Road to Kentucky Derby 2024 January Report (1-30-24)

By Jarrod Horak

This is my final Kentucky Derby 2024 report for January. In this post, I will look back at the Grade 3 Lecomte and update my “Exceptional 11” Derby contenders. The Derby trail really heats up this week with four points races on Feb. 3 (Holy Bull, Robert Lewis, Southwest, Withers). 

In a major Derby development, none of Bob Baffert’s runners will be competing in the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Churchill Downs extended Baffert’s Derby ban through this year, and it was widely expected that he would transfer his top Derby hopefuls to other barns prior to Churchill’s Jan. 29 deadline. That date came and went, and none of Baffert’s runners moved to other barns. In 2022 and 2023, Baffert’s top Derby contenders moved to the Tim Yakteen shedrow. This time, owners opted to stick with Baffert in a major snub to Churchill. His runners are eligible to compete in the Preakness and Belmont.  

My list gets a major shakeup due to the Baffert situation. Three of his runners were part of my “Exceptional 11” Derby list (Nysos, Muth, Pilot Commander), and three others (Coach Prime, Imagination, Prince of Monaco) were part of my “Next Nine.” 

Bill Mott recently stated that he has fallen behind with Knightsbridge. I said last time that this colt needed to return to the worktab to remain on my list. He shows two published works this month. He went an easy half-mile in 50.20 at Payson Park on Jan. 12, and breezed 51.40 on Jan. 26. Mott wanted to have him ready for the Swale Stakes on Feb. 3 but ran out of time and was unable to make that race. They are trying to get him back in action in March. Based on all of that information, I have decided to drop him off my list.  

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Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Video Analysis at Gulfstream Park (1-27-24)

This horse racing video features analysis of the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup on 1-27-24. 

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2024 articles at Today's Racing Digest. 

Pegasus World Cup 2024 Picks at Gulfstream Park (1-27-24)

 

By Jarrod Horak

The Pegasus World Cup will be run at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, January 27, 2024, and the Grade 1 event for 4-year-olds and up has a $3 million purse. A full field of entrants will be traveling 1 1/8 miles on the main track, and the Pegasus World Cup is the final event on a 13-race program. Gulfstream Park’s Complete Digest for Jan. 27 is available now.

Pegasus World Cup 2024 Fractional Charting 

The Fractional Charting is a projection of today’s race using a representative line from each horse’s past performances. The Today’s Racing Digest handicappers identify the most representative past performance line for each horse and project how each horse will do in today’s race if they were to repeat a similar performance. Pegasus World Cup Fractional Charting:

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Road to Kentucky Oaks 2024 Report (1-24-24)

 By Jarrod Horak

The Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds was the latest road to Kentucky Oaks 2024 points race, and West Omaha stalked the pace and rolled to a sharp win, and picked up 20 points for trainer Brad Cox. In this article, I will look back at the Silverbulletday and update my “Fabulous 5” Oaks contenders. 

In other Kentucky Oaks news, the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn was supposed to be run on Jan. 27, but poor weather pushed that Oaks prep back a week to Feb. 3. The Forward Gal at Gulfstream Park is also scheduled for Feb. 3, and the Las Virgenes at Santa Anita will be run on Feb. 4. 

Kentucky Oaks 2024 Points Race Recaps

Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds (1-20-24)

Fractions – 24.63, 48.84, 1:13.70, 1:39.41, 1:43.80

Top 5 Finishers: West Omaha, Perfect Shot, Sistina Chapel, Miss Code West, Accommodate Eva

Six fillies competed in this Oaks prep at Fair Grounds. Accommodate Eva made the lead from post 2 and was pressured by Miss Code West. Perfect Shot stalked from the inside post and my top choice West Omaha stalked outside while out in the clear. West Omaha moved up under Luis Saez, and she struck the front, opened up by a length and a half, and widened in the lane to score by 5 lengths. Perfect Shot found her best stride in the lane and ended up a clear 2nd, and Sistina Chapel nipped Miss Code West for the show. Accommodate Eva weakened to 5th and Noriskit Nobiscuit trailed throughout. West Omaha has been on my Oaks list all along, and she continues to develop for Brad Cox. 

