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Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby 2020. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby 2020. Show all posts
Saturday, March 7, 2020
Gotham Stakes + Busher 2020 Video Picks
Check out my Gotham Stakes & Busher Invitational 2020 video from the Big A.
San Felipe Stakes & Santa Ysabel Stakes 2020 Video Picks
Check out my San Felipe Stakes & Santa Ysabel Stakes 2020 video from Santa Anita Park.
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Fountain of Youth Stakes 2020 Video Featuring Dennis' Moment
Check out my Davona Dale Stakes & Fountain of Youth Stakes 2020 video from Gulfstream Park.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Report for 2-23-20 Featuring Mr. Monomoy
We had our busiest week yet on the road to Kentucky Derby 2020. There were two divisions of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), and the winners both received 50 points (Mr. Monomoy, Modernist). El Camino Real hero Azul Coast picked up 10 Derby points and an automatic berth into the Preakness, and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) hero Silver Prospector bounced back in the Southwest Stakes (G3). If those races were not enough for you, Bob Baffert unveiled exciting prospect Charlatan at Santa Anita Park.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Azul Coast capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
There were no points races on the docket this week, but the lull in the schedule will not last. Things really start heating up with the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park Feb. 29, followed by a busy month of March!
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
Risen Star Stakes (G2) Division I Recap (2-15-20) - Winner: Mr. Monomoy ($17.00)
Mr. Monomoy was the only LeComte (G3) pace player around at the finish of that race. Fast forward to the Risen Star, and jockey Florent Geroux did not waste any time. He went straight to the front and set a controlled pace, and that was the key to success. Blackberry Wine made a run at him in the middle, but he was swatted away, and Mr. Monomoy kept on finding in a sharp victory by 2-1/2 lengths. Enforceable rallied from last to edge Silver State for the place by a 1/2 length. My value top choice Farmington Road raced wide throughout from post 10 and seemed to be finding his best stride late. Digital saved ground stalking the pace from the inside post and worked his way up to 2nd in the stretch, but found the distance out of his reach and ended up 5th. Scabbard ended up 6th from post 11. I think we can confidently give up on him at this point. He has failed to replicate his strong Iroquois (G3) runner-up finish in three subsequent stakes starts. Blackberry Wine faded to 7th, and behind him were Moon Over Miami, Ready to Roll, Perfect Revenge, and an extremely tired Shashashakemeup. This was by far the stronger division of the Risen Star, and I will take the top four finishers over any exiting the Modernist race. That being said, the Fair Grounds road to the Derby is usually a bust.
Risen Star Stakes (G2) Division II Recap (2-15-20) - Winner: Modernist ($27.60)
What happened to Anneau d’Or? This was the weaker division of the Risen Star, and he was a standout on paper, but that is why they run the races. Ny Traffic and Modernist battled on the lead, and the latter shook clear in the stretch and won by a length and a half for Bill Mott. Major Fed stalked outside and got past Ny Traffic to secure 2nd by a neck. Mailman Money was within striking range and made a middle move before flattening out to finish 4th. Mr. Big News was up for 5th over Lynn’s Map and Finnick the Fierce, and they were followed by Excession, a highly disappointing Anneau d’Or, a very tired Liam’s Lucky Charm, and 106-1 outsider Fame To Famous. As expected, this was the slower division, and that makes it all the more strange that Anneau d’Or failed to fire. This was a blown opportunity to get into the Derby. Instead, Modernist picked up 50 points, and that should be more than enough to get into the gate on the first Saturday in May. I like his early-pressing speed, and he has already won twice at a mile and an eighth. One the negative side, he is slower than all of the top contenders in this division. There is still time to run faster, and he will need to next time. The first division was run in 1:50.43, and the second division was completed in 1:51.28 (similar pace scenarios).
You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse...
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Azul Coast capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
There were no points races on the docket this week, but the lull in the schedule will not last. Things really start heating up with the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park Feb. 29, followed by a busy month of March!
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
Risen Star Stakes (G2) Division I Recap (2-15-20) - Winner: Mr. Monomoy ($17.00)
Mr. Monomoy was the only LeComte (G3) pace player around at the finish of that race. Fast forward to the Risen Star, and jockey Florent Geroux did not waste any time. He went straight to the front and set a controlled pace, and that was the key to success. Blackberry Wine made a run at him in the middle, but he was swatted away, and Mr. Monomoy kept on finding in a sharp victory by 2-1/2 lengths. Enforceable rallied from last to edge Silver State for the place by a 1/2 length. My value top choice Farmington Road raced wide throughout from post 10 and seemed to be finding his best stride late. Digital saved ground stalking the pace from the inside post and worked his way up to 2nd in the stretch, but found the distance out of his reach and ended up 5th. Scabbard ended up 6th from post 11. I think we can confidently give up on him at this point. He has failed to replicate his strong Iroquois (G3) runner-up finish in three subsequent stakes starts. Blackberry Wine faded to 7th, and behind him were Moon Over Miami, Ready to Roll, Perfect Revenge, and an extremely tired Shashashakemeup. This was by far the stronger division of the Risen Star, and I will take the top four finishers over any exiting the Modernist race. That being said, the Fair Grounds road to the Derby is usually a bust.
Risen Star Stakes (G2) Division II Recap (2-15-20) - Winner: Modernist ($27.60)
What happened to Anneau d’Or? This was the weaker division of the Risen Star, and he was a standout on paper, but that is why they run the races. Ny Traffic and Modernist battled on the lead, and the latter shook clear in the stretch and won by a length and a half for Bill Mott. Major Fed stalked outside and got past Ny Traffic to secure 2nd by a neck. Mailman Money was within striking range and made a middle move before flattening out to finish 4th. Mr. Big News was up for 5th over Lynn’s Map and Finnick the Fierce, and they were followed by Excession, a highly disappointing Anneau d’Or, a very tired Liam’s Lucky Charm, and 106-1 outsider Fame To Famous. As expected, this was the slower division, and that makes it all the more strange that Anneau d’Or failed to fire. This was a blown opportunity to get into the Derby. Instead, Modernist picked up 50 points, and that should be more than enough to get into the gate on the first Saturday in May. I like his early-pressing speed, and he has already won twice at a mile and an eighth. One the negative side, he is slower than all of the top contenders in this division. There is still time to run faster, and he will need to next time. The first division was run in 1:50.43, and the second division was completed in 1:51.28 (similar pace scenarios).
You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse...
Mine That Bird Derby 2020 Video Featuring Sir Rick
Check out my Sunland Park video featuring the Island Fashion Stakes & Mine That Bird Derby.
El Camino Real Derby Video Featuring Azul Coast
Check out my El Camino Real Derby video featuring Azul Coast.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Report for 2-14-20 Featuring Nadal & Sole Volante
Sole Volante is the latest Kentucky Derby 2020 points race series winner, but a highly regarded sophomore not running in a points race stole the show last weekend at Santa Anita Park. Nadal became a graded winner in just his second career start for Bob Baffert, and he defeated 2-year-old champion and BC Juvenile hero Storm the Court in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at seven furlongs.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Nadal capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
The El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields is the only 10 points race this week, and the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds has been split into two divisions. The first place finisher in both divisions on the Risen Star will each receive 50 points, so they are essentially win and you’re in races.
