Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Eight Rings capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Before meeting the first “exceptional eleven” of 2020, let’s look at some recent historical facts.
Having experience as a 2-year-old is a major plus. Justify ended the Apollo jinx in 2018. Apollo won the Kentucky Derby in 1882. He was an unraced 2-year-old, and it took 136 years for another late blooming sophomore to break the streak. This remains a very strong angle.
The last three Derby winners did not graduate until their 3-year-old seasons (Country House, Justify, Always Dreaming). All of the Derby winners from 2002-2016 graduated during their juvenile campaigns. During that 15 year run, starting with War Emblem and ending with Nyquist, 13 of those runners graduated by October 4. Orb and Smarty Jones were the exceptions. They graduated in November.
From 2000-2003, 3 of the 4 Derby winners had their final prep in the Wood Memorial (Funny Ride, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus). It has been crickets for the Wood ever since.
From 2004-2019, most of the Derby winners exited the Arkansas Derby (4), Florida Derby (5), or SA Derby (4). You can make the Florida Derby a six pack if you count Maximum Security. The other Derby winners with different final preps were Animal Kingdom (Spiral Stakes), Mind That Bird (Sunland Derby), and Street Sense (Blue Grass).
Looking back, some of my initial September Derby blog juvenile contenders panned out, like my early 2010-2011 Number 1’s Stay Thirsty and Alpha. Both won the G1 Travers during their 3-year-old seasons. Others turn out to be disappointments like Fortify, and others got hurt along the way like Mastery.
International Star was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2015 contender, and he was scratched the morning of the Derby. Three of my original eleven Derby contenders made it to the starting gate that year including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The other two were Frosted and Carpe Diem.
Mohaymen was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2016 contender, and the 4-time grade 2 winner (Nashua, Remsen, Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth) finished 4th on the first Saturday in May.
Endorsed was my first number one Derby 2019 contender, and he was shelved after the Champagne. He did not make the Derby, but has shown promise in New York this summer with an allowance sprint win, a 2nd in the Curlin Stakes, and a solid 4th in the Travers. He is one to watch heading into 2020. Three of my original September “exceptional eleven” contenders made it to the starting gate in Derby 2019 (Code of Honor, Game Winner, Roadster).
An ideal Kentucky Derby contender would have a solid juvenile foundation, a blended speed-stamina pedigree, sharp graded stakes form, tactical speed, quality late pace ratings, and winning connections. Strong pre-Derby works are the icing on the cake.
The 2020 Derby points race series kicked off with the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs Sept. 14. Dennis’ Moment looks like a good one for Dale Romans, and he figures to vie for favoritism in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with recent G1 American Pharoah Stakes hero Eight Rings.
Iroquois Stakes (G3) Recap (9-14-19) - Winner: Dennis’ Moment ($2.80)
This was a better than average renewal of the Iroquois, at least in regards to the top two finishers. The pace was honest and strong favorite Dennis’ Moment stalked from fourth, got the jump on Scabbard, and scored comfortably by a length and three-quarters. Irad Ortiz Jr. had the winner under wraps. Scabbard did not have the smoothest trip and was well clear of the rest. Lebda chased the pace and held 3rd, and was followed by Letmeno, Rowdy Yates, January Won, Flute Maker, Automate, Juggernaut, and Zyramid.
American Pharoah Stakes (G1) Recap (9-27-19) - Winner: Eight Rings ($4.40)
It looks like we have a solid BC Juvenile (G1) favorite. Eight Rings was so impressive in his debut, but I was not quite sure what we would get from him in this spot after he behaved badly and dumped his rider as the strong favorite in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). His new rider John Velazquez was not playing around in this race. As soon as the gates opened, he shot straight to the front through fractions of 23.34, 47.06, and 1:11.71. He was clear throughout and the result was never in doubt. He increased his lead throughout and won by 6-lengths over inside stalker American Theorem. Storm the Court was a neck better than Express Train in the battle for 3rd, and they were followed by Shoplifted, Defense Wins, Fore Left, Nucky, and Collusion Illusion (pulled up, walked off). The winner was much the best, and the runner-up was clearly second best in a quality effort. The others never really got involved.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2020 Contenders (9-29-19)
(1) GOUVERNEUR MORRIS (Constitution - Addison Run, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Team Valor International & WinStar Farm LLC)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.80 (2/11) at Belmont Park on Sept. 27.
Comments: This was a very strong debut in the SAR slop at 5.5f on Sept. 2. He was bumped at the break and chased the pace, cruised up outside in the stretch, and finished with plenty in reserve to win by a very easy nine lengths. He has worked three times since his bow, including a Sept. 20 bullet. Todd Pletcher seems to have some talented youngsters, and this one is targeting the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland Oct. 5.
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(2) EIGHT RINGS (Empire Maker - Purely Hot, by Pure Prize)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables)
Comments: He looked like the real deal dusting sharp next-out winner Express Train in his 5.5f debut at DMR Aug. 4. The G1 Del Mar Futurity should have been a stroll in the park, but he ducked in sharply while bumping into Storm the Court, and both tossed their riders. He worked three times at SA after that fiasco, and returned with a vengeance in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes Sept. 28. In the latter race, he went straight to the front and was never seriously threatened in an easy two turn victory. He is the early favorite for the G1 BC Juvenile Nov. 1.
Derby Points (10)
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(3) DENNIS’ MOMENT (Tiznow - Transplendid, by Elusive Quality)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing LLC)
Comments: Clipped heels and dumped Robby Albarado in his June 23 bow at CD, and it has been all smiles since. He graduated by 19+ lengths in a 7f affair at Ellis Park July 27, and followed that up with a sharp win in the first points race in Churchill’s G3 Iroquois Sept. 14. Miguel Mena was aboard for both wins. He has all the tools to be a player on the Derby trail.
Derby Points (10)
You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse
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