Check out my Santa Anita Derby 2018 video for Today's Racing Digest.
Friday, April 6, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Bolt d'Oro versus Justify in Santa Anita Derby
Bolt d’Oro completes his road to Kentucky Derby 2018 prep race schedule in the Santa Anita Derby on Saturday, April 7.
Bolt d'Oro, my top ranked Derby contender since day one, has been full of energy in his two works since the San Felipe, and looks ready to move forward in his second start as a 3-year-old.
Justify, a perfect 2-for-2 against lesser company at Santa Anita this year, will step up to face the big boys at the Great Race Place on Saturday. The highly regarded Baffert runner was originally scheduled to compete in the Arkansas Derby, but his plans changed after McKinzie was injured (more info provided below). Mike Smith has the mount.
Lecomte Stakes winner Instilled Regard, the other big name is the SA Derby, most recently finished a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Saturday’s big race will mark his first start in California since the Los Alamitos Futurity late last year. He graduated in a dirt route at Santa Anita last fall and has worked six times since his last outing in New Orleans. Noble Indy edged him for the show last time, and that runner came back to capture the Louisiana Derby last month.
A field of 14, plus one also-eligible, has been entered in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7. From the rail out: Zing Zang, Sporting Chance, California Night, Kanthaka, Quip, Marconi, Blended Citizen, Gotta Go, Tiz Mischief, Free Drop Billy, Good Magic, Flameaway, Machismo, and Arawak. The also-eligible is Determinant.
Good Magic is the 2-1 morning line favorite for the Blue Grass, and he will have to run much better than his even show finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 3. He has worked three times since that start, including a half-mile bullet in Florida on March 31. He arrived at Keeneland on April 2.
The Wood Memorial from Aqueduct is the other Derby points race on April 7, and a field of 9 or 10 is expected. As of April 3, the probable starters are Enticed, Evaluator, Firenze Fire, Heartfullofstars, King Zachary, Machismo, Old Time Revival, Restoring Hope, and Vino Rosso. American Lincoln is listed as possible. Last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes hero Enticed exits a visually impressive score in the March 10 Gotham Stakes, and he looms a solid favorite on Saturday.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 31:
Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park, 3-31-18; 158 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power dueled through a wicked opening 1/4 in 21.95, and those two were cooked after six furlongs. Since the early pace was so hot, jockey John Velazquez patiently allowed post time favorite Audible to bide him time at the back of the pack. He made a steady wide run, took over turning for home, and was three lengths to the good of Hofburg at the wire. The latter followed the winner from off the pace and was clearly best of the rest. Mississippi never left the comfort of third position in a solid stalking effort. Catholic Boy reportedly bled through his lasix and ended up 4th. He does not have enough points to compete in the Derby, and will likely get a break before resuming his career later this year. Promises Fulfilled earned enough Derby qualifying points in the Fountain of Youth to run in the Kentucky Derby if trainer Dale Romans decides to go that route.
UAE Derby (Meydan, 3-31-18)
Mendelssohn totally destroyed his competition and earned 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points in the Dubai desert on March 31. He also set a new course record for the 1-3/16th mile distance. He was always traveling smoothly up front and got stronger as the race wore on. He opened up a large lead in the lane and was at least 18-lengths in front at the wire in a breathtaking performance. Distant runner-up Rayya is expected to join Bob Baffert’s stable, and if all goes well, she will target the Kentucky Oaks. She qualified for the Kentucky Oaks with a win in the UAE Oaks at Meydan on March 1. Reride was 3rd in the UAE Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, McKinzie was forced to miss the Santa Anita Derby following a bruised hock. The injury was detected sometime after his most recent published workout on March 26. He has been ruled out of the 2018 Triple Crown Series, and is expected to resume his career later this summer for trainer Bob Baffert. In his last start, he crossed the line first over Bolt d’Oro in the San Felipe but was placed 2nd via disqualification. Last year, Baffert also lost his top Derby prospect Mastery after the San Felipe Stakes.
Gronkowski clinched the European road to the Derby series with a victory in the Burradon Stakes on March 30 at Newcastle. Based on that series, he earned a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs for trainer Jeremy Noseda. Conventional dirt will be a new challenge for the son of Lonhro. His dam sire is 2010 Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky.
Restoring Hope was first mentioned as possible for the San Felipe, followed by the Sunland Derby. He did not compete in either of those races. He breezed five furlongs in company with Solomini on April 2, and now Baffert says it’s all systems go for the Wood Memorial on April 7. Flavien Prat will ride. It seems like his sharp two turn maiden win at Santa Anita on Feb. 2 was ages ago.
Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.20 (11/77) at Santa Anita Park on April 1.
Comments: He had done little wrong in his 5-race career with four wins and a very wide 3rd in the BC Juvenile. Two of his victories were grade one tallies (Del Mar Futurity, FrontRunner Stakes), and he has won dueling on the lead, pressing the pace, stalking and pouncing, and closing from the back of the pack. His first workout for the Santa Anita Derby was a strong half-mile bullet on March 26, and his energy level was high in his most recent move on April 1.