The first division of the Risen Star (race 12) includes the top three finishers from the LeComte Stakes (Enforceable, Silver State, Mr. Monomoy). Anneau d’Or is the strong favorite in the second division (races 13). The BC Juvenile & Los Al Futurity runner-up adds blinkers and gets the services of Joel Rosario.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) Recap (2-8-20) - Winner: Sole Volante ($13.60)
We were supposed to learn more about Independence Hall in this race, but Sole Volante stole the spotlight with a late running victory. Chapalu and Premier Star set sail for the early lead and Independence Hall sat the right behind them. Those three separated themselves from the pack after an opening half-mile in 46.52. Independence Hall got past the tired top pair but Sole Volante was hot on his heels and went right on by in the stretch to score by 2-1/2 lengths. Independence Hall was 11+ clear of show finisher Ajaaweed. The latter was just too far back and just outfinished Tiz Rye Time by a neck. No Getting Over Me was next, and Premier Star and Chapalu were far behind the others. Sole Volante seemed best as a turf router before this race, but he won’t be returning to turf any time soon. As for Independence Hall, this is the second straight somewhat disappointing performance. His Nashua (G3) romp was outstanding, but he made mental mistakes vs. nothing in his Jerome victory, and he seemed a bit too eager to go after the two early runners in this spot. I am really starting to think that he does not want to go nine or ten furlongs. Ajaaweed has stamina but lacks gears. He might keep picking up minor awards vs. graded company.
Hot Prospects: Spa City
This Street Sense colt might end up being a good one for Kiaran McLaughlin. He improved in each of his three Gulfstream starts. He clearly is not a sprinter and ran out of ground in his 6f debut. He got up for 2nd behind a romper at one mile second time out. Again, stamina is not the path to success in one turn mile races. He tipped his hand at a mile and an eighth Feb. 8. In that race, he tracked the pace and gamely graduated by a length, and top pair finished 14+ lengths in front of the rest. Look for him to join the points race chase in the near future.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2020 Contenders (2-14-20)
(1) GOUVERNEUR MORRIS (Constitution - Addison Run, by Unbridled’s Song) - Previous Ranking (#1)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Team Valor International & WinStar Farm LLC)
Comments: He has been my top Derby dog since I started my blog last September. In a pair of 2019 starts, he ran off the screen in his dirt sprint debut in the slop at Saratoga, and finished a determined 2nd from the outside post in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) second time out. After spending a few weeks at WinStar Farm following his second career start at Keeneland, he returned to Todd Pletcher’s barn in Florida in December 2019, and worked once a week like clockwork beginning on Dec. 22. He made his sophomore debut in an optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 14. He was the heavy favorite in that mile and forty yards affair, and he was solid throughout. He tracked front runner Untitled and gradually wore that one down to score by a length and a quarter. Jockey John Velazquez had to work on him a bit, and he seemed to have decent energy in the late going. This was a nice first step for him, and there is little to no doubt that he was not fully cranked for this. Just like all of these Derby hopefuls, we will learn more in the coming weeks.
Derby Points (4)
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(2) THOUSAND WORDS (Pioneerof the Nile - Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy) - Previous Ranking (#2)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stable & Spendthrift Farm)
Comments: $1 million purchase is now 3-for-3 after capturing his second points race in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) Feb. 1, and you know he was not fully cranked. There is much to like here. It just about goes without saying that Baffert knows how to prepare a horse for the Derby. This one is very classy individual and I like the fight he showed in the Los Al Futurity (G2). He turned away BC Juvenile (G1) runner-up Anneau d’Oro that day, and in the Lewis, he took dirt to the face while racing inside and behind horses. He does not blow the competition away. Rather, he just keeps coming after you with those long, grinding strides, and he sure seems to have a will to win. All of his wins were accomplished using different tactics. He stalked wide in his bow, dueled second time out, and closed from the inside last time. Those traits should come in handy as we continue down the Derby trail, and it sure seems like he is just getting warmed up at a mile and a sixteenth. On another positive note, he handled a wet track just fine at Los Alamitos late last year.
Derby Points (20)
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(3) TIZ THE LAW (Constitution - Tizfiz, by Tiznow) - Previous Ranking (#4)
Trainer (Barclay Tagg) - Owner (Sackatoga Stable)
Latest Workout: 4f in 50.00 (10/15) at Palm Meadows Training Center Feb. 10.
Comments: The talented NY-bred is 3-for-4 with a 2nd, and his lone loss was a troubled, close-up 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) on a wet track at Churchill Downs Nov. 30. That is a bit of a concern because we have seen the Derby run over a wet track numerous times recently. His Holy Bull (G2) return was excellent, and it is always a good sign when a good juvenile runs fast in his sophomore debut. I really like his tactical speed, and he finishes his races in fine order. I am not thrilled with the lugging in last time, and there was probably nothing behind him at Gulfstream that day. He remains a very promising Derby hopeful, but I never get carried away with these Jan/Feb points race winners. They just never seem to win the Derby anymore. He is targeting the Florida Derby.
Derby Points (22)
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(4) DENNIS’ MOMENT (Tiznow - Transplendid, by Elusive Quality) - Previous Ranking (#6)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing LLC)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.22 (4/35) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: He was a true all or nothing type last year. Let there be no doubt that the raw talent is there, but he seems to have a problem with the start. He clipped heels and dumped Robby Albarado in his June 23 bow at Churchill Downs, and stumbled at the start and lost all chance as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) favorite. In between, he broke his maiden by 19+ lengths at Ellis Park, and easily captured the Iroquois (G3) Sept. 14 at Churchill. He beat Scabbard in the latter race, and that one was very disappointing in the BC Juvenile and LeComte. He returned to the worktab Jan 11 and is expected to make first start as a 3-year-old in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park February 29.
Derby Points (10)
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(5) ANNEAU D’OR (Medaglia d’Oro - Walk Close, by Tapit) - Previous Ranking (#7)
Trainer (Blaine D. Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12.80 (1/8) at Golden Gate Fields Feb. 8.
Comments: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) runner-up seems to have caught a huge break at Fair Grounds. The Risen Star Stakes (G2) was split into two divisions, and the top three LeComte (G3) finishers all ended up in the first division. The Blaine Wright trainee looks like a complete standout in the second division of the Risen Star. He adds blinkers and Joel Rosario rides, and he should make short work of his seemingly overmatched Risen Star foes if he is a true Derby contender.
Derby Points (12)
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(6) NADAL (Blame - Ascending Angel, by Pulpit) - Previous Ranking (#11)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Stronach Stables)
Comments: This rapidly developing Derby prospect is now 2-for-2 after starting his career on Jan. 19. His sprint debut was fast and impressive. He worked once after that, and was back in three weeks for the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Feb. 9. He met 2-year-old champ Storm the Court, but fast Baltas returnee Ginobili ended up being his main foe. He was in the hunt throughout and showed his class in the stretch to smartly score. He might be very good, and we will learn more in his points race debut over a route of ground next time. The March 14 Rebel Stakes is most likely next target. Baffert likes to ship to Oaklawn Park, and the timing of that race makes the most sense.
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(7) ENFORCEABLE (Tapit - Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) - Previous Ranking (#8)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (John Oxley)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (73/148) at Fair Grounds Feb. 8.
Comments: The big thing to like about this one is his stamina (broke maiden at 9f). His late run fell short in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and he seemed like a real grinder last year. He was much better in his 3-year-old bow in the LeComte (G3) at Fair Grounds last month. He showed a better turn of foot and smartly defeated promising Asmussen runner Silver State. He meets that rival again in the first division of the Risen Star Feb. 15. The mile and an eighth distance will only help him, and he might make it two straight points race victories at Fair Grounds if he gets enough pace help.
Derby Points (13)
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(8) INDEPENDENCE HALL (Constitution - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) - Previous Ranking (#5)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Twin Creek Racing Stables)
Comments: Last time, I said am really not sure how good he really is, and I am really starting to have my doubts about his stamina now. Granted, he did win his first three starts and was miles best of the rest in a runner-up finish in the Sam F. Davis (G3). His last two starts were not nearly as good as his Nashua (G3) romp. He was fractious in the paddock and broke last in the Jerome Jan. 1. He was steered outside and was quickly in front, but he only won because his competition was vastly inferior. He shipped to Tampa Bay Downs after the Jerome, and tracked two overmatched front runners in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Feb. 8. He was not able to take advantage of his first run journey and Sole Volante blew right on by him in the stretch.
