Kentucky Oaks 2020 Report for 2-21-20 Featuring Finite

Juvenile filly champion British Idiom made her much anticipated 3-year-old bow in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Feb. 15, but Finite stole the show and is the new Kentucky Oaks 2020 favorite and points leader.

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The next Oaks points race is the Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park Feb. 29. Possible starters include Forward Gal (G3) winner Tonalist’s Shape, last year’s Demoiselle (G2) winner Lake Avenue, and Todd Pletcher’s romping debut winner Spice Is Nice.

There are some big changes to my top five Oaks fillies. Bast has been retired after soft tissue problem was detected in her right front ankle. In a sad turn of events, Taraz fractured her left front pastern in a workout at Oaklawn Park earlier this week, and had to be put down. 

Kentucky Oaks 2020 Points Race Recaps
Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) Recap (2-15-20) - Winner: Finite ($7.40)

This was the most important Oaks prep so far. 50 points to the winner and the Fair Grounds road to the Oaks is frequently the right path. Two-year-old filly champ British Idiom started her sophomore campaign in this spot, but Finite stole her thunder. His Glory went straight to the front from the rail as expected, and Ursula was in chase mode after a less than ideal start. Finite sat a comfortable stalking trip from the outside post, and edged closer on the backstretch and around the far turn. She took the lead in the lane and widened her advantage to 4+ lengths when all was said and done. British Idiom did not have the smoothest trip in her first start in 3+ months. She bumped and steadied into the first turn, and was racing wide heading into the backstretch. She settled in sixth place and moved up outside in the stretch. She found her best stride in the lane and was pulling away from the rest in a solid runner-up finish. Swiss Skydiver held 3rd by a neck over Tempers Rising. Impeccable Style and His Glory were next, and Ursula was the distant trailer. The top two finishers will most likely meet again in the Fair Grounds Oaks on March 21. 

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Kentucky Oaks Points Leaderboard (thru UAE Oaks 2-20-20)

70 Points: Finite

50 Points: British Idiom, Down On Da Bayou (UAE Oaks winner)

20 Points: Dubai Love (UAE Oaks runner-up)

12 Points: Donna Veloce

10 Points: Harvey’s Lil Goil, Lake Avenue, Lazy Daisy, Lucrezia, Serein, Swiss Skydiver, Tonalist’s Shape, Venetian Harbour, Wicked Whisper

7 Points: Tempers Rising

6 Points: Motu, Perfect Alibi

5 Points: Comical, Gingham

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Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2020 Contenders (2-21-20)

#1 - DONNA VELOCE - BC Juvenile Fillies & Starlet runner-up worked 5f at LRC Feb. 20.  

#2 - FINITE - Ran winning streak to five in Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2).    

#3 - BRITISH IDIOM - Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) runner-up finish was first loss.

#4 - VENETIAN HARBOR - Romped in last pair including Las Virgenes (G2).

#5 - HARVEY’S LIL GOIL - Daughter of American Pharoah was sharp in Busanda Feb. 2.

Article by Jarrod Horak

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Risen Star & Rachel Alexandra Stakes 2020 Video

My Derby & Oaks video series continues with the Rachel Alexandra Stakes & Risen Star Stakes from Fair Grounds.

 

Kentucky Oaks 2020 Blog: BC Juvenile Fillies Recap

The Kentucky Oaks points race series for 2020 had it’s biggest stop year at Santa Anita Park on Friday, Nov. 1, and British Idiom locked up the Eclipse Award for top juvenile filly with a neck victory over Donna Veloce in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). The next two points races are both on November 30 (Demoiselle at AQU and Golden Rod at CD).

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! British Idiom capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Kentucky Oaks 2020 Points Race Recaps

BC JUVENLE FILLIES - Winner: British Idiom ($7.40)

The pace did not play out quite as expected. It was contested, and I landed on Bast because I thought she would sit the right stalking trip behind fast fractions. I was not expecting her to be dueling on the lead with longshot Two Sixty and third choice Wicked Whisper. Donna Veloce sat in the garden spot behind the three dueling leaders, and she got first run and took over in the stretch under Flavien Prat. She only had one sprint prep under her belt and her lack of seasoning cost her the win. British Idiom was able to save ground behind the speed, and with two starts and a grade one route win on her resume, she was able to wear down Donna Veloce to prevail by a neck. Bast just kept on trying all the way to the wire and was about two lengths behind the top pair. This was a big effort to finish 3rd for Bob Baffert’s filly. Her two pace rivals faded badly, and the final results could have looked quite different if she was able to stalk the pace. Donna Veloce put in a very big effort in just her second lifetime start. She has plenty of upside. British Idiom will almost certainly get the top juvenile filly award. Perfect Alibi was 4th, followed by Wicked Whisper, Lazy Daisy, Comical, K P Dreamin, and Two Sixty. The final time was a slow 1:47.07 on the deep, tiring main track. 