Derby Points (64)
(2) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Comments: It has been nothing but wins following a rallying show finish in his debut last September. The win type can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He rallied from next-to-last in his flat mile maiden win at Aqueduct, and he sat in 2nd in his next two romping wins, including the Holy Bull Stakes. In the Florida Derby, the pace was hot, and he rallied from 8th place. The versatile $500,000 colt is a strong candidate to wear the blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (110)
(3) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in .48.00 (1/54) at Palm Meadows on March 31.
Comments: It is put up or shut up time for the 2-year-old champ. His flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes is looking worse by the day. Three FOY runners, including 1-2 finishers Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power, ran back in the Florida Derby. The aforementioned duo, along with Storm Runner, occupied the last three positions in the Gulfstream Park showcase on March 31. After four lifetime starts, the Chad Brown runner only has one win to his credit, and what a win that was. In his maiden victory in the BC Juvenile, he blew the doors off of quality foes Solomini and Bolt d’Oro. He will need to show much more in his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7, and he will have to overcome post 11.
Derby Points (34)
(4) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 59.80 (2/81) at Santa Anita on April 2.
Comments: Classy, consistent colt needs to prove that he can beat the top sophomore horses. He was 2nd to romping winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split a razor sharp Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity (McKinzie placed first, Instilled Regard placed 2nd). He got sick over the winter, and made his delayed 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17. In the Rebel, he battled hard throughout and ended up 2nd behind promising Pletcher trainee Magnum Moon. He was originally stated to run in the Wood Memorial on April 7, but following McKinzie’s recent injury, he will wait a week and return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.
Derby Points (34)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :48.07 (1/13) at Palm Beach Downs on March 31.
Comments: McKinzie’s recent injury and the subsequent shuffling of the Baffert deck means that he will not have to face possible monster Justify in the Arkansas Derby. Instead, he will once again square off against Baffert trainee Solomini, and he handled that rival easily in the Rebel Stakes. He might be short on experience, but the talented colt won all three of his career starts this year, and he will likely be a very short number to keep his perfect record intact at Oaklawn Park on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(6) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13.20 (2/8) at Santa Anita Park on April 2.
Comments: He was outstanding in both of his Santa Anita Park wins this year. He followed up his easy extended sprint debut on Feb. 18 with an effortless tally vs. four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He was supposed to ship to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby on April 14, but those plans changed following an injury to his talented stablemate McKinzie. Now, he will lock horns with Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, and he needs a top two finish to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
(7) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The $3 million purchase is the biggest overseas threat to win the Kentucky Derby in many years. He has seven lifetime starts with four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. Last year’s BC Juvenile Turf hero elevated his game to a whole new level in an 18-length tour de force in the UAE Derby. Will Beholder’s half-brother be able to ship from the desert to Kentucky and run back to that stellar effort in five weeks? History is certainly not on his side, and he will probably take more money than he should, but he certainly has the raw talent to make some serious noise in Louisville.
Derby Points (100)
(8) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Comments: His Derby prep race work is complete, and he will start breezing for the Kentucky Derby shortly. He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and edging graded winner Instilled Regard for the show in his stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. In his final Derby prep, he added blinkers in the Louisiana Derby and came again along the inside to secure the victory over stretch runners Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack in a determined effort under John Velazquez.
Derby Points (110)
(9) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.95 (20/43) at Palm Meadows on March 30.
Comments: Following a game show finish in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park last fall, he captured the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and that key race produced subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, and Bravazo. He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a strong win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep, and he is expected to be the favorite in that event. He already has enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, and his connections are just looking for a solid effort at Aqueduct on Saturday.
Derby Points (63)
(10) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.80 (12/33) at Gulfstream Park on March 31.
Comments: He earned 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and in his two starts this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd) and Gotham Stakes (finished 3rd). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He drew post 10 for the April 7 Blue Grass Stakes and needs to finish third or better to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He won a grade one at Keeneland in the aforementioned Breeders’ Futurity in 2017, so we know he likes the Lexington oval.
Derby Points (24)
(11) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 138 (Risen Star Stakes, FG, 2-17-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (28/70) at Santa Anita Park on March 31.
Comments: He returns to the “exceptional eleven" following the defections of Catholic Boy and McKinzie. Maybe his 4th place finish in the Risen Star was not so bad after all. Noble Indy just edged him for the show that day, and that one qualified for the Kentucky Derby with a very game victory in the Louisiana Derby on March 24. Jerry Hollendorfer’s colt finished in the top three in his first five lifetime starts including a win in the Lecomte Stakes and a 2nd in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He had plenty of options for his final Derby prep and is certainly not ducking the opposition in the Santa Anita Derby. A show finish would leave him with 39 points, and that would probably be enough to make the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 5.