Derby Points (14)
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(9) AJAAWEED (Curlin - Assiya, by Daaher) - Previous Ranking (#4)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Shadwell Stable)
Comments: I was really expecting much more in the Sam F. Davis after he almost overcame a speed bias and a loose early leader in the Remsen (G2). That stellar runner-up effort should have propelled him to bigger things. In the Davis at Tampa Bay Feb. 8, he got pace help but was miles behind in last, and he passed a few rivals to finish a distant 3rd. He just does not have the turn of foot to match the top runners in this division. The late running grinder has plenty of stamina and can keep picking up checks in upcoming points races. He will have to show more if he expects to win any of these races.
Derby Points (7)
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(10) MAXFIELD (Street Sense - Velvety, by Bernardini) - Previous Ranking (#9)
Trainer (Brendan P. Walsh) - Owner (Godolphin, LLC)
Comments: He broke slow and rallied strongly to capture both of his starts from off the pace including the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. He was supposed to run in the BC Juvenile (G1), but an untimely leg injury forced him to scratch. He had surgery to remove an ankle chip on Nov. 18 and has started galloping again. He is definitely on a tight schedule and cannot afford any hiccups. For comparison purposes, Gouverneur Morris raced twice last year and the Breeders’ Futurity was also his final juvenile outing. Todd Pletcher’s colt has already worked eight times since, and he just ran and scored at Tampa Bay Feb. 14. He is way ahead of Maxfield from a conditioning standpoint. There are big concerns here. How will he fare after surgery? He cannot keep breaking slow as the competition only gets tougher. Distance sure does not seem like an issue.
Derby Points (10)
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(11) HONOR A. P. (Honor Code - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush) - Previous Ranking (#10)
Trainer (John Shirreffs) - Owner (C R K Stable LLC)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.80 (11/88) at Santa Anita Feb. 8.
Comments: Sharp two turn maiden winner had a minor setback, which forced him to miss the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park Jan. 4. He got back on the worktab at the Great Race Place Jan. 20. The pedigree and talent is there. John Shirreffs is a very patient trainer and will not push him to make the Derby. Everything has to go right for him, and he absolutely cannot miss any more time or races. He might make his stakes debut in the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 7.
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THE NEXT NINE: (12) Silver State, (13) Authentic, (14) Max Player, (15) Structor, (16) Sole Volante, (17) Ete Indien, (18) Farmington Road, (19) Azul Coast, (20) Spa City
Article by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Nadal capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
The El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields is the only 10 points race this week, and the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds has been split into two divisions. The first place finisher in both divisions on the Risen Star will each receive 50 points, so they are essentially win and you’re in races.
The first division of the Risen Star (race 12) includes the top three finishers from the LeComte Stakes (Enforceable, Silver State, Mr. Monomoy). Anneau d’Or is the strong favorite in the second division (races 13). The BC Juvenile & Los Al Futurity runner-up adds blinkers and gets the services of Joel Rosario.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) Recap (2-8-20) - Winner: Sole Volante ($13.60)
We were supposed to learn more about Independence Hall in this race, but Sole Volante stole the spotlight with a late running victory. Chapalu and Premier Star set sail for the early lead and Independence Hall sat the right behind them. Those three separated themselves from the pack after an opening half-mile in 46.52. Independence Hall got past the tired top pair but Sole Volante was hot on his heels and went right on by in the stretch to score by 2-1/2 lengths. Independence Hall was 11+ clear of show finisher Ajaaweed. The latter was just too far back and just outfinished Tiz Rye Time by a neck. No Getting Over Me was next, and Premier Star and Chapalu were far behind the others. Sole Volante seemed best as a turf router before this race, but he won’t be returning to turf any time soon. As for Independence Hall, this is the second straight somewhat disappointing performance. His Nashua (G3) romp was outstanding, but he made mental mistakes vs. nothing in his Jerome victory, and he seemed a bit too eager to go after the two early runners in this spot. I am really starting to think that he does not want to go nine or ten furlongs. Ajaaweed has stamina but lacks gears. He might keep picking up minor awards vs. graded company.
Hot Prospects: Spa City
This Street Sense colt might end up being a good one for Kiaran McLaughlin. He improved in each of his three Gulfstream starts. He clearly is not a sprinter and ran out of ground in his 6f debut. He got up for 2nd behind a romper at one mile second time out. Again, stamina is not the path to success in one turn mile races. He tipped his hand at a mile and an eighth Feb. 8. In that race, he tracked the pace and gamely graduated by a length, and top pair finished 14+ lengths in front of the rest. Look for him to join the points race chase in the near future.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2020 Contenders (2-14-20)
(1) GOUVERNEUR MORRIS (Constitution - Addison Run, by Unbridled’s Song) - Previous Ranking (#1)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Team Valor International & WinStar Farm LLC)
Comments: He has been my top Derby dog since I started my blog last September. In a pair of 2019 starts, he ran off the screen in his dirt sprint debut in the slop at Saratoga, and finished a determined 2nd from the outside post in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) second time out. After spending a few weeks at WinStar Farm following his second career start at Keeneland, he returned to Todd Pletcher’s barn in Florida in December 2019, and worked once a week like clockwork beginning on Dec. 22. He made his sophomore debut in an optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 14. He was the heavy favorite in that mile and forty yards affair, and he was solid throughout. He tracked front runner Untitled and gradually wore that one down to score by a length and a quarter. Jockey John Velazquez had to work on him a bit, and he seemed to have decent energy in the late going. This was a nice first step for him, and there is little to no doubt that he was not fully cranked for this. Just like all of these Derby hopefuls, we will learn more in the coming weeks.
Derby Points (4)
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(2) THOUSAND WORDS (Pioneerof the Nile - Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy) - Previous Ranking (#2)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stable & Spendthrift Farm)
Comments: $1 million purchase is now 3-for-3 after capturing his second points race in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) Feb. 1, and you know he was not fully cranked. There is much to like here. It just about goes without saying that Baffert knows how to prepare a horse for the Derby. This one is very classy individual and I like the fight he showed in the Los Al Futurity (G2). He turned away BC Juvenile (G1) runner-up Anneau d’Oro that day, and in the Lewis, he took dirt to the face while racing inside and behind horses. He does not blow the competition away. Rather, he just keeps coming after you with those long, grinding strides, and he sure seems to have a will to win. All of his wins were accomplished using different tactics. He stalked wide in his bow, dueled second time out, and closed from the inside last time. Those traits should come in handy as we continue down the Derby trail, and it sure seems like he is just getting warmed up at a mile and a sixteenth. On another positive note, he handled a wet track just fine at Los Alamitos late last year.
Derby Points (20)
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(3) TIZ THE LAW (Constitution - Tizfiz, by Tiznow) - Previous Ranking (#4)
Trainer (Barclay Tagg) - Owner (Sackatoga Stable)
Latest Workout: 4f in 50.00 (10/15) at Palm Meadows Training Center Feb. 10.
Comments: The talented NY-bred is 3-for-4 with a 2nd, and his lone loss was a troubled, close-up 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) on a wet track at Churchill Downs Nov. 30. That is a bit of a concern because we have seen the Derby run over a wet track numerous times recently. His Holy Bull (G2) return was excellent, and it is always a good sign when a good juvenile runs fast in his sophomore debut. I really like his tactical speed, and he finishes his races in fine order. I am not thrilled with the lugging in last time, and there was probably nothing behind him at Gulfstream that day. He remains a very promising Derby hopeful, but I never get carried away with these Jan/Feb points race winners. They just never seem to win the Derby anymore. He is targeting the Florida Derby.
