Check out my Jerome Stakes 2019 video analysis for Today's Racing Digest.
Monday, December 31, 2018
Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Friday, December 14, 2018
Gulfstream Park Stakes Race Video Preview for Dec. 15
Check out my graded rundown of the five stakes races from Gulfstream Park for Dec. 15.
Saturday, December 8, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: G1 Los Alamitos Futurity Preview
Trainer Bob Baffert has dominated the CashCall Futurity since the late 90’s at Hollywood Park and more recently Los Alamitos Race Course, and he has two strong contenders for the 2018 renewal.
Improbable is his first entrant and the the unbeaten colt is the morning line favorite. Mucho Gusto is his other runner and he captured his first two starts to begin his career. The former has shown the ability to relax and finish, and the latter likes to get in the mix from the opening bell.
CashCall Futurity 2018 Preview
LRC 5 (G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 2yo, 8.5f) #1 Improbable (6-5) looked great romping on the BC undercard Nov 2 (130 CPR + 143 Final Rating). He is 2-for-2 for Baffert and projects a ground saving tactical trip behind the speed under Van Dyke. #2 Savagery (8-1) removes blinkers (strong move for Miller) and stretches out in distance. He ran well throughout in his last two sprint stakes starts without much pace. He should be forwardly placed and earned career best numbers in the Bob Hope (125 CPR + 128 Final Rating). #3 Dueling (6-1) improved over a route of ground in his SA maiden win at one mile Sept. 28 (2 next out winners - 123 Final Rating). He added blinkers and failed to get involved in the BC Juvenile, and he returns to SoCal and reconnects with his winning rider Mike Smith (6-for-14 w/Hollendorfer). #4 King of Speed (15-1) switches surfaces and has no early speed. He can get the distance but is 0-for-2 on dirt and seems up against it from a pace standpoint. #5 EXTRA HOPE (7-2) added blinkers and broke through with a big two turn maiden win at SA Oct 21 (129 CPR + 129 Final Rating). He ran out of ground vs. a couple of these in the G3 Bob Hope at 7f and is back in a preferred route. Prat knows him now and his tactical speed and stamina could pull him through in this spot. He is the only entrant with a win at 8.5f. #6 Mucho Gusto (3-1) went all the way in both sprint starts for Baffert including the G3 Bob Hope (129 CPR + 132 FR). He is an obvious prominent throughout threat under Talamo. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta Box 3-5
Click here to read the rest of this blog at The Runaway Horse...
Improbable is his first entrant and the the unbeaten colt is the morning line favorite. Mucho Gusto is his other runner and he captured his first two starts to begin his career. The former has shown the ability to relax and finish, and the latter likes to get in the mix from the opening bell.
CashCall Futurity 2018 Preview
LRC 5 (G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 2yo, 8.5f) #1 Improbable (6-5) looked great romping on the BC undercard Nov 2 (130 CPR + 143 Final Rating). He is 2-for-2 for Baffert and projects a ground saving tactical trip behind the speed under Van Dyke. #2 Savagery (8-1) removes blinkers (strong move for Miller) and stretches out in distance. He ran well throughout in his last two sprint stakes starts without much pace. He should be forwardly placed and earned career best numbers in the Bob Hope (125 CPR + 128 Final Rating). #3 Dueling (6-1) improved over a route of ground in his SA maiden win at one mile Sept. 28 (2 next out winners - 123 Final Rating). He added blinkers and failed to get involved in the BC Juvenile, and he returns to SoCal and reconnects with his winning rider Mike Smith (6-for-14 w/Hollendorfer). #4 King of Speed (15-1) switches surfaces and has no early speed. He can get the distance but is 0-for-2 on dirt and seems up against it from a pace standpoint. #5 EXTRA HOPE (7-2) added blinkers and broke through with a big two turn maiden win at SA Oct 21 (129 CPR + 129 Final Rating). He ran out of ground vs. a couple of these in the G3 Bob Hope at 7f and is back in a preferred route. Prat knows him now and his tactical speed and stamina could pull him through in this spot. He is the only entrant with a win at 8.5f. #6 Mucho Gusto (3-1) went all the way in both sprint starts for Baffert including the G3 Bob Hope (129 CPR + 132 FR). He is an obvious prominent throughout threat under Talamo. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta Box 3-5
Click here to read the rest of this blog at The Runaway Horse...
Kentucky Oaks 2019 Blog: G1 Starlet Preview
The next Kentucky Oaks 2019 points race is the Grade I Starlet at Los Alamitos Race Course on Saturday, Dec. 8, and Bob Baffert saddles the two favorites.
American Pharoah’s sister Chasing Yesterday is the race favorite for Baffert, and she has been very good in sprint races. Mother Mother is also conditioned by Baffert and she looms a pace factor at the very least.