Derby Points (19)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Combatant - 22 points, (13) My Boy Jack - 32 points, (14) Quip- 50 points, (15) Flameaway - 30 points, (16) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (17) Bravazo- 54 points, (18) Runaway Ghost - 50 points, (19) Hofburg - 40 points, (20) Gronkowski - earned berth through European road to Kentucky Derby 2018.
Bolt d'Oro, my top ranked Derby contender since day one, has been full of energy in his two works since the San Felipe, and looks ready to move forward in his second start as a 3-year-old.
Justify, a perfect 2-for-2 against lesser company at Santa Anita this year, will step up to face the big boys at the Great Race Place on Saturday. The highly regarded Baffert runner was originally scheduled to compete in the Arkansas Derby, but his plans changed after McKinzie was injured (more info provided below). Mike Smith has the mount.
Lecomte Stakes winner Instilled Regard, the other big name is the SA Derby, most recently finished a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. Saturday’s big race will mark his first start in California since the Los Alamitos Futurity late last year. He graduated in a dirt route at Santa Anita last fall and has worked six times since his last outing in New Orleans. Noble Indy edged him for the show last time, and that runner came back to capture the Louisiana Derby last month.
A field of 14, plus one also-eligible, has been entered in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7. From the rail out: Zing Zang, Sporting Chance, California Night, Kanthaka, Quip, Marconi, Blended Citizen, Gotta Go, Tiz Mischief, Free Drop Billy, Good Magic, Flameaway, Machismo, and Arawak. The also-eligible is Determinant.
Good Magic is the 2-1 morning line favorite for the Blue Grass, and he will have to run much better than his even show finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 3. He has worked three times since that start, including a half-mile bullet in Florida on March 31. He arrived at Keeneland on April 2.
The Wood Memorial from Aqueduct is the other Derby points race on April 7, and a field of 9 or 10 is expected. As of April 3, the probable starters are Enticed, Evaluator, Firenze Fire, Heartfullofstars, King Zachary, Machismo, Old Time Revival, Restoring Hope, and Vino Rosso. American Lincoln is listed as possible. Last year’s Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes hero Enticed exits a visually impressive score in the March 10 Gotham Stakes, and he looms a solid favorite on Saturday.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 31:
Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park, 3-31-18; 158 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power dueled through a wicked opening 1/4 in 21.95, and those two were cooked after six furlongs. Since the early pace was so hot, jockey John Velazquez patiently allowed post time favorite Audible to bide him time at the back of the pack. He made a steady wide run, took over turning for home, and was three lengths to the good of Hofburg at the wire. The latter followed the winner from off the pace and was clearly best of the rest. Mississippi never left the comfort of third position in a solid stalking effort. Catholic Boy reportedly bled through his lasix and ended up 4th. He does not have enough points to compete in the Derby, and will likely get a break before resuming his career later this year. Promises Fulfilled earned enough Derby qualifying points in the Fountain of Youth to run in the Kentucky Derby if trainer Dale Romans decides to go that route.
UAE Derby (Meydan, 3-31-18)
Mendelssohn totally destroyed his competition and earned 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points in the Dubai desert on March 31. He also set a new course record for the 1-3/16th mile distance. He was always traveling smoothly up front and got stronger as the race wore on. He opened up a large lead in the lane and was at least 18-lengths in front at the wire in a breathtaking performance. Distant runner-up Rayya is expected to join Bob Baffert’s stable, and if all goes well, she will target the Kentucky Oaks. She qualified for the Kentucky Oaks with a win in the UAE Oaks at Meydan on March 1. Reride was 3rd in the UAE Derby for trainer Steve Asmussen.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, McKinzie was forced to miss the Santa Anita Derby following a bruised hock. The injury was detected sometime after his most recent published workout on March 26. He has been ruled out of the 2018 Triple Crown Series, and is expected to resume his career later this summer for trainer Bob Baffert. In his last start, he crossed the line first over Bolt d’Oro in the San Felipe but was placed 2nd via disqualification. Last year, Baffert also lost his top Derby prospect Mastery after the San Felipe Stakes.
Gronkowski clinched the European road to the Derby series with a victory in the Burradon Stakes on March 30 at Newcastle. Based on that series, he earned a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs for trainer Jeremy Noseda. Conventional dirt will be a new challenge for the son of Lonhro. His dam sire is 2010 Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky.
Restoring Hope was first mentioned as possible for the San Felipe, followed by the Sunland Derby. He did not compete in either of those races. He breezed five furlongs in company with Solomini on April 2, and now Baffert says it’s all systems go for the Wood Memorial on April 7. Flavien Prat will ride. It seems like his sharp two turn maiden win at Santa Anita on Feb. 2 was ages ago.
Bolt d’Oro capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.20 (11/77) at Santa Anita Park on April 1.
Comments: He had done little wrong in his 5-race career with four wins and a very wide 3rd in the BC Juvenile. Two of his victories were grade one tallies (Del Mar Futurity, FrontRunner Stakes), and he has won dueling on the lead, pressing the pace, stalking and pouncing, and closing from the back of the pack. His first workout for the Santa Anita Derby was a strong half-mile bullet on March 26, and his energy level was high in his most recent move on April 1.
