Friday, December 22, 2017

Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Los Alamitos Futurity & Remington Springboard Mile Recap

The Remington Springboard Mile at Remington Park was the marquee Kentucky Derby 2018 prep race last week and Southern California shipper Greyvitos scored decisively from the outside post. 



Greyvitos stalked wide, pounced, and scored by 2-1/4 lengths over $320k purchase Combatant. The latter saved ground from the inside post, swung out, and was clearly second best. He was exiting a smart maiden win under the Twin Spires and should continue to develop for Asmussen.

Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity Recap (12-9-17)

The Los Al Futurity had a thrilling stretch battle but the drama was just beginning after Solomini crossed the line on top. The winner was ultimately disqualified and placed 3rd for interfering with clear show finisher Instilled Regard. Solomini’s stablemate and strong favorite McKinzie was placed first. As for the minor interference, Solomini should not have been taken down. He was the best horse and the top three finishers all seemed to contribute to the bumping.  

There is a bit of movement on the list this week. Montauk drops out due to inactivity. He looked great graduating on Oct 7 but has no published workouts since. He is currently in Florida but at this rate I cannot see him running again before February or March 2018. 

Also, Greyvitos takes over Nero’s spot on the bottom of the list. The latter debuted at Del Mar on Aug 27. In that race, he dueled, opened up, and was caught on the line by subsequent Speakeasy Stakes winner Beautiful Shot. He returned to the worktab on Oct 4 and has worked from the gate five times since Oct 27. There will be one more update at the end of the year.   

McKinzie capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders

(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)

Comments: He improved his Today’s Racing Digest numbers in his first three starts (all wins) including back-to-back grade one wins in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner. He experienced a very wide trip from an outer post in the the BC Juvenile and ended up a good 3rd considering the lost ground. He deserves the Eclipse Award for top juvenile in the land, and has always been my number one ranked Derby contender. He has been training daily (should return to work tab soon), and might return in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Feb 10.     

Derby Points (14)

(2) GOOD MAGIC  (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Comments: I thought he ran the best race (finished 2nd) in the G1 Champagne, and his Today’s Racing Digest numbers went through the roof in a visually impressive score in the BC Juvenile. He has been part of my Derby list all along, and following a training stint at Stonestreet Farm in Ocala, he was expected to head to Palm Meadows to join the rest of Brown’s Florida string the week of Dec 18.     

Derby Points (24)  

(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up crossed the line first in the G1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity but was disqualified and placed 3rd. Let there be no doubt that he was best at Los Al, and it was nice to see him relax and finish strong. His next start is undecided.    

Derby Points (14)

(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)

Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :47.60 (1/41) at Santa Anita Park on Dec 21. 

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Los Al Futurity, LRC, 12-9-17) 

Comments: In his seven furlong debut at Santa Anita on Oct 28, he stalked outside, took the lead in the stretch, and pulled away to win by 5+ lengths in 1:22.70 (131 Final Rating). He was the strong favorite in the CashCall Futurity and was fortunate to be placed first via disqualification (stablemate Solomini demoted to 3rd). He is lightly raced and might look much improved next time in his second start around two turns.      

Derby Points (10)

(5) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)

Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)

Comments: Followed up a romping extended sprint victory at Churchill Downs on Nov 10 with an even more impressive two turn allowance score at Fair Grounds on Dec 16. The sky is the limit for this one, and look for him to show up in a Kentucky Derby prep race in the near future. The Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on Jan 13 would be a realistic spot for his stakes debut.  

(6) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Iroquois Stakes, CD, 9-16-17)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing)  

Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Iorquois. His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings improved in each of his first three starts, and he broke from post 12 and rallied from last to split the field in the BC Juvenile. Romans says that he has yet to put everything together in the morning and afternoon, and he has every right to improve as a 3-year-old. He has recently returned to training in South Florida, and should be back on the work tab in the near future.     

Derby Points (4)

(7) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)

Comments: He stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns with ease in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on Oct 7. He made a bit of a middle move in the BC Juvenile but was basically done after six furlongs in a very disappointing performance (9th of 12). He enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign and is currently jogging at Gulfstream Park.

Derby Points (10)

(8) FIRENZE FIRE  (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)

Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.65 (7.18) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Dec 18. 

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Champagne Stakes, BEL, 10-7-17)

Comments: Grade 3 Sanford (132 Final) and Grade 1 Champagne winner made a bit of a middle move before flattening out to finish 7th in the BC Juvenile. He returned to the work tab in New York on Dec 18, and the upcoming Derby prep races at Aqueduct make sense.  

