Check out my Florida Derby 2018 video analysis for Today's Racing Digest.
Friday, March 30, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Audible Ready to Roll in Florida Derby
Audible, yet another Kentucky Derby 2018 hopeful for trainer Todd Pletcher, is the likely favorite in a possible field of ten in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, March 31.
Audible rallied from far back to finish 3rd in his dirt sprint unveiling at Belmont Park last September, and he has done nothing wrong since. After his debut, he rallied to defeat New York-bred foes at one mile at Aqueduct in November, and dusted three rivals in an off the turf affair at a flat mile at Aqueduct in December. He made his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4, and was an emphatic 5-1/2 length winner after stalking moderate fractions.
Remsen Stakes hero Catholic Boy, most recently 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, might be the biggest threat to Audible. He is training forwardly and figures to enjoy the nine furlong distance of the Florida Derby.
Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power, the 1-2 finishers in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, are also expected to contest the Florida Derby, along with Fire When Ready, Millionaire Runner, Mississippi, Speed Franco, Storm Runner, and Tip Sheet.
The other Kentucky Derby points race this weekend is the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai on Saturday, March 25. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn, fresh off a victory in the Patton Stakes, is the marquee name for trainer Aidan O’Brien. The Kentucky Derby has been his target for many months. Reride leaves the states after a pair of New Mexico stakes wins for Steve Asmussen. He easily defeated Runaway Ghost in the Mine That Derby in his last start, and that runner looked good winning the Sunland Derby last weekend. Gold Town is the top local hope for Godolphin, and they have every intention of bringing him to Kentucky if he earns enough Derby points.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 24-25:
Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds, 3-24-18; 146 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
The opening quarter of a mile (22.97) tells the LA Derby story. Eventual winner Noble Indy added blinkers and was a length back early, and 2-3 finishers Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack were at the back of the pack in 9th and 10th place in the early stages. It looked like the aforementioned closers would sweep the exacta, but Noble Indy and John Velazquez had other plans. The Todd Pletcher trainee was passed by the two late runners in the stretch, but came again to gain the advantage by a neck at the wire. This was the kind of gritty, prominent throughout performance that you like to see in a Derby contender. The top three finishers were 7+ clear of the rest of the field, and Noble Indy was the only early runner around at the end. Snapper Sinclair chased and faded in a disappointing effort. Ditto Bravazo, but he has enough Derby qualifying points if Lukas and company opt to run on the first Saturday in May. I don’t know how strong this race from top to bottom, but Noble Indy ran a quality race and still has upside with only four starts to his name. My Boy Jack is the kind of closer that can make some noise in the Derby for Team Desormeaux. He currently has 32 Derby points and is on the bubble with seven points races left on the docket.
Sunland Derby (Sunland Park, 3-25-18; 152 Final Rating)
Runaway Ghost was the top local hope in the Sunland Derby, and the bet-down Ghostzapper colt did not let down his backers. His Today’s Racing Digest performance ratings jumped up in his two local stakes starts earlier this year, and he kicked his game up another notch on Sunday. He dueled on the lead in his first two outings this year, but jockey Tracy Hebert was more patient from an outer post position this time. He was a wide 8th early, steadily advanced to 4th after the six furlong mark, opened up a commanding lead in the lane, and easily held off Steve Asmussen’s late runner Dream Baby Dream (blinkers on). The latter was six lengths clear of show finisher Peace. High percentage trainer Todd Fincher conditions Runaway Ghost, and he has done a very nice job preparing his charge for the Derby. He will get a class and distance test under the Twin Spires, and his newfound running style versatility is an asset.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Instilled Regard has now worked five times since finishing a flat 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, and he checked in just behind recent LA Derby hero Noble Indy in New Orleans in that race. His most recent move was a seven furlong work in company with Shackleford Banks on March 25. He was at least sixteen lengths behind his workmate before passing him at the wire. He will have his final Derby prep in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Sam F. Davis hero and Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Flameaway drilled a half-mile bullet in 48.95 (1/36) at Palm Meadows Training Center on March 25. The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7 is his next assignment.
Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip got back to work for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. He breezed a half-mile in 48.40 (3/55) at Tampa Bay Downs on March 24. He will wrap up his Derby preparations in the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial.
Finally, Gronkowski will not be shipped to the US for a Derby prep start after all. Trainer Jeremy Noseda was reportedly looking at the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial, but will instead enter his Derby hopeful in the Burradon Stakes on March 30 at Newcastle. Churchill Downs added a European road to the Derby points race series this year, and Gronkowski can secure a starting spot on the first Saturday in May if he finishes 1st or 2nd on March 30.
Speed figures courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.00 (1/93) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He started as my top ranked Derby contender when I began my list last September, and he has never left that position. He has done everything you want to see in a Derby contender up to this point. He won his first two sprints last summer including the Del Mar Futurity. He stretched out and blew away his rivals in the G1 FrontRunner, and he never gave up despite a very wide trip from an outer post in the BC Juvenile (finished 3rd). In his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 10, he did everything asked of him and more while not fully cranked. He fought hard throughout and was placed first following a late stretch bumping incident with McKinzie, and the show finisher was far back. His first workout since the San Felipe was a strong half-mile bullet on March 26, and I fully expect him to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Derby Points (64)
(2) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.40 (1/116) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: Could he be the next Silver Charm for Baffert? He can be brilliant, like he was in his big debut win, and in his razor sharp off the pace tally in the G3 Sham (blinkers off). He also showed that he is not afraid to battle hard throughout, like he did in the G1 Los Al Futurity (placed first via disqualification), and in the San Felipe (finished 1st but placed 2nd via disqualification). He has worked twice since the San Felipe, including a five furlong bullet on March 26. He is in need of a less eventful race in his final Derby prep, and it looks like he will knock heads with Bolt d’Oro again in the Santa Anita Derby.