Derby Points (64)
(2) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Comments: It has been nothing but wins following a rallying show finish in his debut last September. The win type can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He rallied from next-to-last in his flat mile maiden win at Aqueduct, and he sat in 2nd in his next two romping wins, including the Holy Bull Stakes. In the Florida Derby, the pace was hot, and he rallied from 8th place. The versatile $500,000 colt is a strong candidate to wear the blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (110)
(3) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in .48.00 (1/54) at Palm Meadows on March 31.
Comments: It is put up or shut up time for the 2-year-old champ. His flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes is looking worse by the day. Three FOY runners, including 1-2 finishers Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power, ran back in the Florida Derby. The aforementioned duo, along with Storm Runner, occupied the last three positions in the Gulfstream Park showcase on March 31. After four lifetime starts, the Chad Brown runner only has one win to his credit, and what a win that was. In his maiden victory in the BC Juvenile, he blew the doors off of quality foes Solomini and Bolt d’Oro. He will need to show much more in his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7, and he will have to overcome post 11.
Derby Points (34)
(4) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 59.80 (2/81) at Santa Anita on April 2.
Comments: Classy, consistent colt needs to prove that he can beat the top sophomore horses. He was 2nd to romping winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split a razor sharp Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity (McKinzie placed first, Instilled Regard placed 2nd). He got sick over the winter, and made his delayed 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17. In the Rebel, he battled hard throughout and ended up 2nd behind promising Pletcher trainee Magnum Moon. He was originally stated to run in the Wood Memorial on April 7, but following McKinzie’s recent injury, he will wait a week and return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby.
Derby Points (34)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :48.07 (1/13) at Palm Beach Downs on March 31.
Comments: McKinzie’s recent injury and the subsequent shuffling of the Baffert deck means that he will not have to face possible monster Justify in the Arkansas Derby. Instead, he will once again square off against Baffert trainee Solomini, and he handled that rival easily in the Rebel Stakes. He might be short on experience, but the talented colt won all three of his career starts this year, and he will likely be a very short number to keep his perfect record intact at Oaklawn Park on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(6) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13.20 (2/8) at Santa Anita Park on April 2.
Comments: He was outstanding in both of his Santa Anita Park wins this year. He followed up his easy extended sprint debut on Feb. 18 with an effortless tally vs. four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He was supposed to ship to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby on April 14, but those plans changed following an injury to his talented stablemate McKinzie. Now, he will lock horns with Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7, and he needs a top two finish to qualify for the Kentucky Derby.
(7) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The $3 million purchase is the biggest overseas threat to win the Kentucky Derby in many years. He has seven lifetime starts with four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. Last year’s BC Juvenile Turf hero elevated his game to a whole new level in an 18-length tour de force in the UAE Derby. Will Beholder’s half-brother be able to ship from the desert to Kentucky and run back to that stellar effort in five weeks? History is certainly not on his side, and he will probably take more money than he should, but he certainly has the raw talent to make some serious noise in Louisville.
Derby Points (100)
(8) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Comments: His Derby prep race work is complete, and he will start breezing for the Kentucky Derby shortly. He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and edging graded winner Instilled Regard for the show in his stakes debut in the Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. In his final Derby prep, he added blinkers in the Louisiana Derby and came again along the inside to secure the victory over stretch runners Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack in a determined effort under John Velazquez.
Derby Points (110)
(9) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.95 (20/43) at Palm Meadows on March 30.
Comments: Following a game show finish in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park last fall, he captured the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and that key race produced subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, and Bravazo. He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a strong win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep, and he is expected to be the favorite in that event. He already has enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, and his connections are just looking for a solid effort at Aqueduct on Saturday.
Derby Points (63)
(10) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.80 (12/33) at Gulfstream Park on March 31.
Comments: He earned 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and in his two starts this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd) and Gotham Stakes (finished 3rd). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He drew post 10 for the April 7 Blue Grass Stakes and needs to finish third or better to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He won a grade one at Keeneland in the aforementioned Breeders’ Futurity in 2017, so we know he likes the Lexington oval.
Derby Points (24)
(11) INSTILLED REGARD (Arch - Enhancing, by Forestry)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 138 (Risen Star Stakes, FG, 2-17-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (28/70) at Santa Anita Park on March 31.
Comments: He returns to the “exceptional eleven" following the defections of Catholic Boy and McKinzie. Maybe his 4th place finish in the Risen Star was not so bad after all. Noble Indy just edged him for the show that day, and that one qualified for the Kentucky Derby with a very game victory in the Louisiana Derby on March 24. Jerry Hollendorfer’s colt finished in the top three in his first five lifetime starts including a win in the Lecomte Stakes and a 2nd in the Los Alamitos Futurity. He had plenty of options for his final Derby prep and is certainly not ducking the opposition in the Santa Anita Derby. A show finish would leave him with 39 points, and that would probably be enough to make the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 5.
