Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Good Magic Back to Work in Florida

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile 2017 winner Good Magic, one of the favorites for Kentucky Derby 2018, had his first work of the year for trainer Chad Brown. He fired a three furlong bullet at Palm Meadows on Sunday, Jan. 21. It was the best of ten moves at the distance. 



Good Magic figures to have one published workout each week before his first 2018 target, the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 3. 

Last week, there were a trio of Kentucky Derby points races, and I had ranked contenders in two of those heats. Let’s go to the scoreboard for a recap:

Jerome Stakes Recap (1-13-18, 153 Final Rating)

My ninth ranked Derby contender, Firenze Fire, overcame a layoff, disrupted training schedule due to extreme weather conditions, wet track, and a lack of pace to gamely run down front runner Seven Trumpets in the rescheduled Jerome at Aqueduct on Jan. 13. I do not know if he is a legit Derby contender, and all four of his wins have been around one turn, but he is a decent colt. There is still a long way to go on the Derby trail, and these January preps may not mean much when all is said and done. 

Lecomte Stakes Recap (1-13-18, 135 Final Rating)

Southern California shipper Instilled Regard sat a nice outside stalking trip and kicked home an easy 3+ length winner over post time favorite Principe Guilherme, who finished a neck in front of prominent throughout stablemate Snapper Sinclair. The winner was exiting the Los Al Futurity and is the second horse to exit that race and capture a graded event. McKinzie took the G3 Sham after he was placed first via disqualification in the Los Al showcase. 

Smarty Jones Stakes Recap (1-15-18, 168 Final Rating)

The Oaklawn Park Kentucky Derby trail got underway on Jan. 15 with the Smarty Jones Stakes, and Mourinho controlled proceedings throughout as expected. The Bob Baffert trainee easily bested Remington Springboard Mile runner-up Combatant, and the other three entrants were far behind the top two. Mourinho will have to prove that he can handle distances beyond a mile in a truly run stakes routes in the near future, and he might knock heads with Combatant again in the Southwest Stakes. We did not learn much in this paceless 5-horse field. 

In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Peace (5f in 1:00.80) and Shivermetimbers (5f in 1:01.20) both worked five panels at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 21. They are both targeting the Robert Lewis Stakes on Feb. 3 at the Great Race Place. 

Instilled Regard and Shivermetimbers are not the only horses on the Derby trail for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Choo Choo captured the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields for the veteran conditioner on Jan. 20. The El Camino Real Derby on Feb. 17 at Golden Gate is his next stop, and it is a Kentucky Derby points race.

Kiaran McLaughlin has two horses on the Derby trail, and both are working in Florida. G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes hero Enticed breezed 5f in 1:01 at Palm Meadows on Jan. 19, and G2 Remsen runner-up Avery Island went the same distance in 1:00.75 on Jan. 20.

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes runner-up Tiz Mischief is back to work in Florida for Dale Romans. He traveled 5f in :59.80 at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13, and he breezed the same distance in a bullet :59.86 on Jan. 20.

Navistar could not get a plane to Oaklawn Park for the Smarty Jones Stakes, so he had to scratch out of that event. He worked 5f in 1:02.07 at Palm Beach Downs on Jan. 15, and 5f in 1:03.19 at that same venue on Jan. 21.

McKinzie had his first work since his win in the G3 Sham on Jan. 6. He traveled an easy half-mile in 49 seconds at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 21. His next start is undetermined.

Good Magic capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders

(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)

Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included grade one tallies in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes. In his final 2-year-old start, he experienced a very wide trip from an outer post in the the BC Juvenile and ended up a respectable 3rd considering the lost ground. He deserves the Eclipse Award for top juvenile in the land, and he has always been my number one ranked Derby contender. He was originally slated to return in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Feb 10, but a muscle pull altered those plans. He is now expected to have two Kentucky Derby preps, beginning with the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 10, followed by the Santa Anita Derby. He is currently galloping in Southern California and should return to the work tab in the near future.       

