Check out my Hal's Hope video play from Gulfstream Park for Today's Racing Digest.
Friday, February 23, 2018
Sunday, February 18, 2018
Southwest Stakes 2018 + Cal Cup Derby Video
My Today's Racing Digest double feature for Feb. 19 includes the Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn Park and the Cal Cup Derby from Santa Anita Park.
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Report: Instilled Regard Risen Star Favorite
Instilled Regard, one of the top contenders for Kentucky Derby 2018, is the 8-5 morning line favorite for the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb. 17. The California shipper will once again take on Lecomte runner-up Principe Guilherme.
Instilled Regard started improving once he stretched out to two turns, beginning with his maiden win at Santa Anita Park last fall. He ended his juvenile campaign with a troubled 3rd in the G1 Los Al Futurity (placed 2nd via DQ). He shipped to Fair Grounds for his 2018 bow on Jan. 13 and defeated post time favorite Principe Guilherme by 3+ lengths in the G3 Lecomte Stakes. Following a trio of workouts at Santa Anita Park, he is back in New Orleans for the Risen Star (50-20-10-5). This is the earliest prep to award 50 Derby points to the winner, so it is basically a win and you’re in event.
Principe Guilherme aired in his first two outings before landing the place in the aforementioned Lecomte (wide journey from outer post). He shows two Fair Grounds works since his last start and will try to work out a trip from post 9 in the Risen Star.
Noble Indy won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park and makes his stakes debut in the Risen Star for trainer Todd Pletcher. He will start from post 2 and figures to be forwardly placed under John Velazquez as the 5-1 third betting choice.
The field for the 2018 Risen Star Stakes: (1) High North 15-1, (2) Noble Indy 5-1, (3) Givemeaminit 15-1, (4) Snapper Sinclair 8-1, (5) Instilled Regard 8-5, (6) Supreme Aura 8-1, (7) Bravazo 8-1, (8) Kentucky Club 30-1, (9) Principe Guilherme 7-2, (10) Ebben 30-1.
The other Kentucky Derby 2018 points race on Feb. 17 is the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby (10-4-2-1) at Golden Gate Fields. The California Derby was the final local prep for the El Camino Real, and Southern California invader Choo Choo defeated local hope Mugaritz by a bit less than two lengths that day, with Intimidate checking in 3rd.
Let’s look back at the recently completed Kentucky Derby points races, beginning with the Sam F. Davis Stakes from Tampa Bay Downs:
Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes (Tampa Bay Downs, 2-10-18)
Last year’s G2 Remsen hero Catholic Boy made his much anticipated return in Florida and was the overwhelming favorite despite having just four published workouts in 2018. As expected, Flameaway went to the front and quickly established early command in a race without much pace. Catholic Boy made a run at him, but he never could get by and fell a 1/2 length short in an okay start to his sophomore season. Vino Rosso ran in spots and was well clear of Hollywood Star in 3rd. The other two outsiders were far back as expected. Flameaway is not nominated to the Triple Crown but his connections are going to rectify that by paying $6,000 before the late deadline on March 19. Like many early season Derby preps this year, we are not learning much as early/pressing types are tripping-out and dominating these winter routes with compact fields.
Grade 3 Withers Stakes (Aqueduct, 2-3-18, 150 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Last year’s G2 Nashua winner and G2 Remsen runner-up Avery Island shipped back to New York after a quartet of 2018 workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee was always well placed under Joe Bravo and was clearly up to the task off a layoff in a handy two length tally over the hard trying Firenze Fire. Marconi was well clear of the other two entrants in 3rd. It is tough to get a read on these winter Derby preps in New York, but at least Avery Island proved that he could handle nine furlongs in a rare early season point race at that distance.
Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream Park, 2-3-18, 156 Final Rating)
Audible burst onto the Derby trail for trainer Todd Pletcher with an authoritative 5+ length stalk/pounce score over Free Drop Billy, who was 7+ clear of show finisher Tiz Mischief. Enticed was a disappointing 4th and the other five entrants were far back. The top two ran well, and this was just a starting point for late runner Tiz Mischief. There was not much pace in this affair, and the jury is still out on the overall strength of this Derby prep.
Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita Park, 2-3-18, 138 Final Rating)
Another Derby prep with a forwardly placed winner. Lombo, returning in two weeks following a front winning maiden sprint win, shot to the lead and never relinquished his advantage in an 8-1 upset over late running place finisher Ayacara. Dark Vader stalked the pace and was best of the rest in 3rd. G3 Sham 4th place finisher Shivermetimbers disappointed again, and post time favorite Peaceadded blinkers and never got involved. This was not a strong Derby prep but Ayacara was making up ground for Team Desormeaux and could hit the board in future Derby preps.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Mississippi, runner-up to Noble Indy at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 11, missed by a neck and was clearly second best again at the Gulf on Feb. 4. He could show up in the Fountain of Youth Stakes next.