Derby Points (22)
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(4) DENNIS’ MOMENT (Tiznow - Transplendid, by Elusive Quality) - Previous Ranking (#6)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing LLC)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.22 (4/35) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: He was a true all or nothing type last year. Let there be no doubt that the raw talent is there, but he seems to have a problem with the start. He clipped heels and dumped Robby Albarado in his June 23 bow at Churchill Downs, and stumbled at the start and lost all chance as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) favorite. In between, he broke his maiden by 19+ lengths at Ellis Park, and easily captured the Iroquois (G3) Sept. 14 at Churchill. He beat Scabbard in the latter race, and that one was very disappointing in the BC Juvenile and LeComte. He returned to the worktab Jan 11 and is expected to make first start as a 3-year-old in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park February 29.
Derby Points (10)
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(5) ANNEAU D’OR (Medaglia d’Oro - Walk Close, by Tapit) - Previous Ranking (#7)
Trainer (Blaine D. Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12.80 (1/8) at Golden Gate Fields Feb. 8.
Comments: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) runner-up seems to have caught a huge break at Fair Grounds. The Risen Star Stakes (G2) was split into two divisions, and the top three LeComte (G3) finishers all ended up in the first division. The Blaine Wright trainee looks like a complete standout in the second division of the Risen Star. He adds blinkers and Joel Rosario rides, and he should make short work of his seemingly overmatched Risen Star foes if he is a true Derby contender.
Derby Points (12)
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(6) NADAL (Blame - Ascending Angel, by Pulpit) - Previous Ranking (#11)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Stronach Stables)
Comments: This rapidly developing Derby prospect is now 2-for-2 after starting his career on Jan. 19. His sprint debut was fast and impressive. He worked once after that, and was back in three weeks for the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Feb. 9. He met 2-year-old champ Storm the Court, but fast Baltas returnee Ginobili ended up being his main foe. He was in the hunt throughout and showed his class in the stretch to smartly score. He might be very good, and we will learn more in his points race debut over a route of ground next time. The March 14 Rebel Stakes is most likely next target. Baffert likes to ship to Oaklawn Park, and the timing of that race makes the most sense.
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(7) ENFORCEABLE (Tapit - Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) - Previous Ranking (#8)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (John Oxley)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (73/148) at Fair Grounds Feb. 8.
Comments: The big thing to like about this one is his stamina (broke maiden at 9f). His late run fell short in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and he seemed like a real grinder last year. He was much better in his 3-year-old bow in the LeComte (G3) at Fair Grounds last month. He showed a better turn of foot and smartly defeated promising Asmussen runner Silver State. He meets that rival again in the first division of the Risen Star Feb. 15. The mile and an eighth distance will only help him, and he might make it two straight points race victories at Fair Grounds if he gets enough pace help.
Derby Points (13)
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(8) INDEPENDENCE HALL (Constitution - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) - Previous Ranking (#5)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Twin Creek Racing Stables)
Comments: Last time, I said am really not sure how good he really is, and I am really starting to have my doubts about his stamina now. Granted, he did win his first three starts and was miles best of the rest in a runner-up finish in the Sam F. Davis (G3). His last two starts were not nearly as good as his Nashua (G3) romp. He was fractious in the paddock and broke last in the Jerome Jan. 1. He was steered outside and was quickly in front, but he only won because his competition was vastly inferior. He shipped to Tampa Bay Downs after the Jerome, and tracked two overmatched front runners in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Feb. 8. He was not able to take advantage of his first run journey and Sole Volante blew right on by him in the stretch.
Derby Points (14)
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(9) AJAAWEED (Curlin - Assiya, by Daaher) - Previous Ranking (#4)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Shadwell Stable)
Comments: I was really expecting much more in the Sam F. Davis after he almost overcame a speed bias and a loose early leader in the Remsen (G2). That stellar runner-up effort should have propelled him to bigger things. In the Davis at Tampa Bay Feb. 8, he got pace help but was miles behind in last, and he passed a few rivals to finish a distant 3rd. He just does not have the turn of foot to match the top runners in this division. The late running grinder has plenty of stamina and can keep picking up checks in upcoming points races. He will have to show more if he expects to win any of these races.
Derby Points (7)
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(10) MAXFIELD (Street Sense - Velvety, by Bernardini) - Previous Ranking (#9)
Trainer (Brendan P. Walsh) - Owner (Godolphin, LLC)
Comments: He broke slow and rallied strongly to capture both of his starts from off the pace including the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. He was supposed to run in the BC Juvenile (G1), but an untimely leg injury forced him to scratch. He had surgery to remove an ankle chip on Nov. 18 and has started galloping again. He is definitely on a tight schedule and cannot afford any hiccups. For comparison purposes, Gouverneur Morris raced twice last year and the Breeders’ Futurity was also his final juvenile outing. Todd Pletcher’s colt has already worked eight times since, and he just ran and scored at Tampa Bay Feb. 14. He is way ahead of Maxfield from a conditioning standpoint. There are big concerns here. How will he fare after surgery? He cannot keep breaking slow as the competition only gets tougher. Distance sure does not seem like an issue.
Derby Points (10)
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(11) HONOR A. P. (Honor Code - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush) - Previous Ranking (#10)
Trainer (John Shirreffs) - Owner (C R K Stable LLC)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.80 (11/88) at Santa Anita Feb. 8.
Comments: Sharp two turn maiden winner had a minor setback, which forced him to miss the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park Jan. 4. He got back on the worktab at the Great Race Place Jan. 20. The pedigree and talent is there. John Shirreffs is a very patient trainer and will not push him to make the Derby. Everything has to go right for him, and he absolutely cannot miss any more time or races. He might make his stakes debut in the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 7.
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THE NEXT NINE: (12) Silver State, (13) Authentic, (14) Max Player, (15) Structor, (16) Sole Volante, (17) Ete Indien, (18) Farmington Road, (19) Azul Coast, (20) Spa City
Article by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Risen Star & Rachel Alexandra Stakes 2020 Video
My Derby & Oaks video series continues with the Rachel Alexandra Stakes & Risen Star Stakes from Fair Grounds.
Friday, February 7, 2020
Kentucky Derby 2020 Report for 2-7-20
The Kentucky Derby 2020 points race series was in high gear last weekend. Tiz the Law is the very early Derby favorite after a sharp score in the Holy Bull Stakes, and Bob Baffert’s $1 million colt Thousand Words ran his record to 3-for-3 in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. The Withers was the other points race on Feb. 1, and Max Player went from maiden winner at Parx to graded stakes winner at the Big A.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Tiz the Law capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
The Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs is the lone points race on Saturday, Feb. 8, and Independence Hall tries to go 4-for-4. The early-pressing type makes his first start around two turns. Premier Star stretches out and looms the target, and Remsen Stakes (G2) runner-up Ajaaweed is the one to fear late.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
Withers Stakes Recap (2-1-20) - Winner: Max Player ($12.80)
Shotski was an underlay as expected. He stole the Remsen (G2) over a speed favoring oval last year. In this event, he did not figure to shake loose early, and he did not. Prince of Pharoahs was the first to engage the chalk, and Vanzzy and New Commission were also forwardly placed. Monday Morning Qb went after Shotski after the other early challengers faded, and that set the table for my value oriented TRD video winner Max Player. The Linda Rice trainee was lurking wide under Dylan Davis. He was scrubbing away and under the whip while continuing wide approaching the far turn, and swung even wider turning for home. He had the momentum out in the middle of the track and won going away by 3+ lengths. Shotski just held 2nd over late runner Portos, and Monday Morning Qb flattened out and finished 4th. New Commission was 5th, and Prince of Pharoahs was another ten lengths back in 6th. Mr. Shortandsimple and Vanzzy were both eased. This was not a fast race but was a big forward move for Max Player. He went from wet track maiden winner at Parx to a graded Derby points race winner.
You can read the rest of this post on my Kentucky Derby 2020 page...