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Lecomte Stakes 2024 Video Picks: Kentucky Derby Points Race Video Series

This horse racing video features analysis of the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on 1-20-24. 

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2024 articles at Today's Racing Digest. 

Lecomte Stakes 2024 Analysis: Kentucky Derby Points Race

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 continues at Fair Grounds on Saturday, January 20, and I have included Lecomte Stakes 2024 picks below. The Grade 3 event for 3-year-olds has a $200,000 purse and the eight entrants will be journeying 1 1/16 on the main track. The Lecomte is the 13th race on Jan. 20 and the top five finishers will earn Kentucky Derby points (20-10-6-4-2). 

Lecomte Stakes 2024 Picks & Final Time Ratings

Nash may have bounced in the Gun Runner Stakes after running a hole in the wind in his dirt route maiden win at Churchill Downs on Nov. 12. He was best of the rest in 3rd in the aforementioned Gun Runner but he definitely underperformed that day. He sat a decent stalking trip behind contested fractions but could not make an impact in the lane. He has worked twice since his last start and might rebound in a big way.  

Can Group fits on class and numbers, but surface might be an issue. He landed the show in back-to-back dirt sprints at Ellis Park to begin his career, and he was never threatening the top finishers in those races. The Good Samaritan colt switched to turf and earned his diploma from off the pace in a seven panel sprint at Kentucky Downs in his third start. He stretched out and made the grade in the Bourbon (G2) at 1 1/16 miles on turf, and exits an even 4th in the BC Juvenile Turf. Mark Casse is giving him a shot to succeed on the Derby trail, and he can always go back to turf if this experiment fails. He will try to get involved from off the pace.  

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Silverbulletday Stakes 2024 Video Picks

This horse racing video features analysis of the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds on 1-20-24. 

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2024 articles at Today's Racing Digest. 

Silverbulletday Stakes 2024 Analysis

 

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Oaks 2024 continues at Fair Grounds on Saturday, January 20, and I have included Silverbulletday Stakes 2024 picks below. The non-graded event for 3-year-old fillies has a $150,000 purse and the eight entrants will be journeying a mile and seventy yards on the main track. The Silverbulletday is the 10th race on Jan. 20 and the top five finishers will earn Kentucky Oaks points (20-10-6-4-2). 

Silverbulletday Stakes 2024 Picks & Final Time Ratings

Perfect Shot finished an even 4th in her extended sprint bow, and was second best in a one-turn mile second time out. She stretched out around two turns on Nov. 25, and she chased the pace from an outer post and kicked away to graduate by 3 1/4 lengths. Shiloh’s Mistress, the runner-up from her last race, returned to break her maiden at Turfway Park on Jan. 10. This filly improved her speed ratings in all three starts under the Twin Spires, and Steve Asmussen’s $285k daughter of Gun Runner should be forwardly placed from the inside post under Joel Rosario. 

Miss Code West won all four starts at Remington Park. The Oklahoma-bred daughter of Code West captured a pair of state bred stakes races, and exits a romping victory in the mud in the Trapeze on Dec. 15. She should be all over the pace in her toughest career test.

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Kentucky Derby 2024 Contenders Video Featuring Muth & Dornoch

This horse racing video features Kentucky Derby 2024 contenders Muth & Dornoch. 

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2024 articles at Today's Racing Digest. 

Road to Kentucky Oaks 2024 Report (1-15-24)

 

By Jarrod Horak

This is my first road to Kentucky Oaks report for 2024, and I will return with another update at the end of the month. In this article, I will look back at the Santa Ynez (G3) and Busanda Stakes, and update my “Fabulous 5” Oaks contenders. The Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds on Jan. 20 is the next Kentucky Oaks prep, and the winner will receive 20 points. 

