Magnum Moon is a perfect 3-for-3 this year, and he once again projects a nice tactical trip in Hot Springs, Arkansas. His main rival appears to be Solomini, and he defeated that one easily in the Rebel Stakes last month. The latter is conditioned by Bob Baffert, and he is frequently dangerous in sophomore stakes races at Oaklawn Park.
Quip was rerouted to the Arkansas Derby after scratching out of the Blue Grass Stakes last weekend. He looked good winning the Tampa Bay Derby in his last start and should be forwardly placed.
Combatant will break from the outside post, and he hit the board in all four of his Derby points races (Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, Southwest, Rebel Stakes).
The Arkansas Derby field, from the rail out: Beautiful Shot, Machismo, Tenfold, Dream Baby Dream, Solomini, Magnum Moon, Plainsman, Quip, and Combatant.
This is the end of the line for the Derby points race series. In addition to the Arkansas Derby (100-40-20-10), the Lexington Stakes will offer 20-8-4-2 points to the top four finishers.
Twelve horses will contest the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 14, and My Boy Jack, currently on the Derby points bubble with 32 points, drew post twelve. Kent Desormeaux rides for his brother Keith, and the late runner followed up a strong off the pace tally in the Southwest with a close-up show finish in the Louisiana Derby.
Last year’s Bob Hope Stakes and Springboard Mile hero Greyvitos makes his much anticipated 3-year-old debut for Adam Kitchingman. Even if he were to win the Lexington Stakes, he would only have 30 Derby points, and that would like leave him a bit short. This is most likely a Preakness prep for him.
Telekenesis is a highly regarded Mark Casse runner with only two lifetime starts. The Ontario-bred son of Ghostzapper is a candidate for the Queen’s Plate at Woodbine on Saturday, June 30.
The Lexington Stakes field, from the rail out: Battle At Sea, Telekenesis, Seven Trumpets, Honor Up, Magicalmeister, Greyvitos, Pony Up, Gracida, Navy Armed Guard, Zanesville, Arched Feather, and My Boy Jack.
Let’s look back at the three Kentucky Derby points races from April 7:
Blue Grass (Keeneland, 4-7-18; 150 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Never count out a champion, especially with excellent connections in his corner. Last year’s BC Juvenile hero and 2-year-old champ Good Magic was a flat 3rd his Fountain of Youth return. Trainer Chad Brown had him fit and ready to go at Keeneland on Saturday, and he responded with a solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post. He gamely battled with ultra-consistent runner Flameaway and drove clear by a length and a half. Sporting Chance raced erratically in the stretch and ran into Free Drop Billy late. The latter was elevated to 3rd, and he has enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby.
SA Derby (Santa Anita Park, 4-7-18, 147 Final Rating)
This race was over at the start when post time favorite Justify was allowed to coast all alone up front through soft fractions of 23.96, 47.85, and 1:12.61. Nobody seemed the least bit interested in attending the pace, so Bolt d’Oro took up the chasing duties under Javier Castellano. The latter made a run at the leader in the lane, but there was no way he was ever going to seriously challenge the fresh, talented front runner. Justify ended up winning by three lengths, with Bolt d’Oro another 6+ lengths in front of show finisher Core Beliefs. Instilled Regard was a disappointing 4th, and with 29 Derby points, he is on the outside looking in. Justify and Bolt d’Oro are both strong contenders on the first Saturday in May.
Wood Memorial (Aqueduct, 4-7-18, 150 Final Rating)
Old Time Revival was a runaway early leader, but his goose was cooked after six panels. Enticed and Restoring Hope chased from 2nd and 3rd, and Vino Rosso was coming alive from midpack. The latter, under a full head of steam, swept to the lead while bullying and bumping with Enticed a couple of times before straightening up and cruising across the line three lengths in front. There was an inquiry and objection, but the best horse won and the stewards made the right call and allowed the result to stand. The top two were clear of the other runners at the finish, and show finisher Restoring Hope was tons best of the rest. Firenze Fireadvanced from 7th to 4th and picked up 10 Derby points. He has distance limitations but has accumulated 39 points overall, and that might be just enough to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Bravazo has left his winter base at Oaklawn Park and is bound for Churchill Downs. He will do the remainder of his pre-Derby preparations under the Twin Spires.
Lone Sailor, most recently 2nd in the LA Derby, posted his first work for the Kentucky Derby on April 11. He breezed a half-mile in 47.80 (6/30) at Churchill Downs.
Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost had his first published workout since winning that event. He worked five furlongs in 1:03.40 (4/6) at Sunland Park on April 6.
