The Grade 3 River City Stakes headlines Saturday’s turf action at Churchill Downs on November 7. The $300,000 event, scheduled as Race 8, brings together an eight-horse field of older turf runners going a mile and an eighth. Post time is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. Eastern.
Lambeth, a sharp closer coming off a victory in the Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes, is the 9-5 morning-line favorite. However, the shorter distance and potentially modest pace could make his task more difficult. Ole Crazy Bone, a Grade 2 winner with proven class and tactical speed, could take advantage of the projected race shape. Kupuna also deserves serious consideration after putting together a consistent series of stakes performances.
Here is a closer look at the field and the Today’s Racing Digest numbers.
River City Stakes: Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Carcano (20-1)
Carcano will break from the rail for trainer Vicki Oliver. He is winless in two previous starts at Churchill Downs, without a top-three finish, and will make his first appearance at a mile and an eighth.
He won an optional claiming event at Colonial Downs at a mile and three-sixteenths two starts ago. Last time, he rallied strongly in the Colonial Cup Stakes at a mile and a half on turf, missing by just a head.
Carcano should attempt to save ground from the inside post and make one late run. His 149 final-time rating from his most recent race makes him interesting from a numbers standpoint, but I am concerned that he could be too far behind when the field turns for home.
2. Mercante (8-1)
Mercante returns with blinkers and reconnects with Walter Rodriguez, who guided him to a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Park in March.
His most recent victory came at Churchill Downs in May 2025, when he won the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth on turf. He has also finished third in the River City Stakes and second in the Grade 2 Wise Dan.
Mercante has been competitive in several stakes races, although he has gone through a lengthy winless stretch. He has finished in the top three in three of four starts at this distance.
The inside post and tactical speed could help him secure a favorable trip in a race without an abundance of early speed. I prefer him underneath rather than on top, but he is an appealing candidate for the exacta and trifecta.
3. Vote No (8-1)
Vote No is a late runner for trainer Kelsey Danner, with Umberto Rispoli listed to ride.
He finished second in the Tapit Stakes at Kentucky Downs, beaten by a half-length after rallying from far back. Last time, he finished third in the Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes at a mile and a half, closing from approximately 16 lengths behind.
Vote No has the numbers to compete with this group. His final-time ratings in his last three starts were 140, 155, and 144. His projected Comprehensive Performance Rating of 140 is the best in the field.
However, he faces a significant distance cutback, and his closing running style could work against him if the early fractions are moderate. He has enough ability to make an impact, but I would prefer to see a stronger pace scenario.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