Derby Points (19)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Combatant - 22 points, (13) My Boy Jack - 32 points, (14) Quip- 50 points, (15) Flameaway - 30 points, (16) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (17) Bravazo- 54 points, (18) Runaway Ghost - 50 points, (19) Hofburg - 40 points, (20) Gronkowski - earned berth through European road to Kentucky Derby 2018.
Friday, March 30, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Audible Ready to Roll in Florida Derby
Audible, yet another Kentucky Derby 2018 hopeful for trainer Todd Pletcher, is the likely favorite in a possible field of ten in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 31.
Audible rallied from far back to finish 3rd in his dirt sprint unveiling at Belmont Park last September, and he has done nothing wrong since. After his debut, he rallied to defeat New York-bred foes at one mile at Aqueduct in November, and dusted three rivals in an off the turf affair at a flat mile at Aqueduct in December. He made his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4, and was an emphatic 5-1/2 length winner after stalking moderate fractions.
Remsen Stakes hero Catholic Boy, most recently 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, might be the biggest threat to Audible. He is training forwardly and figures to enjoy the nine furlong distance of the Florida Derby.
Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power, the 1-2 finishers in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, are also expected to contest the Florida Derby, along with Fire When Ready, Millionaire Runner, Mississippi, Speed Franco, Storm Runner, and Tip Sheet.
The other Kentucky Derby points race this weekend is the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai on Saturday, March 25. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn, fresh off a victory in the Patton Stakes, is the marquee name for trainer Aidan O’Brien. The Kentucky Derby has been his target for many months. Reride leaves the states after a pair of New Mexico stakes wins for Steve Asmussen. He easily defeated Runaway Ghost in the Mine That Derby in his last start, and that runner looked good winning the Sunland Derby last weekend. Gold Town is the top local hope for Godolphin, and they have every intention of bringing him to Kentucky if he earns enough Derby points.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 24-25:
Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds, 3-24-18; 146 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
The opening quarter of a mile (22.97) tells the LA Derby story. Eventual winner Noble Indy added blinkers and was a length back early, and 2-3 finishers Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack were at the back of the pack in 9th and 10th place in the early stages. It looked like the aforementioned closers would sweep the exacta, but Noble Indy and John Velazquez had other plans. The Todd Pletcher trainee was passed by the two late runners in the stretch, but came again to gain the advantage by a neck at the wire. This was the kind of gritty, prominent throughout performance that you like to see in a Derby contender. The top three finishers were 7+ clear of the rest of the field, and Noble Indy was the only early runner around at the end. Snapper Sinclair chased and faded in a disappointing effort. Ditto Bravazo, but he has enough Derby qualifying points if Lukas and company opt to run on the first Saturday in May. I don’t know how strong this race from top to bottom, but Noble Indy ran a quality race and still has upside with only four starts to his name. My Boy Jack is the kind of closer that can make some noise in the Derby for Team Desormeaux. He currently has 32 Derby points and is on the bubble with seven points races left on the docket.
Sunland Derby (Sunland Park, 3-25-18; 152 Final Rating)
Runaway Ghost was the top local hope in the Sunland Derby, and the bet-down Ghostzapper colt did not let down his backers. His Today’s Racing Digest performance ratings jumped up in his two local stakes starts earlier this year, and he kicked his game up another notch on Sunday. He dueled on the lead in his first two outings this year, but jockey Tracy Hebert was more patient from an outer post position this time. He was a wide 8th early, steadily advanced to 4th after the six furlong mark, opened up a commanding lead in the lane, and easily held off Steve Asmussen’s late runner Dream Baby Dream (blinkers on). The latter was six lengths clear of show finisher Peace. High percentage trainer Todd Fincher conditions Runaway Ghost, and he has done a very nice job preparing his charge for the Derby. He will get a class and distance test under the Twin Spires, and his newfound running style versatility is an asset.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Instilled Regard has now worked five times since finishing a flat 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, and he checked in just behind recent LA Derby hero Noble Indy in New Orleans in that race. His most recent move was a seven furlong work in company with Shackleford Banks on March 25. He was at least sixteen lengths behind his workmate before passing him at the wire. He will have his final Derby prep in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Sam F. Davis hero and Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Flameaway drilled a half-mile bullet in 48.95 (1/36) at Palm Meadows Training Center on March 25. The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7 is his next assignment.
Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip got back to work for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. He breezed a half-mile in 48.40 (3/55) at Tampa Bay Downs on March 24. He will wrap up his Derby preparations in the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial.
Finally, Gronkowski will not be shipped to the US for a Derby prep start after all. Trainer Jeremy Noseda was reportedly looking at the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial, but will instead enter his Derby hopeful in the Burradon Stakes on March 30 at Newcastle. Churchill Downs added a European road to the Derby points race series this year, and Gronkowski can secure a starting spot on the first Saturday in May if he finishes 1st or 2nd on March 30.