You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse

Breeders' Cup 2019 Friday Stakes Recaps

BREEDERS’ CUP 2019 STAKES RECAPS

Friday, November 1, 2019

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Storm the Court capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.  

BC JUVENILE TURF SPRINT - Winner: Four Wheel Drive ($5.00)

Four Wheel Drive was bet down to 3-2 and ran like a strong favorite. He went straight to the front from post 9, and this was a crafty ride by Irad Ortiz Jr. He broke alertly and seized control early, and Ortiz Jr. kept looking inside to get a good look at the early competition, which included Chimney Rock. Ortiz Jr. saw that he could clear the field, and he scooted closer to the rail and it was basically game over after the opening quarter. He was never in any serious danger of losing and won by 3/4ths of a length over Chimney Rock. The latter showed much improved tactical speed under Jose Ortiz and was clearly second best in a solid effort. Another Miracle nipped Kimari for 3rd, and Dr Simpson, Encoder, Dream Shot, Alligator Alley, Cambria, A’Ali, King Neptune, and Band Practice completed the order of finish.

BC JUVENILE TURF - Winner: Structor ($12.60)

In many of these BC races, especially the turf affairs, there are multiple possible outcomes depending on trip and post position, and those factors were on full display in this flat mile turf race. Graceful Kitten had a clear early lead but faltered in the stretch. 116-1 bomber Proven Strategies chased and took the lead in the lane but could not hold off the stretch runners. Local hope Billy Batts outran his 55-1 odds. He was in 3rd for much of the running and lead late, but Structor for Chad Brown sat the winning trip from post 2, and Jose Ortiz gave the winner a beautiful ride. He saved ground stalking the pace from midpack, and patiently sat behind horses while waiting for room in the stretch. He found clear sailing in the lane and took off late to win going away by a bit less than a length. Billy Batts held 2nd by a neck over stalking maiden Gear Jockey. Overbet late runner Decorated Invader was up for 4th, and overseas chalk Arizona ended up a troubled 5th and could have easily been right there with a different trip and post. Proven Strategies weakened to 6th, and there was a dead-heat for 7th between Fort Myers and Hit The Road. The latter bothered Deviant and was placed last through disqualification. Our Country, Andesite, War Beast, Peace Achieved, and Graceful Kitten also ran. Structor is expected to try the Derby trail next year, and he threw his hat in the ring for 2-year-old champion.

BC JUVENLE FILLIES - Winner: British Idiom ($7.40)

The pace did not play out quite as expected. It was contested, and I landed on Bast because I thought she would sit the right stalking trip behind fast fractions. I was not expecting her to be dueling on the lead with longshot Two Sixty and third choice Wicked Whisper. Donna Veloce sat in the garden spot behind the three dueling leaders, and she got first run and took over in the stretch under Flavien Prat. She only had one sprint prep under her belt and her lack of seasoning cost her the win. British Idiom was able to save ground behind the speed, and with two starts and a grade one route win on her resume, she was able to wear down Donna Veloce to prevail by a neck. Bast just kept on trying all the way to the wire and was about two lengths behind the top pair. This was a big effort to finish 3rd for Bob Baffert’s filly. Her two pace rivals faded badly, and the final results could have looked quite different if she was able to stalk the pace. Donna Veloce put in a very big effort in just her second lifetime start. She has plenty of upside. British Idiom will almost certainly get the top juvenile filly award. Perfect Alibi was 4th, followed by Wicked Whisper, Lazy Daisy, Comical, K P Dreamin, and Two Sixty. The final time was a slow 1:47.07.

BC JUVENILE FILLIES TURF - Winner: Sharing ($29.60)

Sharing worked out a super stalking trip from post 11 under Manny Franco. Graham Motion’s well-bred filly was tracking the pace about one path off the rail, and was in the perfect spot for much of the running. Sweet Melania broke from post 12 and was on or near the lead throughout. The Pletcher trainee was in front turning for home but Sharing tipped out, took the lead, and prevailed by a length and a quarter over Daahyeh. The latter was an overseas shipper, and she was my value top choice. She sat a nice inner trip from post 5, but Sharing was a bit more forward while getting the jump on her, and that was the major difference when all was said and done. Sweet Melania held 3rd, and Albigna was too far back in 13th and could only manage 4th. Selflessly was unable to work out a trip from post 13. She was wide throughout while in range, but could not overcome the lost ground and ended up 5th. Croughavouke was next, followed by Abscond, Tango, Shadn, Etoile, Crystalle, Fair Maiden, Unforgetable, and Living in the Past.