Derby Points (40)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.39 (3/30) at Palm Beach Downs on March 24.
Comments: After rallying for the show in his dirt sprint debut, he has rattled off three straight wins. In his last start at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull on Feb. 3, he stepped up to face quality foes, and he was up to the task in a sharp 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. The Florida Derby on March 31 will be his final Kentucky Derby points race.
Derby Points (10)
(4) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1.01.45 (5/36) at Palm Meadows on March 24.
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: He is still only a winner of one race, but what a win it was. In his maiden victory in the BC Juvenile, he blew the doors off of quality foes Solomini and Bolt d’Oro, and that visually impressive effort garnered him the Eclipse Award for outstanding 2-year-old. Prior to the BC Juvenile, he finished 2nd in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. He made his much anticipated 3-year-old bow in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and he ended up a flat 3rd in a race he probably needed. He will need to show much more in his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(5) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.00 (8/93) at Santa Anita on March 26.
Comments: Always a bridesmaid and never a bride in the stakes ranks. He was 2nd to romping winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split a razor sharp Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity. He got sick over the winter, and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. In his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17, jockey Flavien Prat seemed to want the lead, but he was not quick enough early, so he stalked the pace inside. He briefly got stuck behind weakening front runner Title Ready in early stretch, and he battled hard to the end while outmaneuvering late runner Combatant for the place. He should have gotten a ton out of the Rebel Stakes and might move forward in his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(6) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.46 (8/58) at Gulfstream Park on March 25.
Comments: He won two stakes races as a juvenile, the With Anticipation on turf at Saratoga, and the Remsen Stakes at a mile and an eighth on dirt at Aqueduct. He made his first start as a 3-year-old in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10, and he rallied into tepid splits and finished a respectable 2nd in a race he probably needed. He will complete his Derby points race road in the Florida Derby on March 31, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will replace Manny Franco in the irons.
Derby Points (14)
(7) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and edging graded winner Instilled Regard for the show in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. He added blinkers in the Louisiana Derby and was in the hunt throughout. He was passed in the stretch but came again to secure the victory in a determined effort under John Velazquez. He has completed his road to the Derby race schedule and will begin preparing for the biggest test of his short career on first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (110)
(8) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in :59.60 (2/118) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He is making up for lost time after failing to start as a juvenile. He was an impressive debut winner in an extended sprint at Santa Anita on Feb. 18, and made short work of his four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns at the same venue on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He is obviously very talented but has only raced twice and is definitely playing catch up at this stage. He drilled a half-mile bullet on March 20, and worked fast again at Santa Anita on March 26. Next up is the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 14.
(9) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Comments: The unraced 2-year-old began his career with an easy dirt sprint win at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13. He stretched out and easily took down four rivals in an optional claiming route at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 15, and looked very good winning his first stakes start in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. In the Rebel, he attended the pace outside, bid for the lead turning for home, and pulled clear for a 3-1/2 length victory under jockey Luis Saez. He will complete his road to the Derby in the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (13/36) at Palm Meadows on March 23.
Comments: With Avery Island out with an injury, he is McLaughlin’s last Derby hope. Following a game show finish in the Champagne at Belmont Park last fall, he captured a productive renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, Bravazo). He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his G2 Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a big win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep. He is bred to handle nine furlongs at the very least, and might be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.91 (65/96) at Gulfstream Park on March 24.
Comments: He won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year with a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating, and earned the same number in his Holy Bull place finish, and his Gotham show finish. He was part of my original “exceptional eleven” last September, so I have a soft spot for him, plus his sire Union Rags was my 2012 Derby-Belmont horse. It appears that he is a notch below the best at this stage, and his preferred distance is anyone’s guess. He seems to like Keeneland, and will wrap up his road to the Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes in Lexington, Kentucky on April 7.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Instilled Regard - 19 points, (13) Combatant - 22 points, (14) Promises Fulfilled - 52 points, (15) My Boy Jack - 32 points, (16) Quip - 50 points, (17) Lone Sailor - 42 points, (18) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (19) Bravazo - 54 points, (20) Runaway Ghost - 50 points.
Audible rallied from far back to finish 3rd in his dirt sprint unveiling at Belmont Park last September, and he has done nothing wrong since. After his debut, he rallied to defeat New York-bred foes at one mile at Aqueduct in November, and dusted three rivals in an off the turf affair at a flat mile at Aqueduct in December. He made his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4, and was an emphatic 5-1/2 length winner after stalking moderate fractions.
Remsen Stakes hero Catholic Boy, most recently 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, might be the biggest threat to Audible. He is training forwardly and figures to enjoy the nine furlong distance of the Florida Derby.