Derby Points (14)

(2) GOOD MAGIC  (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Latest Workout: 3f bullet in :36.95 (1/10) at Palm Meadows on Jan 21.

Comments: He ran the best overall race in his place finish in the G1 Champagne, and his Today’s Racing Digest numbers went through the roof in a visually impressive score in the BC Juvenile. He has been part of my Derby list all along, and following a training stint at Stonestreet Farm in Ocala, he headed to Palm Meadows to join the rest of Brown’s Florida string in mid-December. He returned to the work tab with a three furlong bullet on Jan. 21, and figures to begin his 3-year-old campaign in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 3.     

Derby Points (24) 

(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (19/36) at Santa Anita Park on Dec 28.

Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up crossed the line first in the G1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (137 Final Rating) but was disqualified and placed 3rd. He was clearly best at Los Al and it was nice to see him relax and finish strong. McKinzie exited that heat to win the G3 Sham on Jan. 6, and Instilled Regard came out of that race to capture the G3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on Jan. 13. He recently got sick and has yet to work this year. At this point, it looks as though he will have two Derby preps, and they will most likely occur at Oaklawn Park and/or Santa Anita Park.   

Derby Points (14)

(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18) 

Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (45/87) at Santa Anita Park on Jan 21.

Comments: He is technically 3-for-3 (placed first via DQ in Los Al Futurity), but let there be no doubt that his stablemate Solomini was best at Los Alamitos Race Course on 12-9-17. He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6. He is expected to race two more times at Oaklawn Park (Rebel, Arkansas Derby) and/or Santa Anita (San Felipe, SA Derby) prior to the first Saturday in May.     
Derby Points (20)

(5) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)

Comments: He made his career debut at Gulfstream Park on Dec 3, and in that seven panel affair, he went straight to the front and cruised home by 8+ lengths. He returned in an entry level allowance route at Gulfstream on Thursday, January 11, and in that exciting event, he hooked up with promising Mark Casse runner Mississippi from start to finish. John Velazquez confidently handled Noble Indy through the stretch and he gamely prevailed by 3/4ths of a length. Mississippi was 6+ lengths clear of the show, and the final time was 1:42.52. He is on the upswing for Pletcher and appears ready for stakes company.   

(6) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)

Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)

Comments: Romped in his first two starts including an impressive two turn allowance score at Fair Grounds on Dec 16. He went off as the favorite in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, January 13, and ended up a grinding 2nd (123 Final Rating) after a wide trip from an outer post. He will have to run faster in his next Derby prep, which will probably come in the Grade 2 Risen Star in New Orleans on Feb. 19. 

Derby Points (4)

(7) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Iroquois Stakes, CD, 9-16-17)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.25 (2/40) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 20.

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing) 

Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Iorquois. His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings improved in each of his first three starts, and the Romans trainee broke from post 12 and rallied from last to split the field in the BC Juvenile. Romans says that he has yet to put everything together in the morning and afternoon, and he has every right to improve as a 3-year-old. He has returned to training in South Florida, and had his first work of the year on Jan. 6.   

Derby Points (4)

(8) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.04 (11/40) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 20.

Comments: He stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns with ease in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on October 7. He made a bit of a middle move in the BC Juvenile but was basically done after six furlongs in a very disappointing performance (9th of 12). He enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign and returned to work at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6.

Derby Points (10)

(9) FIRENZE FIRE  (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)

Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Jerome Stakes, AQU, 1-13-18)

Comments: He captured the G3 Sanford and G1 Champagne (140 Final Rating) as a juvenile before finishing a flat 7th in the BC Juvenile. He finally was able to make his sophomore debut in the rescheduled Jerome at Aqueduct on Saturday, Jan. 13, and he overcame a layoff, lack of pace, and a wet track to run down lone speed Seven Trumpets. The 3-time stakes winner obviously has ability but all four of his wins were around one turn, and stamina continues to be the main question. The Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10 might be next.   