Magnum Moon capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since the beginning, and I see no reason to jump ship now. He has never run a bad race after six career starts, and two of his victories were grade one scores (Del Mar Futurity, FrontRunner Stakes). He has won dueling on the lead, pressing the pace, stalking and pouncing, and closing from the back of the pack, and that running style versatility should be a huge asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. He was never going to catch loose front runner Justify in the SA Derby, but he never stopped trying while well clear of the rest, and that should set him up perfectly for his biggest career assignment on May 5. Victor Espinoza will ride him on the first Saturday in May, and he has won the Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).
Derby Points (104)
(2) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Comments: He brings a 4-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and the win type can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He rallied from next-to-last in his flat mile maiden win at Aqueduct, and he sat in 2nd in his next two romping wins, including the Holy Bull Stakes. In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt is a strong candidate to wear the blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (110)
(3) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: The 2-year-old champ put his flat show finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes behind him with a solid outside stalk and pounce victory in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. Last year’s BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a good sign, but the Blue Grass was step in the right direction. If he is your Derby horse, you have to hope that trainer Chad Brown has purposely brought him along slowly this year, and that could very well be the case. I would not be surprised to see him peak at Churchill Downs on May 5.
Derby Points (134)
(4) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :48.65 (1/20) at Palm Beach Downs on April 7.
Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in all three wins, including a big Derby points race tally over Baffert shipper Solomini in the Rebel Stakes. His two workouts for the upcoming Arkansas Derby were both half-mile bullets, and he rates a big shot to remain unbeaten after Saturday’s showcase event at Oaklawn Park.
Derby Points (50)
(5) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)
Comments: He looked super in all three of his Santa Anita Park wins this year. He followed up a facile extended sprint debut on Feb. 18 (146 Final Rating) with a very easy score in the mud vs. four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns on March 11 (141 Final Rating). In his stakes debut in the Santa Anita Derby, he was handed a very easy lead, and cantered around the track in a sharp wire job victory over Bolt d’Oro. Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby, and Justify is a legitimate threat to end that longstanding curse. The Derby will be his fourth start in 10+ weeks, and I doubt that he walks on the front end on the first Saturday in May.
(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The $3 million purchase is a huge threat to to win the Kentucky Derby. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. Last year’s BC Juvenile Turf hero took his game to a whole new level in an 18-length romp in the UAE Derby. Will Beholder’s half-brother be able to ship from the Dubai desert to Louisville, Kentucky and run back to that stellar effort in five weeks? History is certainly not on his side, and he will probably take more money than he should, but he certainly has the speed and talent to make some serious noise at Churchill Downs.
Derby Points (100)
(7) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:13.60 (1/7) at Santa Anita on April 8.
Comments: He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity (McKinzie placed first, Instilled Regard placed 2nd) to end his 2-year-old campaign. Other than that race, he has proven to be a cut below the cream of the crop in the graded ranks. He was 2nd to romping winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split a razor sharp Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He got sick over the winter, and made his delayed 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17. In the Rebel, he battled hard throughout and ended up 2nd behind talented Pletcher trainee Magnum Moon. He will try to turn the tables on Magnum Moon in the Arkansas Derby.
Derby Points (34)
(8) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :50.20 (6/20) at Palm Beach Downs on April 6.
Comments: I have liked this one for quite some time. He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and edging Lecomte hero Instilled Regard for the show in his stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. In his final Derby prep, he added blinkers in the Louisiana Derby and came again along the inside to secure the victory over stretch runners Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack in a determined effort under John Velazquez. He began breezing for the Kentucky Derby on April 6.
Derby Points (110)
(9) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18)
Comments: After winning his first two starts at Tampa Bay in November and December last year, he made his 3-year-old debut in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and ended up a solid 3rd behind Flameaway and Catholic Boy. He added blinkers and finished a flat 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby, and had his breakout performance in the Wood Memorial. In the latter event, he sat patiently in midpack and used his stamina to defeat Enticed by three lengths. John Velazquez will ride him in the Kentucky Derby. I love his pedigree, but he seems like the type to beat half the field in the Derby, and come back and make a serious run in the Belmont Stakes.
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: He showed talent as a juvenile in a show finish in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park, and he ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, and Bravazo. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a visually impressive win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was bothered by eventual winner Vino Rosso. There was an objection and inquiry, but the best horse won, and there was no change to the original order of finish. He has talent, but I am not sure that he wants to go ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: He earned 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and in his first two starts this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd) and Gotham Stakes (finished 3rd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He is safely in the Derby with 44 points, but his numbers are going nowhere fast.
Derby Points (44)
THE NEXT NINE +: (12) Combatant - 22 points, (13) My Boy Jack - 32 points, (14) Quip - 50 points, (15) Flameaway - 70 points, (16) Lone Sailor - 40 points (17) Bravazo - 54 points, (18) Runaway Ghost - 50 points, (19) Hofburg - 40 points, (20) Gronkowski - earned berth through European road to Kentucky Derby 2018, (21) Promises Fulfilled - 50 points (22) Firenze Fire - 39 points, (23) Instilled Regard - 29 points
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