Saturday’s Dwyer features an interesting combination of stakes winners, improving sophomores and the return of last year’s two-year-old champion Ted Noffey. I went through each horse’s recent performances, speed figures, pace ratings and class to determine which runners have the best opportunity to win.
1. Bravaro (15-1)
Bravaro has three wins and two runner-up finishes from eight career starts. He exits a stakes victory at Charles Town, where he rallied from fifth in a seven-horse field to win by a half-length at seven furlongs.
His latest performance produced a 147 Final Time Rating, 97 FIRE Number and 146 CPR. Those are impressive numbers, but I have reservations about whether he can duplicate that performance at Belmont Park.
His previous five Final Time Ratings were 129, 129, 108, 110 and 123. That makes the latest figure a significant jump forward. I’m not convinced the improvement is sustainable, particularly when considering the different track configuration. The bullring oval at Charles Town has nothing in common with Belmont Park.
He should attempt to save ground while tracking the pace. I respect his recent victory, but I need to see him reproduce those numbers at Belmont Park.
2. Overtime Rules (15-1)
Overtime Rules has won two of three starts and enters this race following back-to-back front-running victories at Colonial Downs and Keeneland.
His Final Time Ratings have improved from 92 to 117 to 149. That’s an encouraging progression, and his pace ratings of 147, 153 and 156 show that he has considerable early speed.
The Samuel Marin-Arnaud Delacour combination has performed well, recording a win, five seconds and a third in eight starts together.
However, this is a significant class test. He will encounter several horses with early speed, and the competition should be considerably tougher than what he faced in his most recent allowance victory. He also loses Lasix.
I like his improving pattern, but I question whether he can maintain his speed when facing this kind of pressure.
3. Stimulate (6-1)
Stimulate is a son of Tapit with two wins and a third-place finish from four starts. Both victories came with Lasix, and he was prominent on the pace in each of those performances.
His Final Time Ratings were 99, 137, 128 and 138. He has demonstrated the ability to compete at seven furlongs and one mile, and his latest performance came in the Bourbon Flight Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth.
Last time, he chased the pace from second before taking the lead and eventually finishing third, beaten a little more than seven lengths.
The cutback to a one-turn mile should be helpful. He has enough tactical speed to secure a favorable position, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a competitive race.
My biggest concern is the absence of Lasix. Both of his victories came with the medication, and he will not have it in this event.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest.
