Friday, March 31, 2017

HRN Handicapping Video of the Week: Florida Derby with Gunnevera

My HRN video race of the week is the Florida Derby with Gunnevera, Three Rules, and Always Dreaming.


Kentucky Derby 2017 prep race video: Florida Derby with Gunnevera + Louisiana Derby with Girvin

This week's Kentucky Derby 2017 prep race video features the Florida Derby with Gunnevera and the Louisiana Derby with Girvin.


 

Today's Racing Digest Handicapping Video: Louisiana Derby with Girvin

This week's handicapping video for Today's Racing Digest is the Louisiana Derby featuring Girvin. Check out the video below for a promo code for free past performances for any complete Digest product.


Today's Racing Digest Handicapping Video: Santana Mile with Dortmund

This week's handicapping video for Today's Racing Digest is the Santana Mile featuring Dortmund. Check out the video below for a promo code for free past performances for any complete Digest product.


Santa Anita Park Winter Meet Recap (March 23-26)

Thursday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: March 23

Fast main track and firm turf course. Three wire-to-wire winners on a speed friendly dirt oval (6.5f, 6f, 5.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a patient runner at one mile, a dueling front runner down the hill, and a stalker at 9f (rail at 20 feet).




Rafael Bejarano booted home a pair and is getting his groove back.

The Bejarano/Cerin combo struck again with Will Tell. They don’t team up often but look out when they do because they are know to cluster together wins.

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: March 24

Fast main track and firm turf course. Four wire-to-wire winners on the speed favoring main track (8f, 6.5f, 6f, 6f). The winning turf course running styles were a downhill stalker, a downhill front runner, and a downhill presser (rail at 30 feet).

Vladimir Cerin saddled two winners.


You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...

Saturday, March 25, 2017

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Rebel Stakes Recap + Spiral Stakes and Sunland Derby Preview

Trainer Todd Pletcher's latest Kentucky Derby 2017 flavor of the week Malagacy tracked distance challenged front runner Uncontested and remained unbeaten with a 2-length triumph in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 18.



Pletcher continues to rack up Derby points race victories and some will jump on the Malagacy bandwagon but he earned an uninspiring 91 BSF in the Rebel Stakes and appears to have distance limitations (final 1/4 in :25.45).

To show how weak the Rebel may turn out to be, 112-1 maiden Sonneteer got up for 2nd, edging Fair Grounds shipper Untrapped and local runner Petrov. I have always been a fan of the latter but have known for quite some time that he is a miler.

With my longtime top ranked Derby contender Mastery out of the chase, I am impatiently waiting for a Derby hopeful to knock my socks off. We probably won’t see that type of performance in the Spiral or Sunland Derby this week but both are interesting betting races, especially the former.

The Spiral Stakes will be run on all-weather footing at Turfway Park on March 25 and Kitten’s Cat is the tepid 4-1 morning line favorite. His three wins were between 6.5f and one mile and gets a nine furlong distance test in the Spiral.

The Sunland Derby will be run at nine furlongs on March 26 and morning line favorite Bronze Age is probably the one to catch for Bob Baffert. He did not show much in his first two sprints but smartly went all the way in his first route try at Santa Anita Feb 18 and the 2-3 finishers were next out winners.


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 3-25-17)

#1 - GUNNEVERA

#2 - McCraken

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Practical Joke

#5 - Battalion Runner

#6 - Tapwrit

#7 - Irish War Cry

#8 - El Areeb

#9 - Gormley

#10 - Royal Mo

#11 - Classic Empire


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Friday, March 24, 2017

Kentucky Derby 2017 prep race video: Spiral Stakes + Sunland Derby

There are two Kentucky Derby 2017 points races this week. First up is the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park on March 25 followed by the Sunland Derby at Sunland Park on March 26. Both races will be contested at nine furlongs. 

Today's Racing Digest Handicapping Video: G2 San Luis Rey with Ashleyluvssugar

This week's video for Today's Racing Digest is the Grade 2 San Luis Rey Stakes from Santa Anita Park. 