Kentucky Oaks 2024 Points Race Results

Grade 3 Santa Ynez (1-7-24) 

Fractions – 23.70, 46.55, 1:10.87, 1:23.89

Top 4 Finishers: Kopion, Don’t Bring Crazy, Tambo, Bossy Bruin Gal

Kopion was 20 cents on the dollar vs. three opponents in this extended sprint points race on the road to Kentucky Oaks 2024. The only horse on paper with a chance to upend the chalk was Tambo, but she stumbled badly at the start and lost all chance, and that left Kopion all alone on the lead. Richard Mandella’s Omaha Beach filly was on cruise control throughout under Flavien Prat, and she won by a very easy 5 3/4 lengths. Don’t Bring Crazy was clearly second best and Tambo was more than four lengths behind her. Bossy Bruin Gal brought up the rear. The final time was 1:23.89 and the winner is unbeaten and untested after two starts. 

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Busanda Stakes 2024 Video Picks

This horse racing video features analysis of the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct on 1-13-24. 

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2024 articles at Today's Racing Digest. 

Busanda Stakes 2024 Analysis

 

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Oaks 2024 continues at Aqueduct Racetrack on Saturday, January 13, and I have included Busanda Stakes 2024 picks below. The non-graded event for 3-year-old fillies has a $100,000 purse and the five entrants will be journeying 1 1/8 miles on the main track. The Busanda is the 6th race on Jan. 13 and the top five finishers will earn Kentucky Oaks points (20-10-6-4-2). 

Busanda Stakes 2024 Picks & Final Time Ratings

Gin Gin improved her Digest Final Time Ratings in her first three starts, and stubbed her toe at 13-1 odds in the Golden Rod (G2) on Nov. 25. Brad Cox’s filly figures to save ground stalking the pace, but the inside post has not been the place to be at this distance at the current Aqueduct meet. 

Shimmering Allure looked good rallying for the win in the local Tempted at one mile on Nov. 5. She rallied wide and landed the place behind front running favorite Life Talk in the Grade 2 Demoiselle in the mud on Dec. 2. She caught a speed favoring oval last time and ran a quality race. Ken McPeek’s Enticed filly might be the one to beat. 

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Kentucky Derby 2024 Report 1-10-24

 

By Jarrod Horak

The is my first Kentucky Derby 2024 report of the new year. In this article, I will look back at the Smarty Jones and Jerome, and update my “Exceptional 11” Derby contenders. The Lecomte at Fair Grounds on Jan. 20 is the next Kentucky Derby prep, and the winner will receive 20 points.  

Kentucky Derby 2024 Points Race Results

Smarty Jones – Jan. 1 (Oaklawn)

Fractions: 23.02, 47.01, 1:12.20, 1:38.34, 1:44.59

Top 5 Finishers: Catching Freedom, Just Steel, Informed Patriot, Gettysburg Address, Mystik Dan

Just Steel was the morning line favorite but bettors flocked to Catching Freedom in this 1 1/16 miles Derby prep. The pace was honest with Lagynos showing the way and Mystic Dan and Just Steel chasing. Catching Freedom was patiently handled under Cristian Torres, and Brad Cox’s Constitution colt moved up while racing wide, straightened out in the stretch, and pulled clear to win by 2 1/2 lengths. Just Steel stalked, gained a short advantage in the lane, and dug in to hold the place over Informed Patriot and Gettysburg Address. The latter was my top choice under Flavien Prat, and he was last early after a troubled beginning. He was grinding away from off the pace and found his best stride late, and probably would have finished 2nd with a better start and trip. Catching Freedom acts like he will handle more ground, and Gettysburg Address probably deserves another chance.  

Jerome – Jan. 6 (Aqueduct)

Fractions: 24.50, 49.06, 1:14.92, 1:28.40, 1:41.91

Top 5 Finishers: Drum Roll Please, El Grande O, Khanate, Regalo, Sweet Soddy J

Drum Roll Please made this one look easy. The track was fast and El Grande O dueled with Regalo through the opening quarter, and Khanate took up the chase after that. El Grande O was able to grab a short lead in the stretch but Drum Roll Please represented a fresh challenge, and Brad Cox’s Hard Spun colt rallied wide and scored by 3 3/4 lengths under Javier Castellano. El Grande O was clearly second best, and Khanate was best of the rest in third. This was not a fast race. 

