Saturday, February 25, 2017

Handicapping video of the week: Rachel Alexandra Stakes with Valadorna, Farrell, and Shane's Girlfriend

The 2017 Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb 25 looks like an interesting battle between BC Juvenile Fillies runner-up Valadorna and graded route winners Farrell and Shane's Girlfriend.


Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Southwest Recap + Risen Star Preview

One Liner made a splash on the Kentucky Derby 2017 trail with a sharp victory over Petrov in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday, Feb 20.




One Liner smartly ran down Petrov and earned a very good 102 BSF. I picked Petrov on top but knew going in that he was probably a miler so One Liner seemingly went by a horse at the end of his distance rope. I am not sure how strong the top two Southwest players will be when they hit nine panels and beyond. 

Lookin At Lee was up for the show but ended up 11+ lengths behind the top pair. He wants more ground but needs to run faster.

If I have see it once I have seen it a thousand times. Big wet track wins are rarely duplicated over a different set of circumstances and that was definitely true for Smarty Jones hero Uncontested (fading 6th in Southwest). He had to work harder earlier to secure the early lead on a fast track at a longer distance and came up empty in the drive at underlaid odds. He has distance limitations due to uneven energy distribution.

As for the other Derby prep last weekend, Zakarof earned a 77 BSF and paid a whopping $99.60 in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields. The nine furlong synthetic route was slow and most likely will not have any impact on the first Saturday in May. 

The lone Derby points race this week is the Grade II Risen Star from Fair Grounds. I planned on doing a video preview of this race but ran out of time...sorry about that.

The Lecomte figure on a wet track came up below par so horses not exiting that event (Girvin, Local Hero, U S Officer, Cool Arrow, Mo Town, Sorry Erik, Horse Fly, It’s Your Nickel, So Conflated) are worth a second look in the Risen Star.

Mo Town smartly won the Remsen to end his juvenile campaign but that race is looking like a negative prep after runner-up No Dozing failed to fire in the Sam F. Davis and show finisher Takaful was drubbed in the Jerome. 

Local Hero landed the place in his first two extended sprints and ran off the screen in his two turn maiden win at Fair Grounds Jan 26. Asmussen’s $500,000 purchase might be able to go all the way in his graded stakes debut. He is my top choice in the Risen Star.  


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-25-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - McCraken

#3 - El Areeb

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Three Rules

#6 - Practical Joke

#7 - Irish War Cry

#8 - Royal Mo

#9 - Classic Empire

#10 - Theory 

#11 - Battalion Runner


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Santa Anita Park 2017 Winter Meet Rewind: Feb 16-20

It was supposed to be a special 5-day holiday week of racing but rain reared its ugly head Feb 17 and once again a live race card was scrapped.



Thursday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Feb 16

Fast main track and firm turf course. No wire-to-wire winners on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a front runner at nine furlongs and two midpack pouncers down the hill (rail at 30 feet).

Tyler Baze booted home a pair.

A couple of Vladimir Cerin horses to watch and both ran on turf. Conquest Sabre Cat (first start in 6+ months) chased wire job winner and heavy favorite Klondike Creek in the 9f opener and ended up clearly second best under 10-pound bug Roman.

Recent maiden winner Geologist broke from an outer post down the hill and rallied wide from 9th to miss 3rd by a nose.

Saturday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Feb 18

The Feb 17 live racing card was scrapped because of heavy rain. There was no turf racing on Feb 18 and the good main track was upgraded to fast by the third race. Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 8f, 6f).

Flavien Prat booted home a pair.

Denman’s Call blew the break in the third race and made a sustained run for the show as the favorite vs. optional claiming company (six furlongs dirt).

The fifth race was taken off the turf and run at one mile on dirt. Marckie’s Water ended up an even 4th in his first start since Nov 18 for Baltas. I think he was out for the exercise and might move up on turf next time.   


You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...

Monday, February 20, 2017

Handicapping Video of the Week: G3 Southwest with Uncontested, Petrov

Smarty Jones Stakes top four finishers Uncontested, Petrov, Rowdy the Warrior, and Warrior's Club square off again in the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Monday, February 20, 2017.

Uncontested will be tough to beat if he is able to dictate terms once again. Petrov should be chasing and hoping that someone goes with the Smarty Jones winner this time.