The wide open turf marathon features a 12-horse field including Ashleyluvssugar and Texas Ryano


Santa Anita Park Winter Meet Recap (March 16-19)

Thursday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: March 16

Fast main track and firm turf course. No wire-to-wire winners on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a patient runner down the hill, a front runner down the hill, and a downhill closer (rail at 10 feet).  




Three wins for Tyler Baze. He almost made it a four-bagger but was taken down in the 7th race aboard Anita Partner.

I mentioned in my full card that Bolitar frequently promises more than he delivers. Maybe that will change for his new trainer Peter Miller, who nabbed him out of the 6th race for $16k.

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: March 17

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (6f, 7f). The winning turf course running styles were a front runner down the hill, a downhill stalker, and a patient runner at one mile (rail at 30 feet).

Riding double for Flavien Prat.

Aotearoa was the only horse entered for a tag in the opener and sharp trainer Phil D’Amato reached out and took him for $40k. He likes the downhill course and ended up 2nd in today’s optional claimer down the dip.


You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...

HRN Handicapping Video of the Week: Spiral Stakes with Kitten's Cat, Parlor, and Soglio

The Kentucky Derby 2017 prep races are starting to get serious with the stretch out to nine furlongs. 

I am not sure how much of an impact the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park will have since it is run on all-weather footing but the winner will have enough points to compete in the Derby. 




Saturday, March 18, 2017

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Gunnevera moves to the top of the heap

Mastery, my top ranked Kentucky Derby 2017 since November 2016, looked sensational in his San Felipe return but the unbeaten colt sustained a condylar fracture (left front leg) and is off the Derby trail.



Mastery looked every bit a major Derby contender on Saturday, leaving talented rivals Iliad and Gormley in the dust. With Mastery out and McCraken and Classic Empire working their way back from injury, the road to the Derby is in total disarray.

Tapwrit looked strong visually in the Tampa Bay Derby but there was not much behind him and if anything the Top 4 finishers flattered Sam F. Davis hero McCraken. The latter is my new number one Derby contender by default. 

This week’s Derby points race is the Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park. Bob Baffert has owned this race recently and American Anthem is his entrant this year. The lightly raced colt is the morning line favorite under Mile Smith.

Other Rebel contenders include Uncontested (Smarty Jones winner), Petrov (Southwest runner-up), Untrapped (Risen Star runner-up), and Royal Mo (Robert Lewis winner).


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 3-18-17)

#1 - GUNNEVERA

#2 - McCraken

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Practical Joke

#5 - Royal Mo

#6 - Battalion Runner

#7 - Tapwrit

#8 - Irish War Cry

#9 - El Areeb

#10 - Gormley

#11 - Classic Empire


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Friday, March 17, 2017

HRN Handicapping Video of the Week: Rebel Stakes with American Anthem and Petrov

The road to Kentucky Derby 2017 makes another stop at Oaklawn Park and American Anthem is the morning line favorite for trainer Bob Baffert. 


Kentucky Derby 2017 Prep Race Video: San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby Recap + Rebel Stakes Preview

My longtime top ranked Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Mastery made a successful return to the races in the San Felipe Stakes on March 11 but jockey Mike Smith pulled him up shortly after the finish line and he is off the Derby trail with a condylar fracture.

Tapwrit ran away with the Tampa Bay Derby and flattered the form of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (won by McCraken).

This week's Derby prep is the Rebel Stakes from Oaklawn Park and trainer Bob Baffert's American Anthem is the one to beat.

Santa Anita Park Winter Meet Recap (March 9-12)

Thursday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: March 9

Fast main track and firm turf course. One wire-to-wire winner on dirt at five furlongs. The winning turf course running styles were a front runner at nine furlongs, a stalker at one mile, and a patient runner at one mile (rail at 20 feet).




Hat trick for Flavien PratKent Desormeaux booted home two turf route winners.

Farhaan had no chance to catch crawling front runner Prospect Park in the grassy second race at nine furlongs but he ended up a clear 2nd in his first SoCal start for Phil D’Amato.

