The Runaway Horse How to Handicap Video Series #4: Pace Makes the Race

Jarrod Horak continues his How to Handicap video series with a look at pace and how it impacts a race.

Kentucky Derby 2016 contenders video featuring Lani

In this Kentucky Derby 2016 contenders video, I break down the chances of UAE Derby winner Lani.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Preview Video

It is Kentucky Derby week 2016 and here my video preview of the big race.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 Contenders: Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, Nyquist, Exaggerator, Destin

We are in Kentucky Derby 2016 countdown mode. Final works are starting to wrap up and post positions will be drawn on Wednesday, May 4.

With one week to go, here are my Top 5 Kentucky Derby contenders, video style!

2016 TRIPLE CROWN FULL CARDS

My 2016 Kentucky Derby/Triple Crown pre-sale products are ready to purchase.

The Kentucky Derby 2016 full card pre-sale product is on sale now for $12.00.

The Kentucky Derby pre-sale product includes updated notes for all Kentucky Derby 2016 hopefuls. I have also included my Kentucky Derby 2015 analysis and wagering styles to give you an idea of what to expect when my 2016 full card reports are complete.

The Kentucky Derby Day full card will be finished after post positions are drawn and fields are set next week. If you purchase the Kentucky Derby Day pre-sale product, the Kentucky Derby Day full card from Churchill Downs will be emailed to you as soon as it is complete.

Kentucky Derby Pre-sale: Click Add To Cart below ($12)

The Triple Crown 2016 full card pre-sale product is on sale now for $30.00.

The Triple Crown pre-sale product includes updated notes for all Kentucky Derby 2016 hopefuls. I have also included my Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes 2015 analysis and wagering styles to give you an idea of what to expect when my 2016 full card reports are complete.The Kentucky Derby full card will be finished after post positions are drawn and fields are set next week. If you purchase the Triple Crown pre-sale product, the full cards (Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes) will be emailed to you as soon as they are complete.

The special pre-sale prices will only be available for a limited time. Once the Kentucky Derby 2016 full card is complete, the Derby full card will be $15.00.

The Triple Crown pre-sale product is a $15.00 savings. The three full cards (Derby, Preakness, Belmont) purchased separately will cost $15/each or $45 total.

Triple Crown Pre-sale: Click Add To Cart below ($30)

Kentucky Derby 2016 prep race video series: G1 Arkansas Derby with CUPID, Suddenbreakingnews, and Whitmore

The final Kentucky Derby 2016 prep race worth 170 points is the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. The nine furlong event will be run on Saturday, April 16 and attracted a field of twelve.

G2 Rebel Stakes winner Cupid is the morning line favorite for trainer Bob Baffert. Once again, he will be facing 1-2 Southwest finishers Suddenbreakingnews and Whitmore.


 

Kentucky Derby 2016 prep race video series: Blue Grass, SA Derby, and Wood Memorial

There are four important nine furlong preps left on the road to Kentucky Derby 2016 and three of them will be contested this weekend in California, New York, and Kentucky.

The Santa Anita Derby is a rematch between the top three finishers in the San Felipe – Danzing Candy, Mor Spirit, and Exaggerator. The pace scenario might favor Mor Spirit but if the track comes up wet (a real possibility) all bets are off!

The Wood Memorial at Aqueduct features undefeated Gotham hero Shagaf but he is light on numbers. Watch for fast stakes newcomer Matt King Coal to attempt a wire job.

Finally, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland features a full field of fourteen with two also-eligibles. Fountain of Youth runner-up Zulu is the 5-2 morning line favorite and Keeneland lover Brody’s Cause tries to bounce back after his non-effort in the Tampa Bay Derby.

Road to Kentucky Derby 2016: Florida Derby and Spiral Stakes (VIDEO)

The two Kentucky Derby 2016 prep races this week are the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and the Grade 2 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park.

The Florida Derby is an intriguing match up between a pair of undefeated colts, Mohaymen and Nyquist. The nine furlong Gulfstream showcase is worth a total of 170 Derby qualifying points for the top four finishers (100-40-20-10).

The Spiral Stakes is worth 85 Derby points (50-20-10-5) and Airoforce is the morning line favorite. Last year's G2 Kentucky Jockey Club stakes hero exits a poor showing in the G2 Risen Star and tries to rebound while making his first start on synthetic footing.

Road to Kentucky Derby 2016: Handicapping the Louisiana Derby (Video)

The Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at nine furlongs is the Kentucky Derby 2016 prep this week and it is worth a total of 170 Derby qualifying points (100-40-20-10). 

The Louisiana Derby attracted a well-matched field of 11 headed by G2 Risen Star winner Gun Runner, G3 LeComte hero Mo Tom, and G1 Champagne winner Greenpointcrusader. 

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 contenders: #1 - MOHAYMEN

Mohaymen has been my top ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender since I started my list on September 30, 2015.

Mohaymen is a perfect 5-for-5 with stakes wins in the Grade 2 Nashua, Grade 2 Remsen, Grade 2 Holy Bull, and Grade 2 Fountain of Youth.

The $2.2 million son of Tapit is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and began his Grade 1 Florida Derby preparations with a four furlong breeze on March 11. The Florida Derby will be run at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, April 2 and is expected to include undefeated Two-Year-Old Champion Nyquist.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 contenders: #2 - MOR SPIRIT

My longtime #2 ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender Mor Spirit makes his next start in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes on Saturday, March 12.

Mor Spirit is a $650k son of Eskendereya conditioned by Triple Crown winning trainer Bob Baffert. He has finished first or second in all five of his lifetime starts and won the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity as a juvenile and Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes earlier this year.


