Friday, December 22, 2017

Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Los Alamitos Futurity & Remington Springboard Mile Recap

The Remington Springboard Mile at Remington Park was the marquee Kentucky Derby 2018 prep race last week and Southern California shipper Greyvitos scored decisively from the outside post. 



Greyvitos stalked wide, pounced, and scored by 2-1/4 lengths over $320k purchase Combatant. The latter saved ground from the inside post, swung out, and was clearly second best. He was exiting a smart maiden win under the Twin Spires and should continue to develop for Asmussen.

Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity Recap (12-9-17)

The Los Al Futurity had a thrilling stretch battle but the drama was just beginning after Solomini crossed the line on top. The winner was ultimately disqualified and placed 3rd for interfering with clear show finisher Instilled Regard. Solomini’s stablemate and strong favorite McKinzie was placed first. As for the minor interference, Solomini should not have been taken down. He was the best horse and the top three finishers all seemed to contribute to the bumping.  

There is a bit of movement on the list this week. Montauk drops out due to inactivity. He looked great graduating on Oct 7 but has no published workouts since. He is currently in Florida but at this rate I cannot see him running again before February or March 2018. 

Also, Greyvitos takes over Nero’s spot on the bottom of the list. The latter debuted at Del Mar on Aug 27. In that race, he dueled, opened up, and was caught on the line by subsequent Speakeasy Stakes winner Beautiful Shot. He returned to the worktab on Oct 4 and has worked from the gate five times since Oct 27. There will be one more update at the end of the year.   

McKinzie capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders

(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)

Comments: He improved his Today’s Racing Digest numbers in his first three starts (all wins) including back-to-back grade one wins in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner. He experienced a very wide trip from an outer post in the the BC Juvenile and ended up a good 3rd considering the lost ground. He deserves the Eclipse Award for top juvenile in the land, and has always been my number one ranked Derby contender. He has been training daily (should return to work tab soon), and might return in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Feb 10.     

Derby Points (14)

(2) GOOD MAGIC  (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Comments: I thought he ran the best race (finished 2nd) in the G1 Champagne, and his Today’s Racing Digest numbers went through the roof in a visually impressive score in the BC Juvenile. He has been part of my Derby list all along, and following a training stint at Stonestreet Farm in Ocala, he was expected to head to Palm Meadows to join the rest of Brown’s Florida string the week of Dec 18.     

Derby Points (24)  

(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up crossed the line first in the G1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity but was disqualified and placed 3rd. Let there be no doubt that he was best at Los Al, and it was nice to see him relax and finish strong. His next start is undecided.    

Derby Points (14)

(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)

Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :47.60 (1/41) at Santa Anita Park on Dec 21. 

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Los Al Futurity, LRC, 12-9-17) 

Comments: In his seven furlong debut at Santa Anita on Oct 28, he stalked outside, took the lead in the stretch, and pulled away to win by 5+ lengths in 1:22.70 (131 Final Rating). He was the strong favorite in the CashCall Futurity and was fortunate to be placed first via disqualification (stablemate Solomini demoted to 3rd). He is lightly raced and might look much improved next time in his second start around two turns.      

Derby Points (10)

(5) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)

Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)

Comments: Followed up a romping extended sprint victory at Churchill Downs on Nov 10 with an even more impressive two turn allowance score at Fair Grounds on Dec 16. The sky is the limit for this one, and look for him to show up in a Kentucky Derby prep race in the near future. The Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on Jan 13 would be a realistic spot for his stakes debut.  

(6) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Iroquois Stakes, CD, 9-16-17)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing)  

Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Iorquois. His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings improved in each of his first three starts, and he broke from post 12 and rallied from last to split the field in the BC Juvenile. Romans says that he has yet to put everything together in the morning and afternoon, and he has every right to improve as a 3-year-old. He has recently returned to training in South Florida, and should be back on the work tab in the near future.     

Derby Points (4)

(7) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)

Comments: He stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns with ease in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on Oct 7. He made a bit of a middle move in the BC Juvenile but was basically done after six furlongs in a very disappointing performance (9th of 12). He enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign and is currently jogging at Gulfstream Park.

Derby Points (10)

(8) FIRENZE FIRE  (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)

Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.65 (7.18) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Dec 18. 

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Champagne Stakes, BEL, 10-7-17)

Comments: Grade 3 Sanford (132 Final) and Grade 1 Champagne winner made a bit of a middle move before flattening out to finish 7th in the BC Juvenile. He returned to the work tab in New York on Dec 18, and the upcoming Derby prep races at Aqueduct make sense.  

Derby Points (10) 

(9) SHIVERMETIMBERS (Shanghai Bobby - Sealaunch, by Unbridled’s Song)

Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (Mark DeDomenico, West Point Thoroughbreds)

Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:13 (1/21) at Santa Anita on Dec 21.

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 125 (MSW, DMR, 11-23-17)

Comments: Finished 3rd in his first two outings (McKinzie beat him Oct 28), and he dueled from start to finish and nipped outside stalker Peace by a head in a flat mile maiden race at Del Mar on Nov 23. The top two finishers were 8+ lengths in front of troubled show finisher He’s Stylish. He is expected to make his stakes debut in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6.   

(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)

Latest Workout: 4f in :50.04 (12/26) at Palm Beach Downs on Dec 22. 

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (MSW, GP, 12-3-17)

Comments: He made his career debut at Gulfstream Park on Dec 3, and in that seven panel affair, he went straight to the front and cruised home by 8+ lengths. He has been nominated to the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan 6, but Pletcher is hoping to find an allowance race.    

(11) GREYVITOS (Malibu Moon - Snow Top Mountain, by Najran)

Trainer (Adam Kitchingman) - Owner (Triple B Farms)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Springboard Mile, RP, 12-17-17)

Comments: Lost his first two starts but did improve in a dirt sprint at Santa Anita Oct 21. He added blinkers and went all the way in a 19-1 upset in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar Nov 11, and followed that up with a smart stalk/pounce win from post 12 in the Remington Springboard Mile. He will get a short break before returning to the work tab in mid-January. His next start in undecided, according to trainer Adam Kitchingman.    

Derby Points (10)
        
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Catholic Boy, (13) Montauk, (14) Nero, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Analyze It, (17) Enticed, (18) Vision, (19) Instilled Regard, (20) Peace