Promises Fulfilled and Strike Power, the 1-2 finishers in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, are also expected to contest the Florida Derby, along with Fire When Ready, Millionaire Runner, Mississippi, Speed Franco, Storm Runner, and Tip Sheet.
The other Kentucky Derby points race this weekend is the UAE Derby at Meydan in Dubai on Saturday, March 25. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner Mendelssohn, fresh off a victory in the Patton Stakes, is the marquee name for trainer Aidan O’Brien. The Kentucky Derby has been his target for many months. Reride leaves the states after a pair of New Mexico stakes wins for Steve Asmussen. He easily defeated Runaway Ghost in the Mine That Derby in his last start, and that runner looked good winning the Sunland Derby last weekend. Gold Town is the top local hope for Godolphin, and they have every intention of bringing him to Kentucky if he earns enough Derby points.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 24-25:
Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds, 3-24-18; 146 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
The opening quarter of a mile (22.97) tells the LA Derby story. Eventual winner Noble Indy added blinkers and was a length back early, and 2-3 finishers Lone Sailor and My Boy Jack were at the back of the pack in 9th and 10th place in the early stages. It looked like the aforementioned closers would sweep the exacta, but Noble Indy and John Velazquez had other plans. The Todd Pletcher trainee was passed by the two late runners in the stretch, but came again to gain the advantage by a neck at the wire. This was the kind of gritty, prominent throughout performance that you like to see in a Derby contender. The top three finishers were 7+ clear of the rest of the field, and Noble Indy was the only early runner around at the end. Snapper Sinclair chased and faded in a disappointing effort. Ditto Bravazo, but he has enough Derby qualifying points if Lukas and company opt to run on the first Saturday in May. I don’t know how strong this race from top to bottom, but Noble Indy ran a quality race and still has upside with only four starts to his name. My Boy Jack is the kind of closer that can make some noise in the Derby for Team Desormeaux. He currently has 32 Derby points and is on the bubble with seven points races left on the docket.
Sunland Derby (Sunland Park, 3-25-18; 152 Final Rating)
Runaway Ghost was the top local hope in the Sunland Derby, and the bet-down Ghostzapper colt did not let down his backers. His Today’s Racing Digest performance ratings jumped up in his two local stakes starts earlier this year, and he kicked his game up another notch on Sunday. He dueled on the lead in his first two outings this year, but jockey Tracy Hebert was more patient from an outer post position this time. He was a wide 8th early, steadily advanced to 4th after the six furlong mark, opened up a commanding lead in the lane, and easily held off Steve Asmussen’s late runner Dream Baby Dream (blinkers on). The latter was six lengths clear of show finisher Peace. High percentage trainer Todd Fincher conditions Runaway Ghost, and he has done a very nice job preparing his charge for the Derby. He will get a class and distance test under the Twin Spires, and his newfound running style versatility is an asset.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Instilled Regard has now worked five times since finishing a flat 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds, and he checked in just behind recent LA Derby hero Noble Indy in New Orleans in that race. His most recent move was a seven furlong work in company with Shackleford Banks on March 25. He was at least sixteen lengths behind his workmate before passing him at the wire. He will have his final Derby prep in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Sam F. Davis hero and Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Flameaway drilled a half-mile bullet in 48.95 (1/36) at Palm Meadows Training Center on March 25. The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7 is his next assignment.
Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip got back to work for trainer Rodolphe Brisset. He breezed a half-mile in 48.40 (3/55) at Tampa Bay Downs on March 24. He will wrap up his Derby preparations in the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial.
Finally, Gronkowski will not be shipped to the US for a Derby prep start after all. Trainer Jeremy Noseda was reportedly looking at the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial, but will instead enter his Derby hopeful in the Burradon Stakes on March 30 at Newcastle. Churchill Downs added a European road to the Derby points race series this year, and Gronkowski can secure a starting spot on the first Saturday in May if he finishes 1st or 2nd on March 30.
Speed figures courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.00 (1/93) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He started as my top ranked Derby contender when I began my list last September, and he has never left that position. He has done everything you want to see in a Derby contender up to this point. He won his first two sprints last summer including the Del Mar Futurity. He stretched out and blew away his rivals in the G1 FrontRunner, and he never gave up despite a very wide trip from an outer post in the BC Juvenile (finished 3rd). In his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 10, he did everything asked of him and more while not fully cranked. He fought hard throughout and was placed first following a late stretch bumping incident with McKinzie, and the show finisher was far back. His first workout since the San Felipe was a strong half-mile bullet on March 26, and I fully expect him to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Derby Points (64)
(2) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.40 (1/116) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: Could he be the next Silver Charm for Baffert? He can be brilliant, like he was in his big debut win, and in his razor sharp off the pace tally in the G3 Sham (blinkers off). He also showed that he is not afraid to battle hard throughout, like he did in the G1 Los Al Futurity (placed first via disqualification), and in the San Felipe (finished 1st but placed 2nd via disqualification). He has worked twice since the San Felipe, including a five furlong bullet on March 26. He is in need of a less eventful race in his final Derby prep, and it looks like he will knock heads with Bolt d’Oro again in the Santa Anita Derby.
Derby Points (40)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.39 (3/30) at Palm Beach Downs on March 24.