Rowdy the Warrior and Warrior's Club need to elevate their games to compete for an exacta spot.

Other contenders include last year's G1 Breeders' Futurity runner-up Lookin At Lee and One Liner for trainer Todd Pletcher. The latter is 2-for-2 in sprint races and tries to stretch his speed around two turns.


Saturday, February 18, 2017

Kentucky Derby 2017 prep race video: El Camino Real Derby + Southwest Stakes

There are a pair of Derby points races this week beginning with the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Feb 18. Santa Anita Park shippers Sheer Flattery and Ann Arbor Eddie take on locals More Power to Him and Colonel Samsen in the nine furlong synthetic test.

On Presidents’ Day (Monday, Feb 20), Smarty Jones Stakes 1-2-3 finishers Uncontested, Petrov, and Rowdy the Warrior meet again.   


Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: McCraken wins Sam F. Davis Stakes

McCraken moved up on many Kentucky Derby 2017 lists following a sharp off the pace tally in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb 11.



McCraken is now 4-for-4 and earned 10 Derby qualifying points in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last fall and another 10 points in Florida last weekend.

I like the fact that McCraken’s trainer Ian Wilkes worked with veteran conditioner Carl Nafzger during Unbridled’s and Street Sense’s Derby-winning campaigns. Mr. Wilkes is going old school with a trio of Derby preps and we already know his promising colt likes Churchill Downs.

Tapwrit was a decent 2nd in the Davis for Pletcher, followed by State of Honor and Wild Shot. Remsen runner-up No Dozing did not show up in a disappointing effort. 

Iliad looked good in the G2 San Vicente (96 BSF) at Santa Anita Park last Sunday. Bob Baffert trained him for his juvenile campaign and Doug "Neill is the conditioner now for Kaleem Shah's promising runner. It looks like the San Felipe/SA Derby for this one.

There are a pair of Derby points races this week beginning with the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on Feb 18. Santa Anita Park shippers Sheer Flattery and Ann Arbor Eddie take on locals More Power to Him and Colonel Samsen in the nine furlong synthetic test.


On Presidents’ Day (Monday, Feb 20), Smarty Jones Stakes 1-2-3 finishers Uncontested, Petrov, and Rowdy the Warrior meet again.  

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-18-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - McCraken

#3 - El Areeb

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Three Rules

#6 - Classic Empire

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Royal Mo

#9 - Theory 

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Irish War Cry


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Santa Anita Park 2017 Winter Meet Rewind: Feb 9-12

Wet weather is the new normal at Santa Anita Park and some rain made for an off track on Saturday. On Sunday, we were treated to a nice performance by Iliad in the G2 San Vicente and a Kentucky Derby 2017 two turn prep race is next for the exciting sophomore prospect.



Thursday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Feb 9

Fast main track and firm turf course. No wire-to-wire winners on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a downhill stalker, a stalker at one mile, and a last-to-first closer at ten furlongs (Rail at 20 feet).

Richard Baltas saddled two turf winners.

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Feb 10

Fast main track and firm turf course. Four wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 6.5f, 6f, 8f). The winning turf course running styles were an inside presser down the hill and a stalker at one mile (rail at 30 feet).

Joe Talamo booted home a pair.


You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Handicapping Video of the Week: G3 Sam F. Davis with McCraken

The Sam F. Davis Stakes is my video race of the week and McCraken is the one to beat from off the pace.

Other contenders include stakes placed colts No Dozing and Wild Shot, and the Todd Pletcher pair of Fact Finding and Tapwrit.


Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Holy Bull, Withers, Robert Lewis recap + Sam F Davis preview

The road to Kentucky Derby 2017 had three stops last week and Irish War Cry burst onto the scene with a sharp wire-to-wire win in the G2 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.



Irish War Cry traveled well throughout, easily defeating G3 Delta Jackpot hero Gunnevera and 2-year-old champion Classic Empire. The Motion trainee is now 3-for-3 but did have everything his own way at the Gulf and figures to face a stiffer pace challenge next time. 

Gunnevera rallied nicely for the place and Classic Empire came up empty in his sophomore debut. The latter was short on conditioning with only four works and came out of the Holy Bull with a foot abscess.

The G3 Withers was a replay of the Jerome with track condition the only real difference. Once again, El Areeb made short work of his competition in a solid stalk/pounce victory. He is expected to skip the Gotham and have his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial. We will learn more about El Areeb vs. tougher competition at nine furlongs.