Derby Points (10) 

(9) SHIVERMETIMBERS (Shanghai Bobby - Sealaunch, by Unbridled’s Song)

Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (Mark DeDomenico, West Point Thoroughbreds)

Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:13 (1/21) at Santa Anita on Dec 21.

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 125 (MSW, DMR, 11-23-17)

Comments: Finished 3rd in his first two outings (McKinzie beat him Oct 28), and he dueled from start to finish and nipped outside stalker Peace by a head in a flat mile maiden race at Del Mar on Nov 23. The top two finishers were 8+ lengths in front of troubled show finisher He’s Stylish. He is expected to make his stakes debut in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6.   

(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)

Latest Workout: 4f in :50.04 (12/26) at Palm Beach Downs on Dec 22. 

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (MSW, GP, 12-3-17)

Comments: He made his career debut at Gulfstream Park on Dec 3, and in that seven panel affair, he went straight to the front and cruised home by 8+ lengths. He has been nominated to the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan 6, but Pletcher is hoping to find an allowance race.    

(11) GREYVITOS (Malibu Moon - Snow Top Mountain, by Najran)

Trainer (Adam Kitchingman) - Owner (Triple B Farms)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Springboard Mile, RP, 12-17-17)

Comments: Lost his first two starts but did improve in a dirt sprint at Santa Anita Oct 21. He added blinkers and went all the way in a 19-1 upset in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar Nov 11, and followed that up with a smart stalk/pounce win from post 12 in the Remington Springboard Mile. He will get a short break before returning to the work tab in mid-January. His next start in undecided, according to trainer Adam Kitchingman.    

Derby Points (10)
        
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Catholic Boy, (13) Montauk, (14) Nero, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Analyze It, (17) Enticed, (18) Vision, (19) Instilled Regard, (20) Peace

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Friday, October 20, 2017

Raven Run Stakes 2017 video with Classy Tune, Miss Sunset, and Chalon

Check out my Raven Run 2017 video from Keeneland for Today's Racing Digest

Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders Video with Bolt d'Oro, Free Drop Billy, and Firenze Fire

Check out my latest Kentucky Derby 2018 contenders video featuring Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite Bolt d'Oro.


Kentucky Derby 2018 Blog featuring Bolt d'Oro and Free Drop Billy


Bolt d’Oro exceeded all expectations and easily remains on top of my Kentucky Derby 2018 list following an authoritative victory in the G1 FrontRunner at Santa Anita. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite is a perfect 3-for-3 and his running style versatility makes him a dangerous contender in a variety of pace situations.



My second ranked Derby contender Free Drop Billy also holds his position this week following a sharp win in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct 7. Romans has the BC Juvenile on his dance card, along with Iroquois runner-up Hollywood Story.

Solomini moves up a notch after a solid 2nd in the FrontRunner and Good Magicmoves up from 6th to 4th following his clear place finish in the G1 Champagne.

In other juvenile news, promising Baffert trainee Nero got back on the worktab with a 4f move (:48.20) at SA on Oct 4 and worked again on Oct 11 (4f in :49.20) He was 2nd in his DMR bow Aug 27 (111 Final) and is bred to handle a route of ground. His highly regarded stablemate St. Patrick’s Day (American Pharoah’s brother) is getting some time off because Baffert believes that he is “a bit immature.” Baffert also unveiled promising debut winner Mourinho at SA Sept 30 (125 Final) and he is entered in the Speakeasy Stakes on Oct. 15. Baffert was not done and finished the holiday weekend with first time out winner Talent Scout on Oct 9.

Tiz Mischief looked good graduating in his third lifetime start at KEE for Dale Romans on Oct 7. He rallied from 10th to score by a length at 8.5f and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is next. Breeders’ Futurity runner-up Bravazo is also targeting the Ky Jockey Club for Wayne Lukas.

Ellis Park Juvenile hero Dak Attack has gone to the sidelines with sore shins. If he recovers in time, the Remington Springboard Mile on Dec. 17 could be a late season option. Hopeful winner Sporting Chance also has a case of sore shins.  

Tatters to Riches, an original member of my Derby list, recently had hind ankle surgery to remove a bone chip. His recovery is expected to take four months and Mullins hopes to have him back in his barn early next year.  

Jungle Warfare stretched out and finished a disappointing, distant 2nd behind a runaway winner at SA Sept 29. He is now 0-for-4 with four minor awards and has not progressed as expected so he drops off the bottom of my list.    

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders

(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)

Comments: He improved his Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings (140, 132, 128) + CPR Ratings (141, 126, 120) in all three starts and the versatile, undefeated colt stalked Take the One O One and ran away from his eight opponents in the G1 FrontRunner (1st by 7+ lengths) on Sept 30. He can wrap up the 2-year-old title with a win in the BC Juvenile.     