Comments: After rallying for the show in his dirt sprint debut, he has rattled off three straight wins. In his last start at Gulfstream Park in the Holy Bull on Feb. 3, he stepped up to face quality foes, and he was up to the task in a sharp 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. The Florida Derby on March 31 will be his final Kentucky Derby points race.
Derby Points (10)
(4) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1.01.45 (5/36) at Palm Meadows on March 24.
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Comments: He is still only a winner of one race, but what a win it was. In his maiden victory in the BC Juvenile, he blew the doors off of quality foes Solomini and Bolt d’Oro, and that visually impressive effort garnered him the Eclipse Award for outstanding 2-year-old. Prior to the BC Juvenile, he finished 2nd in the Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. He made his much anticipated 3-year-old bow in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, and he ended up a flat 3rd in a race he probably needed. He will need to show much more in his final Derby prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(5) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.00 (8/93) at Santa Anita on March 26.
Comments: Always a bridesmaid and never a bride in the stakes ranks. He was 2nd to romping winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split a razor sharp Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity. He got sick over the winter, and returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. In his 3-year-old debut in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park on March 17, jockey Flavien Prat seemed to want the lead, but he was not quick enough early, so he stalked the pace inside. He briefly got stuck behind weakening front runner Title Ready in early stretch, and he battled hard to the end while outmaneuvering late runner Combatant for the place. He should have gotten a ton out of the Rebel Stakes and might move forward in his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(6) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.46 (8/58) at Gulfstream Park on March 25.
Comments: He won two stakes races as a juvenile, the With Anticipation on turf at Saratoga, and the Remsen Stakes at a mile and an eighth on dirt at Aqueduct. He made his first start as a 3-year-old in the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10, and he rallied into tepid splits and finished a respectable 2nd in a race he probably needed. He will complete his Derby points race road in the Florida Derby on March 31, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will replace Manny Franco in the irons.
Derby Points (14)
(7) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and edging graded winner Instilled Regard for the show in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. He added blinkers in the Louisiana Derby and was in the hunt throughout. He was passed in the stretch but came again to secure the victory in a determined effort under John Velazquez. He has completed his road to the Derby race schedule and will begin preparing for the biggest test of his short career on first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (110)
(8) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in :59.60 (2/118) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: He is making up for lost time after failing to start as a juvenile. He was an impressive debut winner in an extended sprint at Santa Anita on Feb. 18, and made short work of his four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns at the same venue on March 11 (141 Final Rating). He is obviously very talented but has only raced twice and is definitely playing catch up at this stage. He drilled a half-mile bullet on March 20, and worked fast again at Santa Anita on March 26. Next up is the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 14.
(9) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Comments: The unraced 2-year-old began his career with an easy dirt sprint win at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13. He stretched out and easily took down four rivals in an optional claiming route at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 15, and looked very good winning his first stakes start in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. In the Rebel, he attended the pace outside, bid for the lead turning for home, and pulled clear for a 3-1/2 length victory under jockey Luis Saez. He will complete his road to the Derby in the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (13/36) at Palm Meadows on March 23.
Comments: With Avery Island out with an injury, he is McLaughlin’s last Derby hope. Following a game show finish in the Champagne at Belmont Park last fall, he captured a productive renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, Bravazo). He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his G2 Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a big win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep. He is bred to handle nine furlongs at the very least, and might be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.91 (65/96) at Gulfstream Park on March 24.
Comments: He won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year with a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating, and earned the same number in his Holy Bull place finish, and his Gotham show finish. He was part of my original “exceptional eleven” last September, so I have a soft spot for him, plus his sire Union Rags was my 2012 Derby-Belmont horse. It appears that he is a notch below the best at this stage, and his preferred distance is anyone’s guess. He seems to like Keeneland, and will wrap up his road to the Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes in Lexington, Kentucky on April 7.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Instilled Regard - 19 points, (13) Combatant - 22 points, (14) Promises Fulfilled - 52 points, (15) My Boy Jack - 32 points, (16) Quip - 50 points, (17) Lone Sailor - 42 points, (18) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (19) Bravazo - 54 points, (20) Runaway Ghost - 50 points.
Saturday, March 24, 2018
Sunland Derby analysis by Dr. Atlas
Sunday’s eleventh race (3-25-18) at Sunland Park is the Gr. III, $800,000 Sunland Derby. This race will consist of three-year olds running a mile and an eighth over the main track.
Post Time – 7:15pm ET
#4 – Hollywood Star (6-1): Trained by Dale Romans and ridden by Robby Albarado
(Sire: Malibu Moon by Dam: Hollywood Story)
In his first start of the year, Hollywood Star finished a distant fourth in the Gr.III Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs back on February 10th. The dark bay has registered several strong works since his last race and Romans horses always seem to improve second off the layoff. Robby Albarado will re-take the mount and look to get Hollywood Star back in the winner’s circle.
Plays:
$10 to Win, $20 to Place #4
$2 Exacta Box 3/4/10
Total = $42
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and will complete his Masters in Business Administration from RPI this May (2018).
Post Time – 7:15pm ET
#4 – Hollywood Star (6-1): Trained by Dale Romans and ridden by Robby Albarado
(Sire: Malibu Moon by Dam: Hollywood Story)
In his first start of the year, Hollywood Star finished a distant fourth in the Gr.III Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs back on February 10th. The dark bay has registered several strong works since his last race and Romans horses always seem to improve second off the layoff. Robby Albarado will re-take the mount and look to get Hollywood Star back in the winner’s circle.