Derby Points (20)

(10) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)

Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17) 

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.20 (3/6) at Bridlewood Farm on Jan. 12.

Comments: Won 3 of his 4 juvenile outings including a smart surface switching tally in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and could make his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. The Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 17 is also an option if he needs another week.

Derby Points (10)

(11) MASK (Tapit - Hidden Expression, by Yonaguska)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (Lane’s End Racing)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 152 (Mucho Macho Man Stakes, GP, 1-6-18)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.75 (41/82) at Palm Meadows on Jan. 20.

Comments: Chad Brown’s $685,000 purchase easily won his sprint debut at Belmont Park on 10-20-17, and was on cruise control throughout in an effortless wire job win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes (one-turn mile) at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6. The Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 17 might be his next assignment. 
       
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Instilled Regard, (13) Enticed, (14) Tiz Mischief, (15) Mississippi, (16) Combatant, (17) Avery Island, (18) Peace, (19) Mourinho, (20) Navistar


Friday, January 19, 2018

Sunshine Millions Video Play from Gulfstream Park

Check out my video analysis of the Sunshine Millions F&M Turf from Gulfstream Park for Today's Racing Digest. For a free Gulfstream Park download including Sunshine Millions stakes analysis, text racing to 33444

Saturday, January 13, 2018

Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: McKinzie looks good in Sham Stakes victory

McKinzie ran his record to 3-for-3 and picked up ten more Kentucky Derby 2018 points in a strong off the pace victory in the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park on January 6. 

The highly regarded McKinzie removed blinkers in the Sham for trainer Bob Baffert and relaxed early and finished up nicely in the one mile affair under jockey Mike Smith. There was probably not much behind him but he looked good winning and improved in his second route try. 



At Gulfstream Park on January 6, Mask returned from a layoff for Chad Brown and made all of the running in a very easy tally in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes. He trounced a couple of solid runners, Bal Harbour (Todd Pletcher) and Dak Attack(Dale Romans).  

Jerome Stakes

My ninth ranked Derby contender, Firenze Fire, gets back in action in the rescheduled Jerome at Aqeuduct on Jan. 13, and he is the 3-5 morning line favorite. The Jerome was originally slated to go on Jan. 1, but extreme weather conditions forced the race to be canceled. 

Lecomte Stakes

My fifth ranked Derby contender, Principe Guilherme, drew post 12 and was made the 5-2 morning line favorite in the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on January 13. He will meet, among others, Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up Instilled Regard. McKinzie has already come out of the Los Al Futurity to capture the aforementioned Sham Stakes. 

Smarty Jones Stakes 

The Oaklawn Park Kentucky Derby trail gets underway on Jan. 15 with the Smarty Jones Stakes. The one mile contest drew a field of seven headed by the speedy Mourinho from the Bob Baffert barn. Navistar for Todd Pletcher and Combatant for Steve Asmussen also deserve respect.  

In other Derby contender news, Shivermetimbers faded to 4th in the G3 Sham and drops off my list. He appears to have distance limitations. Greyvitos recently underwent minor ankle surgery and will not be able to run again until April. That all but eliminates him from Derby consideration and he also drops off my list. Noble Indy looked good winning an allowance route at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 11 and moves up a few spots. 

McKinzie capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders

(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)

Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included grade one tallies in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner. In his final 2017 start, he experienced a very wide trip from an outer post in the the BC Juvenile and ended up a good 3rd considering the lost ground. He deserves the Eclipse Award for top juvenile in the land, and has always been my number one ranked Derby contender. He was originally slated to return in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10, but a muscle pull has altered those plans. He is now expected to have two Kentucky Derby preps, beginning with the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 10, followed by the Santa Anita Derby. He should return to the work tab soon.       