Derby Points (10)

(2) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)

Comments: His TRD Final Ratings are on the rise (140, 138, 129, 126) and he stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns as expected in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on Oct 7. He will probably be the second betting choice behind Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile.

Derby Points (10)

(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)

Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :47.80 (1/19) at Santa Anita on Oct 10.

Comments: Looked good beating Bahamian as the even money favorite in his DMR debut Sept 2 (132 Final). He entered the G1 FrontRuner with only one sprint under his belt and was clearly second best (116 Final) after racing four wide into the first turn from an outer post and stalking outside for much of the running. The BC Juvenile is next.  

Derby Points (4)

(4) GOOD MAGIC  (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)

Comments: Still a maiden after landing the place in his first two outings. All of his TRD numbers jumped up in the G1 Champagne (138 Final Rating). Firenze Fire rallied from 10th to beat him by a 1/2 length in the Champagne but he ran a winning race was clearly second best in a fine effort.  

Derby Points (4)   

(5) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing)  

Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01 (12/55) at Churchill on Oct 7.  

Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 (120 Final) with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special (123 Final) and G3 Iorquois (134 Final). His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings also improved in each of his three starts and the Romans trainee is preparing for the BC Juvenile (Joel Rosario will ride).   

Derby Points (4)

(6) MONTAUK  (Medaglia d’Oro - Indian Vale, by A. P. Indy)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (LaPenta, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables)

Comments: The even money chalk made a smashing debut on the Champagne Stakes undercard in the 6th race on Oct 7 (155 Pace + 141 Final). In his aforementioned seven panel bow, he stalked from post 10 after a 1/4, moved up to dispute the pace after a 1/2, and keep pulling away to win by 11+ lengths while in hand under Johnny V. The smart move would be to skip the BC Juvenile and target Aqueduct’s G2 Nashua on Nov 5 and the G2 Remsen on Dec 2.  

(7) FIRENZE FIRE  (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)

Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)

Comments: 3-for-4 freshman campaign includes wins in the G3 Sanford (132 Final) and G1 Champagne (140 Final). In the Champagne, he closed from 10th to win by a 1/2 length (Good Magic 2nd) and the top two were three lengths clear of the rest. He has a sprint oriented pedigree so I am not sure how far he wants to go in the long run.  

Derby Points (10)

(8) ZATTER (Midnight Lute - Katori, by Dixie Union)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)

Comments: Beat stablemate St. Patrick’s Day at DMR Aug 20 (140 Pace + 132 Final) and the latter flattered him with a maiden win of his own Sept 2. In the G1 Del Mar Futurity, he attended the pace outside, gained the lead while inching away in midstretch, and was run down by Bolt d’Oro while clearly second best. He saved ground stalking the pace in the FrontRunner but had nothing to offer in the lane and finished a well-beaten 5th in a disappointing effort. He might have distance limitations.     

(9) HAZIT (War Front - Rumor, by Indian Charlie)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners)

Comments: Went straight to the front and gamely held off strong favorite Good Magic (clear 2nd - Chad Brown) in his Saratoga debut Aug 26 (131 Final). He chased quick fractions (wide) and ended up 5th of 12 in the Champagne. He has only started twice and still has upside.    

(10) HONORABLE TREASURE ( To Honor and Serve - Tempest Treasure, by Dixie Union)

Trainer (Ken McPeek) - Owner (Harold Lerner LLC, AWC Stables, Akman, Scott K. and Nehoc Stables)

Comments: Ended up a fading 5th of 7 in his turf route bow at the Spa July 22 (104 Final) and winner Untamed Domain recently won the G2 Summer Stakes at WO. In his second start at seven panels on dirt (also Saratoga), he stalked and pounced from the outside post and cruised home by 6+ lengths (134 Final). In his most recent start in the Champagne Stakes, he disputed the pace and weakened to finish 6th of 12.       

(11) BAHAMIAN (Freedom Child - Final Humor, by Distorted Humor)

Trainer (Simon Callaghan) - Owner (Reddam Racing)

Comments: Was edged for 3rd in his July 22 bow at DMR (104 Final) and was clearly second best behind promising Baffert trainee Solomini at that same venue Sept 2 (126 Final, blinkers off). Everything went out the window after he stumbled at the start, spotting the field 5+ lengths in the Champagne. He passed a trio of tired rivals and ended up 9th in an inconclusive effort.     

THE NEXT NINE: (12) Nero, (13) Mourinho, (14) Talent Scout, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Bravazo, (17) Enticed, (18) Dak Attack, (19) St. Patrick’s Day, (20) The Tabulator