Speed figures courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.00 (1/93) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He started as my top ranked Derby contender when I began my list last September, and he has never left that position. He has done everything you want to see in a Derby contender up to this point. He won his first two sprints last summer including the Del Mar Futurity. He stretched out and blew away his rivals in the G1 FrontRunner, and he never gave up despite a very wide trip from an outer post in the BC Juvenile (finished 3rd). In his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 10, he did everything asked of him and more while not fully cranked. He fought hard throughout and was placed first following a late stretch bumping incident with McKinzie, and the show finisher was far back. His first workout since the San Felipe was a strong half-mile bullet on March 26, and I fully expect him to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Derby Points (64)
(2) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.40 (1/116) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: Could he be the next Silver Charm for Baffert? He can be brilliant, like he was in his big debut win, and in his razor sharp off the pace tally in the G3 Sham (blinkers off). He also showed that he is not afraid to battle hard throughout, like he did in the G1 Los Al Futurity (placed first via disqualification), and in the San Felipe (finished 1st but placed 2nd via disqualification). He has worked twice since the San Felipe, including a five furlong bullet on March 26. He is in need of a less eventful race in his final Derby prep, and it looks like he will knock heads with Bolt d’Oro again in the Santa Anita Derby.
Derby Points (40)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.39 (3/30) at Palm Beach Downs on March 24.
Comments: After rallying for the show in his dirt sprint debut, he has rattled off three straight wins. In his last start at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull on Feb. 3, he stepped up to face quality foes, and he was up to the task in a sharp 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. The Florida Derby on March 31 will be his final Kentucky Derby points race.
Derby Points (10)
(4) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1.01.45 (5/36) at Palm Meadows on March 24.
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: He is still only a winner of one race, but what a win it was. In his maiden victory in the BC Juvenile, he blew the doors off of quality foes Solomini and Bolt d’Oro, and that visually impressive effort garnered him the Eclipse Award for outstanding 2-year-old. Prior to the BC Juvenile, he finished 2nd in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. He made his much anticipated 3-year-old bow in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and he ended up a flat 3rd in a race he probably needed. He will need to show much more in his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(5) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.00 (8/93) at Santa Anita on March 26.
Comments: Always a bridesmaid and never a bride in the stakes ranks. He was 2nd to romping winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split a razor sharp Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity. He got sick over the winter, and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. In his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17, jockey Flavien Prat seemed to want the lead, but he was not quick enough early, so he stalked the pace inside. He briefly got stuck behind weakening front runner Title Ready in early stretch, and he battled hard to the end while outmaneuvering late runner Combatant for the place. He should have gotten a ton out of the Rebel Stakes and might move forward in his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(6) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.46 (8/58) at Gulfstream Park on March 25.
Comments: He won two stakes races as a juvenile, the With Anticipation on turf at Saratoga, and the Remsen Stakes at a mile and an eighth on dirt at Aqueduct. He made his first start as a 3-year-old in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10, and he rallied into tepid splits and finished a respectable 2nd in a race he probably needed. He will complete his Derby points race road in the Florida Derby on March 31, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will replace Manny Franco in the irons.
Derby Points (14)
(7) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and edging graded winner Instilled Regard for the show in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. He added blinkers in the Louisiana Derby and was in the hunt throughout. He was passed in the stretch but came again to secure the victory in a determined effort under John Velazquez. He has completed his road to the Derby race schedule and will begin preparing for the biggest test of his short career on first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (110)
(8) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in :59.60 (2/118) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He is making up for lost time after failing to start as a juvenile. He was an impressive debut winner in an extended sprint at Santa Anita on Feb. 18, and made short work of his four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns at the same venue on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He is obviously very talented but has only raced twice and is definitely playing catch up at this stage. He drilled a half-mile bullet on March 20, and worked fast again at Santa Anita on March 26. Next up is the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 14.
(9) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Comments: The unraced 2-year-old began his career with an easy dirt sprint win at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13. He stretched out and easily took down four rivals in an optional claiming route at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 15, and looked very good winning his first stakes start in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. In the Rebel, he attended the pace outside, bid for the lead turning for home, and pulled clear for a 3-1/2 length victory under jockey Luis Saez. He will complete his road to the Derby in the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (13/36) at Palm Meadows on March 23.
Comments: With Avery Island out with an injury, he is McLaughlin’s last Derby hope. Following a game show finish in the Champagne at Belmont Park last fall, he captured a productive renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, Bravazo). He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his G2 Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a big win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep. He is bred to handle nine furlongs at the very least, and might be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.91 (65/96) at Gulfstream Park on March 24.
Comments: He won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year with a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating, and earned the same number in his Holy Bull place finish, and his Gotham show finish. He was part of my original “exceptional eleven” last September, so I have a soft spot for him, plus his sire Union Rags was my 2012 Derby-Belmont horse. It appears that he is a notch below the best at this stage, and his preferred distance is anyone’s guess. He seems to like Keeneland, and will wrap up his road to the Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes in Lexington, Kentucky on April 7.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Instilled Regard - 19 points, (13) Combatant - 22 points, (14) Promises Fulfilled - 52 points, (15) My Boy Jack - 32 points, (16) Quip - 50 points, (17) Lone Sailor - 42 points, (18) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (19) Bravazo - 54 points, (20) Runaway Ghost - 50 points.