Derby Points (14)

(2) GOOD MAGIC  (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Comments: He ran the best overall race in his place finish in the G1 Champagne, and his Today’s Racing Digest numbers went through the roof in a visually impressive score in the BC Juvenile. He has been part of my Derby list all along, and following a training stint at Stonestreet Farm in Ocala, he was expected to venture to Palm Meadows to join the rest of Chad Brown’s Florida string the week of Dec 18. He has yet to return to the work tab, and the Holy Bull is coming up too rapidly on Feb 3. He might begin his 3-year-old campaign in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 3.      

Derby Points (24)  

(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (19/36) at Santa Anita Park on Dec. 28. 

Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up crossed the line first in the G1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (137 Final Rating) but was disqualified and placed 3rd. Let there be no doubt that he was best at Los Al and it was nice to see him relax and finish strong. Also, McKinzie exited that heat to win the G3 Sham on Jan. 6. He is getting close to his first workout of the year and his next start is undecided, but it will most likely occur at Oaklawn Park or Santa Anita Park.     

Derby Points (14)

(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18) 

Comments: He is technically 3-for-3 (placed first via DQ in Los Al Futurity), but let there be no doubt that his stablemate Solomini was best at Los Alamitos Race Course on 12-9-17. He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan. 6. He is expected to race one or two more times at Oaklawn Park (Rebel, Arkansas Derby) and/or Santa Anita (San Felipe, SA Derby) prior to the first Saturday in May.       

Derby Points (20)

(5) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)

Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)

Latest Workout: 4f in :50.40 (5/14) at Fair Grounds on Jan 8. 

Comments: Followed up a romping extended sprint victory at Churchill Downs on Nov. 10 with an even more impressive two turn allowance score at Fair Grounds on Dec. 16. The sky is the limit for this one and he is the 5-2 morning line favorite in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Jan. 13.  

(6) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (MSW, GP, 12-3-17)

Comments: He made his career debut at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 3, and in that seven panel affair, he went straight to the front and cruised home by 8+ lengths. He returned in an entry level allowance route at Gulfstream on Thursday, January 11, and in that exciting event, he hooked up with promising Mark Casse runner Mississippi from start to finish. John Velazquez confidently handled Noble Indy through the stretch and he gamely prevailed by 3/4ths of a length. Mississippi was 6+ lengths clear of the show, and the final time was 1:42.52. I will have a speed figure for that race next week. Look for this colt to show up in a stakes race in the near future.      

(7) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Iroquois Stakes, CD, 9-16-17)

Latest Workout: 4f in :50.22 (58/97) at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6. 

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing)  

Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Iorquois. His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings improved in each of his first three starts, and he broke from post 12 and rallied from last to split the field in the BC Juvenile. Trainer Dale Romans says that he has yet to put everything together in the morning and afternoon, and he has every right to improve as a 3-year-old. He has recently returned to training in South Florida, and got back on the work tab on Jan. 6.     

Derby Points (4)

(8) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.33 (21/97) at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6. 

Comments: He stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns with ease in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on Oct. 7. He made a bit of a middle move in the BC Juvenile but was basically done after six furlongs in a very disappointing performance (9th of 12). He enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign and returned to work at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6. 

Derby Points (10)

(9) FIRENZE FIRE  (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)

Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Champagne Stakes, BEL, 10-7-17)

Latest Workout: 4f in :50.88 (6/15) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Jan 8. 

Comments: 2017 Grade 3 Sanford and Grade 1 Champagne winner made a bit of a middle move before flattening out to finish 7th in the BC Juvenile. He was supposed to run in the Jerome at Aqueduct on Jan. 1, but live racing was canceled due to frigid temperatures. The Jerome has been rescheduled for Jan. 13, and he is the 3-5 morning line favorite.    

Derby Points (10) 

(10) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)

Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17) 

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.20 (3/6) at Bridlewood Farm on Jan. 12. 

Comments: Won 3 of his 4 juvenile outings including a smart surface switching tally in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and could make his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. The Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 17 is also an option if he needs another week. 