Sharp Samurai looked good breaking his maiden as a first time gelding Feb 10 and I thought he had a decent chance in Thursday’s allowance feature (7th race) but he was in too tough against SA Derby hopefuls Battle of Midway and Reach the World.

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: March 10

Fast main track and firm turf course. Four wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8.5f, 8f, 7f, 6.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a dueling front runner down the hill and two downhill stalkers (rail at 30 feet).

Flavien Prat booted home a pair. Doug O’Neill saddled two winners.  


You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...

Today's Racing Digest Handicapping Video: Santa Margarita 2017 with Vale Dori and Finest City

My Today's Racing Digest Santa Anita video for Saturday, March 18 is the Grade I Santa Margarita featuring Vale Dori and Finest City.


Saturday, March 11, 2017

Handicapping Video of the Week: Grade I Kilroe Mile with Bolo + What a View

It is Big Cap Day at Santa Anita Park and the G1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile is one of the most interesting supporting races on an exceptional 11-race program.

The Kilroe Mile attracted seven horses and all of the entrants have a fighting chance.

The Top 3 finishers from the Arcadia are back (Bolo, What a View, Conquest Enforcer) and joining them in the starting gate are Bal a Bali, Flamboyant, Dortmund, and Ring Weekend.


Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Mastery returns in San Felipe

Gunnevera was the road to Kentucky Derby 2017 star of last week with a powerful late running victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 4.



Three Rules carved out solid fractions in the FOY and was chased by Holy Bull winner Irish War Cry, Takaful, and Made You Look, and the latter trio retreated to the back of the pack.

Meanwhile, Gunnevera and Javier Castellano were enjoying the scenery from 10th and last before unleashing a strong late run to cross the line 5+ lengths in front.

Practical Joke rallied from 7th and fought hard to edge a very game Three Rules for the place. It was another six lengths back to Talk Logistics in 4th.

The Gotham was supposed to be a walk in the park for El Areeb but his rider Trevor McCarthy made an early decision to go the front and there was no turning back. He was hounded throughout by True Timber, and eventual winner J Boys Echo took full advantage of the lively fractions and rolled home by 3.5 lengths (102 BSF).

Stalker Cloud Computing was clearly second best in the Gotham and El Areeb held the show in a disappointing performance that can be partly attributed to riding tactics.

Before anyone gets too excited about the Gotham, check out the 0-for-40 Kentucky Derby record for Gotham participants since 1980. 

Two big Derby preps on tap this week beginning with the much anticipated return of Mastery in the San Felipe. He has been my top ranked Derby contender for many months and looks ready to roll off the bench for Bob Baffert.

2-time graded route winner Gormley and impressive G2 San Vicente hero Iliad figure to make Mastery work hard for the money.

The Tampa Bay Derby is a wide open affair and trainer Todd Pletcher has a pair of contenders including Sam F. Davis runner-up Tapwrit.


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 3-11-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Gormley

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - McCraken

#5 - Practical Joke

#6 - Gunnevera

#7 - Royal Mo

#8 - Irish War Cry

#9 - El Areeb

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Classic Empire


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Santa Anita Park Winter Meet Recap (March 2-5)

Thursday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: March 2

Fast main track and firm turf course. Only one wire-to-wire winner on dirt (6f). The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at one mile and two downhill stalkers (rail at 20 feet).




Norberto Arroyo Jr. and Peter Miller teamed up to win the late daily double including Calculator in the downhill feature. Steve Miyadi saddled two winners including $53 first timer General Mach Four in the opener.

As mentioned earlier, Miyadi saddled a pair of winners and almost made it three with first timer Catfish Hunter, who finished a troubled 3rd (beaten 2 lengths) under Tyler Baze in the six race for $50k maiden claimers at six furlongs.

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: March 3

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8f, 6.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at one mile, a patient runner at ten furlongs, and a downhill stalker (rail at 30 feet).

No riding or training doubles on Friday.


You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...

