Lecomte Stakes 2024 Video Picks: Kentucky Derby Points Race Video Series

This horse racing video features analysis of the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on 1-20-24. 

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2024 articles at Today's Racing Digest. 

Lecomte Stakes 2024 Analysis: Kentucky Derby Points Race

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 continues at Fair Grounds on Saturday, January 20, and I have included Lecomte Stakes 2024 picks below. The Grade 3 event for 3-year-olds has a $200,000 purse and the eight entrants will be journeying 1 1/16 on the main track. The Lecomte is the 13th race on Jan. 20 and the top five finishers will earn Kentucky Derby points (20-10-6-4-2). 

Lecomte Stakes 2024 Picks & Final Time Ratings

Nash may have bounced in the Gun Runner Stakes after running a hole in the wind in his dirt route maiden win at Churchill Downs on Nov. 12. He was best of the rest in 3rd in the aforementioned Gun Runner but he definitely underperformed that day. He sat a decent stalking trip behind contested fractions but could not make an impact in the lane. He has worked twice since his last start and might rebound in a big way.  

Can Group fits on class and numbers, but surface might be an issue. He landed the show in back-to-back dirt sprints at Ellis Park to begin his career, and he was never threatening the top finishers in those races. The Good Samaritan colt switched to turf and earned his diploma from off the pace in a seven panel sprint at Kentucky Downs in his third start. He stretched out and made the grade in the Bourbon (G2) at 1 1/16 miles on turf, and exits an even 4th in the BC Juvenile Turf. Mark Casse is giving him a shot to succeed on the Derby trail, and he can always go back to turf if this experiment fails. He will try to get involved from off the pace.  

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Gun Runner Stakes 2023 Analysis

 

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 continues at Fair Grounds on Saturday, December 23, and I have included Gun Runner Stakes 2023 picks below. The non-graded event for 2-year-olds has a $100,000 purse and the eight entrants will be traveling 1 1/16 miles on the main track. It is the 12th race on Dec. 23 and the top five finishers will earn Kentucky Derby points (10-5-3-2-1). 

Gun Runner Stakes 2023 Picks & Final Time Ratings

Catching Freedom rallied to win his flat mile debut as the favorite under the Twin Spires on Oct. 1. He was the favorite again in an optional-claiming route at that same venue on Nov. 9, and he rallied mildly to finish 4th of 10. Brad Cox’s $575k Constitution colt will try to get involved from off the pace. 

Risk it wired the field as the favorite in his six panel debut at Saratoga. I made him my top choice in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes on Sept. 16, and he stalked the pace and landed the place. He split an 8-horse field in a flat effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) last time. Joel Rosario hops aboard the $500k son of Gun Runner, and he is the first of two entrants for trainer Steve Asmussen. 

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Kentucky Derby 2024 Top Ranked Contenders

 

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 is in full swing. Eight points races have been run so far and it is time to unveil my first “Exceptional 11” Kentucky Derby contenders list. First, I will recap the points race action from the Iroquois on Sept. 16 through the Remsen on Dec. 2. 

Kentucky Derby 2024 Points Race Results

Grade 3 Iroquois – Sept. 16 (Churchill Downs)

The first Derby points race is rarely an indicator of Derby trail success. West Saratoga sat the right stalking trip and outkicked my top choice Risk It to score by 1 3/4 lengths. Liberal Arts rallied for the show and was followed by Seize the Grey, Edified, Patriot Spirit, Union Roll, and Market Street. Gettysburg Address scratched. The final time was 1:37.28 and Rafael Bejarano rode the winner for Larry Demeritte. 

Grade 1 Champagne – Oct. 7 (Aqueduct)

The track was sloppy (sealed), and I went with impressive maiden winner Fierceness, but he blew the break, moved early, and weakened in a disappointing try. Timberlake was clearly best in this race. I picked him on top in the Grade 1 Hopeful and he finished an uncomfortable 2nd that day. He got a clean outside stalking trip in this spot and dominated by 4 1/4 lengths. General Partner controlled the pace and was clearly second best, and Dancing Groom rallied from last to pick up the show. Gold Sweep, Air Cav, El Grande O, Fierceness, and Sweet Soddy J also ran. The final time was 1:35.90 and Florent Geroux guided home the winner for Brad Cox. 

Grade 1 American Pharoah – Oct. 7 (Santa Anita)

A Baffert trainee figured to set the pace, but almost everyone thought Muth was that runner. No so fast. Wine Me Up set sail for the lead under Ramon Vazquez. Heavy favorite Muth was showing 21 and change speed in sprints, and it was nice to see him relax early while stalking the pace under Juan Hernandez. Wine Me Up carved out splits of 23.30, 46.49, and 1:10.22. Raging Torrent chased from second and El Magnifico was forwardly placed from the outside post, but he was getting out on the backside under Hector Berrios, and he readily backed up. Muth saved ground stalking the pace and Todd Pletcher’s maiden shipper Be You was in a good spot in midpack. Next Level lost all chance after stumbling badly at the start. Wine Me Up was up by a half-length for the opening half mile and got clear by a length and a half after six panels. Muth was always traveling smoothly and as soon as he found some running room, he moved out, came after his stablemate, and kicked away to win by 3 3/4 lengths in a strong performance. Wine Me Up was 5 1/4 lengths in front of clear show finisher Be You. Raging Torrent was another 6 1/4 lengths in front of Rothschild. Indespensable, Next Level, and El Magnifico completed the order of finish. The final time was 1:42.45 and Muth qualified for the BC Juvenile with this victory.

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