The $175,000 Pumpkin Pie Stakes is Race 6, a seven-furlong dirt event for fillies and mares. Scheduled post time is 2:10 p.m. Eastern. This is one of four stakes races on the Belmont Park card, and I’ll be covering the other three in separate previews.
Pumpkin Pie Stakes Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Indy Bay
Indy Bay could show speed from the inside post for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., with Micah Husbands back aboard. She has five wins, four seconds and two thirds from 15 career starts. Her record this year includes one win and three runner-up finishes from seven starts.
I’m willing to forgive her most recent effort, when she finished fifth and was beaten 11 lengths in the Princess Rooney. She had been the even-money favorite in the Sheer Drama Stakes two starts earlier, finishing a clear second behind her stablemate Kerry’s Kiss, who subsequently won the Princess Rooney.
Her three previous strong efforts included a 141 Final Time Rating while winning a seven-furlong race by seven lengths, followed by a 149 and a 143 in runner-up finishes in stakes company at Gulfstream. The latest figure was only 110, but the earlier numbers make her a contender if she can rebound.
Indy Bay has early-pressing speed, the rail post and a race shape that does not include a confirmed front-runner. I can see her being forwardly placed and making her presence felt throughout.
2. Amalfi Drive
Amalfi Drive has the best overall pace ratings in this field, and I expect her new rider Antonio Fresu to be aggressive. There isn’t an obvious confirmed front-runner, so this could be an opportunity for her to get position on or very near the lead.
Her recent Final Time Ratings include a 131, a 126 and a 137 when she finished second in a stakes race. Her last two stakes figures were 120 and 129, so she needs to get back to that 137 effort to be a realistic win threat.
The pace numbers are what make her interesting. She has posted multiple 146 and 173 pace ratings, which could give her the ability to establish the early lead. If she breaks sharply, I expect Fresu to send her.
Her most recent race came at Timonium in a six-and-a-half-furlong stakes event. She rallied from off the pace to finish fourth, beaten only three-quarters of a length. That bullring configuration is unusual compared with this assignment at Belmont, and she showed some late interest last time.
I also like her earlier Churchill Downs effort, when she battled on the pace in a one-turn mile and won by more than two lengths. If she can reproduce that form while using her pace advantage, she could be dangerous.
3. Beauty Reigns
Beauty Reigns is a legitimate trifecta contender for trainer Bill Mott, with Junior Alvarado named to ride. She has five starts at seven furlongs, with two wins and two thirds, and she has generally been competitive at the distance.
Her best recent effort came when she earned a 152 Final Time Rating and defeated Senza Parole at Saratoga in July. She had Lasix that day, however, and will not have it for this race.
Since then, she has posted a 131 and a 129 against strong Grade 1 and Grade 2 company. In the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom, she finished third behind R Disaster and Senza Parole. Our Disaster controlled the pace, Senza Parole chased and finished a clear second, and Beauty Reigns was best of the rest.
The company she has been facing is a positive, and she could bounce back in this non-graded stakes event. Still, I have some concern about the race flow. She may not get the ideal setup, and I prefer others with better tactical speed.
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