BC JUVENILE - Winner: Storm the Court ($93.80)

It was bombs away in the Juvenile, but this was probably not as big a surprise as the payoffs suggest. After Breeders’ Futurity (G1) hero Maxfield scratched, we were left with a less than stellar field of eight with two standouts, and once you got past the two favorites, anyone else could have won. Dennis’ Moment was the favorite based on a big local workout and endless hype from Dale Romans. His main accomplishment was a grade three victory in the Iroquois, and that first Derby points race is hardly a predictor of long term success. Local grade one winner Eight Rings was the second choice, and he sure looked like a need to lead type for Bob Baffert. Dennis’ drew the rail and figured to save ground tracking the pace, and those plans went out the window after he stumbled at the start. The favorite was virtually eliminated before he got started, and the race should have fallen into the lap of Eight Rings. The latter should have been sent to the lead, but jockey John Velazquez is frequently comfortable pressing outside in these situations, and he allowed Storm the Court and Flavien Prat to set the pace. Eight Rings easily handled Storm the Court in the American Pharoah (G1), but the tables were turned today. Storm the Court fought hard throughout on the lead and failed to let anyone pass. Golden Gate turf route maiden winner Anneau d’Or stalked the pace, came up to the early leader and looked poised to go on by, but he was turned away and missed by a neck. The top two were well clear of show finisher Wrecking Crew. The latter chased throughout and was best of the rest. Scabbard ended up a flat 4th. He was the third most likely winner on paper after his runner-up finish in the Iroquois (G3), but that race is looking worse by the moment. Full Flat, a fading Eight Rings, and Shoplifted were next, and Dennis’ Moment trailed throughout. The final time (1:44.93) was much better than the BC Juvenile Fillies, but this did not feel like a strong race, especially with the non-efforts by the two favorites. You can draw a line through this race for Dennis’ Moment. He had no chance to strut his stuff, but he has not really done much yet. He is 2-for-4 with one grade three win. Eight Rings seems to need everything his own way, and he is just too unreliable. The one horse to watch might be Anneau d’Or. This was just his second lifetime start and first on dirt. Just like Donna Veloce in the Juvenile Fillies, he put in an excellent effort considering his lack of experience.

Article by Jarrod Horak

Breeders' Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies 2019 Video Preview

Check out my BC Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies video preview for Today's Racing Digest.


 

Kentucky Oaks 2020 Blog: BC Juvenile Fillies Preview

The Kentucky Oaks points race series for 2020 got started with the Pocahontas (G2) Sept. 14, and was followed by the Chandelier (G1) Sept. 27, and I covered those races on my first Oaks blog Sept. 30. There were two more Oaks preps earlier this month. British Idiom was much the best in the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland, and Wicked Whisper controlled the pace in the Frizette (G1) at Belmont Park. The next points race is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Santa Anita Nov. 1.

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Kentucky Oaks 2020 Points Race Recaps

Alcibiades Recap (10-4-19) - Winner: British Idiom ($9.20)

The stalkers dominated this race. 64-1 outside Spitefulness set the pace and Sequin was in chase mode, but neither could stay the distance. British Idiom stalked those two, took over in the lane, and pulled well to to score by 6+ lengths under Javier Castellano. Perfect Alibi followed the winner throughout but could not keep pace with that one while well clear of the rest. Beaten favorite Alandra ran a deceptively good race. She lost all chance with a troubled beginning and was the only closer making any kind of a late run. She was near the back of the pack for the first half-mile, slowly began moving up, and made a long, sustained run to finish a clear 3rd. She went to the front in her debut and was expected to be close to the pace in this race, but had to change tactics after a bad beginning. Gone Glimmering stalked and got past Sequin for 4th, and they were followed by Three D Flag, Spitefulness, How Ironic, Micheline, Western Taffy, and Heir of Light. No doubt British Idiom was best, but Alandra is worth following and is not far behind that one on ability. Perfect Alibi had no excuses. The multiple graded sprint winner was unable to take advantage of her seasoning edge.

Frizette (G1) Recap (10-6-19) - Winner: Wicked Whisper ($7.90)

Wicked Whisper got loose again, and I have no idea how good she is. She did the same thing in her bow. At some point she will be challenged early, and we will learn more when that happens. At this stage, she is a quality one turn filly on the front end, and this was a suspect field. Joel Rosario was able to hustle the eventual winner to a clear advantage early, and she was never seriously threatened. Miss Marissa and Quality Response gave futile chase, and neither looked like strong contenders on numbers. Frank’s Rockette stalked outside and had every chance to make a race of it but was second best again. That’s three straight runner-up efforts in the graded ranks for the Bill Mott trainee, and she does not seem to be getting any better. Maiden Slam Dunk ended up 3rd, and she flattered Alandra if anything. Ice Princess passed tired rivals and was 4th, and my value top choice Daphne Moon stumbled at the start and never got involved. Miss Marissa and Quality Response trailed.

You can read the rest of this blog at The Runaway Horse...

Breeders' Cup 2019 Preps from Keeneland: Phoenix, Alcibiades, Breeders' Futurity

Check out my Breeders' Cup 2019 Win & You're In video from Keeneland for Oct. 4 & 5 below!