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Tiz the Law capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
The Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs is the lone points race on Saturday, Feb. 8, and Independence Hall tries to go 4-for-4. The early-pressing type makes his first start around two turns. Premier Star stretches out and looms the target, and Remsen Stakes (G2) runner-up Ajaaweed is the one to fear late.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
Withers Stakes Recap (2-1-20) - Winner: Max Player ($12.80)
Shotski was an underlay as expected. He stole the Remsen (G2) over a speed favoring oval last year. In this event, he did not figure to shake loose early, and he did not. Prince of Pharoahs was the first to engage the chalk, and Vanzzy and New Commission were also forwardly placed. Monday Morning Qb went after Shotski after the other early challengers faded, and that set the table for my value oriented TRD video winner Max Player. The Linda Rice trainee was lurking wide under Dylan Davis. He was scrubbing away and under the whip while continuing wide approaching the far turn, and swung even wider turning for home. He had the momentum out in the middle of the track and won going away by 3+ lengths. Shotski just held 2nd over late runner Portos, and Monday Morning Qb flattened out and finished 4th. New Commission was 5th, and Prince of Pharoahs was another ten lengths back in 6th. Mr. Shortandsimple and Vanzzy were both eased. This was not a fast race but was a big forward move for Max Player. He went from wet track maiden winner at Parx to a graded Derby points race winner.
You can read the rest of this post on my Kentucky Derby 2020 page...
Sam F. Davis Stakes 2020 Video Featuring Independence Hall
Check out my Suncoast Stakes & Sam F. Davis Stakes video below!
Video by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Video by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Friday, January 31, 2020
Kentucky Derby 2020 Blog: Enforceable Kicks Late in LeComte Stakes
There have been four Kentucky Derby 2020 points races this year, and the LeComte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds has been the strongest race so far. There are three Derby preps this weekend (Holy Bull, Robert B. Lewis, Withers).
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Enforceable capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Tiz the Law is the 3-5 morning line favorite for the Holy Bull Stakes (G2), and Thousand Words is 4-5 to remain unbeaten in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita Park. The final points race on Saturday, Feb. 1 is the Withers Stakes at the Big A. Shotski is the 2-1 choice on the line and is the most vulnerable of the three Derby points race favorites on Saturday. For analysis of those three Derby preps, check out my Today’s Racing Digest video.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
LeComte Stakes (G3) Recap from Fair Grounds (1-18-20) - Winner: Enforceable ($15.60)
A big field with a solid pace and stamina won out. Bango, Shashashakemeup, and Jack the Umpire were the early instigators. Mr. Monomoy sat behind them and was the only forwardly placed runner around at the end. Enforceable was wide early and often from post ten. He raced 11th of 13 for the first half-mile and picked up the pace nicely after that. He showed a nice turn of foot in the stretch and kicked clear to score by a length and a half. My top choice Silver State rallied smartly for the place in just his third career start for Steve Amussen. I thought he ran every bit as well as the winner. This was his first start around two turns and he has plenty of upside. Mr. Monomoy missed 2nd by a neck and was well clear of 4th place finisher Finnick the Fierce. Beaten favorite Scabbard was a flat 6th and was followed by Shashashakemeup, Excession, Halo Again, Bango, Perfect Star, Jack the Umpire, Sycamore Run, and New Eagle.
Smarty Jones Stakes Recap from Oaklawn Park (1-24-20) - Winner: Gold Street ($22.80)
Everything about this race was confusing. First of all, the track was muddy, and some horses probably did not handle the footing. There were a trio of sprinters stretching out in distance (Lykan, Nucky, Gold Street), and the pace figured to be fast. Spoiler alert, it wasn’t! Lykan was rank early and Nucky never got involved. Gold Street was exiting back-to-back dirt sprint wins in the slop, and he just got out there and completely controlled the pace in this spot. My value top choice Lynn’s Map took up chasing duties because someone had to. Gold Street was in cruise control from start to finish and scored by a very comfortable 2+ lengths. Three Technique stalked from the outside post and was clearly second best in a solid effort. Shoplifted stalked the pace and was best of the rest in 3rd, and his stablemate Silver Prospector was 4th. Lynn’s Map weakened to 5th, and Shared Sense, Lykan, Jungle Runner, and Nucky completed the order of finish. The speed figure came back solid but there is a very good chance that this was not a strong race, at least when it comes to the Derby trail. My best guess is that the top two finishers are milers at best.
You can read the rest of this post on my Kentucky Derby 2020 page...
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Enforceable capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Tiz the Law is the 3-5 morning line favorite for the Holy Bull Stakes (G2), and Thousand Words is 4-5 to remain unbeaten in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita Park. The final points race on Saturday, Feb. 1 is the Withers Stakes at the Big A. Shotski is the 2-1 choice on the line and is the most vulnerable of the three Derby points race favorites on Saturday. For analysis of those three Derby preps, check out my Today’s Racing Digest video.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
LeComte Stakes (G3) Recap from Fair Grounds (1-18-20) - Winner: Enforceable ($15.60)
A big field with a solid pace and stamina won out. Bango, Shashashakemeup, and Jack the Umpire were the early instigators. Mr. Monomoy sat behind them and was the only forwardly placed runner around at the end. Enforceable was wide early and often from post ten. He raced 11th of 13 for the first half-mile and picked up the pace nicely after that. He showed a nice turn of foot in the stretch and kicked clear to score by a length and a half. My top choice Silver State rallied smartly for the place in just his third career start for Steve Amussen. I thought he ran every bit as well as the winner. This was his first start around two turns and he has plenty of upside. Mr. Monomoy missed 2nd by a neck and was well clear of 4th place finisher Finnick the Fierce. Beaten favorite Scabbard was a flat 6th and was followed by Shashashakemeup, Excession, Halo Again, Bango, Perfect Star, Jack the Umpire, Sycamore Run, and New Eagle.
Smarty Jones Stakes Recap from Oaklawn Park (1-24-20) - Winner: Gold Street ($22.80)
Everything about this race was confusing. First of all, the track was muddy, and some horses probably did not handle the footing. There were a trio of sprinters stretching out in distance (Lykan, Nucky, Gold Street), and the pace figured to be fast. Spoiler alert, it wasn’t! Lykan was rank early and Nucky never got involved. Gold Street was exiting back-to-back dirt sprint wins in the slop, and he just got out there and completely controlled the pace in this spot. My value top choice Lynn’s Map took up chasing duties because someone had to. Gold Street was in cruise control from start to finish and scored by a very comfortable 2+ lengths. Three Technique stalked from the outside post and was clearly second best in a solid effort. Shoplifted stalked the pace and was best of the rest in 3rd, and his stablemate Silver Prospector was 4th. Lynn’s Map weakened to 5th, and Shared Sense, Lykan, Jungle Runner, and Nucky completed the order of finish. The speed figure came back solid but there is a very good chance that this was not a strong race, at least when it comes to the Derby trail. My best guess is that the top two finishers are milers at best.
You can read the rest of this post on my Kentucky Derby 2020 page...
Smarty Jones Stakes Video: Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race
Check out my Smarty Jones Stakes 2020 video from for Friday (1-24-20) below! This is a Kentucky Derby 2020 points race.
