (24)
(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (19/36) at Santa Anita Park on Dec. 28.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up crossed the line first in the G1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (137 Final Rating) but was disqualified and placed 3rd. Let there be no doubt that he was best at Los Al and it was nice to see him relax and finish strong. Also, McKinzie exited that heat to win the G3 Sham on Jan. 6. He is getting close to his first workout of the year and his next start is undecided, but it will most likely occur at Oaklawn Park or Santa Anita Park.
Derby Points (14)
(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Comments: He is technically 3-for-3 (placed first via DQ in Los Al Futurity), but let there be no doubt that his stablemate Solomini was best at Los Alamitos Race Course on 12-9-17. He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 6. He is expected to race one or two more times at Oaklawn Park (Rebel, Arkansas Derby) and/or Santa Anita (San Felipe, SA Derby) prior to the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (20)
(5) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)
Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :50.40 (5/14) at Fair Grounds on Jan 8.
Comments: Followed up a romping extended sprint victory at Churchill Downs on Nov. 10 with an even more impressive two turn allowance score at Fair Grounds on Dec. 16. The sky is the limit for this one and he is the 5-2 morning line favorite in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Jan. 13.
(6) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (MSW, GP, 12-3-17)
Comments: He made his career debut at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 3, and in that seven panel affair, he went straight to the front and cruised home by 8+ lengths. He returned in an entry level allowance route at Gulfstream on Thursday, January 11, and in that exciting event, he hooked up with promising Mark Casse runner Mississippi from start to finish. John Velazquez confidently handled Noble Indy through the stretch and he gamely prevailed by 3/4ths of a length. Mississippi was 6+ lengths clear of the show, and the final time was 1:42.52. I will have a speed figure for that race next week. Look for this colt to show up in a stakes race in the near future.
(7) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Iroquois Stakes, CD, 9-16-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :50.22 (58/97) at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6.
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing)
Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Iorquois. His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings improved in each of his first three starts, and he broke from post 12 and rallied from last to split the field in the BC Juvenile. Trainer Dale Romans says that he has yet to put everything together in the morning and afternoon, and he has every right to improve as a 3-year-old. He has recently returned to training in South Florida, and got back on the work tab on Jan. 6.
Derby Points (4)
(8) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.33 (21/97) at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6.
Comments: He stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns with ease in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on Oct. 7. He made a bit of a middle move in the BC Juvenile but was basically done after six furlongs in a very disappointing performance (9th of 12). He enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign and returned to work at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6.
Derby Points (10)
(9) FIRENZE FIRE (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Champagne Stakes, BEL, 10-7-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :50.88 (6/15) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Jan 8.
Comments: 2017 Grade 3 Sanford and Grade 1 Champagne winner made a bit of a middle move before flattening out to finish 7th in the BC Juvenile. He was supposed to run in the Jerome at Aqueduct on Jan. 1, but live racing was canceled due to frigid temperatures. The Jerome has been rescheduled for Jan. 13, and he is the 3-5 morning line favorite.
Derby Points (10)
(10) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.20 (3/6) at Bridlewood Farm on Jan. 12.
Comments: Won 3 of his 4 juvenile outings including a smart surface switching tally in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and could make his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. The Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 17 is also an option if he needs another week.
Derby Points (10)
(11) MASK (Tapit - Hidden Expression, by Yonaguska)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (Lane’s End Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 152 (Mucho Macho Man, GP, 1-6-18)
Comments: The $685,000 purchase easily won his sprint debut at Belmont Park on 10-20-17 and was on cruise control throughout in an effortless wire job win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes (one-turn mile) at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6. The Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 17 might be his next assignment.
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Enticed, (13) Instilled Regard, (14) Tiz Mischief, (15) Mississippi, (16) Navistar, (17) Combatant, (18) Avery Island, (19) Peace, (20) Nero
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