Instilled Regard started improving once he stretched out to two turns, beginning with his maiden win at Santa Anita Park last fall. He ended his juvenile campaign with a troubled 3rd in the G1 Los Al Futurity (placed 2nd via DQ). He shipped to Fair Grounds for his 2018 bow on Jan. 13 and defeated post time favorite Principe Guilherme by 3+ lengths in the G3 Lecomte Stakes. Following a trio of workouts at Santa Anita Park, he is back in New Orleans for the Risen Star (50-20-10-5). This is the earliest prep to award 50 Derby points to the winner, so it is basically a win and you’re in event.
Principe Guilherme aired in his first two outings before landing the place in the aforementioned Lecomte (wide journey from outer post). He shows two Fair Grounds works since his last start and will try to work out a trip from post 9 in the Risen Star.
Noble Indy won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park and makes his stakes debut in the Risen Star for trainer Todd Pletcher. He will start from post 2 and figures to be forwardly placed under John Velazquez as the 5-1 third betting choice.
The field for the 2018 Risen Star Stakes: (1) High North 15-1, (2) Noble Indy 5-1, (3) Givemeaminit 15-1, (4) Snapper Sinclair 8-1, (5) Instilled Regard 8-5, (6) Supreme Aura 8-1, (7) Bravazo 8-1, (8) Kentucky Club 30-1, (9) Principe Guilherme 7-2, (10) Ebben 30-1.
The other Kentucky Derby 2018 points race on Feb. 17 is the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby (10-4-2-1) at Golden Gate Fields. The California Derby was the final local prep for the El Camino Real, and Southern California invader Choo Choo defeated local hope Mugaritz by a bit less than two lengths that day, with Intimidate checking in 3rd.
Let’s look back at the recently completed Kentucky Derby points races, beginning with the Sam F. Davis Stakes from Tampa Bay Downs:
Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes (Tampa Bay Downs, 2-10-18)
Last year’s G2 Remsen hero Catholic Boy made his much anticipated return in Florida and was the overwhelming favorite despite having just four published workouts in 2018. As expected, Flameaway went to the front and quickly established early command in a race without much pace. Catholic Boy made a run at him, but he never could get by and fell a 1/2 length short in an okay start to his sophomore season. Vino Rosso ran in spots and was well clear of Hollywood Star in 3rd. The other two outsiders were far back as expected. Flameaway is not nominated to the Triple Crown but his connections are going to rectify that by paying $6,000 before the late deadline on March 19. Like many early season Derby preps this year, we are not learning much as early/pressing types are tripping-out and dominating these winter routes with compact fields.
Grade 3 Withers Stakes (Aqueduct, 2-3-18, 150 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Last year’s G2 Nashua winner and G2 Remsen runner-up Avery Island shipped back to New York after a quartet of 2018 workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee was always well placed under Joe Bravo and was clearly up to the task off a layoff in a handy two length tally over the hard trying Firenze Fire. Marconi was well clear of the other two entrants in 3rd. It is tough to get a read on these winter Derby preps in New York, but at least Avery Island proved that he could handle nine furlongs in a rare early season point race at that distance.
Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream Park, 2-3-18, 156 Final Rating)
Audible burst onto the Derby trail for trainer Todd Pletcher with an authoritative 5+ length stalk/pounce score over Free Drop Billy, who was 7+ clear of show finisher Tiz Mischief. Enticed was a disappointing 4th and the other five entrants were far back. The top two ran well, and this was just a starting point for late runner Tiz Mischief. There was not much pace in this affair, and the jury is still out on the overall strength of this Derby prep.
Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita Park, 2-3-18, 138 Final Rating)
Another Derby prep with a forwardly placed winner. Lombo, returning in two weeks following a front winning maiden sprint win, shot to the lead and never relinquished his advantage in an 8-1 upset over late running place finisher Ayacara. Dark Vader stalked the pace and was best of the rest in 3rd. G3 Sham 4th place finisher Shivermetimbers disappointed again, and post time favorite Peaceadded blinkers and never got involved. This was not a strong Derby prep but Ayacara was making up ground for Team Desormeaux and could hit the board in future Derby preps.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Mississippi, runner-up to Noble Indy at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 11, missed by a neck and was clearly second best again at the Gulf on Feb. 4. He could show up in the Fountain of Youth Stakes next.