Plays:
$10 to Win, $20 to Place #4
$2 Exacta Box 3/4/10
Total = $42
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and will complete his Masters in Business Administration from RPI this May (2018).
Kentucky Derby 2018 Report: Noble Indy Ready to Rumble in Louisiana Derby
Noble Indy, one of a handful of Kentucky Derby 2018 hopefuls for trainer Todd Pletcher, appears ready for a breakthrough performance in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 24.
Noble Indy smartly won his first two outings at Gulfstream Park, including a two turn optional claiming score to kick off his sophomore campaign on Jan. 11. He shipped to Fair Grounds for his stakes debut in the Risen Star on Feb. 17, and he ended up outnodding Instilled Regard in an even show finish. Following the Risen Star, the Pletcher runner returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida, and is back in New Orleans after a trio of solid workouts for this engagement. He puts blinkers on for the first time and might sit the garden spot trip under John Velazquez.
Risen Star upsetter Bravazo is back for more for Wayne Lukas. He drew the rail and might go straight to the front under Gary Stevens. He put an exclamation point on his LA Derby preparations with a bullet workout at Oaklawn Park on March 18.
Snapper Sinclair battled Bravazo from start to finish in the Risen Star and came up a nose short. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for trainer Steve Asmussen, and he looms a LA Derby pace factor at the very least.
My Boy Jack rode the good inside portion of the track to a sharp off the pace victory in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 19. He sure liked the mud that day, and he gets pace to chase in the LA Derby for Team Desormeaux. Prior to the Southwest, he was a distant 3rd behind McKinzie in the Sham Stakes.
The LA Derby field is completed by maiden Marmello, Risen Star also-ran Givemeaminit, Southwest also-ran Retirement Fund, maiden claiming winner Hyndford, and recent local allowance 1-2 finishers Dark Templar and Lone Sailor.
The other Kentucky Derby points race this weekend is the Sunland Derby on Sunday, March 25. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Sunland showcase four times (Collected, Chitu, Governor Charlie, Wanna Runner), and recent Santa Anita Park maiden route winner Restoring Hope will be his representative this year. New York Central and Dream Baby Dream are expected to enter for trainer Steve Asmussen. Prince Lucky could ship to New Mexico for Todd Pletcher, and Wayne Lukas has 6th place Southwest finisher Kentucky Club. All Out Blitz, Dark Vader, and Runaway Ghost are also possible entrants. The winner of the main event at Sunland Park will receive 50 Derby points.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 17:
Rebel Stakes (Oaklawn Park, 3-17-18; 153 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Magnum Moon was always in a good spot tracking front runner Title Ready. He pounced on the weakening leader in the lane, and cruised across the line a few lengths in front of Solomini. The latter had an uncomfortable inside trip. He tried hard throughout and gamely held off Combatant for the place. The Baffert trainee got sick earlier this year and was making his first start of the season. Combatantsettled for a minor award for the fourth time in a Derby points race, and he was the only one making up ground from the back of the pack. Title Ready ended up 4th, and Sporting Chance was a wide 5th. Magnum Moon is now 3-for-3 for Todd Pletcher. The unraced 2-year-old owns fine tactical speed and a decent finishing kick. His sire Malibu Moon was responsible for Kentucky Derby 2013 winner Orb.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (Turfway Park, 3-17-18; 150 Final Rating)
Blended Citizen now has 22 Derby points after nipping Pony Up by a neck in Turfway’s all-weather showcase event at a mile and an eighth. Arawak ended up a decent 3rd. The winner wore blinkers for the first time for trainer by Doug O’Neill, and I would not be surprised to see him in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7, or the Lexington Stakes at that same venue a week later. He was not an original Triple Crown nominee. He can be made eligible at the tune of $6,000.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Avery Island is officially off the Derby trail for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. As reported last week, the Godolphin colorbearer was sent to Rood and Riddle Clinic for evaluation after returning lame from a recent workout. He will be out for 60-90 days with an undisclosed injury, and will not require surgery.
Instilled Regard has worked four times since finishing a flat 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. He fired a five furlong bullet on March 7, and his most recent move was an easy six furlong breeze in 1:17.80 (16/17) at Santa Anita Park on March 18. He will most likely have his final Derby prep in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Promises Fulfilled had his first workout since his surprise victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He breezed a half-mile in 48.16 (19/94) at Gulfstream Park for trainer Dale Romans on March 17.
Fountain of Youth runner-up Strike Power also returned to work for trainer Mark Hennig. He breezed a half-mile in 49.21 (19/30) at Gulfstream Park on March 16.
There is a bit of movement on my list this week. Solomini drops from second to fifth, and Instilled Regard drops off to make room for impressive Rebel hero Magnum Moon. The former exits a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star and will try to bounce back in the Santa Anita Derby in April.