Audible rallied from far back to finish 3rd in his dirt sprint unveiling at Belmont Park last September, and he has done nothing wrong since. After his debut, he rallied to defeat New York-bred foes at one mile at Aqueduct in November, and dusted three rivals in an off the turf affair at a flat mile at Aqueduct in December. He made his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4, and was an emphatic 5-1/2 length winner after stalking moderate fractions.
Remsen Stakes hero Catholic Boy, most recently 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, might be the biggest threat to Audible. He is training forwardly and figures to enjoy the nine furlong distance of the Florida Derby.
Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power, the 1-2 finishers in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, are also expected to contest the Florida Derby, along with Fire When Ready, Millionaire Runner, Mississippi, Speed Franco, Storm Runner, and Tip Sheet.
The other Kentucky Derby points race this weekend is the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai on Saturday, March 25. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn, fresh off a victory in the Patton Stakes, is the marquee name for trainer Aidan O’Brien. The Kentucky Derby has been his target for many months. Reride leaves the states after a pair of New Mexico stakes wins for Steve Asmussen. He easily defeated Runaway Ghost in the Mine That Derby in his last start, and that runner looked good winning the Sunland Derby last weekend. Gold Town is the top local hope for Godolphin, and they have every intention of bringing him to Kentucky if he earns enough Derby points.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 24-25:
Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds, 3-24-18; 146 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
The opening quarter of a mile (22.97) tells the LA Derby story. Eventual winner Noble Indy added blinkers and was a length back early, and 2-3 finishers Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack were at the back of the pack in 9th and 10th place in the early stages. It looked like the aforementioned closers would sweep the exacta, but Noble Indy and John Velazquez had other plans. The Todd Pletcher trainee was passed by the two late runners in the stretch, but came again to gain the advantage by a neck at the wire. This was the kind of gritty, prominent throughout performance that you like to see in a Derby contender. The top three finishers were 7+ clear of the rest of the field, and Noble Indy was the only early runner around at the end. Snapper Sinclair chased and faded in a disappointing effort. Ditto Bravazo, but he has enough Derby qualifying points if Lukas and company opt to run on the first Saturday in May. I don’t know how strong this race from top to bottom, but Noble Indy ran a quality race and still has upside with only four starts to his name. My Boy Jack is the kind of closer that can make some noise in the Derby for Team Desormeaux. He currently has 32 Derby points and is on the bubble with seven points races left on the docket.
Sunland Derby (Sunland Park, 3-25-18; 152 Final Rating)
Runaway Ghost was the top local hope in the Sunland Derby, and the bet-down Ghostzapper colt did not let down his backers. His Today’s Racing Digest performance ratings jumped up in his two local stakes starts earlier this year, and he kicked his game up another notch on Sunday. He dueled on the lead in his first two outings this year, but jockey Tracy Hebert was more patient from an outer post position this time. He was a wide 8th early, steadily advanced to 4th after the six furlong mark, opened up a commanding lead in the lane, and easily held off Steve Asmussen’s late runner Dream Baby Dream (blinkers on). The latter was six lengths clear of show finisher Peace. High percentage trainer Todd Fincher conditions Runaway Ghost, and he has done a very nice job preparing his charge for the Derby. He will get a class and distance test under the Twin Spires, and his newfound running style versatility is an asset.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Instilled Regard has now worked five times since finishing a flat 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, and he checked in just behind recent LA Derby hero Noble Indy in New Orleans in that race. His most recent move was a seven furlong work in company with Shackleford Banks on March 25. He was at least sixteen lengths behind his workmate before passing him at the wire. He will have his final Derby prep in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Sam F. Davis hero and Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Flameaway drilled a half-mile bullet in 48.95 (1/36) at Palm Meadows Training Center on March 25. The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7 is his next assignment.
Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip got back to work for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. He breezed a half-mile in 48.40 (3/55) at Tampa Bay Downs on March 24. He will wrap up his Derby preparations in the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial.
Finally, Gronkowski will not be shipped to the US for a Derby prep start after all. Trainer Jeremy Noseda was reportedly looking at the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial, but will instead enter his Derby hopeful in the Burradon Stakes on March 30 at Newcastle. Churchill Downs added a European road to the Derby points race series this year, and Gronkowski can secure a starting spot on the first Saturday in May if he finishes 1st or 2nd on March 30.
