Video analysis of the $175,000 Bricks and Mortar Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday, October 10, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Friday, October 9, 2026
Thursday, October 8, 2026
Sycamore Stakes Handicapping Article (10-9-26)
The marathon turf distance should play an important role in the handicapping, particularly because several horses in the field have proven experience at 1½ miles or longer.
Here is a horse-by-horse look at the field.
#1 Goldeneye (30-1)
Goldeneye figures to be one of the primary pace factors from the inside post.
He showed his early speed in the Bowling Green Gold Cup at Kentucky Downs, opening up by nine lengths before weakening to finish fourth, beaten less than three lengths. He has won twice at 1½ miles, so the distance itself isn’t necessarily the issue.
However, his recent final-time ratings don’t stack up particularly well against this field. His best recent figures include a 104 and a 123, which leave him needing a significant improvement.
He also struggled badly in last year’s Sycamore, finishing last and beaten by 50 lengths after failing to make the lead.
#2 Just a Touch (5-2)
Morning line favorite Just a Touch is one of the most intriguing horses in the field.
He has won three of his last four starts, including two victories at 1½ miles—the Cape Henlopen Stakes at Delaware Park and the Colonial Cup at Colonial Downs.
His recent numbers are excellent. He has recorded final-time ratings of 147, 147 and 149 in his three strongest recent turf efforts, while his pace ratings are also competitive.
He is 1-for-1 at Keeneland and has already won with Irad Ortiz aboard.
The major question is his graded-stakes record. He is 0-for-8 in graded stakes, although much of that experience came on dirt. The move to turf has revitalized his career.
#3 Mercante (20-1)
Mercante had an uncomfortable start and finished last in the Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland on Oct. 3.
Prior to that, he pressed the pace from post 11 in a turf route stakes race at Ellis Park and finished sixth, beaten a little more than three lengths. His final-time rating of 138 wasn’t fast enough, although he did record a much better 150 two starts earlier.
The biggest concern is the 1½-mile distance. He is winless in two starts at Keeneland and is 0-for-1 at this distance.
#4 Navy Seal (6-1)
The Bowling Green effort can be forgiven to an extent because the distance appeared to work against him. Cutting back to 1½ miles should allow him to produce a stronger finish.
He has already won at this distance and has two solid efforts at 1½ miles. His third-place finish in the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland is particularly interesting because the race favored closers and Navy Seal was involved in the pace.
He also enters this race with back-to-back bullet workouts at Keeneland, including a turf bullet.
#5 Echo Lane (12-1)
Echo Lane hasn’t raced at Keeneland, but he has finished third in both of his starts at 1½ miles.
His last two races came at 1 3/8 miles, including the Grade 2 United Nations. He finished fourth in both races.
His recent final-time ratings have declined, however. He posted a 158 and 140 in his two starts at 1½ miles, followed by only a 128 and 122 in his last two races.
The distance is not a dealbreaker, but his current form is a bit of a concern.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Sycamore Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (10-9-26)
Video analysis of the Grade 2, $400,000 Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland on Friday, October 9, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Sunday, October 4, 2026
Keeneland Fall Meet Stakes Picks (10-4-26)
Using the speed, pace, class and final-time ratings from Today’s Racing Digest, here are my top selections and horses to use underneath for all three stakes.
Race 8 — Grade 3 Indian Summer Stakes
$350,000 • 5½ Furlongs • Turf • 2-Year-Olds
The Indian Summer has a fairly balanced distance profile at Keeneland. Front runners, pressers and midpack runners have each won approximately 29% of the races at 5½ furlongs, while horses coming from far back have won less than 12%.
There are several horses capable of showing speed, including overseas shipper Adonius (IRE), Fanshell Beach, Cactus Closer, Ciarlatano, Wood Island and Ruiva. With relatively little confirmed closing speed in the field, a horse capable of securing position without getting caught up in a contested pace might have an advantage. A horse shaking loose early could also be dangerous.
Value Play: #7 Wood Island (7-2)
Wood Island is 2-for-2 in his career. He won his debut at Saratoga going 5½ furlongs on dirt, then came right back and won a stakes race at 5½ furlongs on turf.
His figures also took a major jump between those two races. His final-time rating improved from 119 to 138, while his pace rating increased from 113 to 140.
That’s the kind of progression I want to see from a lightly raced 2-year-old.
George Weaver has a 17% win rate with turf sprinters, and Flavien Prat returns to ride. Prat already knows the horse after riding him in his most recent victory.
Race Favorite: #8 Ruiva (7-5)
Ruiva deserves plenty of respect.
She has run well in all three starts, including a seven-length debut victory at Churchill Downs and a third-place finish in a Group 2 turf sprint stakes race at Ascot (27-horse field).
She then finished second in the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar, where she battled throughout and finished well clear of the remainder of the field.
Trainer Wesley Ward has plenty of experience with these types of 2-year-old turf horses, and the addition of Irad Ortiz Jr. makes Ruiva particularly dangerous.
The problem is the price.
At 7-5, you’re being asked to take a very short price on a horse who has already lost her last two starts.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Saturday, October 3, 2026
Oak Leaf Stakes + American Pharoah Stakes Analysis (10-3-26)
The Oak Leaf is a Kentucky Oaks 2027 points race for 2-year-old fillies, while the American Pharoah is a Kentucky Derby 2027 points race for 2-year-olds. Both races also serve as important tests for horses looking to run in the Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Keeneland later this month.
