Check out my Queen's Plate 2018 handicapping video from Woodbine for Today's Racing Digest.
Friday, June 29, 2018
Friday, June 22, 2018
Saturday, June 16, 2018
Stephen Foster Handicap 2018 Video Analysis
Check out my video analysis of the 2018 Stephen Foster Handicap for Today's Racing Digest.
Saturday, June 9, 2018
Belmont Stakes 2018 Blog and Video
Justify has answered all of the questions after five career starts, and the 2018 Belmont Stakes figures to be his toughest test to date. Can he complete an improbable Triple Crown sweep, or will he be another in a long line of Belmont Park close calls and near misses?
BELMONT STAKES 2018 FIELD (in post position order, with comments)
Belmont Park Race 11 (6-9-18) - Post Time - 6:46pm ET
#1 - Justify (4-5) - The unbeaten Triple Crown hopeful owns descending numbers and might be over the top. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert know how to win the Belmont Stakes. His best chance is to control proceedings throughout, just like American Pharoah did in 2015.
#2 - Free Drop Billy (30-1) - Son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags is firing bullets for this and might show more speed than expected.
#3 - Bravazo (8-1) - Preakness runner-up is rounding back into form and is capable of turning the tables on Justify. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas has saddled four Belmont Stakes winners.
#4 - Hofburg (9-2) - Florida Derby runner-up found trouble in the 20-horse Derby stampede. He is lightly raced and appears to be sitting on a top effort. He has the best long distance pedigree, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Bill Mott have both won the Belmont Stakes before.
#5 - Restoring Hope (30-1) - Wood Memorial show finisher disliked the sloppy track in the Pat Day Mile. He is the other Baffert runner.
#6 - Gronkowski (12-1) - Got sick and missed the Kentucky Derby, and his new trainer Chad Brown chose this ambitious spot for his US bow. He is training well, and jockey Jose Ortiz guided home Tapwrit in the 2017 Belmont Stakes.
#7 - Tenfold (12-1) - Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing. He tries to give trainer Steve Asmussen his second Belmont Stakes winner (saddled 2016 Belmont hero Creator).
#8 - Vino Rosso (8-1) - Wood Memorial winner raced wide from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and the wet track did not help either. He can bounce back for John Velazquez (2 Belmont wins) and Todd Pletcher (3 Belmont Stakes wins).
#9 - Noble Indy (30-1) - He is the second entrant for Pletcher. He failed to show his customary early speed from post 19 in the Kentucky Derby. He was all over the pace in his game G2 LA Derby win, and he should be close up from the outset under Javier Castellano.
#10 - Blended Citizen (15-1) - G3 Peter Pan winner is the only entrant with Belmont Park experience, and two of his wins were at 9f. He is improving and should be rallying from off the pace. He he seems to be improving at the right time.
Written by Jarrod Horak (The Runaway Horse Founder and Handicapper)
Photo by Josh Chicorelli (The Runaway Horse Handicapper)
Video Editor: Stacy Edwards (The Runaway Horse Photographer/Video Editor)
BELMONT STAKES 2018 FIELD (in post position order, with comments)
Belmont Park Race 11 (6-9-18) - Post Time - 6:46pm ET
#1 - Justify (4-5) - The unbeaten Triple Crown hopeful owns descending numbers and might be over the top. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert know how to win the Belmont Stakes. His best chance is to control proceedings throughout, just like American Pharoah did in 2015.
#2 - Free Drop Billy (30-1) - Son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags is firing bullets for this and might show more speed than expected.
#3 - Bravazo (8-1) - Preakness runner-up is rounding back into form and is capable of turning the tables on Justify. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas has saddled four Belmont Stakes winners.
#4 - Hofburg (9-2) - Florida Derby runner-up found trouble in the 20-horse Derby stampede. He is lightly raced and appears to be sitting on a top effort. He has the best long distance pedigree, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Bill Mott have both won the Belmont Stakes before.
#5 - Restoring Hope (30-1) - Wood Memorial show finisher disliked the sloppy track in the Pat Day Mile. He is the other Baffert runner.
#6 - Gronkowski (12-1) - Got sick and missed the Kentucky Derby, and his new trainer Chad Brown chose this ambitious spot for his US bow. He is training well, and jockey Jose Ortiz guided home Tapwrit in the 2017 Belmont Stakes.
#7 - Tenfold (12-1) - Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing. He tries to give trainer Steve Asmussen his second Belmont Stakes winner (saddled 2016 Belmont hero Creator).
#8 - Vino Rosso (8-1) - Wood Memorial winner raced wide from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and the wet track did not help either. He can bounce back for John Velazquez (2 Belmont wins) and Todd Pletcher (3 Belmont Stakes wins).
#9 - Noble Indy (30-1) - He is the second entrant for Pletcher. He failed to show his customary early speed from post 19 in the Kentucky Derby. He was all over the pace in his game G2 LA Derby win, and he should be close up from the outset under Javier Castellano.
#10 - Blended Citizen (15-1) - G3 Peter Pan winner is the only entrant with Belmont Park experience, and two of his wins were at 9f. He is improving and should be rallying from off the pace. He he seems to be improving at the right time.
Written by Jarrod Horak (The Runaway Horse Founder and Handicapper)
Photo by Josh Chicorelli (The Runaway Horse Handicapper)
Video Editor: Stacy Edwards (The Runaway Horse Photographer/Video Editor)
Saturday, June 2, 2018
Belmont Stakes 2018 Blog and Video featuring Triple Crown hopeful Justify
Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Justify is one race away from sweeping the 2018 Triple Crown series for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith.