Smarty Jones Stakes winner Mourinho continues to prepare for the Feb. 19 Southwest (Kentucky Derby points race). He traveled seven panels in 1:26 (1/2) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 7. Smarty Jones runner-up Combatant breezed 5f in 1:01.20 (4/18) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 7. He is also Southwest bound.
Trainer Bob Baffert might have a new Derby trail runner. Restoring Hope (Giant’s Causeway - Symbol of Freedom, by Tapit) cruised to an easy two turn maiden win in his third lifetime start at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 2. He returned to work 4f in 47.60 (4/10) on Feb. 11 and is expected to show up in a Derby points race in the near future.
Montauk is officially off the Derby trail for trainer Todd Pletcher. His only start was a romping win last fall, and he was unlikely to make the Derby anyway, but a minor throat issue sealed his fate. He could be an important 3-year-old later this year.
Hollywood Star finished a disappointing 4th in his sophomore debut in the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes and drops off my list. He could go better next time if he gets more pace help but is not a Derby quality colt at this time.
Instilled Regard capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :47.80 (6/25) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: The 2-time grade one-winning juvenile has had three works this year following a minor muscle pull. The G1 BC Juvenile show finisher remains on target for the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10, and Javier Castellano takes over the riding duties.
Derby Points (14)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (5/20) at Palm Meadows on Feb. 10.
Comments: The 2-year-old champ got back on the work tab on Jan. 21 and has been on a steady once a week training pattern since. The G1 BC Juvenile hero is on course for his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 3.
Derby Points (24)
(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (13/67) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up had his number taken down in the G1 Alamitos CashCall Futurity (placed 3rd via disqualification). He got sick earlier this winter and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. He will have two Derby preps, and they will most likely occur at Oaklawn Park and/or Santa Anita Park.
Derby Points (14)
(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.20 (3/53) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10.
Comments: He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6. He got back to work on Jan. 21 and is expected to race two more times at Oaklawn Park (Rebel, Arkansas Derby) and/or Santa Anita (San Felipe, SA Derby) prior to the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (20)
(5) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.12 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 10.
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park and will make his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb. 17. He drew post position 2 in the Risen Star and will once again be ridden by John Velazquez. He is the 5-1 third choice on the morning line.
(6) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)
Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (8/37) at Fair Grounds on Feb. 5.
Comments: Followed up a pair of romping victories with a wide runner-up finish from an outer post in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Jan. 13. He will have to overcome an outer post once again in the Risen Star. In that upcoming event, he will break from post position 9 in a 10-horse field. He went wire-to-wire in his first two starts before settling off the pace in the Lecomte. Maybe jockey Florent Geroux gets aggressive in the Risen Star.
Derby Points (4)
(7) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (Lecomte Stakes, FG, 1-13-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13 (2/8) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10.
Comments: Lost his first two sprints and turned the corner over a route of ground in his last three starts. After earning his diploma at Santa Anita on 10-29-17, he was placed 2nd via disqualification in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. I love his tactical speed, and he proved that he could ship and win last time. He drew well in post 5 and is the 8-5 morning line favorite in the Risen Star Stakes.
Derby Points (14)
(8) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. It is possible that he will have one more race before the first Saturday in May, and that would be the Florida Derby on March 31.
Derby Points (10)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)
Comments: The G1 Breeders’ Futurity hero put his BC Juvenile flop behind him with a solid place finish in his sophomore return in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to the Holy Bull and should be fitter next time. He matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating at the Gulf on Feb. 3.
Derby Points (14)
(10) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp surface switching victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and finished a solid if unspectacular 2nd in his comeback race in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. He rallied into tepid splits in the Davis and was not fully cranked for his first start of 2018. He is expected to have one more Derby prep in either the Louisiana Derby on March 24 or the Florida Derby a week later.
Derby Points (14)
(11) FIRENZE FIRE (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Jerome Stakes, AQU, 1-13-18)
Comments: We are starting to get a very good gauge on his true ability after seven career starts. He is 4-for-5 in one-turn races (won G3 Sanford, G1 Champagne, and listed Jerome), and 0-for-2 in routes. In his last start in the G3 Withers at a mile and an eighth, he was a grinding 2nd in an okay effort (144 Final Rating). The next Derby prep at Aqueduct is the Gotham Stakes on March 10, followed by the Wood Memorial on April 7. He could run in both, or just the latter.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Avery Island, (13) Mourinho, (14) Combatant, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Mississippi, (17) Restoring Hope, (18) Enticed, (19) Vino Rosso, (20) Ayacara
Instilled Regard started improving once he stretched out to two turns, beginning with his maiden win at Santa Anita Park last fall. He ended his juvenile campaign with a troubled 3rd in the G1 Los Al Futurity (placed 2nd via DQ). He shipped to Fair Grounds for his 2018 bow on Jan. 13 and defeated post time favorite Principe Guilherme by 3+ lengths in the G3 Lecomte Stakes. Following a trio of workouts at Santa Anita Park, he is back in New Orleans for the Risen Star (50-20-10-5). This is the earliest prep to award 50 Derby points to the winner, so it is basically a win and you’re in event.