Video by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Video by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Friday, January 17, 2020
Kentucky Derby 2020 Blog: Jerome & Sham Stakes Recap
The Kentucky Derby 2020 trail is off and running! Independence Hall started off the year with an easy score in the Jerome Stakes, and Authentic ran away with the Sham Stakes a few days later. The Fair Grounds road to the Derby begins with the Lecomte Stakes (G3) Jan. 18, and Scabbard is the tepid morning line favorite.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Authentic capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Lecomte Stakes (G3) Preview from Fair Grounds (1-18-20)
Scabbard is the favorite and he should not have any excuses. He looks like the class of the field and reunites with his winning rider Corey Lanerie. He drew a favorable post position and should get pace to chase. Look for him to strike from midpack. Steve Asmussen entered three runners (Excession, Halo Again, Silver State), and the latter might be the most dangerous of the three. The $450k son of Hard Spun ran well in both starts at Churchill Downs last year, and Ricardo Santana Jr. sticks with the stalker. Enforceable is one of two runners from the Mark Casse barn (Lynn’s Map is the other), and the well bred colt is part of my Derby list. He has a shot to rally for a share if the pace heats up (it should). Sycamore Run might be the one to catch from post 13. Can he go all the way from a tough post in his stakes and two turn debut in his second career start? Mr. Monomoy drew well and figures to save ground chasing the pace. He is bred to be a good one for Brad Cox. Finnick the Fierce rallied for the place at 87-1 odds in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). We will find out if that effort was a fluke.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
Jerome Stakes Recap (1-1-20) - Winner: Independence Hall ($2.20)
This was not the performance many of us were expecting. Granted, Independence Hall scored easily, but he made some troubling mistakes. He was fractious in the paddock and lunged at the start and was away last. His rider Jose Ortiz maneuvered him outside, and within a matter of strides he was in front. He was a bit erratic in the lane and scored by four lengths. There was nothing behind him and that is why he got away with his antics. I still like him and he clearly has ability, but there are more questions than answers at this stage. Prince of Pharoahs and Bourbon Bay, a pair of NY-bred maiden winners, finished in a dead-heat for the place, and it was a mile back to Celtic Striker, Polar Bear Pete, and Dubai Bobby. The track was good and the final time was not particularly fast (1:37.27).
Sham Stakes (G3) Recap (1-4-20) - Winner: Authentic ($4.40)
Authentic was my top pick in my TRD video for Jan. 4, and he made short work of this field. He seized control early from the rail under Drayden Van Dyke, and he was clear throughout. He was green in the stretch but it did not matter in this spot. He won by more than seven lengths over stablemate Azul Coast. The latter had no speed and wants all the ground he can get. Zimba Warrior held off Taishan for 3rd. Scoring was another 8+ back in 5th, and Uncaptured Hero stalked and retreated to last. This was only the second career start for Authentic, and he clearly has sped and talent. He needs to work on some things and we will find out if he is a legit Derby contender in the near future.
You can read the rest of this post on my Kentucky Derby 2020 page...
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Authentic capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Lecomte Stakes (G3) Preview from Fair Grounds (1-18-20)
Scabbard is the favorite and he should not have any excuses. He looks like the class of the field and reunites with his winning rider Corey Lanerie. He drew a favorable post position and should get pace to chase. Look for him to strike from midpack. Steve Asmussen entered three runners (Excession, Halo Again, Silver State), and the latter might be the most dangerous of the three. The $450k son of Hard Spun ran well in both starts at Churchill Downs last year, and Ricardo Santana Jr. sticks with the stalker. Enforceable is one of two runners from the Mark Casse barn (Lynn’s Map is the other), and the well bred colt is part of my Derby list. He has a shot to rally for a share if the pace heats up (it should). Sycamore Run might be the one to catch from post 13. Can he go all the way from a tough post in his stakes and two turn debut in his second career start? Mr. Monomoy drew well and figures to save ground chasing the pace. He is bred to be a good one for Brad Cox. Finnick the Fierce rallied for the place at 87-1 odds in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). We will find out if that effort was a fluke.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
Jerome Stakes Recap (1-1-20) - Winner: Independence Hall ($2.20)
This was not the performance many of us were expecting. Granted, Independence Hall scored easily, but he made some troubling mistakes. He was fractious in the paddock and lunged at the start and was away last. His rider Jose Ortiz maneuvered him outside, and within a matter of strides he was in front. He was a bit erratic in the lane and scored by four lengths. There was nothing behind him and that is why he got away with his antics. I still like him and he clearly has ability, but there are more questions than answers at this stage. Prince of Pharoahs and Bourbon Bay, a pair of NY-bred maiden winners, finished in a dead-heat for the place, and it was a mile back to Celtic Striker, Polar Bear Pete, and Dubai Bobby. The track was good and the final time was not particularly fast (1:37.27).
Sham Stakes (G3) Recap (1-4-20) - Winner: Authentic ($4.40)
Authentic was my top pick in my TRD video for Jan. 4, and he made short work of this field. He seized control early from the rail under Drayden Van Dyke, and he was clear throughout. He was green in the stretch but it did not matter in this spot. He won by more than seven lengths over stablemate Azul Coast. The latter had no speed and wants all the ground he can get. Zimba Warrior held off Taishan for 3rd. Scoring was another 8+ back in 5th, and Uncaptured Hero stalked and retreated to last. This was only the second career start for Authentic, and he clearly has sped and talent. He needs to work on some things and we will find out if he is a legit Derby contender in the near future.
You can read the rest of this post on my Kentucky Derby 2020 page...
LeComte Stakes 2020 Video: Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Series
Check out my LeComte Stakes (G3) video from Fair Grounds for Saturday (1-18-20) below! This is a Kentucky Derby 2020 points race.
Video by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Video by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Santa Anita Park Report 2020 (January 1-5)
Santa Anita Recap for Wednesday (1-1-20)
Fast main track and firm turf course. Three front running winners on dirt (6f, 8f, 6f). The winning turf course running styles were a stalker sitting in 2nd at one mile, a pace prompter at one mile, an outside stalker sitting in 3rd at one mile, a stalker at 5.5 panels, and a stalker from the inside post at a mile and an eighth (rail at 10 feet).
Tiago Pereira booted home a pair. Richard Baltas saddled three turf route winners. Peter Miller saddled two winners.
The Rainbow 6 pool was $191,479, and multiple winning tickets paid $6,819.48 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $161,456 when live racing resumes on Friday, Jan. 3.
Joe Hernandez Stakes (G2) Recap (1-1-20) - Winner: Texas Wedge ($6.20)
Bay Musik was sent to the lead from the outside post, and surface switcher Captain Scotty chased him intently. Texas Wedge stalked from post 4 and was in tight between horses on the backstretch. Flavien Prat did not panic, and he rallied and surged to the lead in the stretch, and he scored by a bit less than a length. Double Touch got past Bay Musik very late to land the place. Blitzkrieg was along for 4th in a race he probably needed. Captain Scotty weakened to 5th, and was followed by Grinning Tiger, Tribalist, True Valour, Legends of War, and Carnivorous.
Jan. 1 Claims: Race 5 - Love a Honeybadger ($25k, Brian Koriner), Nomizar ($25k, Hector Palma), Tapitha Bonita ($25k, Steve Miyadi). Race 7 - Winning Element ($40k, Andrew Lerner).
Horses To Watch:
Race 7 (Boogalute) - I thought Boogalute was the controlling speed, but he lost his early advantage after a bad start under Flavien Prat. He rallied for the show in a better than appears effort.
Race 10 (Southern King) - Musawaat beat Southern King by a 1/2 length in Sunday’s finale at Santa Anita, and trips made all the difference. The winner saved ground stalking the pace from the inside post, and the runner-up stalked wide throughout, and was pushed out in the stretch when Golden Birthday took a bad step. Southern King could have easily scored with a different trip.
SA Full Card Highlights for 1-1-20
SA 2 Shootin Money/Taco Waco Exacta (SA Best Bet #1, $9.50)
SA 3 Justinian/California Street Exacta ($10.50)
SA 4 Rip City/Drasario Exacta ($32.50), Trifecta ($32.45)
SA 6 Opus Won/Out of Balance/Courteous Trifecta ($58.85)
SA 8 TEXAS WEDGE ($6.20)
Double (races 8-9, $13.60)
SA 10 Musawaat/Southern King Exacta (SA Best Bet #2, $23.70)
Double (races 9-10, $36.60)
Pick 3 (races 8-10, $18.80)
AQU 7 INDEPENDENCE HALL ($2.20), Exacta ($2.40), Trifecta ($4.14), Trifecta ($2.60)
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Santa Anita Recap for Friday (1-3-20)
Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at six furlongs on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at a mile and an eighth, an outside midpack stalker at one mile, a dueling front runner at 5.5 panels, and a front runner at one mile (rail at 20 feet).