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Santa Ynez Stakes 2024 Video Picks

This horse racing video features analysis of the Santa Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita Park on 1-7-24. 

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2024 articles at Today's Racing Digest. 

Santa Ynez Stakes 2024 Analysis

 

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Oaks 2024 continues at Santa Anita Park on Sunday, January 7, and I have included Santa Ynez 2024 picks below. The Grade 3 event for 3-year-old fillies has a $100,000 purse and the five entrants will be journeying seven panels on the main track. The Santa Ynez is the 8th race on Jan. 7 and the top five finishers will earn Kentucky Oaks points (10-5-3-2-1). 

Santa Ynez Stakes 2024 Picks & Final Time Ratings

Kopion was visually impressive at 30 cents on the dollar in her 6 1/2 furlong bow at Del Mar on Nov. 26. She stalked slow fractions and impressively kicked away in a 3 3/4 length victory under Flavien Prat. Richard Mandella’s $270k Omaha Beach filly has worked four times at Santa Anita since her debut including a nice drill on Dec. 25.

Tambo graduated in an $80k maiden claiming affair second time out, and she placed in her last two stakes starts. Nothing Like You nipped her by a nose in the Desi Arnaz at this trip last time and that Bob Baffert runner clicked right back in the Grade 2 Starlet at Los Alamitos Race Course on Dec. 9. Antonio Fresu sticks with Peter Eurton’s Enticed filly and she should be all over the pace. 

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San Vicente Stakes 2024 Video Picks at Santa Anita Park

This horse racing video features analysis of the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita Park on 1-6-24. 

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2024 articles at Today's Racing Digest. 

Jerome Stakes 2024 Video

This horse racing video features analysis of the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on 1-6-24. 

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2024 articles at Today's Racing Digest. 

Jerome Stakes 2024 Analysis

 

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 continues at Aqueduct on Saturday, January 5, and I have included Jerome Stakes 2024 picks below. The non-graded event for 3-year-olds has a $150,000 purse and the five entrants will be traveling a flat mile on the main track. The Jerome is the 3rd race on Jan. 5 and the top five finishers will earn Kentucky Derby points (10-5-3-2-1). 

Jerome Stakes 2024 Picks & Final Time Ratings

Drum Roll Please ran into Locked at Saratoga at this distance second time out Sept. 1, and he was 13 lengths clear of the show finisher. He stalked and graduated at this course and distance on Oct. 6, and stretched out to 1 1/8 miles and was a clear show finisher as my 8-1 top choice in the Grade 2 Remsen on Dec. 2. That Derby points race was in the mud and 7 of the 10 races that day were taken in wire-to-wire fashion. This Hard Spun colt rallied wide and lost ground late in the solid effort. He seems to hold all of the aces in this spot. 

Khanate is one of multiple runners with early-pressing speed. He romped by 10 lengths in his Keeneland maiden win at seven panels on Oct. 11, and dueled and weakened in a dirt route at Churchill on Nov. 9. 

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Smarty Jones Stakes 2024 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 continues at Oaklawn on Monday, January 1, and I have included Smarty Jones Stakes 2024 picks below. The non-graded event for 3-year-olds has a $300,000 purse and the nine entrants will be traveling 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The Smarty Jones is the 9th race on New Year’s Day and the top five finishers will earn Kentucky Derby points (10-5-3-2-1). 

Smarty Jones Stakes 2024 Picks & Final Time Ratings

Catching Freedom was sharp from off the pace as the favorite in his flat mile bow at Churchill Downs on Oct. 1. He was the chalk again in a two turn race under the Twin Spires Nov. 9, and he ended up an okay 4th of 10 that day (Lagynos 3rd). This $575k Constitution colt still has upside. 

Lagynos stalked and pounced in both of his wins, and he projects a similar trip in this spot. He handled two turns in an optional-claiming victory at Churchill on Nov. 25. 

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