 

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 contenders: #3 - BRODY'S CAUSE

My #3 ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender Brody's Cause makes his much anticipated three-year-old debut in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday, March 12.

Brody's Cause won the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last year and wrapped up his successful juvenile campaign with a rallying show finish in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

After the Tampa Bay Derby, Brody's Cause is scheduled to return to Keeneland for the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday, April 9.

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 contenders: #4 - GREENPOINTCRUSADER

My current #4 ranked Kentucky Derby 2016 contender is Greenpointcrusader.

Greenpointcrusader won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park last fall and ended his juvenile season with a wide 7th place finish in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

The son of Bernardini began 2016 with a 2nd place finish behind Kiaran McLaughlin's undefeated colt Mohaymen in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes On Jan 30 and the latter returned to capture the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.

Greenpointcrusader will make his next start in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 26.

 

Kentucky Derby 2016 Top 5 Contenders: #5 - EXAGGERATOR

It's time to take a look at my Top 5 Kentucky Derby 2016 contenders, starting with #5, Exaggerator.

Exaggerator won the Delta Jackpot to end his 2-year-old season and began his sophomore campaign with a fine runner-up finish to unbeaten Juvenile Champion Nyquist. 

The Keith Desormeaux trainee makes his next start in the G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 12.

Kentucky Derby 2016 video handicapping: Tampa Bay Derby w/Brody's Cause & San Felipe w/Mor Spirit

The road to Kentucky Derby 2016 continues on Saturday, Match 12 with the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and Grade 2 San Felipe.

Kentucky Derby 2016 prep races: G3 Gotham video with Shagaf, Sunny Ridge, and Conquest Big E

This week on the Kentucky Derby 2016 trail, we turn the calendar to March and head to the Big A for the Gotham Stakes, which is worth a total of 85 Derby points (50-20-10-5).

The Gotham will be run on the inner dirt track at a mile and a sixteenth and drew a field of eight, headed by 3-1 morning line favorite Shagaf. The Chad Brown trainee is a perfect 2-for-2 and the promising son of Bernardini tries two turns for the first time.

G3 Withers winner Sunny Ridge deserves plenty of respect. He also won the $100k Sappling as a juvenile and landed the place in the G1 Champagne and G3 Delta Jackpot.


Other Gotham contenders include inside speed Laoban and Holy Bull 4th place finisher Conquest Big E.

2016 Fountain of Youth Stakes Handicapping Video Featuring Mohaymen

My top ranked 2016 Kentucky Derby contender contender Mohaymen tries to run his record to 5-for-5 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Feb 27.

Jarrod Horak's updated Kentucky Derby 2016 contenders list

Last Week at Santa Anita Park (Feb 11-15)

Santa Anita Park hosted a special 5-day holiday racing week ending with juvenile champ and Kentucky Derby 2016 contender Nyquist cruising in his much anticipated return on Monday, Feb 15. 

Thursday Santa Anita Park Recap: February 11

Fast main track and firm turf course. Early/pressing types dominated on dirt (2 wire jobs – 7f, 6.5f). Both downhill sprints were won in wire-to-wire fashion (turf rail at 10 feet).

No riding/training doubles on Thursday.

Friday Santa Anita Park Recap: February 12

Fast main track and firm turf course. Early/pressing types dominated on dirt (5 wire jobs – 8f, 6f, 7f, 6f, 8f). The lone turf race (downhill sprint) was won in wire-to-wire fashion (turf rail at 30 feet).

Four-bagger for Santiago Gonzalez. Steve Miyadi saddled two winners.

Saturday Santa Anita Park Recap: February 13

Fast main track and firm turf course (turf rail at 10 feet). Two wire-to-wire winners at six furlongs on dirt. Stalking types captures all three turf races (8f, 6.5f, 9f).

Hat trick for Flavien Prat. Edwin Maldonado booted home a pair. Phil D’Amato saddled two winners and Maldonado rode two. 

Sunday Santa Anita Park Recap: February 14 

Fast main track and firm turf course. Main track was much less speed favoring (1 wire job – 8.5f). Two patient runners (6.5f, 12f) and a downhill presser made up the three turf winners.

Kent Desormeaux booted home the early double.

Monday Santa Anita Park Recap: February 15 

Fast main track and firm turf course (turf rail at 20 feet). Four wire job winners on dirt (5.5f, 8.5f, 7f, 6f). Stalking types captured all three turf races (8f, 8f, 6.5f).

Tyler Baze and Rafael Bejarano both booted home a pair.

It was a very productive week at Pick6Blog.com with winning tickets on Thursday (Late Pick 4), and Saturday thru Monday (Daily Double/Early Pick 3). 

If you are interested in full card analysis, I am selling Santa Anita full cards each weekend at The Runaway Horse. You can check out full card recaps with highlights on our What You Missed page.

I also post free daily tickets from Santa Anita Park at Pick 6 Blog. You can also read my recaps at Pick 6 Blog.  

Santa Anita Park photos by Stacy Edwards.

Kentucky Derby 2016 prep race: G2 Risen Star Stakes featuring Airoforce (VIDEO)

The road to Kentucky Derby 2016 continues with the Grade II Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course on Saturday, February 20.


 

Kentucky Derby 2016 Prep Races: Southwest Stakes Video

The 2016 Southwest Stakes drew a large, competitive field, including G3 Sham winner Collected and the top three finishers from the Smarty Jones Stakes (Discreetness, Gordy Florida, Synchrony).

G2 Holy Bull Stakes analysis featuring Mohaymen, Conquest Big E, and Greenpointcrusader (VIDEO)

My Video Race of the Week is the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes from Gulfstream Park. Mohaymen, Greenpointcrusader, and Cobquest Big E are the favorites.