Derby Points (10)

(11) MASK (Tapit - Hidden Expression, by Yonaguska)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (Lane’s End Racing)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 152 (Mucho Macho Man, GP, 1-6-18)

Comments: The $685,000 purchase easily won his sprint debut at Belmont Park on 10-20-17 and was on cruise control throughout in an effortless wire job win in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes (one-turn mile) at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6. The Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Feb. 17 might be his next assignment.   
        
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Enticed, (13) Instilled Regard, (14) Tiz Mischief, (15) Mississippi, (16) Navistar, (17) Combatant, (18) Avery Island, (19) Peace, (20) Nero

Saturday, January 6, 2018

San Gabriel video analysis from Santa Anita Park

Check out my San Gabriel video from Santa Anita Park for Today's Racing Digest.


Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Bolt d'Oro Ends Year on Top

Bolt d’Oro began as my top Kentucky Derby 2018 contender in September and ends the year on top of the list after a very productive juvenile campaign. The 2-time Grade 1 winner could be named 2-year-old champion in the coming weeks and will start his sophomore campaign later this winter at Santa Anita Park. 



Coming in a strong second on my year-end list is BC Juvenile hero Good Magic. The Chad Brown trainee looks like a strong candidate for the 2018 Classics and is spending the winter in Florida. 

Bob Baffert trains my 3rd and 4th ranked Derby contenders, Solomini and McKinzie. Look for them on the SoCal road to the Derby, and don’t be surprised if one of them ends up at Oaklawn Park. 

Rounding out my top five is Principe Guilherme. He is spending the winter in New Orleans and is expected to make his next start in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan. 13.   

In other Derby trail news, Vino Rosso improved his record to 2-for-2 with a sharp win at Tampa Bay on Dec. 22 for trainer Todd Pletcher. He is ready for the stakes ranks.  

Strike Power looked great breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park on Dec. 23 for Mark Hennig. His aforementioned romping win was at five and one-half furlongs and I am sure his connections will give him a chance to stretch out in the near future. 

Peace, trained by Richard Mandella, flattered my ninth ranked Derby contender Shivermetimbers with a game two turn maiden win at Santa Anita Park on Dec. 30. The Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 3 is a possible target. 

My eighth ranked Derby contender, Firenze Fire, was supposed to make his 3-year-old bow in the Jerome at Aqeuduct on Jan. 1, but freezing temperatures forced that Derby prep to be rescheduled.   

Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders

(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)

Comments: He improved his Today’s Racing Digest numbers in his first three starts (all wins) including back-to-back grade one wins in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner. He experienced a very wide trip from an outer post in the the BC Juvenile and ended up a good 3rd considering the lost ground. He deserves the Eclipse Award for top juvenile in the land, and he has always been my number one ranked Derby contender. He has been training daily (should return to work tab soon), and might return in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Feb 10.     

Derby Points (14)

(2) GOOD MAGIC  (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)

Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Comments: I thought he ran the best race in his place finish in the G1 Champagne, and his Today’s Racing Digest numbers went through the roof in a visually impressive score in the BC Juvenile. He has been part of my Derby list all along, and following a training stint at Stonestreet Farm in Ocala, he was expected to head to Palm Meadows to join the rest of Brown’s Florida string the week of Dec 18.     

Derby Points (24)  

(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (19/36) at Santa Anita Park on Dec 28. 

Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up crossed the line first in the G1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (137 Final Rating) but was disqualified and placed 3rd. Let there be no doubt that he was best at Los Al and it was nice to see him relax and finish strong. His next start is undecided.    

Derby Points (14)

(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Los Al Futurity, LRC, 12-9-17) 

Latest Workout: 5f in :59.20 (4/74) at Santa Anita Park on Dec 27. 