Speed figures courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.00 (1/93) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He started as my top ranked Derby contender when I began my list last September, and he has never left that position. He has done everything you want to see in a Derby contender up to this point. He won his first two sprints last summer including the Del Mar Futurity. He stretched out and blew away his rivals in the G1 FrontRunner, and he never gave up despite a very wide trip from an outer post in the BC Juvenile (finished 3rd). In his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 10, he did everything asked of him and more while not fully cranked. He fought hard throughout and was placed first following a late stretch bumping incident with McKinzie, and the show finisher was far back. His first workout since the San Felipe was a strong half-mile bullet on March 26, and I fully expect him to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Derby Points (64)
(2) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.40 (1/116) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: Could he be the next Silver Charm for Baffert? He can be brilliant, like he was in his big debut win, and in his razor sharp off the pace tally in the G3 Sham (blinkers off). He also showed that he is not afraid to battle hard throughout, like he did in the G1 Los Al Futurity (placed first via disqualification), and in the San Felipe (finished 1st but placed 2nd via disqualification). He has worked twice since the San Felipe, including a five furlong bullet on March 26. He is in need of a less eventful race in his final Derby prep, and it looks like he will knock heads with Bolt d’Oro again in the Santa Anita Derby.
Derby Points (40)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.39 (3/30) at Palm Beach Downs on March 24.
Comments: After rallying for the show in his dirt sprint debut, he has rattled off three straight wins. In his last start at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull on Feb. 3, he stepped up to face quality foes, and he was up to the task in a sharp 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. The Florida Derby on March 31 will be his final Kentucky Derby points race.
Derby Points (10)
(4) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1.01.45 (5/36) at Palm Meadows on March 24.
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: He is still only a winner of one race, but what a win it was. In his maiden victory in the BC Juvenile, he blew the doors off of quality foes Solomini and Bolt d’Oro, and that visually impressive effort garnered him the Eclipse Award for outstanding 2-year-old. Prior to the BC Juvenile, he finished 2nd in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. He made his much anticipated 3-year-old bow in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and he ended up a flat 3rd in a race he probably needed. He will need to show much more in his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(5) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.00 (8/93) at Santa Anita on March 26.
Comments: Always a bridesmaid and never a bride in the stakes ranks. He was 2nd to romping winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split a razor sharp Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity. He got sick over the winter, and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. In his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17, jockey Flavien Prat seemed to want the lead, but he was not quick enough early, so he stalked the pace inside. He briefly got stuck behind weakening front runner Title Ready in early stretch, and he battled hard to the end while outmaneuvering late runner Combatant for the place. He should have gotten a ton out of the Rebel Stakes and might move forward in his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(6) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.46 (8/58) at Gulfstream Park on March 25.
Comments: He won two stakes races as a juvenile, the With Anticipation on turf at Saratoga, and the Remsen Stakes at a mile and an eighth on dirt at Aqueduct. He made his first start as a 3-year-old in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10, and he rallied into tepid splits and finished a respectable 2nd in a race he probably needed. He will complete his Derby points race road in the Florida Derby on March 31, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will replace Manny Franco in the irons.
Derby Points (14)
(7) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and edging graded winner Instilled Regard for the show in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. He added blinkers in the Louisiana Derby and was in the hunt throughout. He was passed in the stretch but came again to secure the victory in a determined effort under John Velazquez. He has completed his road to the Derby race schedule and will begin preparing for the biggest test of his short career on first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (110)
(8) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in :59.60 (2/118) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He is making up for lost time after failing to start as a juvenile. He was an impressive debut winner in an extended sprint at Santa Anita on Feb. 18, and made short work of his four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns at the same venue on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He is obviously very talented but has only raced twice and is definitely playing catch up at this stage. He drilled a half-mile bullet on March 20, and worked fast again at Santa Anita on March 26. Next up is the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 14.
(9) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Comments: The unraced 2-year-old began his career with an easy dirt sprint win at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13. He stretched out and easily took down four rivals in an optional claiming route at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 15, and looked very good winning his first stakes start in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. In the Rebel, he attended the pace outside, bid for the lead turning for home, and pulled clear for a 3-1/2 length victory under jockey Luis Saez. He will complete his road to the Derby in the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (13/36) at Palm Meadows on March 23.
Comments: With Avery Island out with an injury, he is McLaughlin’s last Derby hope. Following a game show finish in the Champagne at Belmont Park last fall, he captured a productive renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, Bravazo). He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his G2 Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a big win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep. He is bred to handle nine furlongs at the very least, and might be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.91 (65/96) at Gulfstream Park on March 24.
Comments: He won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year with a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating, and earned the same number in his Holy Bull place finish, and his Gotham show finish. He was part of my original “exceptional eleven” last September, so I have a soft spot for him, plus his sire Union Rags was my 2012 Derby-Belmont horse. It appears that he is a notch below the best at this stage, and his preferred distance is anyone’s guess. He seems to like Keeneland, and will wrap up his road to the Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes in Lexington, Kentucky on April 7.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Instilled Regard - 19 points, (13) Combatant - 22 points, (14) Promises Fulfilled - 52 points, (15) My Boy Jack - 32 points, (16) Quip - 50 points, (17) Lone Sailor - 42 points, (18) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (19) Bravazo - 54 points, (20) Runaway Ghost - 50 points.
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