Noble Indy capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Comments: He started as my top ranked Derby contender when I began my list last September, and he remains on top of the heap after a strong effort in his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 10. In the San Felipe, he did everything asked of him and more while not fully cranked. He was placed first following a late stretch bumping incident with McKinzie, and the show finisher was far back. He should be ready to roll in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Derby Points (64)
(2) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Comments: He has turned into a gritty street fighter for Baffert, and reminds me a bit of Silver Charm. He can be brilliant, like his big debut win, and his razor sharp off the pace tally in the G3 Sham. In his other two races, he battled hard throughout and was placed first via DQ in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and he gave Bolt d’Oro all he could handle in the San Felipe, but had his number taken down after bumping with that foe in deep stretch (143 Final Rating). He is in need of a less strenuous race in his final Derby prep, and he is definitely one of the top Derby contenders at this stage. It looks like the Santa Anita Derby will be his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (40)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.50 (3/10) at Palm Beach Downs on March 17.
Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. The Florida Derby on March 31 will be his last Kentucky Derby prep race, and we should learn much more about him in that affair.
Derby Points (10)
(4) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.90 (14/81) at Palm Meadows on March 17.
Comments: Too much was expected of him in his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He definitely did not bring his "A" game that day in a flat show finish, and he probably needed the outing. Granted, he was not the same horse in his sophomore bow that we saw in the BC Juvenile, but, on the positive side of the ledger, he has a solid 2-year-old foundation, is in good shape on the Derby points list, and appears healthy and sound. He returned to the work tab on March 17, and could show much more in his next start in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(5) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Comments: He has had a bit of a rocky road to the Derby. After winning his dirt sprint debut at Del Mar last summer, he was 2nd to runaway winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split an impressive Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity. After that, he got sick over the winter, and finally returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. Jockey Flavien Prat seemed to want the lead in his Rebel Stakes return on March 17, but he was not fleet enough early, so he stalked inside. He briefly got stuck behind weakening front runner Title Ready in early stretch, and he battled hard to the end while outmaneuvering late runner Combatant for the place. He should have gotten a ton out of the Rebel Stakes and could move forward in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (34)
(6) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.00 (1/2) at Bridlewood Farm on March 17.
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp surface switching victory in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on 12-2-17. He made his first start as a 3-year-old in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. In his 3-year-old bow, he rallied into tepid splits and finished a respectable 2nd in a race he likely needed. It looks like his connections have settled on the March 31 Florida Derby for his final Derby prep, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will replace Manny Franco in the irons. He probably needs an exacta finish at the end of the month to secure a starting spot under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (14)
(7) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.77 (2/10) at Palm Beach Downs on March 17.
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and landing the show in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. The lightly raced colt most likely needs a top two finish in his final Derby prep in the Louisiana Derby on March 24.
Derby Points (10)
(8) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Comments: Impressive debut extended sprint winner was back in three weeks, and made short work of his four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns in the mud at Santa Anita Park on March 11 (141 Final Rating). The unraced juvenile is obviously very talented but has only raced twice and is definitely playing catch up at this stage. It looks as though he will ship to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
(8) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Comments: Just like Justify, he did not race as a 2-year-old. He started his career with an easy dirt sprint win at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13, and stretched out and easily took down four rivals in an optional claiming route at Tampa Bay on Feb. 15. He made a big splash in his first stakes start in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. In the Rebel, he attended the pace outside, bid for the lead turning for home, and pulled clear for a 3.5 length victory under Luis Saez. The inexperienced colt will complete his road to the Derby in the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: He showed plenty of promise as a juvenile in the Champagne at Belmont Park last fall. He was part of contested pace that day, dropped back to stalk, and held the show in a game effort. He followed that up with a determined win in a key renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, Bravazo). He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his G2 Holy Bull return, but bounced back in a big way from the outside post in the Gotham on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep. He is bred to handle nine furlongs at the very least, and might be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: Last year’s G1 Breeders’ Futurity (140 Final Rating) hero at Keeneland began his sophomore campaign with a clear place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to the Holy Bull, and he matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating that day. He entered the Fountain of Youth Stakes but scratched in favor of the Gotham Stakes (one mile) at Aqueduct on March 10. In the Gotham, he rallied to finish a clear 3rd (another 140 Final Rating) while no match to the top two finishers. He is one of four remaining members of my original “exceptional eleven” list fromlast September (along with Bolt d'Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini), so I have a soft spot for him, plus his sire Union Rags was my 2012 Derby-Belmont horse. It appears that Free Drop Billy is a notch below the best, and his preferred distance is anyone’s guess. He will wrap up his road to the Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Instilled Regard - 19 points, (13) Bravazo - 54 points, (14) Promises Fulfilled - 52 points, (15) Quip - 50 points, (16) Flameaway - 30 points, (17) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (18) Combatant - 22 points, (19) Snapper Sinclair - 22 points, (20) My Boy Jack - 12 points.
Noble Indy smartly won his first two outings at Gulfstream Park, including a two turn optional claiming score to kick off his sophomore campaign on Jan. 11. He shipped to Fair Grounds for his stakes debut in the Risen Star on Feb. 17, and he ended up outnodding Instilled Regard in an even show finish. Following the Risen Star, the Pletcher runner returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida, and is back in New Orleans after a trio of solid workouts for this engagement. He puts blinkers on for the first time and might sit the garden spot trip under John Velazquez.
