Saturday, September 15, 2018

First Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog

Kentucky Derby 2019 is right around the corner. Well, not quite, but we are well into the month of September and it is time to roll out my annual Derby contenders list. I am pleased to announce that I will once again be including Today’s Racing Digest data in each of my Derby blogs and videos.  



Eleven of the last eighteen Kentucky Derby winners graduated by October 4, including eight of the last twelve. Kentucky Derby 2012 hero I’ll Have Another captured his career debut at Hollywood Park on July 3 of his juvenile season.

Kentucky Derby 2013 winner Orb lost his first three juvenile outings. He graduated at the Big A on November 24, 2012, his first of five straight wins, culminating in an off the pace tally under the Twin Spires on May 4.

Kentucky Derby 2014 winner California Chrome earned his diploma in his second career start ($100k Graduation – 5.5f) at Del Mar on July 31, 2013. He ended his juvenile season with an easy win in the King Glorious, the beginning of a 6-race winning streak that ended with a dead-heat for 4th in the Belmont Stakes.

Triple Crown 2015 winner American Pharaoh graduated in the G1 Del Mar Futurity on 9-3-14, the beginning of an 8-race win streak (7 Grade 1‘s and a Grade 2).

Kentucky Derby 2016 winner Nyquist graduated on June 5, 2015 at Santa Anita Park, the start of an 8-race winning streak ending with a smart victory under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.  

Kentucky Derby 2017 winner Always Dreaming hit the board in his first two juvenile starts before graduating in his 3-year-old bow at Tampa Bay on January 25, 2017.

2018 Triple Crown hero Justify did not start his career until February of his 3-year-old campaign. 

Looking back, some of my initial September Derby blog juvenile contenders panned out, like my early 2010-2011 Number 1’s Stay Thirsty and Alpha. Both won the G1 Travers during their 3-year-old seasons. Others turn out to be disappointments like Fortify, Purple Sky, and Silver Assault, and others got hurt along the way like Mastery.

International Star was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2015 contender and he was scratched the morning of the Derby. Three of my original eleven Derby contenders made it to the starting gate that year including winner American Pharoah. The other two were Frosted and Carpe Diem.

Mohaymen was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2016 contender and the 4-time grade 2 winner (Nashua, Remsen, Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth) finished 4th on the first Saturday in May.

Four of my original “exceptional eleven” contenders made it to the starting gate in Derby 2018 (Good Magic, Solomini, Bolt d’Oro, Free Drop Billy). 

An ideal Kentucky Derby contender would have a solid juvenile foundation, a blended speed-stamina pedigree, sharp graded stakes form, tactical speed, and winning connections. Strong pre-Derby works are the icing on the cake.

The 2019 Derby points race series kicks off with the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs September 15, 2018. 

You can read the rest of this blog post at The Runaway Horse

Iroquois Stakes 2018 Video: Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race

Check out my G3 Iroquois Stakes video from Churchill Downs for Today's Racing Digest.