It was nice to see Royal Mo go all the way in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. He has been on my Derby list for quite some time and the strapping son of Uncle Mo is developing nicely for John Shirreffs. He is still a bit behind some of the top tier Derby contenders but possesses raw talent and unlimited potential. 

This week’s Derby points race is the G3 Sam F. Davis from Tampa Bay Downs and G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes hero McCraken is the morning line favorite.

Stakes placed colts No Dozing and Wild Shot are both solid threats, and trainer Todd Pletcher goes after his seventh Sam F. Davis victory with Fact Finding and Tapwrit.


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-11-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - McCraken

#3 - El Areeb

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Three Rules

#6 - Classic Empire

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Royal Mo

#9 - Theory 

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Irish War Cry


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Santa Anita Park 2017 Winter Meet Rewind (Feb 2-5)

It was a very big week for jockey Flavien Prat with a pair of riding doubles on Thursday-Friday and a four-bagger on Saturday.



Thursday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Feb 2

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a downhill presser, a flat mile stalker, and another stalker at a mile and a half (rail at 20 feet).

Flavien Prat booted home a pair. Richard Baltas saddled two winners including Goodyearforroses in the Astra Stakes at a mile and a half on turf.

Into the Mystic has an uncomfortable trip in the Astra Stakes at 12f. She was wide early from post 10 and wide on the last turn and even wider in the stretch. She faded to 10th and last and can show more at a shorter distance with a better trip next time.

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Feb 3

Fast main track and firm turf course. The opening race was moved from the downhill turf course to the main track. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (6.5f, 8f). The winning turf course running styles were a patient runner down the hill and a front runner at one mile (rail at 30 feet).

Rafael Bejarano and Flavien Prat booted home a pair.


You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...

Kentucky Derby 2017 prep races: Sam F. Davis Stakes preview

The Kentucky Derby 2017 trail makes a pit stop at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb 11 and McCraken is the one to beat in the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes.

McCraken won all three of his juvenile starts at Churchill Downs including the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

Other Sam F. Davis contenders include G2 Remsen runner-up No Dozing and G2 Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Wild Shot.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Sam F. Davis six times and he has Fact Finding and Tapwrit for the 2017 renewal.



Friday, February 3, 2017

Kentucky Derby 2017 prep race video preview featuring Classic Empire in the Holy Bull Stakes

There are three Kentucky Derby 2017 points races on the schedule for Saturday, Feb 4 including the return of 2-year-old champion Classic Empire in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park.

In addition to the Holy Bull, impressive Jerome hero El Areeb is back in New York for the Withers at Aqueduct, and five horses will square off in the Robert Lewis at Santa Anita including 2-1 morning line favorite Sheer Flattery.


Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Robert Lewis, Withers, Holy Bull

The road to Kentucky Derby 2017 has three stops this week beginning with the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita Park.



Only five horses entered the G3 Lewis and all seem to have a shot. The Lewis figures to come down to pace and Royal Mo might attempt a wire job from the rail.

Sheer Flattery is the morning line favorite and will probably track whatever pace develops under Mike Smith.

The other three entrants (IrapDangerfieldTerm of Art) are trained by Doug O’Neill.

The G3 Withers looks like a one-horse affair if El Areeb runs back to his facile Jerome triumph. The Jerome was contested on a wet track so he must still prove that he can run a quality two turn race on fast ground.

The G2 Holy Bull from Gulfstream marks the much anticipated return of juvenile champion Classic Empire. He only has four workouts for this event and is obviously not fully cranked but can still score on class alone. He is already in great shape with 30 Derby points in his holster.


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 2-3-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - McCraken

#6 - El Areeb

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Theory

#9 - Royal Mo 

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Faja


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Santa Anita Park 2017 Winter Meet Rewind (Jan 26-29)

The seemingly endless wet weather pattern took a hike and it was sunny and dry for the entire live racing week.



Thursday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Jan 26

Fast main track and no turf races carded. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 8f).  

Hat trick for Rafael BejaranoRichard Baltas saddled two winners.

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Jan 27

Fast main track and no turf races carded. One wire-to-wire winner at 8.5 furlongs on dirt.  


Santiago Gonzalez booted home the late double. Mark Glatt saddled two winners.


You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...