Bolt d'Oro, my top ranked Derby contender since day one, has been full of energy in his two works since the San Felipe, and looks ready to move forward in his second start as a 3-year-old.
Justify, a perfect 2-for-2 against lesser company at Santa Anita this year, will step up to face the big boys at the Great Race Place on Saturday. The highly regarded Baffert runner was originally scheduled to compete in the Arkansas Derby, but his plans changed after McKinzie was injured (more info provided below). Mike Smith has the mount.
Lecomte Stakes winner Instilled Regard, the other big name is the SA Derby, most recently finished a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Saturday’s big race will mark his first start in California since the Los Alamitos Futurity late last year. He graduated in a dirt route at Santa Anita last fall and has worked six times since his last outing in New Orleans. Noble Indy edged him for the show last time, and that runner came back to capture the Louisiana Derby last month.
A field of 14, plus one also-eligible, has been entered in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7. From the rail out: Zing Zang, Sporting Chance, California Night, Kanthaka, Quip, Marconi, Blended Citizen, Gotta Go, Tiz Mischief, Free Drop Billy, Good Magic, Flameaway, Machismo, and Arawak. The also-eligible is Determinant.
Good Magic is the 2-1 morning line favorite for the Blue Grass, and he will have to run much better than his even show finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 3. He has worked three times since that start, including a half-mile bullet in Florida on March 31. He arrived at Keeneland on April 2.
The Wood Memorial from Aqueduct is the other Derby points race on April 7, and a field of 9 or 10 is expected. As of April 3, the probable starters are Enticed, Evaluator, Firenze Fire, Heartfullofstars, King Zachary, Machismo, Old Time Revival, Restoring Hope, and Vino Rosso. American Lincoln is listed as possible. Last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes hero Enticed exits a visually impressive score in the March 10 Gotham Stakes, and he looms a solid favorite on Saturday.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 31:
Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park, 3-31-18; 158 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power dueled through a wicked opening 1/4 in 21.95, and those two were cooked after six furlongs. Since the early pace was so hot, jockey John Velazquez patiently allowed post time favorite Audible to bide him time at the back of the pack. He made a steady wide run, took over turning for home, and was three lengths to the good of Hofburg at the wire. The latter followed the winner from off the pace and was clearly best of the rest. Mississippi never left the comfort of third position in a solid stalking effort. Catholic Boy reportedly bled through his lasix and ended up 4th. He does not have enough points to compete in the Derby, and will likely get a break before resuming his career later this year. Promises Fulfilled earned enough Derby qualifying points in the Fountain of Youth to run in the Kentucky Derby if trainer Dale Romans decides to go that route.
UAE Derby (Meydan, 3-31-18)
Mendelssohn totally destroyed his competition and earned 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points in the Dubai desert on March 31. He also set a new course record for the 1-3/16th mile distance. He was always traveling smoothly up front and got stronger as the race wore on. He opened up a large lead in the lane and was at least 18-lengths in front at the wire in a breathtaking performance. Distant runner-up Rayya is expected to join Bob Baffert’s stable, and if all goes well, she will target the Kentucky Oaks. She qualified for the Kentucky Oaks with a win in the UAE Oaks at Meydan on March 1. Reride was 3rd in the UAE Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, McKinzie was forced to miss the Santa Anita Derby following a bruised hock. The injury was detected sometime after his most recent published workout on March 26. He has been ruled out of the 2018 Triple Crown Series, and is expected to resume his career later this summer for trainer Bob Baffert. In his last start, he crossed the line first over Bolt d’Oro in the San Felipe but was placed 2nd via disqualification. Last year, Baffert also lost his top Derby prospect Mastery after the San Felipe Stakes.
Gronkowski clinched the European road to the Derby series with a victory in the Burradon Stakes on March 30 at Newcastle. Based on that series, he earned a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs for trainer Jeremy Noseda. Conventional dirt will be a new challenge for the son of Lonhro. His dam sire is 2010 Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky.
Restoring Hope was first mentioned as possible for the San Felipe, followed by the Sunland Derby. He did not compete in either of those races. He breezed five furlongs in company with Solomini on April 2, and now Baffert says it’s all systems go for the Wood Memorial on April 7. Flavien Prat will ride. It seems like his sharp two turn maiden win at Santa Anita on Feb. 2 was ages ago.
Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.20 (11/77) at Santa Anita Park on April 1.
Comments: He had done little wrong in his 5-race career with four wins and a very wide 3rd in the BC Juvenile. Two of his victories were grade one tallies (Del Mar Futurity, FrontRunner Stakes), and he has won dueling on the lead, pressing the pace, stalking and pouncing, and closing from the back of the pack. His first workout for the Santa Anita Derby was a strong half-mile bullet on March 26, and his energy level was high in his most recent move on April 1.