Risen Star upsetter Bravazo is back for more for Wayne Lukas. He drew the rail and might go straight to the front under Gary Stevens. He put an exclamation point on his LA Derby preparations with a bullet workout at Oaklawn Park on March 18.
Snapper Sinclair battled Bravazo from start to finish in the Risen Star and came up a nose short. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for trainer Steve Asmussen, and he looms a LA Derby pace factor at the very least.
My Boy Jack rode the good inside portion of the track to a sharp off the pace victory in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on Feb. 19. He sure liked the mud that day, and he gets pace to chase in the LA Derby for Team Desormeaux. Prior to the Southwest, he was a distant 3rd behind McKinzie in the Sham Stakes.
The LA Derby field is completed by maiden Marmello, Risen Star also-ran Givemeaminit, Southwest also-ran Retirement Fund, maiden claiming winner Hyndford, and recent local allowance 1-2 finishers Dark Templar and Lone Sailor.
The other Kentucky Derby points race this weekend is the Sunland Derby on Sunday, March 25. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Sunland showcase four times (Collected, Chitu, Governor Charlie, Wanna Runner), and recent Santa Anita Park maiden route winner Restoring Hope will be his representative this year. New York Central and Dream Baby Dream are expected to enter for trainer Steve Asmussen. Prince Lucky could ship to New Mexico for Todd Pletcher, and Wayne Lukas has 6th place Southwest finisher Kentucky Club. All Out Blitz, Dark Vader, and Runaway Ghost are also possible entrants. The winner of the main event at Sunland Park will receive 50 Derby points.
Let’s look back at the two Kentucky Derby points races from March 17:
Rebel Stakes (Oaklawn Park, 3-17-18; 153 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating)
Magnum Moon was always in a good spot tracking front runner Title Ready. He pounced on the weakening leader in the lane, and cruised across the line a few lengths in front of Solomini. The latter had an uncomfortable inside trip. He tried hard throughout and gamely held off Combatant for the place. The Baffert trainee got sick earlier this year and was making his first start of the season. Combatantsettled for a minor award for the fourth time in a Derby points race, and he was the only one making up ground from the back of the pack. Title Ready ended up 4th, and Sporting Chance was a wide 5th. Magnum Moon is now 3-for-3 for Todd Pletcher. The unraced 2-year-old owns fine tactical speed and a decent finishing kick. His sire Malibu Moon was responsible for Kentucky Derby 2013 winner Orb.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (Turfway Park, 3-17-18; 150 Final Rating)
Blended Citizen now has 22 Derby points after nipping Pony Up by a neck in Turfway’s all-weather showcase event at a mile and an eighth. Arawak ended up a decent 3rd. The winner wore blinkers for the first time for trainer by Doug O’Neill, and I would not be surprised to see him in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7, or the Lexington Stakes at that same venue a week later. He was not an original Triple Crown nominee. He can be made eligible at the tune of $6,000.
In other Kentucky Derby 2018 contender news, Avery Island is officially off the Derby trail for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. As reported last week, the Godolphin colorbearer was sent to Rood and Riddle Clinic for evaluation after returning lame from a recent workout. He will be out for 60-90 days with an undisclosed injury, and will not require surgery.
Instilled Regard has worked four times since finishing a flat 4th in the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds. He fired a five furlong bullet on March 7, and his most recent move was an easy six furlong breeze in 1:17.80 (16/17) at Santa Anita Park on March 18. He will most likely have his final Derby prep in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Promises Fulfilled had his first workout since his surprise victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He breezed a half-mile in 48.16 (19/94) at Gulfstream Park for trainer Dale Romans on March 17.
Fountain of Youth runner-up Strike Power also returned to work for trainer Mark Hennig. He breezed a half-mile in 49.21 (19/30) at Gulfstream Park on March 16.
There is a bit of movement on my list this week. Solomini drops from second to fifth, and Instilled Regard drops off to make room for impressive Rebel hero Magnum Moon. The former exits a disappointing 4th in the Risen Star and will try to bounce back in the Santa Anita Derby in April.
Noble Indy capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Comments: He started as my top ranked Derby contender when I began my list last September, and he remains on top of the heap after a strong effort in his 3-year-old debut in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park on March 10. In the San Felipe, he did everything asked of him and more while not fully cranked. He was placed first following a late stretch bumping incident with McKinzie, and the show finisher was far back. He should be ready to roll in the Santa Anita Derby on April 7.
Derby Points (64)
(2) MCKINZIE (Street Sense - Runway Model, by Petionville)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Mike Pegram, Karl Watson, Paul Weitman)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Sham Stakes, SA, 1-6-18)
Comments: He has turned into a gritty street fighter for Baffert, and reminds me a bit of Silver Charm. He can be brilliant, like his big debut win, and his razor sharp off the pace tally in the G3 Sham. In his other two races, he battled hard throughout and was placed first via DQ in the G1 Los Al Futurity, and he gave Bolt d’Oro all he could handle in the San Felipe, but had his number taken down after bumping with that foe in deep stretch (143 Final Rating). He is in need of a less strenuous race in his final Derby prep, and he is definitely one of the top Derby contenders at this stage. It looks like the Santa Anita Derby will be his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (40)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 156 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.50 (3/10) at Palm Beach Downs on March 17.
