KENTUCKY DERBY 2017 UPDATE: Guest Suite Wins Lecomte

Guest Suite picked up ten Kentucky Derby 2017 points in an off the pace tally on a muddy (sealed) main track in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds on Jan 21.

The speed figure for the Lecomte was below par and it looks as though it was a weak race. Winner Guest Suite is slowly improving for Neil Howard and should continue to progress.

If you are keeping score at home, all four Derby points races this year (Jerome, Sham, Smarty Jones, Lecomte) were contested on a wet track. The top performers in the first three listed races were on or near the lead throughout and each race produced a lopsided win and/or strung-out fields. Guest Suite rallied from 6th and earned a subpar 82 BSF in the Lecomte. The jury is still out on Uncontested (Smarty Jones), El Areeb (Jerome),  and 1-2 Sham finishers Gormley and American Anthem.

There was not a Derby points race this week. Next week (Feb 4), the Withers from Aqueduct, the Holy Bull from Gulfstream, and the Robert Lewis from Santa Anita are each worth a total of 17 Derby points to the Top 4 finishers (10-4-2-1).  

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-29-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - McCraken

#6 - El Areeb

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Theory

#9 - Royal Mo 

#10 - Battalion Runner

#11 - Faja


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Santa Anita Park Winter Meet Rewind (Jan 20-21)

Rain, rain, go away. A canceled card last Thursday was followed up by another cancellation on Sunday, Jan 22. Just two live racing days and not turf racing this week. Better weather is just around the corner!

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Jan 20

Wet fast (sealed) main track and off the turf. Four wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8f, 8f, 6f, 8f).

Kent Desormeaux booted home a pair. Flavien Prat and Jerry Hollendorfer teamed up for two wins.

The opening race was taken off the turf and 2-3 finishers My Uncle Al and Evicted are worth following. The former was a clear 2nd despite his low Tomlinson mud rating and the latter finished 2nd in a pair of previous turf routes and will enjoy getting back on preferred footing.

Saturday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Jan 21

Wet fast (sealed) main track and no turf races scheduled. Four wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8f, 6f, 7f, 6f).

Flavien Prat and Peter Eurton teamed up for two wins.

Town Champ (7th race) was the beaten favorite in his bow for Bejarano/D’Amato. After a less than ideal start, he attended the pace outside and between horses before missing 3rd by a nose. He might go better on a fast track next time.

RECENT 2017 FULL CARD HIGHLIGHTS

JAN 28 – 5 Winning Tops + SA Early P4, SA P5 - Total payouts: $477.50
JAN 27 – 2 Winning Tops + Early P4 from SA - PAYOUTS: $465.45
JAN 26 – 5 Winning Tops (2 at SA, 3 at GG) - payouts: $229.30
JAN 21 – 3 Winning Tops + SA P4, SA P5, + GG P4 - payouts $345.65
JAN 20 – 5 Winning Tops + SA P4, SA P5, + GG P4 - payouts - $457.75
JAN 16 – 2 Winning Tops + SA Late Pick 4 - total payouts: $1,472.15
JAN 15 – 6 Winning Tops (3 each from SA + GG) - payouts: $195.10
JAN 14 – 5 Winning Tops + SA Early P4 - total payouts: $268.90
JAN 13 – 4 Winning Tops + SA P4 + LRL P4 - payouts: $283.15
JAN 8 –  3 Winning Tops + SA Late P4 - total payouts: $631.70
JAN 7 –  3 Winning Tops + SA Early p4 - total payouts: $323.25

Go to The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily full cards from SANTA ANITA PARK!

Kentucky Derby 2017 prep race handicapping video of the week: Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes

The lone Kentucky Derby 2017 points race this weekend is the G3 Lecomte from Fair Grounds and the 12-horse field is a real scramble.

Untrapped is the 9-2 morning line favorite for Steve Asmussen and the Lecomte will be his first start around two turns after a stalk/pounce maiden sprint win at Churchill on Nov 20.

Asmussen saddles two other runners including Springboard Mile runner-up Totality. He did not get much pace help last time and will try to get involved late.

Guest Suite looks like a solid contender for Neil Howard. His speed figures are on the rise and he romped when last seen at Churchill Downs Nov 26.

Running Mate rolled home in his first two sprints before losing the Sugar Bowl as the heavy favorite. He stretches out for Larry Jones and is probably the target.

Maiden Arklow is improving for sharp trainer Brad Cox and he might upset the applecart. Takeoff beat Arklow last time and should be forwardly placed for Mark Casse.