Principe Guilherme aired in his first two outings before landing the place in the aforementioned Lecomte (wide journey from outer post). He shows two Fair Grounds works since his last start and will try to work out a trip from post 9 in the Risen Star.
Noble Indy won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park and makes his stakes debut in the Risen Star for trainer Todd Pletcher. He will start from post 2 and figures to be forwardly placed under John Velazquez as the 5-1 third betting choice.
The field for the 2018 Risen Star Stakes: (1) High North 15-1, (2) Noble Indy 5-1, (3) Givemeaminit 15-1, (4) Snapper Sinclair 8-1, (5) Instilled Regard 8-5, (6) Supreme Aura 8-1, (7) Bravazo 8-1, (8) Kentucky Club 30-1, (9) Principe Guilherme 7-2, (10) Ebben 30-1.
The other Kentucky Derby 2018 points race on Feb. 17 is the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby (10-4-2-1) at Golden Gate Fields. The California Derby was the final local prep for the El Camino Real, and Southern California invader Choo Choo defeated local hope Mugaritz by a bit less than two lengths that day, with Intimidate checking in 3rd.
Let’s look back at the recently completed Kentucky Derby points races, beginning with the Sam F. Davis Stakes from Tampa Bay Downs:
Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes (Tampa Bay Downs, 2-10-18)
Last year’s G2 Remsen hero Catholic Boy made his much anticipated return in Florida and was the overwhelming favorite despite having just four published workouts in 2018. As expected, Flameaway went to the front and quickly established early command in a race without much pace. Catholic Boy made a run at him, but he never could get by and fell a 1/2 length short in an okay start to his sophomore season. Vino Rosso ran in spots and was well clear of Hollywood Star in 3rd. The other two outsiders were far back as expected. Flameaway is not nominated to the Triple Crown but his connections are going to rectify that by paying $6,000 before the late deadline on March 19. Like many early season Derby preps this year, we are not learning much as early/pressing types are tripping-out and dominating these winter routes with compact fields.
Grade 3 Withers Stakes (Aqueduct, 2-3-18, 150 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Last year’s G2 Nashua winner and G2 Remsen runner-up Avery Island shipped back to New York after a quartet of 2018 workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee was always well placed under Joe Bravo and was clearly up to the task off a layoff in a handy two length tally over the hard trying Firenze Fire. Marconi was well clear of the other two entrants in 3rd. It is tough to get a read on these winter Derby preps in New York, but at least Avery Island proved that he could handle nine furlongs in a rare early season point race at that distance.
Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream Park, 2-3-18, 156 Final Rating)
Audible burst onto the Derby trail for trainer Todd Pletcher with an authoritative 5+ length stalk/pounce score over Free Drop Billy, who was 7+ clear of show finisher Tiz Mischief. Enticed was a disappointing 4th and the other five entrants were far back. The top two ran well, and this was just a starting point for late runner Tiz Mischief. There was not much pace in this affair, and the jury is still out on the overall strength of this Derby prep.
Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita Park, 2-3-18, 138 Final Rating)
Another Derby prep with a forwardly placed winner. Lombo, returning in two weeks following a front winning maiden sprint win, shot to the lead and never relinquished his advantage in an 8-1 upset over late running place finisher Ayacara. Dark Vader stalked the pace and was best of the rest in 3rd. G3 Sham 4th place finisher Shivermetimbers disappointed again, and post time favorite Peaceadded blinkers and never got involved. This was not a strong Derby prep but Ayacara was making up ground for Team Desormeaux and could hit the board in future Derby preps.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Mississippi, runner-up to Noble Indy at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 11, missed by a neck and was clearly second best again at the Gulf on Feb. 4. He could show up in the Fountain of Youth Stakes next.
Smarty Jones Stakes winner Mourinho continues to prepare for the Feb. 19 Southwest (Kentucky Derby points race). He traveled seven panels in 1:26 (1/2) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 7. Smarty Jones runner-up Combatant breezed 5f in 1:01.20 (4/18) at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 7. He is also Southwest bound.
Trainer Bob Baffert might have a new Derby trail runner. Restoring Hope (Giant’s Causeway - Symbol of Freedom, by Tapit) cruised to an easy two turn maiden win in his third lifetime start at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 2. He returned to work 4f in 47.60 (4/10) on Feb. 11 and is expected to show up in a Derby points race in the near future.
