Road to Kentucky Derby 2026 Report (3-16-26)

The Virginia Derby was the lone road to Kentucky Derby prep race last week and Incredibolt bounced back with a sharp victory. In this report, I will recap the Virginia Derby, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 28 points races, my top choices have 10 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The road to the Derby continues with the Louisiana Derby (G2) and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on March 21.

LA Derby field (race 12): 1 – Pavlovian, 2 – Autobahn, 3 – Chip Honcho, 4 – Universe, 5 – Golden Tempo, 6 – Spirit of Royal, 7 – Blacksmith, 8 – Easterly, 9 – Emerging Market

Jeff Ruby Steaks field (race 12): 1 – Turf Star, 2 – Fulleffort, 3 – Baytown Dreamer, 4 – Two Out Hero, 5 – Black Hornet, 6 – Medici, 7 – Maximus Prime, 8 – Chaos Agent, 9 – Brave Force, 10 – Argos, 11 – Stark Contrast, 12 – Stop the Car

Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps

Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs (3-14-26): Trips made all the difference in this one-turn event at a mile and an eighth. Buetane was bottled up in traffic from the inside post and never really had clear sailing. At the other end of the spectrum, Incredibolt ($14.40) worked out a great tactical trip under Jaime Torres. He tracked the three early leaders, pounced on those tiring runners, got the jump on the closers, and won by 4 lengths (88 BSF). Grittiness rallied from last of 10 to complete the exacta and Confessional closed wide and was best of the rest in third. A troubled Buetane ended up a better than appears fourth under Flavien Prat and he had energy on the gallop out. Lockstocknpharoah set the pace and weakened to 5th, and maiden Ocelli (6th), Clocker Special (7th), Work (8th), Epic Desire (9th), and disappointing 4-1 shot High Camp (10th) also ran. Riley Mott saddled the winner. Fractions: 23.49, 47.15, 1:11.33, 1:35.74, 1:47.76.

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