Ashland Stakes video analysis at Keeneland (4-3-26). This is a Kentucky Oaks 2026 points race. Road to Kentucky Oaks 2026 video record (28 13-5-5).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Thursday, April 2, 2026
Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Kentucky Derby 2026 Video Report (3-29-26)
In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I share my Exceptional 11 Derby contenders (3-29-26).
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my channel. Road to Derby video record (33 13-4-6).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Road to Kentucky Derby 2026 Report (3-29-26)
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 33 points races, my top choices have 13 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 6 show finishes. The road to the Derby continues with Blue Grass (G1), SA Derby (G1), and Wood Memorial (G2) on April 4.
Wood Memorial field (race 12): 1 – Napoleon Solo, 2 – Talk to Me Jimmy, 3 – Right to Party, 4 – Steel, 5 – Ocelli, 6 – Minorinconvenience, 7 – Albus, 8 – Courting, 9 – Bravaro, 10 – Red Zone Runner, 11 – Ottinho, 12 – Buetane, 13 – Iron Honor.
My longtime top ranked Derby contender Paladin was injured after a workout in Florida on March 28 and is off the Triple Crown trail. He suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture of his right front ankle and will need surgery. Two screws will be inserted and he will miss all of the big targets this summer and fall.
More bad news for Chad Brown. Tampa Bay Derby (G3) show finisher Canaletto is injured and out of action until fall.
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps
Grade 2 UAE Derby at Meydan (3-28-26): This one was cut and dry. Six Speed controlled the pace and had a clear lead. Wonder Dean emerged from the pack and came after the leader, and he had more stamina in the stretch and won by 2 1/2 lengths. Six Speed was clearly second best and my top choice Pyromancer never had a chance. He raced wide throughout and was best of the rest in third. The winner and runner-up might travel to Louisville to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Read more at The Runaway Horse
Monday, March 30, 2026
Kentucky Oaks 2026 Video Update (3-28-26)
In this Kentucky Oaks 2026 video, I share my updated Fabulous 5 Oaks contenders (3-15-26).
I cover all of the Kentucky Oaks prep races, and through the first 28 points races, my top choices have 13 wins, 5 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Road to Kentucky Oaks 2026 Report (3-28-26)
I cover all of the Kentucky Oaks points race on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and through 28 points races, my top choices have 13 wins, 5 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The next Kentucky Oaks points race is the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland on Friday, April 3. The Gazelle Stakes and Santa Anita Oaks are the final two Oaks points races on Saturday, April 4.
Kentucky Oaks 2026 Points Race Recaps
Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn (3-27-26): Even money favorite Explora spiked a temperature and scratched, and that left a field of five. 41-1 longshot Empath set the pace as expected and her stablemate Counting Stars ($3.80) chased from second, took over, and cruised home by 5 1/2 lengths (92 BSF). Search Party rallied for the place and she was 9 1/2 lengths in front of clear show finisher Taken by the Wind. Sticker Shock was a disappointing fourth and Empath retreated to last. Francisco Arrieta rode the winner and Mark Casse saddled the winner and place finisher. Fractions: 24.07, 48.69, 1:13.68, 1:38.22, 1:44.47.
Read more at The Runaway Horse
Friday, March 27, 2026
Florida Derby 2026 Analysis (3-28-26)
Using the Digest past performances, I’m breaking down the field and identifying key speed figure patterns.
Field Overview & Early Pace Thoughts
The scratch of Redland Rebels (#5) removes a key speed influence, which could significantly impact the race shape. That potentially leaves horses like Nearly, Wayne’s Law, and possibly Albus to contest or control the early tempo.
This race may favor tactical runners—those capable of sitting just off the pace and making the first decisive move turning for home.
Contender Breakdown
1 – Albus (20-1)
Improved sharply last out with a 123 rating at Tampa Bay, but he loses Lasix and steps way up in class. He’ll need another big leap forward.
My Betting Takeaway: Inside draw helps, but class test is steep.
2 – Chief Wallabee (2-1)
Lightly raced with major upside. His 140 Final Time Rating and strong tactical pace numbers make him dangerous. The concern is whether two tough races in quick succession take a toll.
Bettor’s Edge: His 143 pace rating suggests he’ll get first run on deep closers—always a major advantage at Gulfstream.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Arkansas Derby 2026 Analysis (3-28-26)
From a pace perspective, Redland Rebels figures to be aggressive from the rail, with Litmus Test likely sitting just off the pace from the outside. The rest of the field features stalkers and closers who should benefit if the tempo gets honest early.
7 – Napoleon Solo will not run in this spot. He has been rerouted to the Wood Memorial.
Past Performances Breakdown (Using Today’s Racing Digest)
If you’re playing this race seriously, I highly recommend reviewing the Complete Digest, which provides key metrics like Final Time Ratings and Fire Numbers that I rely on heavily.
