Kentucky Derby 2020 Blog: BC Juvenile Recap

The very early Kentucky Derby 2020 picture was turned upside down following a top three surprise in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita Park on Friday, Nov. 1. Dennis’ Moment stumbled at the start, Eight Rings chased and retreated, and Maxfield scratched. It was anything goes after those events, and Storm the Court lead the longshot parade at the Great Race Place. The next Derby points race is the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 30.   

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Storm the Court capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps

BC JUVENILE Recap (11-1-19) - Winner: Storm the Court ($93.80)

It was bombs away in the Juvenile, but this was probably not as big a surprise as the payoffs suggest. After Breeders’ Futurity (G1) hero Maxfield scratched, we were left with a less than stellar field of eight with two apparent standouts. Dennis’ Moment was the favorite based on a big local workout and endless hype from Dale Romans. His main accomplishment was a grade three victory in the Iroquois, and that first Derby points race is hardly a predictor of long term success. Local grade one winner Eight Rings was the second choice, and he sure looked like a need to lead type for Bob Baffert. Dennis’ drew the rail and figured to save ground tracking the pace, and those plans went out the window after he stumbled at the start. The favorite was virtually eliminated before he got started, and the race should have fallen into the lap of Eight Rings. The latter should have been sent to the lead, but jockey John Velazquez is frequently comfortable pressing outside in these situations, and he allowed Storm the Court and Flavien Prat to set the pace. Eight Rings easily handled Storm the Court in the American Pharoah (G1), but the tables were turned today. Storm the Court fought hard throughout on the lead and failed to let anyone pass. Golden Gate turf route maiden winner Anneau d’Or stalked the pace, came up to the early leader and looked poised to go on by, but he was turned away to miss by a neck. The top two were well clear of show finisher Wrecking Crew. The latter chased throughout and was best of the rest. Scabbard ended up a flat 4th. He was the third most likely winner on paper after his runner-up finish in the Iroquois (G3), but that race is looking worse by the moment. Full Flat, a fading Eight Rings, and Shoplifted were next, and Dennis’ Moment trailed throughout. The final time (1:44.93) was much better than the BC Juvenile Fillies, but this did not feel like a strong race, especially with the non-efforts by the two favorites. You can draw a line through this race for Dennis’ Moment. He had no chance to strut his stuff, but he has not really done much yet. He is 2-for-4 with one grade three win. Eight Rings seems to need everything his own way, and he is just too unreliable. The one horse to watch might be Anneau d’Or. This was just his second lifetime start and first on dirt. Just like Donna Veloce in the Juvenile Fillies, he put in an excellent effort considering his lack of experience.

Read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse

Breeders' Cup Friday 2019 Video: 5 Horses Worth Betting

Check out my Breeders' Cup Friday 2019 video preview below! I look at one horse worth betting in each of the five BC Friday races at Santa Anita Park on 11-1-19.

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Kentucky Derby 2020 Blog: BC Juvenile Preview

The 2019 BC Juvenile will be run at Santa Anita Park on Friday, Nov. 1. Southern California based runners captured six of the nine previous runnings at Santa Anita (Capote, Brocco, Action This Day, Midshipman, New Year’s Day, Texas Red). Eight Rings is the top local hope this year and is expected to vie for favoritism with Dennis’s Moment.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) 2019 Pre-Entries (in alphabetical order):
 
American Theorem - Solid 2nd in American Pharoah (G1). Not expected to run in Juvenile.
Anneau d’Or - Romped in turf route bow at GG. BC Juvenile Turf (G1) a better option.
Billy Batts - Turf router has already run six times. Would be a big surprise.
Dennis’ Moment - Talented shipper for Dale Romans. Strong win threat.
Eight Rings - Baffert’s local G1 winner might go all the way.
Full Flat - Japanese shipper is bred for dirt but this is a very big ask.
King Neptune - Competed in 9 overseas sprints and scored once in synthetic debut.
Maxfield - Slow starts and strong late run in both starts. G1 winner late threat. 
Scabbard - Iroquois (G3) runner-up needs to make up ground on Dennis’. 
Shoplifted - No threat in American Pharoah (G1). Not good enough at this stage.
Storm the Court - Non-threatening 3rd in American Pharoah (G1). Needs to show more.
Wrecking Crew - 2nd in Best Pal (G1) and Del Mar Futurity (G1). Needs to run faster. 

BC Juvenile Comments: Eight Rings catches a field without much early zip, and will probably try to run them off their feet again. Dennis’ Moment has early-pressing versatility and continues to fire bullets after back-to-back wins. Maxfield cannot afford to break slow and spot the two favorites a few lengths. He can win this if the pace heats up. Scabbard is a decent finisher and looks best of the rest.

You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse

Breeders' Cup Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies 2019 Video Preview

Check out my BC Juvenile & Juvenile Fillies video preview for Today's Racing Digest.


 

Dr. Atlas: Champagne Stakes 2019 Picks: Gozilla, Alpha Sixty Six, Tiz the Law, Green Light Go

Belmont Park (10/5/2019)

Race 10: Gr. I Champagne Stakes (8F on Dirt, $500,000 for 3yr Olds)

Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race (10-4-2-1) - Check out our first Kentucky Derby 2020 blog post here!

1 – Alpha Sixty Six (5-1): The $400K purchase won here on September 7th and has two quality works since. Johnny V. will be in the saddle and he’s been red hot as of late winning races on both coasts.  This is a horse that has the pedigree of a derby contender, so we’ll see what he does from the rail.

2 –Truculent (30-1): Get blinkers and moves back to the dirt for Jack Sisterton.  The distance should not be a problem and I think this one could get better with age.

3 – Green Light Go (8-5): The morning line favorite has won two in a row for James Jerkens and should only improve with distance.  He’s the only graded stakes winner in here and his Saratoga Stakes victory sure looked strong.

4 – Three Technique (7-2): Broke his maiden in his third start where he rallied from off the pace to win by five-plus lengths.  Irad Ortiz will replace his brother.  This guy was favored in each of his previous starts.

5 – Gozilla (6-1): Super impressive first time out at Saratoga then followed that up with a decent third in the Gr. I Hopeful.  He may not have liked the track conditions that day and with his speed I think he has a great shot to rebound.

6 – Big City Bob (20-1): Has won two in a row for Jorge Duarte with her last coming over 8F.  He won at big odds that day and the time was nothing impressive, so I think he has his work cut out for him.

7 – Tiz the Law (5-2): Won impressively first time out at Saratoga going 6.5F for Barclay Tagg (State-bred Md Sp Wt).  He’s had four works since that race with two bullets and seems ready to roll for his second start.    

Wagers:

#5 to win
Exacta Key 5 – 1,3
Exacta Key 1,3 – 5
Trifecta 1,3,5 – 1,3,5 – 2,7

Analysis by Dr. Atlas