Race 3 — Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes
The Oak Leaf Stakes carries a $200,000 purse and will be contested at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The scheduled post time is 5:01 p.m. Eastern.
1 — Quattro Passi ( 5-2)
Quattro Passi is trained by Bob Baffert and is a $190,000 daughter of Girvin, with Blame as her damsire.
She finished second in her debut, with stablemate Holmby beating her that day. Quattro Passi came back in her second start and romped by more than nine lengths under Mike Smith.
She has drawn outer posts in both of her first two starts but gets the rail here, which should allow her to save ground.
The most encouraging part of her form is her final-time-rating progression. She improved from a 113 in her debut to a 122 in her second start. She also improved while stretching from five furlongs to six furlongs.
Now she’ll have to stretch out again, going from sprint distances to a route, but the improvement pattern is encouraging.
2 — Holmby (9-5)
Holmby is another Baffert trainee and is a $55,000 daughter of Corniche, with Lemon Drop Kid as the damsire.
She won her first two starts, including the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes. She progressed from five furlongs to six furlongs and then seven furlongs before finishing third in the Debutante at Del Mar.
That last race was disappointing, as she was beaten by a little less than eight lengths.
Her final-time ratings also aren’t moving in the right direction. She went from a 120 in her debut to 119 and then 105.
The pedigree suggests she can handle the distance, but at a 9-5 morning-line price, she may take more money than her recent form warrants.
3 — Domain Expansion (20-1)
Domain Expansion is trained by Leonard Powell and is coming off a runner-up finish in her debut at 20-1.
The interesting factor here is that she already has experience around two turns, having raced one mile on turf.
She’ll switch surfaces for this race, however, and remains a maiden.
She earned a 63 Fire Number, 120 CPR and 105 final-time rating last time.
The question is whether she can transfer that turf form to the main track.
4 — Free Closer (6-1)
Michael McCarthy trains Free Closer, with Joel Rosario scheduled to ride.
Her form has been inconsistent. She won her debut, was beaten by about a dozen lengths in her second start, won the CTBA Stakes by eight lengths, and then was beaten by 10 lengths in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante.
Her two best races came at her shortest distances — four-and-a-half and five-and-a-half furlongs. Her two longer races, at six and seven furlongs, resulted in double-digit defeats.
That makes the 1 1/16-mile distance a significant question mark.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Friday, October 2, 2026
Champagne Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (10-3-26)
Video analysis of the Grade 1, $500,000 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday, October 3, 2026.
This is a Kentucky Derby 2027 points race.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Breeders' Futurity 2026 Analysis (10-3-26)
The Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland is set for Saturday, October 3, as the ninth race on the card. The $650,000 event is for 2-year-olds and will be contested at 1 1/16 miles on the main track, with a scheduled post time of 5:16 p.m. Eastern.
The Breeders’ Futurity is also an early stop on the Road to the 2027 Kentucky Derby, awarding qualifying points toward next year’s Derby.
Breeders’ Futurity Field
1. Coach Pope (4/5)
Coach Pope is the clear morning-line favorite for trainer Kenny McPeek, with Jose Ortiz returning to ride.
The son of Tapit cost $350,000 and has won one of his two career starts. He finished second in his debut, rallying from off the pace in a race that has turned out to be productive. U. S. S. Valor, who finished just a neck behind him in that race, returned to graduate by 13 lengths.
Coach Pope came back as a heavy favorite in his second start and dominated, winning by 12 lengths at Churchill Downs.
His Today’s Racing Digest numbers are strong, with final-time ratings of 135 in his debut and 140 in his second start. His pace ratings improved as well, from 131 to 150.
The inside post should allow Coach Pope to save ground while using his tactical speed to stay close to the pace.
2. Q B Rocket (2-1)
Q B Rocket is a major contender in his second career start for trainer Brad Cox. The son of Gun Runner sold for $1.9 million and will have Junior Alvarado aboard.
He was the favorite in his six-furlong debut at Saratoga on August 15 and delivered a professional performance. Q B Rocket went straight to the lead, opened up in the stretch and won by 1 3/4 lengths while being eased up late.
The runner-up from that race has since won, adding to the strength of the form.
Q B Rocket earned a 132 final-time rating and a 134 pace rating in his debut. The expectation is that he can improve with experience, and his pedigree suggests that stretching out to 1 1/16 miles should be within his capabilities.
Keeneland can favor horses with speed, and Q B Rocket figures to be one of the fastest horses away from the gate.
3. Phone Booth (12-1)
Phone Booth ships in from California for trainer Doug O’Neill, with Umberto Rispoli scheduled to ride.
The son of Pavel has three career starts, with one win and two runner-up finishes. He won his debut at five furlongs before finishing second to Hughes in both the Grade 3 Best Pal and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.
Hughes will return at Santa Anita on Saturday as the favorite in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes.
Phone Booth’s speed figures have been inconsistent. He earned a 134 final-time rating in his debut, dropped to 111 in his second start and rebounded to 125 last time.
He has progressively stretched out from five furlongs to six and then seven furlongs. Now he’ll have to negotiate two turns at 1 1/16 miles.
While he has shown ability, the inconsistent numbers and questions about the added distance make him difficult to put on top.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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