Montauk is officially off the Derby trail for trainer Todd Pletcher. His only start was a romping win last fall, and he was unlikely to make the Derby anyway, but a minor throat issue sealed his fate. He could be an important 3-year-old later this year.
Hollywood Star finished a disappointing 4th in his sophomore debut in the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes and drops off my list. He could go better next time if he gets more pace help but is not a Derby quality colt at this time.
Instilled Regard capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :47.80 (6/25) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: The 2-time grade one-winning juvenile has had three works this year following a minor muscle pull. The G1 BC Juvenile show finisher remains on target for the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10, and Javier Castellano takes over the riding duties.
Derby Points (14)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (5/20) at Palm Meadows on Feb. 10.
Comments: The 2-year-old champ got back on the work tab on Jan. 21 and has been on a steady once a week training pattern since. The G1 BC Juvenile hero is on course for his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 3.
Derby Points (24)
(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.40 (13/67) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up had his number taken down in the G1 Alamitos CashCall Futurity (placed 3rd via disqualification). He got sick earlier this winter and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. He will have two Derby preps, and they will most likely occur at Oaklawn Park and/or Santa Anita Park.
Derby Points (14)
(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.20 (3/53) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10.
Comments: He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6. He got back to work on Jan. 21 and is expected to race two more times at Oaklawn Park (Rebel, Arkansas Derby) and/or Santa Anita (San Felipe, SA Derby) prior to the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (20)
(5) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.12 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 10.
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park and will make his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb. 17. He drew post position 2 in the Risen Star and will once again be ridden by John Velazquez. He is the 5-1 third choice on the morning line.
(6) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)
Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (8/37) at Fair Grounds on Feb. 5.
Comments: Followed up a pair of romping victories with a wide runner-up finish from an outer post in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Jan. 13. He will have to overcome an outer post once again in the Risen Star. In that upcoming event, he will break from post position 9 in a 10-horse field. He went wire-to-wire in his first two starts before settling off the pace in the Lecomte. Maybe jockey Florent Geroux gets aggressive in the Risen Star.
Derby Points (4)
(7) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (Lecomte Stakes, FG, 1-13-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13 (2/8) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 10.
Comments: Lost his first two sprints and turned the corner over a route of ground in his last three starts. After earning his diploma at Santa Anita on 10-29-17, he was placed 2nd via disqualification in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. I love his tactical speed, and he proved that he could ship and win last time. He drew well in post 5 and is the 8-5 morning line favorite in the Risen Star Stakes.
Derby Points (14)
(8) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. It is possible that he will have one more race before the first Saturday in May, and that would be the Florida Derby on March 31.
Derby Points (10)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)
Comments: The G1 Breeders’ Futurity hero put his BC Juvenile flop behind him with a solid place finish in his sophomore return in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to the Holy Bull and should be fitter next time. He matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating at the Gulf on Feb. 3.
Derby Points (14)
(10) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp surface switching victory in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and finished a solid if unspectacular 2nd in his comeback race in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. He rallied into tepid splits in the Davis and was not fully cranked for his first start of 2018. He is expected to have one more Derby prep in either the Louisiana Derby on March 24 or the Florida Derby a week later.
Derby Points (14)
(11) FIRENZE FIRE (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Jerome Stakes, AQU, 1-13-18)
Comments: We are starting to get a very good gauge on his true ability after seven career starts. He is 4-for-5 in one-turn races (won G3 Sanford, G1 Champagne, and listed Jerome), and 0-for-2 in routes. In his last start in the G3 Withers at a mile and an eighth, he was a grinding 2nd in an okay effort (144 Final Rating). The next Derby prep at Aqueduct is the Gotham Stakes on March 10, followed by the Wood Memorial on April 7. He could run in both, or just the latter.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Avery Island, (13) Mourinho, (14) Combatant, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Mississippi, (17) Restoring Hope, (18) Enticed, (19) Vino Rosso, (20) Ayacara
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Friday, February 2, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Bolt d'Oro back to work in California
Two-time grade one winner Bolt d’Oro, one of the favorites for Kentucky Derby 2018, had his first work of the year for trainer Mick Ruis. He traveled three furlongs at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, Jan. 27. It was the second best of eight moves at the distance.
Bolt d’Oro will begin his sophomore campaign in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10. His new rider will be Javier Castellano, who replaces Corey Nakatani.
Last week, there were no Kentucky Derby points races, but we are back in action with a trio of Derby preps this weekend:
Grade 3 Withers Stakes (Aqueduct, 2-3-18)
My ninth ranked Derby contender, Firenze Fire, is back in action in the Withers Stakes (nine furlongs) at Aqueduct on Feb. 3. His trainer, Jason Servis, originally said he would wait for the Gotham Stakes in March, but he is reportedly doing well following his victory in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 13. Avery Island (5f in 1:00.75 on Jan. 27 at Palm Meadows) ships in from Florida for Kiaran McLaughlin, and the G2 Remsen runner-up is the 8-5 morning line favorite. Marconi (4f in :49 at Belmont Park on Jan. 27) is Todd Pletcher’s top representative, and he is the third choice on the line at 3-1. Pletcher also has Mucho Macho Man runner-up Bal Harbour and Jerome show finisher Coltandmississippi.
Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream Park, 2-3-18)
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes hero Enticed (4f in :49.75 at Palm Meadows on Jan. 26) drew the advantageous inside post and will represent trainer Kiaran McLaughlin in the Holy Bull. He will take on Dale Roamns trainees Free Drop Billy, Bandito, Hollywood Star, and Tiz Mischief (5f in 1:00.07 at GP on Jan. 27). Mississippi drew post 11 for Mark Casse and will scratch. He has been rerouted to an allowance race at the Gulf on Feb. 4. In Sunday’s race, he will meet highly regarded Todd Pletcher runner Navistar.
Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita Park, 2-3-18)
Peace (6f in 1:13.60 on Jan. 27) and Shivermetimbers (5f in 1:01.80 on Jan. 28) figure to talk the bulk of the wagering action in the Lewis Stakes. Inscom switches surfaces for trainer Simon Callaghan, as does Ayacara for Team Desormeaux. Lombo stretches out in distance and looms the target.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Mucho Macho Man winner Maskwill miss two weeks of training (undisclosed setback). He is out of the Risen Star Stakes, and he drops off the bottom of my Derby list as well. He only has two starts (both around one turn) and not much foundation, so any setback for him is a huge deal.
G3 Lecomte hero Instilled Regard got back to work on Jan. 24. He traveled 4f in :47.80 (4/41) at Santa Anita Park. He worked again on Feb. 1, and is the newest member of the “exceptional eleven.” Welcome aboard!
Mississippi, runner-up to Noble Indy in his last start at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 11, worked a half-mile in :49.65 at Palm Meadows on Jan. 27. As mentioned earlier, he will run in an allowance route at Gulfstream Park on Super Bowl Sunday. If he does well, look for him to show up in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Navistar could not get a plane to Oaklawn Park for the Smarty Jones Stakes, so he had to scratch out of that event. He has worked three times since, including a half-mile breeze in :49.33 at Palm Beach Downs on Jan. 28. He meets Mississippion Feb. 4.
Speaking of the Smarty Jones Stakes, the front running winner of that race, Mourinho, fired a 6f bullet in 1:12.60 at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 1. He is scheduled to return to Oaklawn Park for the Feb. 19 Southwest Stakes.
Smarty Jones runner-up Combatant got back to work with a 5f move in 1:01.40 at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 31. The Southwest is up next.
Montauk finally returned to the work tab for Todd Pletcher. He went 3f in :37.20 (1/2) at Palm Beach Downs on Jan. 28. I put him on my list after his scintillating debut at Belmont Park on 10-7-17, but removed him due to inactivity. The Derby is a real longshot, but he is an interesting long term 3-year-old prospect.
Another Pletcher runner, Vino Rosso (2-for-2 in 2017), is gearing up for a Derby trail campaign. He worked three times in January, most recently breezing 5f in 1:02.19 at Palm Beach Downs on the 28th.
Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)
Latest Workout: 3f in :36.80 (2/10) at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 27.
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included grade one tallies in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes. In his final 2-year-old start, he experienced a very wide trip from an outer post in the the BC Juvenile and ended up a respectable 3rd considering the lost ground. I thought he was robbed of the Eclipse Award for top 2-year-old in the US. He was originally slated to return in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Feb 10, but a muscle pull altered those plans. He will now have two Kentucky Derby preps, beginning with the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 10, followed by the Santa Anita Derby. He returned to the work tab on Jan. 27, and jockey Javier Castellano will replace Corey Nakatani when he runs in the San Felipe.
Derby Points (14)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :48.45 (1/37) at Palm Meadows on Jan 28.
Comments: He ran the best overall race in his place finish in the G1 Champagne, and his Today’s Racing Digest numbers went through the roof in a visually impressive score in the BC Juvenile. In a close call, he got the Eclipse Award over Bolt d’Oro, even though the latter had a more impressive overall campaign last year. He has been part of my Derby list all along, and following a training stint at Stonestreet Farm in Ocala, he headed to Palm Meadows to join the rest of Brown’s Florida string in mid-December. He returned to the work tab with a three furlong bullet on Jan. 21, and fired another bullet on Jan. 28. He is expected to begin his 3-year-old campaign in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 3.
Derby Points (24)
(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (19/36) at Santa Anita Park on Dec 28.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up crossed the line first in the G1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (137 Final Rating) but was disqualified and placed 3rd. He was clearly best at Los Al and it was nice to see him relax and finish strong. McKinzie exited that heat to win the G3 Sham on Jan. 6, and Instilled Regard came out of that race to capture the G3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on Jan. 13. He recently got sick and has yet to work this year (last published work on 12-28-17). He is reportedly on the road to recovery, and at this stage, it looks as though he will have two Derby preps, and they will most likely occur at Oaklawn Park and/or Santa Anita Park.
