Road to Kentucky Derby 2016: Handicapping the Louisiana Derby (Video)

The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at nine furlongs is the Kentucky Derby 2016 prep this week and it is worth a total of 170 Derby qualifying points (100-40-20-10). 

The Louisiana Derby attracted a well-matched field of 11 headed by G2 Risen Star winner Gun Runner, G3 LeComte hero Mo Tom, and G1 Champagne winner Greenpointcrusader. 

Last Week at Santa Anita Park (March 17-20)

A rough way to end the racing week for jockey Santiago Gonzalez. After booting home two winners on Friday, he suffered a fractured jaw when his mount Follini (uninjured) clipped heels and fell in the fifth race on Sunday. He is expected to be out for six weeks. Edwin Maldonado had a riding hat trick on Sunday and leading rider Rafael Bejarano and Joe Talamo both had two riding doubles last week. 

Thurs­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 17

Fast main track and good turf course (turf rail at 30 feet). Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8f, 8f, 6.5f). The three turf races were captured by a patient runner at a flat mile and two downhill stalkers.

Joe Talamo booted home a pair.

Fri­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 18

Fast main track and firm turf course (turf rail at 20 feet). Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 7f, 5.5f). The three turf races were captured by a stalker (8f) and two closers (8f, 6.5f).

Santiago Gonzalez and Joe Talamo both booted home a pair.

Satur­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 19

Fast main track and firm turf course. Only one wire-to-wire winner on dirt (6.5f). The four turf races were captured by a downhill stalker, a flat mile closer, a downhill closer, and a 9f wire-to-wire winner.

Rafael Bejarano (2 dirt routes), Flavien Prat (2 downhill turf wins), and Fernando Perez each booted home a pair. Doug O’Neill saddled two turf winners including Smoove It in the Irish O’Brien.

Sun­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 20

Fast main track and firm turf course. Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5f, 6f, 6f). The three turf races were captured by a downhill frontrunner, a flat mile stalker, a downhill closer, and a wire-to-wire winner at one mile (rail at 20 feet).

Hat trick for Edwin Maldonado. Two more wins for leading rider Rafael Bejarano. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer saddled two winners.

If you are interested in full card analysis, I am selling Santa Anita full cards each weekend at The Runaway Horse. You can check out full card recaps with highlights on our What You Missed page.

I also post free daily tickets from Santa Anita Park at Pick 6 Blog. You can also read my recaps at Pick 6 Blog.  

Santa Anita Park photos by Stacy Edwards.

Last Week at Santa Anita Park (March 10-13)

The weather was unsettled and heavy rains forced the final three races to be canceled on Friday. It was another good week for leading rider Rafael Bejarano.  

Thurs­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 10 

Fast main track and good turf course. The 4th race was originally scheduled for the downhill turf course and was moved to the main track. Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8f, 8f, 10f). The two flat mile turf races were captured by stalkers (rail at 20 feet).

Hat trick for Tyler Baze.

Fri­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 11

Fast main track and good turf course. At least that is how the day began. The track was sealed by the fourth race and was wet fast through the sixth race. The final three races were cancelled due to heavy rain. Early/pressing types won all five dirt races and speed was better as it got wetter. The downhill turf sprint (2nd race) was nabbed by late runner Doodetta (rail at 30 feet).

Riding double for Flavien Prat.

Satur­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 12

Fast main track and good turf course. The second race was moved from the downhill turf course to the main track. Four wire-to-wire winners on dirt (6f, 6.5f, 8.5f, 10f). The three flat mile turf races were taken by a front runner, a stalker, and a closer.

Hat trick for Kent Desormeaux. Riding double for Victor Espinoza.

Sun­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 13 

Fast main track and good turf course (turf rail at 10 feet). Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (6.5f, 7f, 5.5f). The two turf races were captured by a flat mile stalker and a twelve furlong closer.

Hat trick for leading rider Rafael Bejarano. Trainer Richard Baltas saddled two winners and Bejarano rode both.

If you are interested in full card analysis, I am selling Santa Anita full cards each weekend at The Runaway Horse. You can check out full card recaps with highlights on our What You Missed page.

I also post free daily tickets from Santa Anita Park at Pick 6 Blog. You can also read my recaps at Pick 6 Blog.  

Santa Anita Park photos by Stacy Edwards.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 contenders: #1 - MOHAYMEN

Mohaymen has been my top ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender since I started my list on September 30, 2015.

Mohaymen is a perfect 5-for-5 with stakes wins in the Grade 2 Nashua, Grade 2 Remsen, Grade 2 Holy Bull, and Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.

The $2.2 million son of Tapit is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and began his Grade 1 Florida Derby preparations with a four furlong breeze on March 11. The Florida Derby will be run at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, April 2 and is expected to include undefeated Two-Year-Old Champion Nyquist.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 contenders: #2 - MOR SPIRIT

My longtime #2 ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender Mor Spirit makes his next start in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on Saturday, March 12.

Mor Spirit is a $650k son of Eskendereya conditioned by Triple Crown winning trainer Bob Baffert. He has finished first or second in all five of his lifetime starts and won the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity as a juvenile and Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes earlier this year.


 

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 contenders: #3 - BRODY'S CAUSE

My #3 ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender Brody's Cause makes his much anticipated three-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday, March 12.