Derby Points (64)
(2) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Comments: It has been nothing but wins following a rallying show finish in his debut last September. The win type can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He rallied from next-to-last in his flat mile maiden win at Aqueduct, and he sat in 2nd in his next two romping wins, including the Holy Bull Stakes. In the Florida Derby, the pace was hot, and he rallied from 8th place. The versatile $500,000 colt is a strong candidate to wear the blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (110)
(3) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in .48.00 (1/54) at Palm Meadows on March 31.
Comments: It is put up or shut up time for the 2-year-old champ. His flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes is looking worse by the day. Three FOY runners, including 1-2 finishers Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power, ran back in the Florida Derby. The aforementioned duo, along with Storm Runner, occupied the last three positions in the Gulfstream Park showcase on March 31. After four lifetime starts, the Chad Brown runner only has one win to his credit, and what a win that was. In his maiden victory in the BC Juvenile, he blew the doors off of quality foes Solomini and Bolt d’Oro. He will need to show much more in his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7, and he will have to overcome post 11.
Derby Points (34)
(4) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 59.80 (2/81) at Santa Anita on April 2.
Comments: Classy, consistent colt needs to prove that he can beat the top sophomore horses. He was 2nd to romping winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split a razor sharp Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity (McKinzie placed first, Instilled Regard placed 2nd). He got sick over the winter, and made his delayed 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17. In the Rebel, he battled hard throughout and ended up 2nd behind promising Pletcher trainee Magnum Moon. He was originally stated to run in the Wood Memorial on April 7, but following McKinzie’s recent injury, he will wait a week and return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.
Derby Points (34)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :48.07 (1/13) at Palm Beach Downs on March 31.
Comments: McKinzie’s recent injury and the subsequent shuffling of the Baffert deck means that he will not have to face possible monster Justify in the Arkansas Derby. Instead, he will once again square off against Baffert trainee Solomini, and he handled that rival easily in the Rebel Stakes. He might be short on experience, but the talented colt won all three of his career starts this year, and he will likely be a very short number to keep his perfect record intact at Oaklawn Park on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(6) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13.20 (2/8) at Santa Anita Park on April 2.
Comments: He was outstanding in both of his Santa Anita Park wins this year. He followed up his easy extended sprint debut on Feb. 18 with an effortless tally vs. four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He was supposed to ship to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby on April 14, but those plans changed following an injury to his talented stablemate McKinzie. Now, he will lock horns with Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, and he needs a top two finish to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
(7) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The $3 million purchase is the biggest overseas threat to win the Kentucky Derby in many years. He has seven lifetime starts with four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. Last year’s BC Juvenile Turf hero elevated his game to a whole new level in an 18-length tour de force in the UAE Derby. Will Beholder’s half-brother be able to ship from the desert to Kentucky and run back to that stellar effort in five weeks? History is certainly not on his side, and he will probably take more money than he should, but he certainly has the raw talent to make some serious noise in Louisville.
Derby Points (100)
(8) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Comments: His Derby prep race work is complete, and he will start breezing for the Kentucky Derby shortly. He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and edging graded winner Instilled Regard for the show in his stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. In his final Derby prep, he added blinkers in the Louisiana Derby and came again along the inside to secure the victory over stretch runners Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack in a determined effort under John Velazquez.
Derby Points (110)
(9) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.95 (20/43) at Palm Meadows on March 30.
Comments: Following a game show finish in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park last fall, he captured the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and that key race produced subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, and Bravazo. He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a strong win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep, and he is expected to be the favorite in that event. He already has enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, and his connections are just looking for a solid effort at Aqueduct on Saturday.
Derby Points (63)
(10) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.80 (12/33) at Gulfstream Park on March 31.
Comments: He earned 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and in his two starts this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd) and Gotham Stakes (finished 3rd). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He drew post 10 for the April 7 Blue Grass Stakes and needs to finish third or better to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He won a grade one at Keeneland in the aforementioned Breeders’ Futurity in 2017, so we know he likes the Lexington oval.
Derby Points (24)
(11) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 138 (Risen Star Stakes, FG, 2-17-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (28/70) at Santa Anita Park on March 31.
Comments: He returns to the “exceptional eleven" following the defections of Catholic Boy and McKinzie. Maybe his 4th place finish in the Risen Star was not so bad after all. Noble Indy just edged him for the show that day, and that one qualified for the Kentucky Derby with a very game victory in the Louisiana Derby on March 24. Jerry Hollendorfer’s colt finished in the top three in his first five lifetime starts including a win in the Lecomte Stakes and a 2nd in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He had plenty of options for his final Derby prep and is certainly not ducking the opposition in the Santa Anita Derby. A show finish would leave him with 39 points, and that would probably be enough to make the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 5.
Derby Points (19)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Combatant - 22 points, (13) My Boy Jack - 32 points, (14) Quip- 50 points, (15) Flameaway - 30 points, (16) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (17) Bravazo- 54 points, (18) Runaway Ghost - 50 points, (19) Hofburg - 40 points, (20) Gronkowski - earned berth through European road to Kentucky Derby 2018.
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