There have been four Kentucky Derby 2020 points races this year, and the LeComte Stakes (G3) at Fair Grounds has been the strongest race so far. There are three Derby preps this weekend (Holy Bull, Robert B. Lewis, Withers).
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Enforceable capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.Tiz the Law is the 3-5 morning line favorite for the Holy Bull Stakes (G2), and Thousand Words is 4-5 to remain unbeaten in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita Park. The final points race on Saturday, Feb. 1 is the Withers Stakes at the Big A. Shotski is the 2-1 choice on the line and is the most vulnerable of the three Derby points race favorites on Saturday. For analysis of those three Derby preps, check out my Today’s Racing Digest video.Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race RecapsLeComte Stakes (G3) Recap from Fair Grounds (1-18-20) - Winner: Enforceable ($15.60)A big field with a solid pace and stamina won out. Bango, Shashashakemeup, and Jack the Umpire were the early instigators. Mr. Monomoy sat behind them and was the only forwardly placed runner around at the end. Enforceable was wide early and often from post ten. He raced 11th of 13 for the first half-mile and picked up the pace nicely after that. He showed a nice turn of foot in the stretch and kicked clear to score by a length and a half. My top choice Silver State rallied smartly for the place in just his third career start for Steve Amussen. I thought he ran every bit as well as the winner. This was his first start around two turns and he has plenty of upside. Mr. Monomoy missed 2nd by a neck and was well clear of 4th place finisher Finnick the Fierce. Beaten favorite Scabbard was a flat 6th and was followed by Shashashakemeup, Excession, Halo Again, Bango, Perfect Star, Jack the Umpire, Sycamore Run, and New Eagle.Smarty Jones Stakes Recap from Oaklawn Park (1-24-20) - Winner: Gold Street ($22.80)Everything about this race was confusing. First of all, the track was muddy, and some horses probably did not handle the footing. There were a trio of sprinters stretching out in distance (Lykan, Nucky, Gold Street), and the pace figured to be fast. Spoiler alert, it wasn’t! Lykan was rank early and Nucky never got involved. Gold Street was exiting back-to-back dirt sprint wins in the slop, and he just got out there and completely controlled the pace in this spot. My value top choice Lynn’s Map took up chasing duties because someone had to. Gold Street was in cruise control from start to finish and scored by a very comfortable 2+ lengths. Three Technique stalked from the outside post and was clearly second best in a solid effort. Shoplifted stalked the pace and was best of the rest in 3rd, and his stablemate Silver Prospector was 4th. Lynn’s Map weakened to 5th, and Shared Sense, Lykan, Jungle Runner, and Nucky completed the order of finish. The speed figure came back solid but there is a very good chance that this was not a strong race, at least when it comes to the Derby trail. My best guess is that the top two finishers are milers at best.
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The Kentucky Derby 2020 preps are winding down for the juvenile set. Silver Prospector took the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) Nov. 30. Shotski wired the field in the Remsen (G2) Dec. 7, and Thousand Words captured the Los Al Futurity (G2) later that day for trainer Bob Baffert. The Derby trail has one more stop for the juveniles next week, the $400k Springboard Mile at Remington Park on Sunday, Dec. 15. They will all officially turn three on January 1, and the Jerome at Aqueduct is the first points race of 2020.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Thousand Words capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) Recap (11-30-19) - Winner: Silver Prospector ($17.80)
This graded point race was run at a mile and a sixteenth in the slop. Longshot New Eagle set the pace and favorites South Bend and Tiz the Law were in chase mode. I initially thought my value top choice Silver Prospector would dictate terms, but he was patiently handled under Ricardo Santana Jr. The eventual winner rallied while out in the clear, and that was the key to victory. 87-1 bomber Finnick the Fierce rallied to edge Tiz the Law for the place, but the latter probably could have captured this event with a different trip. He was hemmed in from the inside post for much of the running, and there is little to no doubt that he would have finished at least 2nd if he sat the same journey as Silver Prospector. Enforceable rallied from last and was gaining late in an okay 4th place finish. He ran out of ground and was in the wrong race. He should have been in the Remsen (G2) at a mile and an eighth. New Eagle faded to 5th, and South Bend, Fighting Seabee, and Two Last Words trailed. The jury is out on the strength of this race, and the wet track makes it tougher to decipher.
Remsen Stakes (G2) Recap (12-7-19) - Winner: Shotski ($19.60)
Shotski rode the speed bias to victory in this graded affair at a mile and an eighth. He was one of five front running winners on the card, and the pace was slow in this event. He was coasting along up front, opened up in the stretch, and held on to score by a diminishing 1/2 length. I don’t think this was a strong race, and the only one I am interested in is runner up Ajaaweed. The latter was the only one making up any ground, and he really moved forward after a well-beaten 4th in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). He has been part of my Derby list all along and seems to want more ground. Show finisher Chase Tracker chased the pace from the inside post and was almost four lengths behind Ajaaweed. Informed was best of the rest in 4th, and was followed by Prince James, a flat Alpha Sixty Six, Cleon Jones, a fading Forza Di Oro, and Amends.
Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) Recap (12-7-19) - Winner: Thousand Words ($5.40)
Only four lined up in this graded dirt route on a good (sealed) track. All four were decent runners, and Bob Baffert trained half the field. Speaking of Baffert, he absolutely owns this race, and it was surprising that Thousand Words was not the favorite. He should have been. The pace was quick in here with High Velocity sprinting to the early lead. The other three were in chase mode, and Thousand Words was the closest pursuer. The latter took a short lead in the stretch and BC Juvenile runner-up Anneau d’Oro immediately confronted him. Those two bounded clear and battled all the way to the wire. The both had the lead late, and Thousand Words fought back and scored by a neck. Anneau d’Oro ran a winning race in defeat, and High Velocity was another five lengths back in 3rd. Wrecking Crew gave way and was eased. In the end, it was tough to read this fast early/slow late stakes on a wet track. The top two are decent sorts.
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