Derby Points (14)
(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (45/87) at Santa Anita Park on Jan 21.
Comments: He is technically 3-for-3 (placed first via DQ in Los Al Futurity), but let there be no doubt that his stablemate Solomini was best at Los Alamitos Race Course on 12-9-17. He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6. He is expected to race two more times at Oaklawn Park (Rebel, Arkansas Derby) and/or Santa Anita (San Felipe, SA Derby) prior to the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (20)
(5) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :50.03 (9/14) at Palm Beach Downs on Jan. 27.
Comments: He made his career debut at Gulfstream Park on Dec 3, and in that seven panel affair, he went straight to the front and cruised home by 8+ lengths. He returned in an entry level allowance route at Gulfstream on Thursday, January 11, and in that exciting event, he hooked up with promising Mark Casse runner Mississippi from start to finish. John Velazquez confidently handled Noble Indy through the stretch and he gamely prevailed by 3/4ths of a length. Mississippi was 6+ lengths clear of the show, and the final time was 1:42.52. He is on the upswing for Pletcher and appears ready for stakes company.
(6) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)
Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.40 (6/55) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 29.
Comments: Romped in his first two starts including an impressive two turn allowance score at Fair Grounds on Dec 16. He went off as the favorite in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, January 13, and ended up a grinding 2nd (123 Final Rating) after a wide trip from an outer post. He will have to run faster in his next Derby prep, which will probably come in the Grade 2 Risen Star in New Orleans on Feb. 17.
Derby Points (4)
(7) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Iroquois Stakes, CD, 9-16-17)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.02 (1/18) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 27.
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing)
Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Iorquois. His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings improved in each of his first three starts, and the Romans trainee broke from post 12 and rallied from last to split the field in the BC Juvenile. He has yet to put everything together in the morning and afternoon, and he has every right to improve this year. He had his first work of the year on Jan. 6, and is entered in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Feb. 3.
Derby Points (4)
(8) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.02 (1/18) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 27.
Comments: He stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns with ease in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on October 7. He made a bit of a middle move in the BC Juvenile but was basically done after six furlongs in a very disappointing performance (9th of 12). He enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign, returned to work at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6, and is entered in the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3.
Derby Points (10)
(9) FIRENZE FIRE (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Jerome Stakes, AQU, 1-13-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.32 (9/23) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Jan. 29.
Comments: He captured the G3 Sanford and G1 Champagne (140 Final Rating) as a juvenile before finishing a flat 7th in the BC Juvenile. He finally was able to make his sophomore debut in the rescheduled Jerome at Aqueduct on Saturday, Jan. 13, and he overcame a layoff, lack of pace, and a wet track to run down lone speed Seven Trumpets. The 3-time stakes winner obviously has ability but all four of his wins were around one turn, and stamina continues to be the main question. The Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10 was supposed to be his next target, but he is right back in the entry box for the Withers Stakes at the Big A on Feb. 3. He drew the inside post and is the 9-5 second choice on the morning line.
Derby Points (20)
(10) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01 (2/22) at Tampa Bay on Jan. 27.
Comments: Won 3 of his 4 juvenile outings including a smart surface switching tally in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and is on track to make his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10.
Derby Points (10)
(11) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (Lecomte Stakes, FG, 1-13-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.80 (17/25) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 1.
Comments: Lost his first two sprints and turned the corner over a route of ground in his last three. After earning his diploma at SA on 10-29-17, he was placed 2nd via disqualification in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. I love his tactical speed, and he proved that he could ship and win last time. He is expected to return to New Orleans for the Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 17.
Derby Points (14)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Enticed, (13) Tiz Mischief, (14) Mississippi, (15) Combatant, (16) Avery Island, (17) Peace, (18) Mourinho, (19) Navistar, (20) Vino Rosso
Bolt d’Oro will begin his sophomore campaign in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, March 10. His new rider will be Javier Castellano, who replaces Corey Nakatani.
Last week, there were no Kentucky Derby points races, but we are back in action with a trio of Derby preps this weekend:
Grade 3 Withers Stakes (Aqueduct, 2-3-18)
My ninth ranked Derby contender, Firenze Fire, is back in action in the Withers Stakes (nine furlongs) at Aqueduct on Feb. 3. His trainer, Jason Servis, originally said he would wait for the Gotham Stakes in March, but he is reportedly doing well following his victory in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on Jan. 13. Avery Island (5f in 1:00.75 on Jan. 27 at Palm Meadows) ships in from Florida for Kiaran McLaughlin, and the G2 Remsen runner-up is the 8-5 morning line favorite. Marconi (4f in :49 at Belmont Park on Jan. 27) is Todd Pletcher’s top representative, and he is the third choice on the line at 3-1. Pletcher also has Mucho Macho Man runner-up Bal Harbour and Jerome show finisher Coltandmississippi.
Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes (Gulfstream Park, 2-3-18)
G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes hero Enticed (4f in :49.75 at Palm Meadows on Jan. 26) drew the advantageous inside post and will represent trainer Kiaran McLaughlin in the Holy Bull. He will take on Dale Roamns trainees Free Drop Billy, Bandito, Hollywood Star, and Tiz Mischief (5f in 1:00.07 at GP on Jan. 27). Mississippi drew post 11 for Mark Casse and will scratch. He has been rerouted to an allowance race at the Gulf on Feb. 4. In Sunday’s race, he will meet highly regarded Todd Pletcher runner Navistar.
Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita Park, 2-3-18)
Peace (6f in 1:13.60 on Jan. 27) and Shivermetimbers (5f in 1:01.80 on Jan. 28) figure to talk the bulk of the wagering action in the Lewis Stakes. Inscom switches surfaces for trainer Simon Callaghan, as does Ayacara for Team Desormeaux. Lombo stretches out in distance and looms the target.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Mucho Macho Man winner Maskwill miss two weeks of training (undisclosed setback). He is out of the Risen Star Stakes, and he drops off the bottom of my Derby list as well. He only has two starts (both around one turn) and not much foundation, so any setback for him is a huge deal.
G3 Lecomte hero Instilled Regard got back to work on Jan. 24. He traveled 4f in :47.80 (4/41) at Santa Anita Park. He worked again on Feb. 1, and is the newest member of the “exceptional eleven.” Welcome aboard!
Mississippi, runner-up to Noble Indy in his last start at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 11, worked a half-mile in :49.65 at Palm Meadows on Jan. 27. As mentioned earlier, he will run in an allowance route at Gulfstream Park on Super Bowl Sunday. If he does well, look for him to show up in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Navistar could not get a plane to Oaklawn Park for the Smarty Jones Stakes, so he had to scratch out of that event. He has worked three times since, including a half-mile breeze in :49.33 at Palm Beach Downs on Jan. 28. He meets Mississippion Feb. 4.
Speaking of the Smarty Jones Stakes, the front running winner of that race, Mourinho, fired a 6f bullet in 1:12.60 at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 1. He is scheduled to return to Oaklawn Park for the Feb. 19 Southwest Stakes.
Smarty Jones runner-up Combatant got back to work with a 5f move in 1:01.40 at Oaklawn Park on Jan. 31. The Southwest is up next.
Montauk finally returned to the work tab for Todd Pletcher. He went 3f in :37.20 (1/2) at Palm Beach Downs on Jan. 28. I put him on my list after his scintillating debut at Belmont Park on 10-7-17, but removed him due to inactivity. The Derby is a real longshot, but he is an interesting long term 3-year-old prospect.
Another Pletcher runner, Vino Rosso (2-for-2 in 2017), is gearing up for a Derby trail campaign. He worked three times in January, most recently breezing 5f in 1:02.19 at Palm Beach Downs on the 28th.
Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (FrontRunner Stakes, SA, 9-30-17)
Latest Workout: 3f in :36.80 (2/10) at Santa Anita Park on Jan. 27.
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included grade one tallies in the Del Mar Futurity and FrontRunner Stakes. In his final 2-year-old start, he experienced a very wide trip from an outer post in the the BC Juvenile and ended up a respectable 3rd considering the lost ground. I thought he was robbed of the Eclipse Award for top 2-year-old in the US. He was originally slated to return in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Feb 10, but a muscle pull altered those plans. He will now have two Kentucky Derby preps, beginning with the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 10, followed by the Santa Anita Derby. He returned to the work tab on Jan. 27, and jockey Javier Castellano will replace Corey Nakatani when he runs in the San Felipe.
Derby Points (14)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :48.45 (1/37) at Palm Meadows on Jan 28.
Comments: He ran the best overall race in his place finish in the G1 Champagne, and his Today’s Racing Digest numbers went through the roof in a visually impressive score in the BC Juvenile. In a close call, he got the Eclipse Award over Bolt d’Oro, even though the latter had a more impressive overall campaign last year. He has been part of my Derby list all along, and following a training stint at Stonestreet Farm in Ocala, he headed to Palm Meadows to join the rest of Brown’s Florida string in mid-December. He returned to the work tab with a three furlong bullet on Jan. 21, and fired another bullet on Jan. 28. He is expected to begin his 3-year-old campaign in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 3.
Derby Points (24)
(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (19/36) at Santa Anita Park on Dec 28.