Brody's Cause won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last year and wrapped up his successful juvenile campaign with a rallying show finish in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

After the Tampa Bay Derby, Brody's Cause is scheduled to return to Keeneland for the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday, April 9.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 contenders: #4 - GREENPOINTCRUSADER

My current #4 ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender is Greenpointcrusader.

Greenpointcrusader won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park last fall and ended his juvenile season with a wide 7th place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

The son of Bernardini began 2016 with a 2nd place finish behind Kiaran McLaughlin's undefeated colt Mohaymen in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes On Jan 30 and the latter returned to capture the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Greenpointcrusader will make his next start in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 26.

 

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 Contenders: #5 - EXAGGERATOR

It's time to take a look at my Top 5 Kentucky Derby 2016 contenders, starting with #5, Exaggerator.

Exaggerator won the Delta Jackpot to end his 2-year-old season and began his sophomore campaign with a fine runner-up finish to unbeaten Juvenile Champion Nyquist. 

The Keith Desormeaux trainee makes his next start in the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 12.

Kentucky Derby 2016 video handicapping: Tampa Bay Derby w/Brody's Cause & San Felipe w/Mor Spirit

The road to Kentucky Derby 2016 continues on Saturday, Match 12 with the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and Grade 2 San Felipe.

Last Week at Santa Anita Park (March 3-6)

A hat trick and a pair of riding doubles gave Rafael Bejarano a commanding lead in the rider standings. 

Thurs­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 3

Fast main track and firm turf course. Only one wire-to-wire winner on dirt (one mile). A downhill stalker and a prominent throughout type at ten furlongs made up the two turf winners (rail at 20 feet).

No riding/training doubles on Thursday.

Fri­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 4

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8f, 6.5f). Two wire jobs and a patient runner made up the three flat mile turf winners (rail at 30 feet).

Hat trick for leading rider Rafael Bejarano. Agapito Delgadillo booted home a pair.

Satur­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 5 

Fast main track and firm turf course. One wire-to-wire winner on dirt (Songbird – 8.5f). A downhill stalker, a flat mile stalker, and a flat mile wire job made up the three turf winners (rail at 10 feet).

Riding doubles for Rafael Bejarano, Santiago Gonzalez, Mike Smith, and Joe Talamo.

Sun­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: March 6 

Fast main track and off the turf. Five wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 8.5f, 6f, 9f, 6f).

Riding double for Rafael Bejarano. Kristin Mulhall saddled two winners.

If you are interested in full card analysis, I am selling Santa Anita full cards each weekend at The Runaway Horse. You can check out full card recaps with highlights on our What You Missed page.

I also post free daily tickets from Santa Anita Park at Pick 6 Blog. You can also read my recaps at Pick 6 Blog.  
Santa Anita Park photos by Stacy Edwards.

Kentucky Derby 2016 prep races: G3 Gotham video with Shagaf, Sunny Ridge, and Conquest Big E

This week on the Kentucky Derby 2016 trail, we turn the calendar to March and head to the Big A for the Gotham Stakes, which is worth a total of 85 Derby points (50-20-10-5).

The Gotham will be run on the inner dirt track at a mile and a sixteenth and drew a field of eight, headed by 3-1 morning line favorite Shagaf. The Chad Brown trainee is a perfect 2-for-2 and the promising son of Bernardini tries two turns for the first time.

G3 Withers winner Sunny Ridge deserves plenty of respect. He also won the $100k Sappling as a juvenile and landed the place in the G1 Champagne and G3 Delta Jackpot.


Other Gotham contenders include inside speed Laoban and Holy Bull 4th place finisher Conquest Big E.

Last Week at Santa Anita Park (Feb 25-28)

Only six wire-to-wire winners on the main track at Santa Anita Park last week. Rafael Bejarano had a couple of riding doubles and Doug O'Neill had a couple of training doubles. Also, watch for Audacious Angel next time. 

Thurs­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: February 25

Fast main track and firm turf course (turf rail at 20 feet). Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (6f, 6.5f). A stalker at 10f and a patient runner at one mile made up the two turf winners.

Hat trick for Rafael Bejarano. Riding double for Martin Pedroza. Two winners for trainer Doug O’Neill.

Fri­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: February 26

Fast main track and firm turf course (turf rail at 30 feet). Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8f, 7f). A flat mile wire job and an inside stalker down the dip made up the two turf winners.

Riding double for Edwin Maldonado. Two winners for trainer Peter Eurton.

Satur­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: February 27

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 6f). A flat mile presser, a downhill stalker, and a downhill closer made up the three turf winners.

No riding/training doubles on Saturday.

Trip Notes: Audacious Angel had an uncomfortable trip in the hillside finale. She ended up 5th of 12 (beaten less than 2.5 lengths) under Gary Stevens and can go better next time.

Sun­­­day Santa Anita Park Recap: February 28

Fast main track and firm turf course. No wire-to-wire winners on dirt. A downhill stalker, a flat mile presser, and a flat mile stalker made up the three turf winners (rail at 10 feet).

Rafael Bejarano and Santiago Gonzalez both booted home a pair. Jerry Hollendorfer and Doug O’Neill both saddled two winners.

If you are interested in full card analysis, I am selling Santa Anita full cards each weekend at The Runaway Horse. You can check out full card recaps with highlights on our What You Missed page.

I also post free daily tickets from Santa Anita Park at Pick 6 Blog. You can also read my recaps at Pick 6 Blog.  

Santa Anita Park photos by Stacy Edwards.