Ruben Fuentes booted home a pair.
The Rainbow 6 pool was $142,632 and multiple winning tickets paid $510.20 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $194,110 when live racing resumes on Saturday, Jan. 4.
Jan. 3 Claims: Race 2 - Black Storm ($16k, Gary Stute), Roaring Fork ($16k, Peter Miller), Toothless Wonder ($16k, Sean McCarthy). Race 8 - Katsaros ($20k, Jeff Bonde).
SA Full Card Highlights for 1-3-20
SA 4 BELLAZANO (SA Best Bet #1, $6.80), Exacta ($8.00)
SA 5 Point Hope/Invincibella Exacta ($6.40)
Double (races 4-5, $15.40)
Pick 3 (races 4-6, $8.15)
SA 8 BUYBACK ($5.80)
Double (races 7-8, $12.20)
Pick 3 (races 6-8, $6.70)
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Santa Anita Recap for Saturday (1-4-20)
Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at six furlongs on dirt (8f, 8.5f). The winning turf course running styles were two stalkers at 5.5 panels, a midpack stalker at one mile, a closer at one mile, and a last-to-first closer at nine furlongs.
Riding doubles for Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario, and Drayden Van Dyke. Training double for Bob Baffert.
The Rainbow 6 pool was $234,562 and multiple winning tickets paid $1,632,18 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $247,811 when live racing resumes on Sunday, Jan. 5.
Sham Stakes (G3) Recap (1-4-20) - Winner: Authentic ($4.40)
Authentic was my top pick in my TRD video for Jan. 4, and he made short work of this field. He seized control early from the rail under Drayden Van Dyke, and he was clear throughout. He was green in the stretch but it did not matter in this spot. He won by more than seven lengths over stablemate Azul Coast. The latter had no speed and wants all the ground he can get. Zimba Warrior held off Taishan for 3rd. Scoring was another 8+ back in 5th, and Uncaptured Hero stalked and retreated to last. This was only the second career start for Authentic, and he clearly has speed and talent. He needs to work on some things and we will find out if he is a legit Derby contender in the near future.
San Gabriel Stakes (G2) Recap (1-4-20) - Winner: Desert Stone ($16.20)
I have been a fan of Desert Stone for quite some time, and it was nice to see him return with a graded victory. He broke slow from the inside post, but that was nothing new. Meanwhile, Overdue controlled the pace but was outfinished. Majestic Eagle assumed a short lead in the lane but Cleopatra’s Strike was on the move, and Desert Stone started to get involved from the back of the pack. Cleopatra’s Strike was almost home free but Desert Stone had the outside momentum and surged late to score by a neck. Cleopatra was a solid 2nd as the chalk and Majestic Eagle held 3rd over Chosen Vessel. North County Guy, Overdue, and Acker trailed.
Jan. 4 Claims: Race 9 - Hot Sean ($40k, Mike Puype).
SA Full Card Highlights for 1-4-20
SA 1 BLUEGRASS SKY ($15.20), Exacta ($15.40), Trifecta ($38.15)
SA 2 PHAST PHAROAH ($4.00), Exacta ($6.70), Trifecta ($15.10)
Double (races 1-2, $37.00)
Double (races 2-3, $7.60)
Pick 3 (races 1-3, $22.65)
SA 4 Kakistocracy/Big City Bane Exacta ($21.10)
Pick 3 (races 2-4, $5.50)
SA 5 AUTHENTIC ($4.40)
Double (races 4-5, $9.60)
Pick 3 (races 3-5, $6.15)
SA Early Pick 4 (races 2-5, $15.00)
SA Early Pick 5 (races 1-5, $169.65)
Double (races 5-6, $12.40)
Pick 3 (races 4-6, $7.05)
Pick 3 (races 5-7, $36.50)
SA 8 DESERT STONE (SA Best Bet #1, $16.20), Exacta ($22.10), Trifecta ($31.65)
Double (races 7-8, $274.20)
Pick 3 (races 6-8, $175.70)
Double (races 8-9, $58.60)
Pick 3 (races 7-9, $160.80)
SA 10 AN EDDIE SURPRISE (SA Best Bet #3, $10.60), Exacta ($15.00)
Double (races 9-10, $33.20)
Pick 3 (races 8-10, $64.65)
SA Late Pick 4 (races 7-10, $936.30)
GP 8 SOUND MACHINE ($5.80)
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Santa Anita Recap for Sunday (1-5-20)
Fast main track and firm turf course. Two front running winners at one mile on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a front runner at one mile, a closer at 5.5 panels, a stalker at 5.5 panels, and a stalker at one mile (rail at 10 feet).
Umberto Rispoli booted home a pair of turf route winners. Drayden Van Dyke and Bob Baffert teamed up for two wins.
The Rainbow 6 pool was $195,296 and multiple winning tickets paid $34,773.60 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $292,520 when live racing resumes on Friday, Jan. 10.
Shanta Ynez Stakes (G2) Recap (1-5-20) - Winner: Bast ($3.20)
Bast towered over her rivals from a class standpoint, and she drew the perfect outside post in this extended sprint. Auberge and Golden Principal battled on the lead from the two inside posts, and Bast tracked them from the outside. Those three dominated throughout and Bast was able to wear down her two inexperienced stablemates to score by a bit less than two lengths. Auberge was second best and Golden Principal finished more than nine lengths in front of Orquidias Biz. K P Dreamin and Lovely Lilia trailed. This was a Kentucky Oaks 2020 points race and Bast is the new leader with 34 points.
Jan. 5 Claims: Race 3 - General Interest ($20k, Peter Miller), Midnight Special ($20k, Bob Hess Jr). Race 8 - Bird ($25k, Steve Knapp), Canadian Game ($25k, Andrew Lerner), Factorial ($25k, Doug O’Neill), Go for a Ride ($25k, Anna Meah).
SA Full Card Highlights for 1-5-20
SA 7 BAST ($3.20)
Double (races 7-8, $20.60)
GG 7 ROLINGA ($5.60)
GG 9 BEAR CHUM ($5.60)
GG Late Pick 4 (races 6-9, $95.95)
Article by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Fast main track and firm turf course. Three front running winners on dirt (6f, 8f, 6f). The winning turf course running styles were a stalker sitting in 2nd at one mile, a pace prompter at one mile, an outside stalker sitting in 3rd at one mile, a stalker at 5.5 panels, and a stalker from the inside post at a mile and an eighth (rail at 10 feet).
Tiago Pereira booted home a pair. Richard Baltas saddled three turf route winners. Peter Miller saddled two winners.
The Rainbow 6 pool was $191,479, and multiple winning tickets paid $6,819.48 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $161,456 when live racing resumes on Friday, Jan. 3.
Joe Hernandez Stakes (G2) Recap (1-1-20) - Winner: Texas Wedge ($6.20)
Bay Musik was sent to the lead from the outside post, and surface switcher Captain Scotty chased him intently. Texas Wedge stalked from post 4 and was in tight between horses on the backstretch. Flavien Prat did not panic, and he rallied and surged to the lead in the stretch, and he scored by a bit less than a length. Double Touch got past Bay Musik very late to land the place. Blitzkrieg was along for 4th in a race he probably needed. Captain Scotty weakened to 5th, and was followed by Grinning Tiger, Tribalist, True Valour, Legends of War, and Carnivorous.