1 – Redland Rebels (15-1)
- Improving early in career, especially on turf
- Peak 143 Final Time Rating came on grass
- Faded in Tampa Bay Derby after setting the pace
Takeaway: Likely pace presence, but questionable at this level on dirt.
2 – Silent Tactic (5-2)
- Ultra-consistent closer
- 150 Final Time Rating (Southwest Stakes win)
- Narrow loss in Rebel Stakes after pressing pace
Takeaway: Dangerous late runner with proven numbers.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Gulfstream Park Oaks Video Picks (3-28-26)
Gulfstream Park Oaks video analysis at Gulfstream Park (3-28-26). This is a Kentucky Oaks 2026 points race. Road to Kentucky Oaks 2026 video record (27 12-5-5).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Fantasy Stakes 2026 Analysis (3-27-26)
The Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park is the next Kentucky Oaks prep race on the calendar. With a $1 million purse and 200 total Oaks qualifying points on the line, this mile-and-a-sixteenth test for three-year-old fillies drew a compact field of six headed by even money favorite Explora.
I broke down the field using the Digest past performances, focusing on pace, final time ratings, and projected race shape. Here’s how I see this race unfolding.
Field Overview & Pace Projection
This race sets up with a clear tactical structure. Empath figures to show early speed stretching out, while Explora should sit just off the pace from the outside. Horses like Counting Stars and Sticker Shock will look to capitalize late if the pace softens.
Key Pace Influencers
- Empath (Post 2): Likely pacesetter stretching out from sprint company
- Explora (Post 6): Ideal pressing trip outside
- Sticker Shock (Post 5): Tactical and versatile
Contender Breakdown
1 – Search Party (6-1)
Search Party benefits from the rail and should save ground throughout. She received a 140 Final Time Rating for her win in the Martha Washington in February but that was not a productive race, and her 125 in the Honeybee is probably more indicative of her true ability.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Kentucky Derby 2026 Video Update (3-23-26)
In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I share my Exceptional 11 Derby contenders (3-23-26).
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my channel. Road to Derby video record (30 12-4-5).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Road to Kentucky Derby 2026 Report (3-23-26)
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 30 points races, my top choices have 12 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The road to the Derby continues with the Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 28.
Florida Derby field (race 14): 1 – Albus, 2 – Chief Wallabee, 3 – Wayne’s Law, 4 – Commandment, 5 – Redland Rebels, 6 – Nearly, 7 – Timeless Victory, 8 – The Puma, 9 – Gregarious.
Arkansas Derby field (race 13): 1 – Redland Rebels (15-1), 2 – Silent Tactic (5-2), 3 – Blackout Time (6-1), 4 – Bricklin (20-1), 5 – Taptastic (20-1), 6 – Renegade (3-2), 7 – Napoleon Solo (6-1), 8 – Exosome (20-1), 9 – Litmus Test (5-1).
Napoleon Solo will not run in the Arkansas Derby. He is being rerouted to the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct on April 4.
Redland Rebels is entered in the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, and he is expected to run in the latter event. He was fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby in his last start.
Bricklin is entered in the Hot Springs Stakes on March 26 and the Arkansas Derby on March 28, and he is expected to run in the latter event. He was third in the Sunland Derby in his last start.
Read more at The Runaway Horse
Monday, March 23, 2026
Santa Anita Park Weekly Report (March 20-22)
Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at 5.5f on dirt. On the turf course, a 2-1 stalker graduated in the 6f opener, a 7-2 front runner earned his diploma at one mile, and a 4-1 front runner tallied at 6f (rail at 30 feet).
Riding doubles for Armando Ayuso (dirt) and Antonio Fresu (turf sprints).
The $2 Pick 6 pool was $49,315 and tickets with six winners paid $3,293.20. The 5 out of 6 consolation prize was $62.80.
March 20 Claims: Race 7 – Known idea ($20k, George Papaprodromou), One Smokin Dude ($20k, Librado Barocio).
Santa Anita Full Card Highlights for Friday (3-20-26)
SA 1 Rethink/Ou La La/Prestige Fungson Trifecta (SA Best Bet, $107.80)
SA 3 Call Me Cory/Let’s Be Frank Exacta ($23.80), Trifecta ($59.40)
SA 7 UNCLE CHILLY ($5.00)
Double (races 6-7, $22.60)
Pick 3 (races 5-7, $83.40)
$5 Late Double (races 7-8, $93.00)
*Full card highlights based on $2 wagers unless otherwise noted.