Shaeholder Value exits a dirt route win at Fair Grounds vs. optional claiming foes for Tom Amoss, who saddled 2016 Lecomte winner Mo Tom.

Saint’s Fan drew post 12 and trainer Dallas Stewart is expected to withdraw his charge because of the outside post.

Phat Man, Marco Mischief, Tip Tap Tapizar, and Pat On the Back round out the Lecomte field.

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Smarty Jones Stakes Recap + Lecomte Stakes Preview

Kentucky Derby 2017 contender Uncontested went straight to the front in the slop at Oaklawn and kept on going in an easy Smarty Jones Stakes wire job as the favorite on Jan 16.

My top choice Petrov chased Uncontested from the opening bell and was clearly second best over late runner Rowdy the Warrior. The winning BSF was 96.

Just like the Jerome and Sham, the Smarty Jones was contested on a wet track. The top performers in all three races were on or near the lead throughout and each race produced a lopsided win and/or strung-out fields. Let’s see what Uncontested, El Areeb, Gormley, and American Anthem can do in upcoming fast track graded routes vs. tougher competition. With that in mind, Uncontested moves up to #14 on my “Next Nine” but will not enter the “Exceptional Eleven” just yet.

The lone Derby points race this weekend is the G3 Lecomte from Fair Grounds and the 12-horse field is a real scramble.

Untrapped is the 9-2 morning line favorite for Steve Asmussen and the Lecomte will be his first start around two turns after a stalk/pounce maiden sprint win at Churchill on Nov 20.

Asmussen saddles two other runners including Springboard Mile runner-up Totality. He did not get much pace help last time and will try to get involved late.

Guest Suite looks like a solid contender for Neil Howard. His speed figures are on the rise and he romped when last seen at Churchill Downs Nov 26.

Running Mate rolled home in his first two sprints before losing the Sugar Bowl as the heavy favorite. He stretches out for Larry Jones and is probably the target.

Maiden Arklow is improving for sharp trainer Brad Cox and he might upset the applecart. Takeoff beat Arklow last time and should be forwardly placed for Mark Casse.

Shaeholder Value exits a dirt route win at Fair Grounds vs. optional claiming foes for Tom Amoss, who saddled 2016 Lecomte winner Mo Tom.

Saint’s Fan drew post 12 and trainer Dallas Stewart is expected to withdraw his charge because of the outside post.

Phat Man, Marco Mischief, Tip Tap Tapizar, and Pat On the Back round out the Lecomte field.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-20-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - McCraken

#6 - El Areeb

#7 - Practical Joke

#8 - Theory

#9 - Royal Mo 

#10 - Klimt

#11 - Beach Bum


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Santa Anita Park 2017 Winter Meet Rewind (Jan 13-16)

The 5-day holiday race week was reduced to four after live racing was canceled on Jan 12 due to slippery conditions. Turf racing did not resume until Jan 16.

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Jan 13

A day after live racing was scrapped due to wet weather, Friday’s main track was muddy (sealed) and there was no turf racing. Early-pressing types very strong with six horses going virtually wire-to-wire (6f, 8f, 7f, 8.5f, 6.5f, 5.5f).

Hat trick for Stewart Elliott.

Tapped was impressive in the allowance optional claiming feature (off the turf - 6.5f). The Hollendorfer trainee dueled outside and cruised across the line under Smith’s snug hold (1st by 5.25 lengths).

Saturday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Jan 14

Good main track and off the turf. Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (9f, 8,5f, 6f). 

Tyler Baze booted home a pair and almost had a hat trick but Winning Causeway was disqualified. Bob Baffert saddled two winners including Vale Dori in the G2 La Canada.  

You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...

Handicapping Video of the Week: 2017 Smarty Jones Stakes with Uncontested

The 2017 Smarty Jones Stakes goes as the eight race at Oaklawn Park on Monday, Jan 16 with post time scheduled for 5:38 ET. 

Uncontested is the 2-1 morning line favorite and he might get brave if able to shake loose early. 

Warrior's Club was a head in front of Uncontested in the Kentucky Jockey Club and jockey Robby Albarado will try to keep the favorite in his sights from the opening bell. 

Petrov should be shadowing the top two while saving ground from the inside post under Jose Ortiz.

If the pace gets hot and heavy, look for Rowdy the Warrior to arrive on the scene late. 