Jan. 1 Claims: Race 5 - Love a Honeybadger ($25k, Brian Koriner), Nomizar ($25k, Hector Palma), Tapitha Bonita ($25k, Steve Miyadi). Race 7 - Winning Element ($40k, Andrew Lerner).
Horses To Watch:
Race 7 (Boogalute) - I thought Boogalute was the controlling speed, but he lost his early advantage after a bad start under Flavien Prat. He rallied for the show in a better than appears effort.
Race 10 (Southern King) - Musawaat beat Southern King by a 1/2 length in Sunday’s finale at Santa Anita, and trips made all the difference. The winner saved ground stalking the pace from the inside post, and the runner-up stalked wide throughout, and was pushed out in the stretch when Golden Birthday took a bad step. Southern King could have easily scored with a different trip.
SA Full Card Highlights for 1-1-20
SA 2 Shootin Money/Taco Waco Exacta (SA Best Bet #1, $9.50)
SA 3 Justinian/California Street Exacta ($10.50)
SA 4 Rip City/Drasario Exacta ($32.50), Trifecta ($32.45)
SA 6 Opus Won/Out of Balance/Courteous Trifecta ($58.85)
SA 8 TEXAS WEDGE ($6.20)
Double (races 8-9, $13.60)
SA 10 Musawaat/Southern King Exacta (SA Best Bet #2, $23.70)
Double (races 9-10, $36.60)
Pick 3 (races 8-10, $18.80)
AQU 7 INDEPENDENCE HALL ($2.20), Exacta ($2.40), Trifecta ($4.14), Trifecta ($2.60)
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Santa Anita Recap for Friday (1-3-20)
Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at six furlongs on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at a mile and an eighth, an outside midpack stalker at one mile, a dueling front runner at 5.5 panels, and a front runner at one mile (rail at 20 feet).
Ruben Fuentes booted home a pair.
The Rainbow 6 pool was $142,632 and multiple winning tickets paid $510.20 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $194,110 when live racing resumes on Saturday, Jan. 4.
Jan. 3 Claims: Race 2 - Black Storm ($16k, Gary Stute), Roaring Fork ($16k, Peter Miller), Toothless Wonder ($16k, Sean McCarthy). Race 8 - Katsaros ($20k, Jeff Bonde).
SA Full Card Highlights for 1-3-20
SA 4 BELLAZANO (SA Best Bet #1, $6.80), Exacta ($8.00)
SA 5 Point Hope/Invincibella Exacta ($6.40)
Double (races 4-5, $15.40)
Pick 3 (races 4-6, $8.15)
SA 8 BUYBACK ($5.80)
Double (races 7-8, $12.20)
Pick 3 (races 6-8, $6.70)
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Santa Anita Recap for Saturday (1-4-20)
Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at six furlongs on dirt (8f, 8.5f). The winning turf course running styles were two stalkers at 5.5 panels, a midpack stalker at one mile, a closer at one mile, and a last-to-first closer at nine furlongs.
Riding doubles for Flavien Prat, Joel Rosario, and Drayden Van Dyke. Training double for Bob Baffert.
The Rainbow 6 pool was $234,562 and multiple winning tickets paid $1,632,18 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $247,811 when live racing resumes on Sunday, Jan. 5.
Sham Stakes (G3) Recap (1-4-20) - Winner: Authentic ($4.40)
Authentic was my top pick in my TRD video for Jan. 4, and he made short work of this field. He seized control early from the rail under Drayden Van Dyke, and he was clear throughout. He was green in the stretch but it did not matter in this spot. He won by more than seven lengths over stablemate Azul Coast. The latter had no speed and wants all the ground he can get. Zimba Warrior held off Taishan for 3rd. Scoring was another 8+ back in 5th, and Uncaptured Hero stalked and retreated to last. This was only the second career start for Authentic, and he clearly has speed and talent. He needs to work on some things and we will find out if he is a legit Derby contender in the near future.
San Gabriel Stakes (G2) Recap (1-4-20) - Winner: Desert Stone ($16.20)
I have been a fan of Desert Stone for quite some time, and it was nice to see him return with a graded victory. He broke slow from the inside post, but that was nothing new. Meanwhile, Overdue controlled the pace but was outfinished. Majestic Eagle assumed a short lead in the lane but Cleopatra’s Strike was on the move, and Desert Stone started to get involved from the back of the pack. Cleopatra’s Strike was almost home free but Desert Stone had the outside momentum and surged late to score by a neck. Cleopatra was a solid 2nd as the chalk and Majestic Eagle held 3rd over Chosen Vessel. North County Guy, Overdue, and Acker trailed.
Jan. 4 Claims: Race 9 - Hot Sean ($40k, Mike Puype).
SA Full Card Highlights for 1-4-20
SA 1 BLUEGRASS SKY ($15.20), Exacta ($15.40), Trifecta ($38.15)
SA 2 PHAST PHAROAH ($4.00), Exacta ($6.70), Trifecta ($15.10)
Double (races 1-2, $37.00)
Double (races 2-3, $7.60)
Pick 3 (races 1-3, $22.65)
SA 4 Kakistocracy/Big City Bane Exacta ($21.10)
Pick 3 (races 2-4, $5.50)
SA 5 AUTHENTIC ($4.40)
Double (races 4-5, $9.60)
Pick 3 (races 3-5, $6.15)
SA Early Pick 4 (races 2-5, $15.00)
SA Early Pick 5 (races 1-5, $169.65)
Double (races 5-6, $12.40)
Pick 3 (races 4-6, $7.05)
Pick 3 (races 5-7, $36.50)
SA 8 DESERT STONE (SA Best Bet #1, $16.20), Exacta ($22.10), Trifecta ($31.65)
Double (races 7-8, $274.20)
Pick 3 (races 6-8, $175.70)
Double (races 8-9, $58.60)
Pick 3 (races 7-9, $160.80)
SA 10 AN EDDIE SURPRISE (SA Best Bet #3, $10.60), Exacta ($15.00)
Double (races 9-10, $33.20)
Pick 3 (races 8-10, $64.65)
SA Late Pick 4 (races 7-10, $936.30)
GP 8 SOUND MACHINE ($5.80)
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Santa Anita Recap for Sunday (1-5-20)
Fast main track and firm turf course. Two front running winners at one mile on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a front runner at one mile, a closer at 5.5 panels, a stalker at 5.5 panels, and a stalker at one mile (rail at 10 feet).
Umberto Rispoli booted home a pair of turf route winners. Drayden Van Dyke and Bob Baffert teamed up for two wins.
The Rainbow 6 pool was $195,296 and multiple winning tickets paid $34,773.60 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $292,520 when live racing resumes on Friday, Jan. 10.
Shanta Ynez Stakes (G2) Recap (1-5-20) - Winner: Bast ($3.20)
Bast towered over her rivals from a class standpoint, and she drew the perfect outside post in this extended sprint. Auberge and Golden Principal battled on the lead from the two inside posts, and Bast tracked them from the outside. Those three dominated throughout and Bast was able to wear down her two inexperienced stablemates to score by a bit less than two lengths. Auberge was second best and Golden Principal finished more than nine lengths in front of Orquidias Biz. K P Dreamin and Lovely Lilia trailed. This was a Kentucky Oaks 2020 points race and Bast is the new leader with 34 points.
Jan. 5 Claims: Race 3 - General Interest ($20k, Peter Miller), Midnight Special ($20k, Bob Hess Jr). Race 8 - Bird ($25k, Steve Knapp), Canadian Game ($25k, Andrew Lerner), Factorial ($25k, Doug O’Neill), Go for a Ride ($25k, Anna Meah).
SA Full Card Highlights for 1-5-20
SA 7 BAST ($3.20)
Double (races 7-8, $20.60)
GG 7 ROLINGA ($5.60)
GG 9 BEAR CHUM ($5.60)
GG Late Pick 4 (races 6-9, $95.95)
Article by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
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