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Santa Anita Recap for Saturday (3-21-26)
Fast main track and firm turf course. Three front running winners on dirt (8f, 6f, 6f). On the turf course, a closing favorite graduated in the 9f opener, a 3-1 front runner scored at one mile, strong favorite Grand Slam Smile wired the field from the inside post as the favorite in the Irish O’Brien at 6.5f on the downhill course, and 3-1 closer Gold Phoenix won the San Luis Rey (G3) at a mile and a half.
Riding doubles for Antonio Fresu and Tiago Pereira (routes). Phil D’Amato saddled two turf route winners.
Santa Anita Stakes Recaps for 3-21-26
Irish O’Brien (6.5T hillside): Two runners were declared non-starters (Prancingthruparis, Miss Practical). The former popped the gate and had an unfair advantage, and the latter was not awarded a fair start. Grand Slam Smile ($2.20) made short work of this group from the inside post. She wired the field by 2 1/4 lengths under William Antongeorgi. Take Another Card was second best. Prancingthruparis (non-starter) crossed the line in third and Young Love was another nose back in fourth. Sean McCarthy saddled the popular winner. Fractions: 22.10, 44.29, 1:06.95, 1:12.91.
Read more at The Runaway Horse
Kentucky Oaks 2026 Video Update (3-22-26)
In this Kentucky Oaks 2026 video, I share my updated Fabulous 5 Oaks contenders (3-15-26).
I cover all of the Kentucky Oaks prep races, and through the first 27 points races, my top choices have 12 wins, 5 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The next Kentucky Oaks points race is the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn on Friday, March 27 and the winner will receive 100 Oaks points. The Gulfstream Park Oaks will be run on Saturday, March 28 and the winner gets 100 points.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Kentucky Oaks 2026 Report (3-22-26)
I cover all of the Kentucky Oaks points race on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and through the first 27 points races, my top choices have 12 wins, 5 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The next Kentucky Oaks points race is the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn on Friday, March 27 and Explora is the even money favorite. The Gulfstream Park Oaks will be run on March 28 and Davona Dale winner She Be Smooth will probably go favored.
Fantasy Stakes field (race 11): 1 – Search Party (6-1), 2 – Empath (30-1), 3 – Counting Stars (5-2), 4 – Taken by the Wind (15-1), 5 – Sticker Shock (3-1), 6 – Explora (1-1).
Gulfstream Park Oaks field (race 9): 1 – Betty’s Pearl, 2 – My Miss Mo, 3 – Nasti Z, 4 – Just Singing, 5 – Prom Queen, 6 – She Be Smooth, 7 – Haute Diva.
Kentucky Oaks 2026 Points Race Recaps
Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds (3-21-26): 19-1 longshot Maximum Offer had a slim early advantage and race favorite Bella Ballerina pressed from second. The latter got to the front around the far turn and heading into the stretch, but Life of Joy ($9.40) made a wide move from off the pace turning for home and had all the momentum, and she won by 3 3/4 lengths (86 BSF). Bella Ballerina never stopped trying and was clearly second best, and Luv Your Neighbor weakened in the lane and held the show by a half-length over closer Newtown Pike. Maximum Offer weakened to 5th and Love and Trust and Miss Metoyer trailed. Flavien Prat rode the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 23.24, 46.83, 1:11.10, 1:35.85, 1:42.47.
Read more at The Runaway Horse
Saturday, March 21, 2026
Jeff Ruby Steaks 2026 Analysis (3-21-26)
Using the past performances from Today’s Racing Digest, I’ve evaluated each runner’s form, speed figures, and projected race shape to identify the top contenders.
Field Overview & Key Handicapping Factors
This race presents two major handicapping questions:
- Surface transition: Several runners are switching from turf or dirt to synthetic.
- Distance stretch: The move to 1 1/8 miles is a hurdle for multiple contenders.
With a likely honest pace scenario, I’m focusing on runners who can finish strongly while already proving themselves on this surface or at similar distances.
Top Contenders
#1 Turf Star – Sleeper with Upside
Turf Star is a bit under the radar but has back class, including a 135 rating in a Grade 2 effort. Adding blinkers for a trainer who hits at 30% with the move makes him intriguing.
He could save ground and work out a perfect trip behind the leaders.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Louisiana Derby 2026 Video Analysis (3-21-26)
Louisiana Derby video analysis at the Fair Grounds (3-21-26). This is a Kentucky Derby 2026 points race. Road to Kentucky Derby 2026 video record (28 10-4-5).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Bourbonette Oaks 2026 Analysis (3-21-26)
This is one of the more intriguing Kentucky Oaks prep races on the calendar, and the 2026 Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park shapes up as a wide-open betting race. With a $300,000 purse, Oaks points on the line, and a full field of developing three-year-old fillies, this mile-and-a-sixteenth test on the synthetic surface demands a sharp read on pace, progression, and surface suitability.