Bob Baffert had three runners win the Derby and Preakness before losing the Belmont Stakes (War Emblem, Silver Charm, Real Quiet). Point Given was his first Belmont Stakes winner in 2001, and American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown sweep with a front running victory in the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Veteran jockey Mike Smith used to be a regular on the New York circuit back in the day, and he has two Belmont Stakes wins to his credit (Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice).
With a bit more than a week to go, up to eleven horses are expected to try to spoil Justify’s Triple Crown party.
Belmont Stakes 2018 Probable Field (as of 6-1-18):
Bandua: His trainer Dermot Weld saddled 1990 Belmont Stakes winner Go and Go. As of this writing, his chances of shipping to New York are 50/50.
Blended Citizen: Doug O’Neill’s Peter Pan Stakes winner can seemingly run all day. The last Peter Pan winner to capture the Belmont Stakes was Tonalist in 2014.
Bravazo: The G2 Risen Star winner returned to form in a strong place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Wayne Lukas turned back the clock and worked the son of Awesome Again at flat mile at Churchill Downs earlier this week.
Free Drop Billy: Trainer Dale Romans says the longer the better for the son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags. Look for him to stalk the Belmont pace under Robby Albarado.
Gronkowski: He got sick and missed a scheduled start in the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown trains the overseas synthetic specialist now, and he had his first Belmont Stakes workout on May 26. He is expected to work one more time this weekend. His jockey Jose Ortiz won last year's Belmont aboard Tapwrit.
Hofburg: Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. guided Creator home in the 2016 Belmont Stakes. This lightly raced colt was 2nd in the Florida Derby and 7th in the Kentucky Derby in his last two starts.
Justify: The Triple Crown is clearly within reach for the unbeaten son of Scat Daddy. He fired a big half-mile bullet workout at Churchill Downs on May 29. Look for him to be on or near the lead with 2-3 furlongs to go, and that is where the litmus test begins.
Noble Indy: His trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners, and Jockey Javier Castellano is still searching for his first Belmont victory. The LA Derby hero was hung out to dry from post 19 on a wet track in the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, is training well, and should be forwardly placed on June 9.
Restoring Hope: Justify’s stablemate failed to handle the wet surface in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Before that, he landed the show in the Wood Memorial. Flavien Prat will ride the grinding type.
Seahenge: He won an overseas Group 2 event last year as a juvenile for Aidan O’Brien. In his last two starts, he was 5th in the UAE Derby and 7th in the Pat Day Mile.
Tenfold: The Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing for Steve Asmussen (saddled Belmont Stakes winner Creator in 2016). He will probably stalk the pace at Big Sandy.
Vino Rosso: The Wood Memorial winner had no shot from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and he ended up a respectable 9th on a wet track that day. His sire Curlin just missed in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, and his rider John Velazquez has two Belmont wins (Rags to Riches, Union Rags). As mentioned earlier, trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners.
Bob Baffert had three runners win the Derby and Preakness before losing the Belmont Stakes (War Emblem, Silver Charm, Real Quiet). Point Given was his first Belmont Stakes winner in 2001, and American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown sweep with a front running victory in the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Veteran jockey Mike Smith used to be a regular on the New York circuit back in the day, and he has two Belmont Stakes wins to his credit (Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice).
With a bit more than a week to go, up to eleven horses are expected to try to spoil Justify’s Triple Crown party.
Belmont Stakes 2018 Probable Field (as of 6-1-18):
Bandua: His trainer Dermot Weld saddled 1990 Belmont Stakes winner Go and Go. As of this writing, his chances of shipping to New York are 50/50.
Blended Citizen: Doug O’Neill’s Peter Pan Stakes winner can seemingly run all day. The last Peter Pan winner to capture the Belmont Stakes was Tonalist in 2014.
Bravazo: The G2 Risen Star winner returned to form in a strong place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Wayne Lukas turned back the clock and worked the son of Awesome Again at flat mile at Churchill Downs earlier this week.
Free Drop Billy: Trainer Dale Romans says the longer the better for the son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags. Look for him to stalk the Belmont pace under Robby Albarado.
Gronkowski: He got sick and missed a scheduled start in the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown trains the overseas synthetic specialist now, and he had his first Belmont Stakes workout on May 26. He is expected to work one more time this weekend. His jockey Jose Ortiz won last year's Belmont aboard Tapwrit.
Hofburg: Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. guided Creator home in the 2016 Belmont Stakes. This lightly raced colt was 2nd in the Florida Derby and 7th in the Kentucky Derby in his last two starts.
Justify: The Triple Crown is clearly within reach for the unbeaten son of Scat Daddy. He fired a big half-mile bullet workout at Churchill Downs on May 29. Look for him to be on or near the lead with 2-3 furlongs to go, and that is where the litmus test begins.
Noble Indy: His trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners, and Jockey Javier Castellano is still searching for his first Belmont victory. The LA Derby hero was hung out to dry from post 19 on a wet track in the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, is training well, and should be forwardly placed on June 9.
Restoring Hope: Justify’s stablemate failed to handle the wet surface in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Before that, he landed the show in the Wood Memorial. Flavien Prat will ride the grinding type.
Seahenge: He won an overseas Group 2 event last year as a juvenile for Aidan O’Brien. In his last two starts, he was 5th in the UAE Derby and 7th in the Pat Day Mile.
Tenfold: The Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing for Steve Asmussen (saddled Belmont Stakes winner Creator in 2016). He will probably stalk the pace at Big Sandy.
Vino Rosso: The Wood Memorial winner had no shot from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and he ended up a respectable 9th on a wet track that day. His sire Curlin just missed in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, and his rider John Velazquez has two Belmont wins (Rags to Riches, Union Rags). As mentioned earlier, trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners.
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