2017 FULL CARD SCHEDULE: Daily Santa Anita Full Cards (Jan 16-July 4)

My SANTA ANITA full cards are offered daily from Jan 16 thru July 4 at WinningHorsePicks.com. My SA analysis also includes GOLDEN GATE and/or LAUREL PARK Best Bets plus occasional stakes races from around the country. The SA full cards feature the always popular Pick 5, Early Pick 4, Pick 6, and Late Pick 4 spread tickets.

My Monday Santa Anita Park full card (1-16-17) is ready to purchase at WinningHorsePicks.com

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: Gormley Strikes Back

Gormley took care of business in the slop and picked up 10 Kentucky Derby 2017 points in a narrow head victory over American Anthem in the Grade III Sham Stakes at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, Jan. 7.

Gormley won the G1 FrontRunner on a fast track in his second career start before a less than ideal start and wide trip derailed him in the G1 BC Juvenile. In the Sham, he shadowed American Anthem from the get-go and prevailed in a hard fought battle from start to finish.

American Anthem gave Gormley everything he could handle but two turn graded stakes experience ruled the day. The Baffert trainee has plenty of upside and it was thirteen lengths back to show finisher Big Hit.  

Just like the Jerome a week prior, the Sham was contested on a wet track. The top performers in both races are obviously talented but wet tracks frequently produce lopsided victories with strung-out fields. Let’s see what El Areeb, Gormley, and American Anthem can do in upcoming fast track graded routes vs. tougher competition. With that in mind, American Anthem moves up to #13 on my “Next Nine” but will not enter the “Exceptional Eleven” just yet.  

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-15-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - McCraken

#6 - El Areeb

#7 - Beach Bum

#8 - Royal Mo 

#9 - Klimt

#10 - Theory

#11 - Practical Joke


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Santa Anita Park 2017 Winter Meet Rewind (Jan 6-8)

Wet weather continues to wreak havoc in Arcadia, CA. No turf racing on Jan 6-7 with moisture in the main track all week long. 

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Jan 6

Muddy (sealed) main track and off the turf. One dueling front runner scored at seven panels but that was it for speed types.

No riding or training doubles on Friday.

Saturday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Jan 7

Sloppy (sealed) main track and off the turf. Three dueling front runners scored on dirt (6f, 5.5f, 9f).

Two wins for jockey Victor Espinoza including Gormley in the G3 Sham.

You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...

Kentucky Derby 2017 Update: El Areeb Enters Picture

El Areeb is the latest Kentucky Derby 2017 flavor of the month following a facile victory in the Grade 3 Jerome at Aqueduct on Jan 2.

Blowout wins on wet tracks are typically not duplicated under a different set of circumstances next time out so right now I would say that I am cautiously optimistic regarding El Areeb. He is obviously talented but must prove himself on dry land against bigger and better foes. Time will tell if he is a legit Derby contender.

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2017 Contenders (Updated 1-7-17)

#1 - MASTERY

#2 - Classic Empire

#3 - Three Rules

#4 - Gormley

#5 - Beach Bum

#6 - Royal Mo

#7 - McCracken

#8 - Klimt

#9 - El Areeb

#10 - Theory

#11 - Practical Joke


You can read my entire Kentucky Derby 2017 contenders update blog at The Runaway Horse.

* Churchill Downs photo by Stacy Edwards

Santa Anita Park Winter Meet Rewind (Dec 26-Jan 2)

The Santa Anita Park winter meet started off in typical fast and firm fashion but the weather went downhill quickly after opening day.

Monday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Dec 26

Fast main track and firm turf course. Dueling front runners captured the first two dirt sprints of the meet (6.5f, 6f). The winning turf course running styles were a closer at 9f, an outside stalker down the hill, and a front runner at one mile.

Flavien Prat and Joel Rosario both booted home a pair.

Thursday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Dec 29

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two of the three flat mile dirt races produced a wire job and a dueling front running winner. The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at one mile, a downhill closer, and another stalker at one mile (rail at 10 feet).

Flavien Prat booted home a pair.

Friday SANTA ANITA PARK Recap: Dec 30

Wet fast main track and the lone downhill race was moved to the dirt oval. Turf course good. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8f, 6.5f). The lone turf race was captured by stalker Vending Machine in the one mile Eddie Logan Stakes  (rail at 20 feet).

Hat trick for Norberto Arroyo Jr. Peter Miller saddled both stakes winners (Bad Ju Ju, Vending Machine) and Arroyo rode both.

You can read the rest of my Santa Anita Park Report at The Runaway Horse...