Belmont Park will feature a loaded Thursday card on October 1, highlighted by six graded stakes races worth a combined $1.9 million. The unusual Thursday program comes after Belmont canceled its September 26–27 weekend card because of severe weather, with four of the six stakes rescheduled for Thursday.
In this analysis, I takes a fresh look at all six stakes races, revisiting the races that were originally scheduled for the previous weekend and examining the new opportunities created by the rescheduling.
The stakes action includes the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom, Grade 3 Winter Memories, Grade 3 Belmont Turf Sprint, Grade 3 Vosburgh, Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, and Grade 2 Flower Bowl. The distances range from six furlongs to a mile and a half, with races contested on both the main track and turf.
The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic headlines the program, while the Flower Bowl and Vosburgh are both Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.
Race 3: Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes
The third race is the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes, a 6½-furlong sprint on the main track for fillies and mares.
#1 Senza Parole (9-5)
Senza Parole enters this race in good form and has posted her best Today’s Racing Digest numbers in her last two starts, earning a 150 two races back and a 147 last time out.
Those figures are considerably faster than her previous efforts, suggesting that the lightly raced 4-year-old may be improving.
The biggest question is the absence of Lasix. Senza Parole appears to have done her best running with Lasix, although she has won without it in the past. If her recent improvement continues, she could overcome that concern.
#2 Beauty Reigns (3-1)
Beauty Reigns is a late-running mare trained by Bill Mott. She earned a 131 final-time rating when finishing third in the Grade 1 Ballerina last time out.
It was a respectable effort, although she was beaten by more than six lengths.
She also owns a 152 final-time rating from a victory a couple of starts ago with Lasix. Like Senza Parole, however, she will have to race without Lasix here.
#3 Munnings Express (6-1)
Munnings Express has been extremely consistent in dirt sprints.
In 11 starts, she has six wins, three seconds and two thirds, making her one of the most reliable horses in the field.
She won a seven-furlong New York-bred stakes race at Saratoga last time out while racing without Lasix, earning a 129 final-time rating.
She figures to be involved throughout and should be considered a contender.
#4 Queen Jubilee (15-1)
Queen Jubilee has won her last two races, earning final-time ratings of 110 and 128.
The concern is class. She is stepping up to face significantly better competition, and she’ll need another step forward to compete with the top horses in this field.
#5 R Disaster (8-5)
R Disaster is arguably the classiest horse in the field and is a Grade 1 winner.
She won the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs two starts ago with a 153 final-time rating and a 149 pace rating.
Her most recent race was much different. She recorded a 171 pace rating, indicating that she had to move very quickly early while chasing fast fractions. She eventually faded badly, earning just a 105 final-time rating and finishing 15 lengths behind in the Grade 1 Ballerina.
If she gets back to her best form, R Disaster could be difficult to beat. She could also be the horse to catch on the front end.
#6 Paradise City (12-1)
Paradise City earned only a 116 final-time rating in the Ballerina last time out.
She will need to improve substantially to contend with this group.
Race 4: Grade 3 Winter Memories Stakes
The fourth race is the Grade 3 Winter Memories Stakes, a one-mile turf race for 3-year-old fillies.
This is a wide-open event with several interesting contenders, including multiple runners from trainer Chad Brown.
#1 Alone Time (20-1)
Alone Time comes off a close third-place finish in an optional-claiming turf route at Saratoga on August 29.
She earned a 125 final-time rating in that race and could be competitive if she moves forward.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