Grade I Starlet Analysis (12-8-18)
LRC 7 (G1 Starlet, 2yo fil, 8.5f) #1 VIBRANCE (5-2) started her career in a turf route and she ended up 4th. She was 1 of 3 next out winners from that heat in a flat mile dirt race Aug 29, and she followed that up with a clear 2nd to runaway winner Bellafina in the G1 Chandelier. She finished a clear 3rd behind sharp front running winner Jaywalk in the BC Juvenile Fillies last time and Prat rides the early-pressing threat today. She improved her FIRE, CPR, + Final Ratings in all four starts (129 Final in Breeders’ Cup). #2 Mother Mother (2-1) was up on the pace in all three starts (2 wins and a 2nd) and she added blinkers and held on in the Rags to Riches at CD Oct 28 (one turn mile - 132 Final Rating). The runner-up from her last, Molto Bella, went off a 3-1 in the G2 Demoiselle Dec 1 and finished 4th (beaten 18 lengths). Show finisher High Regard returned to land the show in the G2 Golden Rod. #3 Sold It (20-1) has a tough task for Doug O’Neill. She set a pressured pace and held 3rd in her dirt sprint bow at 6.5f, and she dueled and held on by a neck in a turf sprint Nov 15. She was the favorite in her first two starts and is a longshot pace factor today. #4 Oxy Lady (5-1) added blinkers and romped in the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov 2 (136 CPR + 135 Final), but that is looking like a negative race (inflated number). Clear runner-up Enliven was pummeled by 23 lengths as the chalk in the Demoiselle Dec 1. Show finisher Surge of Pride was beaten by 10+ vs. NY-bred stakes foes Nov 23. 4th place finisher Takecharge Mirella was a well-beaten 3rd of 4 in an OC-75k/1x at AQU Nov 29. #5 Enaya Alrabb (12-1) added blinkers and improved to graduate in a one mile dirt race second time out at SA Oct 25. She owns the lowest numbers. #6 Chasing Yesterday (9-5) is 3-for-3 in SoCal dirt sprints and her only below par effort was a 7th of 11 in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga second time out. She beat 2 rivals in the Desi Arnaz at 7f Nov 12 and the numbers from that race were disappointing. She can win if she earns Anoakia-like numbers (Oct 14 6f SA - 136 CPR + 137 Final). THE PLAYS - #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-4
Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race Recaps
Golden Rod Recap (11-24-18) - Winner: Liora
Restless Rider was the overwhelming favorite in this wet track route under the Twin Spires, and she sat a comfortable stalking trip in third behind front runner Liora. Those two hooked up in the stretch and when the tussle ended, it was 27-1 longshot Liora by a nose. Restless Rider was a clear 2nd and was followed by High Regard, Champagne Anyone, Gold Credit, Princess Causeway, Break Curfew, and Reflect. The wet track may have affected some of the performances, and I am just not sure what to make of the results. I have been a fan of Restless Rider for quite some time and have been disappointed with her overall progress this fall. She deserves a break.
Demoiselle Recap (12-1-18) - Winner: Positive Spirit
The fast main track was deep and the rail was not the place to be early in the day, and this event was carded early (race 4). To give you an idea of the bad inside, Joe Bravo steered Enliven at least three paths away from the inside even though she broke from the rail post. Positive Spirit was up on the pace and wide throughout, and she rode the good portion of the track to a 10+ length score under Manny Franco. Afleet Destiny rallied wide to secure the place over outside front runner Filly Joel. It was more than five lengths back to Molto Bella in 4th, and she was followed by Enliven, Jennifer’s Dream, and Girl of Tosconova. The final time was 1:56.01, and note that the track played considerably faster and the inside lanes were not nearly as bad later in the day. For final time comparisons, 2-year-old males in the Remsen (race 8) completed the same distance in 1:51.34. Positive Spirit is bred to be a good one but it is tough to get a true early gauge on the 2018 Demoiselle.
Kentucky Oaks Points Leaderboard (through Demoiselle Stakes)
1. Jaywalk - 30 points
2. Restless Rider - 22 points
3. Bellafina - 12 points
4. Serengeti Empress - 10 points
5. Positive Spirit - 10 points
6. Liora - 10 points
7. Vibrance - 8 points
Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2019 Contenders (12-7-18)
#1 - JAYWALK - Two-time grade one winner continues to improve for John Servis (saddled 2016 Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia).
#2 - VIBRANCE - All four starts were routes and she hit the board in both grade one attempts. She goes next in the Dec. 8 Starlet.
#3 - RESTLESS RIDER - Consistent filly fired exacta shots in all six outings. She likes Churchill and is a grade one winner.
#4 - OXY LADY - Improving filly owns a route pedigree (Oxbow-A. P. Indy) and looked good winning the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov. 2.
#5 - POSITIVE SPIRIT - Always Dreaming’s 1/2 sister has plenty of upside and will spend the winter in Florida.
American Pharoah’s sister Chasing Yesterday is the race favorite for Baffert, and she has been very good in sprint races. Mother Mother is also conditioned by Baffert and she looms a pace factor at the very least.