Smarty Jones Stakes winner Mourinho continues to prepare for the Feb. 19 Southwest (Kentucky Derby points race). He traveled seven panels in 1:26 (1/2) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 7. Smarty Jones runner-up Combatant breezed 5f in 1:01.20 (4/18) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 7. He is also Southwest bound.
Trainer Bob Baffert might have a new Derby trail runner. Restoring Hope (Giant’s Causeway - Symbol of Freedom, by Tapit) cruised to an easy two turn maiden win in his third lifetime start at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 2. He returned to work 4f in 47.60 (4/10) on Feb. 11 and is expected to show up in a Derby points race in the near future.
Montauk is officially off the Derby trail for trainer Todd Pletcher. His only start was a romping win last fall, and he was unlikely to make the Derby anyway, but a minor throat issue sealed his fate. He could be an important 3-year-old later this year.
Hollywood Star finished a disappointing 4th in his sophomore debut in the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes and drops off my list. He could go better next time if he gets more pace help but is not a Derby quality colt at this time.
Instilled Regard capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :47.80 (6/25) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: The 2-time grade one-winning juvenile has had three works this year following a minor muscle pull. The G1 BC Juvenile show finisher remains on target for the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10, and Javier Castellano takes over the riding duties.
Derby Points (14)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (5/20) at Palm Meadows on Feb. 10.
Comments: The 2-year-old champ got back on the work tab on Jan. 21 and has been on a steady once a week training pattern since. The G1 BC Juvenile hero is on course for his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 3.
Derby Points (24)
(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (13/67) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up had his number taken down in the G1 Alamitos CashCall Futurity (placed 3rd via disqualification). He got sick earlier this winter and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. He will have two Derby preps, and they will most likely occur at Oaklawn Park and/or Santa Anita Park.
Derby Points (14)
(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.20 (3/53) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10.
Comments: He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6. He got back to work on Jan. 21 and is expected to race two more times at Oaklawn Park (Rebel, Arkansas Derby) and/or Santa Anita (San Felipe, SA Derby) prior to the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (20)
(5) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.12 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 10.
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park and will make his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb. 17. He drew post position 2 in the Risen Star and will once again be ridden by John Velazquez. He is the 5-1 third choice on the morning line.
(6) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)
Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (8/37) at Fair Grounds on Feb. 5.
Comments: Followed up a pair of romping victories with a wide runner-up finish from an outer post in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Jan. 13. He will have to overcome an outer post once again in the Risen Star. In that upcoming event, he will break from post position 9 in a 10-horse field. He went wire-to-wire in his first two starts before settling off the pace in the Lecomte. Maybe jockey Florent Geroux gets aggressive in the Risen Star.
Derby Points (4)
(7) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (Lecomte Stakes, FG, 1-13-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13 (2/8) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10.
Comments: Lost his first two sprints and turned the corner over a route of ground in his last three starts. After earning his diploma at Santa Anita on 10-29-17, he was placed 2nd via disqualification in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. I love his tactical speed, and he proved that he could ship and win last time. He drew well in post 5 and is the 8-5 morning line favorite in the Risen Star Stakes.
Derby Points (14)
(8) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. It is possible that he will have one more race before the first Saturday in May, and that would be the Florida Derby on March 31.
Derby Points (10)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)
Comments: The G1 Breeders’ Futurity hero put his BC Juvenile flop behind him with a solid place finish in his sophomore return in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to the Holy Bull and should be fitter next time. He matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating at the Gulf on Feb. 3.
Derby Points (14)
(10) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp surface switching victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and finished a solid if unspectacular 2nd in his comeback race in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. He rallied into tepid splits in the Davis and was not fully cranked for his first start of 2018. He is expected to have one more Derby prep in either the Louisiana Derby on March 24 or the Florida Derby a week later.
Derby Points (14)
(11) FIRENZE FIRE (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Jerome Stakes, AQU, 1-13-18)
Comments: We are starting to get a very good gauge on his true ability after seven career starts. He is 4-for-5 in one-turn races (won G3 Sanford, G1 Champagne, and listed Jerome), and 0-for-2 in routes. In his last start in the G3 Withers at a mile and an eighth, he was a grinding 2nd in an okay effort (144 Final Rating). The next Derby prep at Aqueduct is the Gotham Stakes on March 10, followed by the Wood Memorial on April 7. He could run in both, or just the latter.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Avery Island, (13) Mourinho, (14) Combatant, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Mississippi, (17) Restoring Hope, (18) Enticed, (19) Vino Rosso, (20) Ayacara
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