Comments: In his seven furlong debut at Santa Anita on Oct 28, he stalked outside, took the lead in the stretch, and pulled away to win by 5+ lengths in 1:22.70 (131 Final Rating). He was the strong favorite in the CashCall Futurity and was fortunate to be placed first via disqualification (stablemate Solomini placed 3rd). He is lightly raced and might look much improved next time in his second start around two turns.      

Derby Points (10)

(5) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)

Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.60 (4/75) at Fair Grounds on Dec 31. 

Comments: Followed up a romping extended sprint victory at Churchill Downs on Nov 10 with an even more impressive two turn allowance score at Fair Grounds on Dec 16. The sky is the limit for this one and look for him to show up in a Kentucky Derby prep race in the near future. The Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on Jan 13 would be a realistic spot for his stakes debut.  

(6) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Iroquois Stakes, CD, 9-16-17)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing)  

Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Iorquois. His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings improved in each of his first three starts, and the Romans trainee broke from post 12 and rallied from last to split the field in the BC Juvenile. Romans says that he has yet to put everything together in the morning and afternoon, and he has every right to improve as a 3-year-old. He has recently returned to training in South Florida, and should be back on the work tab in the near future.     

Derby Points (4)

(7) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)

Comments: He stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns with ease in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on Oct 7. He made a bit of a middle move in the BC Juvenile but was basically done after six furlongs in a very disappointing performance (9th of 12). He enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign and is currently jogging at Gulfstream Park.

Derby Points (10)

(8) FIRENZE FIRE  (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)

Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Champagne Stakes, BEL, 10-7-17)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.66 (7/24) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Dec 27. 

Comments: Grade 3 Sanford (132 Final) and Grade 1 Champagne (140 Final) winner made a bit of a middle move before flattening out to finish 7th in the BC Juvenile. Heading into the Juvenile, I stated that he had a sprint oriented pedigree and I was concerned about two turns. After that race, I am still not sure how far he wants to go and I have a feeling that he will ultimately be best as a sprinter. He was entered in the Jerome at Aqueduct on Jan 1 but live racing was canceled due to frigid temperatures. No word on when that race will rescheduled.    

Derby Points (10) 

(9) SHIVERMETIMBERS (Shanghai Bobby - Sealaunch, by Unbridled’s Song)

Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (Mark DeDomenico, West Point Thoroughbreds)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 125 (MSW, DMR, 11-23-17)

Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13.60 (5/14) at Santa Anita on Dec 26.

Comments: Finished 3rd in his first two outings (McKinzie beat him Oct 28), and he dueled from start to finish and nipped outside stalker Peace (next out dirt route winner at SA Dec 30) by a head in a flat mile maiden race at Del Mar on Nov 23. The top two finishers were 8+ lengths in front of troubled show finisher He’s Stylish. He is expected to make his stakes debut in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6.   

(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (MSW, GP, 12-3-17)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.49 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on Dec 28. 

Comments: He made his career debut at Gulfstream Park on Dec 3, and in that seven panel affair, he went straight to the front and cruised home by 8+ lengths. He has been nominated to the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Jan 6, but Pletcher is hoping to find an allowance race.    

(11) GREYVITOS (Malibu Moon - Snow Top Mountain, by Najran)

Trainer (Adam Kitchingman) - Owner (Triple B Farms)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Remington Springboard Mile, RP, 12-17-17)

Comments: Lost his first two starts but did improve in a dirt sprint at Santa Anita Oct 21. He added blinkers and went all the way in a 19-1 upset in the G3 Bob Hope Stakes at Del Mar Nov 11, and followed that up with a smart stalk/pounce win from post 12 in the Remington Springboard Mile. He will get a short break before returning to the work tab in mid-January. His next start in undecided, according to trainer Adam Kitchingman.    

Derby Points (10)
        
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Catholic Boy, (13) Nero, (14) Tiz Mischief, (15) Analyze It, (16) Enticed, (17) Vision, (18) Instilled Regard, (19) Peace, (20) Vino Rosso