I’ve been tracking these Oaks preps closely, and this race presents a great opportunity to find value—especially with several runners trying something new, whether it’s surface, distance, or class level.
Race Overview: Pace & Setup
The key to this race starts with the pace—and more specifically, whether Resplendence can get away with another easy lead.
She’s controlled the tempo in back-to-back Turfway routes, but the numbers tell a deeper story. Her pace rating dropped significantly last time, allowing her to “walk the dog” on the front end. That scenario feels unlikely to repeat here with more tactical speed drawn nearby.
Horses like Resist and possibly Blazing Brat should ensure a more honest tempo. If that happens, the race could tilt toward stalkers and closers—especially those proven on synthetic.
Meet the field
1. Resplendence (5-1)
Her chances hinge entirely on the early pace. If she gets loose again, she’s dangerous. If not, she’s vulnerable.
2. Resist (12-1)
She’s better than she looks on paper. Toss the wide post trip last time—this inside draw should allow a more efficient stalking trip. If she rebounds to her earlier figures, she can hit the board.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest.
Friday, March 20, 2026
Fair Grounds Oaks 2026 Analysis (3-21-26)
The Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks is one of the most important final stepping-stone races on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. Run at 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds Race Course on Louisiana Derby Day, the race brings together a competitive group of three-year-old fillies chasing valuable Kentucky Oaks qualifying points.
Using the past performances from Today’s Racing Digest, I’ll break down the field, evaluate the pace scenario, and rank the contenders.
Meet the Field
The Fair Grounds Oaks drew a compact but competitive group of seven fillies. Several arrive from key prep races while others attempt to prove they belong at the graded stakes level.
1. Miss Metoyer
This filly improved dramatically when winning by 13 lengths at Delta Downs last time with a 129 final time rating. However, all of her victories have come at Delta Downs, and stepping up in class while stretching out against graded stakes company is a major challenge.
She could impact the early pace from the rail, but it’s difficult to project her carrying that speed against this caliber of competition.
2. Newtown Pike
This filly has steadily improved for trainer Lindsay Schultz, with final time ratings climbing from 101 to 120 and then 138 in the Martha Washington Stakes at Oaklawn.
While the upward trajectory is encouraging, the strength of that Oaklawn prep is questionable. Several runners from the race have yet to return with strong follow-up performances.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Tuesday, March 17, 2026
Santa Anita Park Handicapping Report (March 13-15)
Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at one mile on dirt. On the turf course, a front running favorite won the 9f opener, a stalking favorite graduated at 6f, a stalking favorite tallied at 6.5f, and a 9-1 stalker earned his diploma in the flat mile finale (rail at 30 feet).
Hat trick for Emisael Jaramillo (2 turf wins). Doug O’Neill saddled three winners and Jaramillo rode two. Mark Glatt saddled two turf winners.
The $2 Pick 6 pool was $64,168 and tickets with six winners paid $11,427.00. The 5 out of 6 consolation prize was $170.60.
March 13 Claims: Race 1 – Geometry ($30k, Tim McCanna). Race 2 – Stage Run ($12.5k, Tim McCanna). Race 5 – Julia Street ($20k, Steve Knapp). Race 6 – Candy Bar ($25k, George Papaprodromou), Headed for Om ($25k, Tim Yakteen), Shangrilama ($25k, George Papaprodromou). Race 8 – Broadway Unions ($10k, Marcia Stortz).
Santa Anita Full Card Highlights for Friday (3-13-26)
SA 1 GEOMETRY ($3.60)
SA 2 Irish Element/Next Trick/Stage Run Trifecta ($44.80)
Double (races 1-2, $10.40)
Pick 3 (races 1-3, $79.00)
SA 4 COSMO FRIDAY ($5.60)
Double (races 3-4, $108.60)
Pick 3 (races 2-4, $100.00)
SA 5 GOOD GOLLY DOLLY ($4.00), Trifecta ($41.00)
Double (races 4-5, $17.00)
Pick 3 (races 3-5, $240.80)
Early Pick 4 (races 2-5, $448.60)
Early Pick 5 (races 1-5, $993.40)
Double (races 5-6, $7.60)
Pick 3 (races 4-6, $29.20)
Pick 3 (races 5-7, $127.60)
SA 8 Hey Brother/Broadway Unions Exacta ($36.80)
*Full card highlights based on $2 wagers unless otherwise noted.
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Santa Anita Recap for Saturday (3-14-26)
Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at six panels on dirt. On the turf course, a stalking favorite won the 6f opener, 5-2 presser Sumter captured the San Simeon (G3) at 6.5f on the downhill course, a 3-1 midpack stalker scored at 6f, a 5-1 stalker tallied at one mile, and a 4-1 front runner earned her diploma in the 6f finale.
Read more at The Runaway Horse
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