Comments: The G1 FrontRunner and G1 BC Juvenile runner-up crossed the line first in the G1 Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity (137 Final Rating) but was disqualified and placed 3rd. He was clearly best at Los Al and it was nice to see him relax and finish strong. McKinzie exited that heat to win the G3 Sham on Jan. 6, and Instilled Regard came out of that race to capture the G3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds on Jan. 13. He recently got sick and has yet to work this year (last published work on 12-28-17). He is reportedly on the road to recovery, and at this stage, it looks as though he will have two Derby preps, and they will most likely occur at Oaklawn Park and/or Santa Anita Park.
Derby Points (14)
(4) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49 (45/87) at Santa Anita Park on Jan 21.
Comments: He is technically 3-for-3 (placed first via DQ in Los Al Futurity), but let there be no doubt that his stablemate Solomini was best at Los Alamitos Race Course on 12-9-17. He removed blinkers for his 2018 debut and was a strong stalk and pounce winner of the Sham Stakes at Santa Anita on Jan 6. He is expected to race two more times at Oaklawn Park (Rebel, Arkansas Derby) and/or Santa Anita (San Felipe, SA Derby) prior to the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (20)
(5) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :50.03 (9/14) at Palm Beach Downs on Jan. 27.
Comments: He made his career debut at Gulfstream Park on Dec 3, and in that seven panel affair, he went straight to the front and cruised home by 8+ lengths. He returned in an entry level allowance route at Gulfstream on Thursday, January 11, and in that exciting event, he hooked up with promising Mark Casse runner Mississippi from start to finish. John Velazquez confidently handled Noble Indy through the stretch and he gamely prevailed by 3/4ths of a length. Mississippi was 6+ lengths clear of the show, and the final time was 1:42.52. He is on the upswing for Pletcher and appears ready for stakes company.
(6) PRINCIPE GUILHERME (Tapit - Aubby K, by Street Sense)
Trainer (Steve Asmussen) - Owner (Three Chimneys Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Optional Claiming, FG, 12-16-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.40 (6/55) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 29.
Comments: Romped in his first two starts including an impressive two turn allowance score at Fair Grounds on Dec 16. He went off as the favorite in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, January 13, and ended up a grinding 2nd (123 Final Rating) after a wide trip from an outer post. He will have to run faster in his next Derby prep, which will probably come in the Grade 2 Risen Star in New Orleans on Feb. 17.
Derby Points (4)
(7) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Iroquois Stakes, CD, 9-16-17)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.02 (1/18) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 27.
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing)
Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special and G3 Iorquois. His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings improved in each of his first three starts, and the Romans trainee broke from post 12 and rallied from last to split the field in the BC Juvenile. He has yet to put everything together in the morning and afternoon, and he has every right to improve this year. He had his first work of the year on Jan. 6, and is entered in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Feb. 3.
Derby Points (4)
(8) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, 10-7-17)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.02 (1/18) at Gulfstream Park on Jan 27.
Comments: He stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns with ease in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on October 7. He made a bit of a middle move in the BC Juvenile but was basically done after six furlongs in a very disappointing performance (9th of 12). He enjoyed a productive juvenile campaign, returned to work at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 6, and is entered in the Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3.
Derby Points (10)
(9) FIRENZE FIRE (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Jerome Stakes, AQU, 1-13-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.32 (9/23) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on Jan. 29.
Comments: He captured the G3 Sanford and G1 Champagne (140 Final Rating) as a juvenile before finishing a flat 7th in the BC Juvenile. He finally was able to make his sophomore debut in the rescheduled Jerome at Aqueduct on Saturday, Jan. 13, and he overcame a layoff, lack of pace, and a wet track to run down lone speed Seven Trumpets. The 3-time stakes winner obviously has ability but all four of his wins were around one turn, and stamina continues to be the main question. The Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10 was supposed to be his next target, but he is right back in the entry box for the Withers Stakes at the Big A on Feb. 3. He drew the inside post and is the 9-5 second choice on the morning line.
Derby Points (20)
(10) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01 (2/22) at Tampa Bay on Jan. 27.
Comments: Won 3 of his 4 juvenile outings including a smart surface switching tally in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on Dec. 2. He got back on the work tab on Jan. 12 and is on track to make his 3-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10.
Derby Points (10)
(11) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 135 (Lecomte Stakes, FG, 1-13-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.80 (17/25) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 1.
Comments: Lost his first two sprints and turned the corner over a route of ground in his last three. After earning his diploma at SA on 10-29-17, he was placed 2nd via disqualification in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and followed that up with a decisive score in the G3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. I love his tactical speed, and he proved that he could ship and win last time. He is expected to return to New Orleans for the Risen Star Stakes on Feb. 17.
Derby Points (14)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Enticed, (13) Tiz Mischief, (14) Mississippi, (15) Combatant, (16) Avery Island, (17) Peace, (18) Mourinho, (19) Navistar, (20) Vino Rosso
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