Santa Anita Park 2020 Video Picks: G1 Malibu, G2 San Antonio, Eddie Logan Stakes

 Here is my latest handicapping video featuring win picks for three stakes races at Santa Anita Park including the G1 Malibu. 

Check out free stakes picks, Kentucky Derby 2021 blogs and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Kentucky Derby 2021 Point Race Video Series: Springboard Mile + Los Al Futurity

 Here is my latest handicapping video featuring analysis of Gulfstream Park stakes races (12-12-20). 

Check out free stakes picks, Kentucky Derby 2021 blogs and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Gulfstream Park Stakes Video for Saturday (12-12-20)

 Here is my latest handicapping video featuring analysis of Gulfstream Park stakes races (12-12-20). 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Cigar Mile Day Video from Aqueduct (12-5-20)

 Here is my latest handicapping video featuring analysis of Cigar Mile Day stakes from Aqueduct. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Horse Racing Handicapping Videos: G1 Matriarch Stakes 2020 Picks

Here is my latest handicapping video featuring analysis of the G1 Matriarch from Del Mar. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Horse Racing Video Series: How To Make Money Betting To Win, Place, and Show

 Here is my latest handicapping series video featuring win, place, and show betting.  

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Breeders' Cup 2020 Recap: How To Make Money On Big Horse Racing Days

 Here is my #BreedersCup 2020 recap video. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Breeders' Cup Classic 2020 Video Picks

 Here is my #BreedersCup Classic 2020 video. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Breeders' Cup 2020 Saturday Video Picks

 Here is my early #BreedersCup Saturday 2020 video preview. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2020 Video Picks Featuring Essential Quality

 Here is my #BreedersCup Juvenile 2020 video preview. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Breeders' Cup Friday 2020 Video Preview

 Here is my early #BreedersCup Friday 2020 video preview. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Breeders' Cup Classic 2020 Video Preview

 Here is my early #BreedersCup Classic 2020 video preview. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Breeders' Cup Distaff 2020 Video Preview

 Here is my #BreedersCup Distaff 2020 video. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Preakness 2020 Video Recap

 Here is my Preakness 2020 recap video. 

Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Kentucky Oaks 2020 Report: Tonalist's Shape Defeats Spice Is Nice in Davona Dale

Tonalist’s Shape ran her record to 5-for-5 in a game front running win over highly regarded filly Spice Is Nice in the Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Feb. 29. She now has 60 Kentucky Oaks 2020 points and is all but guaranteed a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Friday in May.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Tonalist's Shape capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

The next three Oaks points races take place this weekend, with each awarding 50 points to the winner.

Busher Invitational (3-7-20)

Lake Avenue & Maedean finished 1-2 in the Demoiselle (G2) late last year, and they meet again in this one mile spot. The former is the even money favorite with speed, and the latter packs a decent stretch kick.

Honeybee Stakes (3-7-20)

This race has upset potential. There is not much pace on paper and Ring Leader is probably the one to catch. Alta’s Award is improving and figures to stalk and pounce, and Motu and Turtle Trax will try to get involved late.

You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse...

Tampa Bay Derby & Honeybee Stakes 2020 Video Picks

Check out my Tampa Bay Derby & Honeybee video analysis.

 
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Gotham Stakes + Busher 2020 Video Picks

Check out my Gotham Stakes & Busher Invitational 2020 video from the Big A.

San Felipe Stakes & Santa Ysabel Stakes 2020 Video Picks

Check out my San Felipe Stakes & Santa Ysabel Stakes 2020 video from Santa Anita Park.

Santa Anita Park Handicapping Report (Feb. 28-March 1)

Santa Anita Recap for Friday (2-28-20)

Fast main track and firm turf course. Four front running winners on a speed favoring dirt oval (8.5f, 5.5f, 8.5f, 6.5f). The turf course winners were a stalker at 5.5 furlongs, a patient midpack runner at a mile and an eighth, and a last-to-first closer at 5.5 furlongs (rail at 30 feet).   

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Hariboux capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest. 

Riding doubles for Flavien Prat and Umberto Rispoli.       

The Rainbow 6 pool was $71,548, and multiple winning tickets paid $420.02 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $79,098 when live racing resumes Saturday, Feb. 29.   

Feb. 28 Claims: Race 2 - Classy Atlantic ($35k, Peter Miller), Point Hope ($35k, Blaine Wright). Race 7 - Truth Seeker ($50k, Steve Miyadi).      

SA Full Card Highlights for 2-28-20
SA 2 Classy Atlantic/Dearborn Exacta ($13.70)
SA 4 WILL DANCER ($5.60), Exacta ($6.30)
Double (races 3-4, $20.00)
Pick 3 (races 2-4, $15.50)
SA 5 Border Town/Commanding Chief/ On Easy Street Trifecta ($6.50)
Double (races 4-5, $13.20)
Pick 3 (races 3-5, $10.85)
SA Early Pick 4 (races 2-5, $42.80)
AQU 7 THE GREAT JOHANNA (AQU Best Bet, $8.90), Exacta ($61.00), Trifecta ($66.74)

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Fountain of Youth Stakes 2020 Video Featuring Dennis' Moment

Check out my Davona Dale Stakes & Fountain of Youth Stakes 2020 video from Gulfstream Park.

 

Santa Anita Park Report (Feb. 21-23)

Santa Anita Recap for Friday (2-21-20)

Fast main track and firm turf course. No front running winners on dirt. The turf course winners were a last-to-first closet at 5.5 furlongs, a dueling front runner at one mile, and a stalker at one mile (rail at 20 feet).