Grade I Starlet Analysis (12-8-18)
LRC 7 (G1 Starlet, 2yo fil, 8.5f) #1 VIBRANCE (5-2) started her career in a turf route and she ended up 4th. She was 1 of 3 next out winners from that heat in a flat mile dirt race Aug 29, and she followed that up with a clear 2nd to runaway winner Bellafina in the G1 Chandelier. She finished a clear 3rd behind sharp front running winner Jaywalk in the BC Juvenile Fillies last time and Prat rides the early-pressing threat today. She improved her FIRE, CPR, + Final Ratings in all four starts (129 Final in Breeders’ Cup). #2 Mother Mother (2-1) was up on the pace in all three starts (2 wins and a 2nd) and she added blinkers and held on in the Rags to Riches at CD Oct 28 (one turn mile - 132 Final Rating). The runner-up from her last, Molto Bella, went off a 3-1 in the G2 Demoiselle Dec 1 and finished 4th (beaten 18 lengths). Show finisher High Regard returned to land the show in the G2 Golden Rod. #3 Sold It (20-1) has a tough task for Doug O’Neill. She set a pressured pace and held 3rd in her dirt sprint bow at 6.5f, and she dueled and held on by a neck in a turf sprint Nov 15. She was the favorite in her first two starts and is a longshot pace factor today. #4 Oxy Lady (5-1) added blinkers and romped in the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov 2 (136 CPR + 135 Final), but that is looking like a negative race (inflated number). Clear runner-up Enliven was pummeled by 23 lengths as the chalk in the Demoiselle Dec 1. Show finisher Surge of Pride was beaten by 10+ vs. NY-bred stakes foes Nov 23. 4th place finisher Takecharge Mirella was a well-beaten 3rd of 4 in an OC-75k/1x at AQU Nov 29. #5 Enaya Alrabb (12-1) added blinkers and improved to graduate in a one mile dirt race second time out at SA Oct 25. She owns the lowest numbers. #6 Chasing Yesterday (9-5) is 3-for-3 in SoCal dirt sprints and her only below par effort was a 7th of 11 in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga second time out. She beat 2 rivals in the Desi Arnaz at 7f Nov 12 and the numbers from that race were disappointing. She can win if she earns Anoakia-like numbers (Oct 14 6f SA - 136 CPR + 137 Final). THE PLAYS - #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-4
Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race Recaps
Golden Rod Recap (11-24-18) - Winner: Liora
Restless Rider was the overwhelming favorite in this wet track route under the Twin Spires, and she sat a comfortable stalking trip in third behind front runner Liora. Those two hooked up in the stretch and when the tussle ended, it was 27-1 longshot Liora by a nose. Restless Rider was a clear 2nd and was followed by High Regard, Champagne Anyone, Gold Credit, Princess Causeway, Break Curfew, and Reflect. The wet track may have affected some of the performances, and I am just not sure what to make of the results. I have been a fan of Restless Rider for quite some time and have been disappointed with her overall progress this fall. She deserves a break.
Demoiselle Recap (12-1-18) - Winner: Positive Spirit
The fast main track was deep and the rail was not the place to be early in the day, and this event was carded early (race 4). To give you an idea of the bad inside, Joe Bravo steered Enliven at least three paths away from the inside even though she broke from the rail post. Positive Spirit was up on the pace and wide throughout, and she rode the good portion of the track to a 10+ length score under Manny Franco. Afleet Destiny rallied wide to secure the place over outside front runner Filly Joel. It was more than five lengths back to Molto Bella in 4th, and she was followed by Enliven, Jennifer’s Dream, and Girl of Tosconova. The final time was 1:56.01, and note that the track played considerably faster and the inside lanes were not nearly as bad later in the day. For final time comparisons, 2-year-old males in the Remsen (race 8) completed the same distance in 1:51.34. Positive Spirit is bred to be a good one but it is tough to get a true early gauge on the 2018 Demoiselle.
Kentucky Oaks Points Leaderboard (through Demoiselle Stakes)
1. Jaywalk - 30 points
2. Restless Rider - 22 points
3. Bellafina - 12 points
4. Serengeti Empress - 10 points
5. Positive Spirit - 10 points
6. Liora - 10 points
7. Vibrance - 8 points
Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2019 Contenders (12-7-18)
#1 - JAYWALK - Two-time grade one winner continues to improve for John Servis (saddled 2016 Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia).
#2 - VIBRANCE - All four starts were routes and she hit the board in both grade one attempts. She goes next in the Dec. 8 Starlet.
#3 - RESTLESS RIDER - Consistent filly fired exacta shots in all six outings. She likes Churchill and is a grade one winner.
#4 - OXY LADY - Improving filly owns a route pedigree (Oxbow-A. P. Indy) and looked good winning the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov. 2.
#5 - POSITIVE SPIRIT - Always Dreaming’s 1/2 sister has plenty of upside and will spend the winter in Florida.
Friday, December 7, 2018
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