Comments: After four lifetime starts, he has a trio of wins and a show finish. He stepped up to face much better foes in his stakes debut in the Holy Bull at the Gulf on Feb. 3, and he was more than up to the task in an effortless 5+ length tally after tracking moderate splits. The Florida Derby on March 31 will be his last Kentucky Derby prep race, and we should learn much more about him in that affair.
Derby Points (10)
(4) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.90 (14/81) at Palm Meadows on March 17.
Comments: Too much was expected of him in his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He definitely did not bring his "A" game that day in a flat show finish, and he probably needed the outing. Granted, he was not the same horse in his sophomore bow that we saw in the BC Juvenile, but, on the positive side of the ledger, he has a solid 2-year-old foundation, is in good shape on the Derby points list, and appears healthy and sound. He returned to the work tab on March 17, and could show much more in his next start in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 7.
Derby Points (34)
(5) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Comments: He has had a bit of a rocky road to the Derby. After winning his dirt sprint debut at Del Mar last summer, he was 2nd to runaway winner Bolt d’Oro in the FrontRunner Stakes, and he split an impressive Good Magic and a very wide Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile. He crossed the line first but had his number taken down in a controversial disqualification in his final juvenile start in the Los Al Futurity. After that, he got sick over the winter, and finally returned to the work tab on Feb. 3. Jockey Flavien Prat seemed to want the lead in his Rebel Stakes return on March 17, but he was not fleet enough early, so he stalked inside. He briefly got stuck behind weakening front runner Title Ready in early stretch, and he battled hard to the end while outmaneuvering late runner Combatant for the place. He should have gotten a ton out of the Rebel Stakes and could move forward in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (34)
(6) CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Jonathan Thomas) - Owner (Robert V. LaPenta)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (Remsen Stakes, AQU, 12-2-17)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.00 (1/2) at Bridlewood Farm on March 17.
Comments: His 3-for-4 juvenile campaign included a sharp surface switching victory in the Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on 12-2-17. He made his first start as a 3-year-old in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 10. In his 3-year-old bow, he rallied into tepid splits and finished a respectable 2nd in a race he likely needed. It looks like his connections have settled on the March 31 Florida Derby for his final Derby prep, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will replace Manny Franco in the irons. He probably needs an exacta finish at the end of the month to secure a starting spot under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.
Derby Points (14)
(7) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 141 (OC, GP, 1-11-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.77 (2/10) at Palm Beach Downs on March 17.
Comments: He won his first two starts at Gulfstream Park before shipping to Fair Grounds and landing the show in his stakes debut in the G2 Risen Star Stakes (140 Final Rating) on Feb. 17. The lightly raced colt most likely needs a top two finish in his final Derby prep in the Louisiana Derby on March 24.
Derby Points (10)
(8) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Maiden Special Weight, SA, 2-18-18)
Comments: Impressive debut extended sprint winner was back in three weeks, and made short work of his four allowance rivals in his first start around two turns in the mud at Santa Anita Park on March 11 (141 Final Rating). The unraced juvenile is obviously very talented but has only raced twice and is definitely playing catch up at this stage. It looks as though he will ship to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
(8) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Comments: Just like Justify, he did not race as a 2-year-old. He started his career with an easy dirt sprint win at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 13, and stretched out and easily took down four rivals in an optional claiming route at Tampa Bay on Feb. 15. He made a big splash in his first stakes start in the Rebel Stakes on March 17. In the Rebel, he attended the pace outside, bid for the lead turning for home, and pulled clear for a 3.5 length victory under Luis Saez. The inexperienced colt will complete his road to the Derby in the Arkansas Derby on April 14.
Derby Points (50)
(10) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: He showed plenty of promise as a juvenile in the Champagne at Belmont Park last fall. He was part of contested pace that day, dropped back to stalk, and held the show in a game effort. He followed that up with a determined win in a key renewal of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (subsequent stakes winners Promises Fulfilled, Reride, Quip, Bravazo). He was a flat 4th from the inside post in his G2 Holy Bull return, but bounced back in a big way from the outside post in the Gotham on March 10. The Wood Memorial on April 7 will be his final Derby prep. He is bred to handle nine furlongs at the very least, and might be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (63)
(11) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Comments: Last year’s G1 Breeders’ Futurity (140 Final Rating) hero at Keeneland began his sophomore campaign with a clear place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 3. He only had four published works prior to the Holy Bull, and he matched his career best 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating that day. He entered the Fountain of Youth Stakes but scratched in favor of the Gotham Stakes (one mile) at Aqueduct on March 10. In the Gotham, he rallied to finish a clear 3rd (another 140 Final Rating) while no match to the top two finishers. He is one of four remaining members of my original “exceptional eleven” list fromlast September (along with Bolt d'Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini), so I have a soft spot for him, plus his sire Union Rags was my 2012 Derby-Belmont horse. It appears that Free Drop Billy is a notch below the best, and his preferred distance is anyone’s guess. He will wrap up his road to the Derby in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 7.
Derby Points (24)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Instilled Regard - 19 points, (13) Bravazo - 54 points, (14) Promises Fulfilled - 52 points, (15) Quip - 50 points, (16) Flameaway - 30 points, (17) Firenze Fire - 29 points, (18) Combatant - 22 points, (19) Snapper Sinclair - 22 points, (20) My Boy Jack - 12 points.
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