Kentucky Derby 2017 prep race video: San Felipe featuring Mastery + Tampa Bay Derby

There are two Kentucky Derby 2017 prep races on tap this week and my top ranked Derby contender Mastery makes his much anticipated return in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park.

 

Saturday, March 4, 2017

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Risen Star Recap + Fountain of Youth and Gotham Preview

Girvin picked up 50 Kentucky Derby 2017 qualifying points and basically guaranteed himself a starting spot on the first Saturday in May with a sharp score in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds on Saturday, Feb 25.



Recent maiden winner Local Hero was all alone on the lead but could not keep it going and Girvin stalked inside, moved out in the lane, and won by a comfortable 2-lengths.

Untrapped was always in contention and easily went by Local Hero for the place. The latter just held the show over Guest Suite with 3-2 favorite another 5+ lengths back in 4th. The winning BSF was a respectable 93 but the feeling here is that the New Orleans Derby contenders are a notch or two below the best.

El Areeb rolled home in the Jerome and Withers and figures to be a very short price in the Gotham. He has looked great all winter for trainer Cal Lynch but he keeps beating the same horses on the inner dirt at Aqueduct so his true Derby standing is unknown at this point.

In the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park, Irish War Cry tries to remain unbeaten. He defeated Gunnevera in the Holy Bull and that rival is back again, along with new shooters Three Rules and Practical Joke.


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 3-4-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - El Areeb

#3 - Gormley

#4 - Irish War Cry

#5 - Three Rules

#7 - McCraken

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Royal Mo

#9 - Battalion Runner

#10 - Classic Empire

#11 - Theroy


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards 

Friday, March 3, 2017

Handicapping video of the week: Fountain of Youth Stakes featuring Irish War Cry

Irish War Cry won the Holy Bull Stakes earlier this year at Gulfstream Park and tries to keep his perfect record intact in the Fountain of Youth on Saturday, March 4.

Gunnevera chased Irish War Cry in the Holy Bull and hopes to get more pace help this time.

Three Rules stretches back out and loves the Gulfstream Park oval, and Practical Joke was one of the top juveniles in the land last year and makes his much anticipated sophomore debut for Chad Brown.


Kentucky Derby 2017 prep race video: Gotham Stakes + Fountain of Youth preview

Two Kentucky Derby 2017 prep races are on the docket this week beginning with the Gotham Stakes from Aqueduct. 

El Areeb easily won the first two Derby preps at Aqueduct (Jerome + Withers) and looks tough to deny in the Gotham as well. 

The Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream features a rematch between the Top 2 Holy Bull finishers, Irish War Cry and Gunnevera.  

Santa Anita Park Winter Meet Recap (Feb 24-26)

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Feb 24

Fast main track and firm turf course. Only one wire-to-wire on dirt (7f). The winning turf course running styles were a front runner at nine furlongs, a stalker at ten furlongs, and a patient runner down the dip (rail at 30 feet).

Joe Talamo booted home the early double.




Saturday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Feb 25
Fast main track and firm turf course. Three wire-to-wire sprint winners on dirt (5.5f, 7f, 6f). The winning turf course running styles were a downhill presser, a front runner at ten furlongs, and a downhill closer.

In a virtual replay of Friday, Joe Talamo booted home a pair.

Sunday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Feb 26
Fast main track and firm turf course. The two downhill turf sprints were moved to the main track. Four wire-to-wire sprint winners on dirt (7f, 6.5f, 6f, 6f). The lone turf race at one mile was nabbed by a front runner (rail at 20 feet).

Hat trick for Tyler Baze. Doug O’Neill saddled two winners including Avanti Bello in the Tiznow.

Longshot Jockey: Rito Almanza. Rides for Doug O’Neill and guided home Latest Craze ($17.40) for O’Neill on Feb 26.

A couple of claims worth following. Phil D’Amato took Basinca out of the third race for $20k. Peter Miller reached out and nabbed show finisher Moments Notiz out of the finale for $6,250.


My daily Santa Anita Park fulls cards are available at The Runaway Horse