Riding doubles for Assael Espinoza (dirt sprints), Umberto Rispoli (dirt routes), and Joel Rosario (turf). Training doubles for Mark Glatt and John Sadler (turf routes).        

The Rainbow 6 pool was $114,710, and one winning ticket took down the entire jackpot - $454,497.90. 

Feb. 21 Claims: Race 4 - Love a Honeybadger ($16k, Peter Miller).      

SA Full Card Highlights for 2-21-20
SA 4 Tiz Toffee/Christy Jackson Exacta ($30.00)

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Santa Anita Recap for Saturday (2-22-20)

Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at one mile on dirt. The turf course winners were a stalker at a mile and an eighth, two stalkers at one mile, and a stalker at 5.5 furlongs.   

A pair of turf wins for Abel Cedillo.       

The Rainbow 6 pool was $142,748, and multiple winning tickets paid $38,124.76 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $32,678 when live racing resumes Sunday, Feb. 23. 

You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse...

Kentucky Derby 2020 Report for 2-23-20 Featuring Mr. Monomoy

We had our busiest week yet on the road to Kentucky Derby 2020. There were two divisions of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), and the winners both received 50 points (Mr. Monomoy, Modernist). El Camino Real hero Azul Coast picked up 10 Derby points and an automatic berth into the Preakness, and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) hero Silver Prospector bounced back in the Southwest Stakes (G3). If those races were not enough for you, Bob Baffert unveiled exciting prospect Charlatan at Santa Anita Park.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Azul Coast capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest. 

There were no points races on the docket this week, but the lull in the schedule will not last. Things really start heating up with the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park Feb. 29, followed by a busy month of March!   

Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps

Risen Star Stakes (G2) Division I Recap (2-15-20) - Winner: Mr. Monomoy ($17.00)

Mr. Monomoy was the only LeComte (G3) pace player around at the finish of that race. Fast forward to the Risen Star, and jockey Florent Geroux did not waste any time. He went straight to the front and set a controlled pace, and that was the key to success. Blackberry Wine made a run at him in the middle, but he was swatted away, and Mr. Monomoy kept on finding in a sharp victory by 2-1/2 lengths. Enforceable rallied from last to edge Silver State for the place by a 1/2 length. My value top choice Farmington Road raced wide throughout from post 10 and seemed to be finding his best stride late. Digital saved ground stalking the pace from the inside post and worked his way up to 2nd in the stretch, but found the distance out of his reach and ended up 5th. Scabbard ended up 6th from post 11. I think we can confidently give up on him at this point. He has failed to replicate his strong Iroquois (G3) runner-up finish in three subsequent stakes starts. Blackberry Wine faded to 7th, and behind him were Moon Over Miami, Ready to Roll, Perfect Revenge, and an extremely tired Shashashakemeup. This was by far the stronger division of the Risen Star, and I will take the top four finishers over any exiting the Modernist race. That being said, the Fair Grounds road to the Derby is usually a bust. 

Risen Star Stakes (G2) Division II Recap (2-15-20) - Winner: Modernist ($27.60)

What happened to Anneau d’Or? This was the weaker division of the Risen Star, and he was a standout on paper, but that is why they run the races. Ny Traffic and Modernist battled on the lead, and the latter shook clear in the stretch and won by a length and a half for Bill Mott. Major Fed stalked outside and got past Ny Traffic to secure 2nd by a neck. Mailman Money was within striking range and made a middle move before flattening out to finish 4th. Mr. Big News was up for 5th over Lynn’s Map and Finnick the Fierce, and they were followed by Excession, a highly disappointing Anneau d’Or, a very tired Liam’s Lucky Charm, and 106-1 outsider Fame To Famous. As expected, this was the slower division, and that makes it all the more strange that Anneau d’Or failed to fire. This was a blown opportunity to get into the Derby. Instead, Modernist picked up 50 points, and that should be more than enough to get into the gate on the first Saturday in May. I like his early-pressing speed, and he has already won twice at a mile and an eighth. One the negative side, he is slower than all of the top contenders in this division. There is still time to run faster, and he will need to next time. The first division was run in 1:50.43, and the second division was completed in 1:51.28 (similar pace scenarios).  

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Mine That Bird Derby 2020 Video Featuring Sir Rick

Check out my Sunland Park video featuring the Island Fashion Stakes & Mine That Bird Derby.

 

Kentucky Oaks 2020 Report for 2-21-20 Featuring Finite

Juvenile filly champion British Idiom made her much anticipated 3-year-old bow in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds Feb. 15, but Finite stole the show and is the new Kentucky Oaks 2020 favorite and points leader.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Finite capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest. 

The next Oaks points race is the Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park Feb. 29. Possible starters include Forward Gal (G3) winner Tonalist’s Shape, last year’s Demoiselle (G2) winner Lake Avenue, and Todd Pletcher’s romping debut winner Spice Is Nice.

There are some big changes to my top five Oaks fillies. Bast has been retired after soft tissue problem was detected in her right front ankle. In a sad turn of events, Taraz fractured her left front pastern in a workout at Oaklawn Park earlier this week, and had to be put down. 

Kentucky Oaks 2020 Points Race Recaps
Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) Recap (2-15-20) - Winner: Finite ($7.40)

This was the most important Oaks prep so far. 50 points to the winner and the Fair Grounds road to the Oaks is frequently the right path. Two-year-old filly champ British Idiom started her sophomore campaign in this spot, but Finite stole her thunder. His Glory went straight to the front from the rail as expected, and Ursula was in chase mode after a less than ideal start. Finite sat a comfortable stalking trip from the outside post, and edged closer on the backstretch and around the far turn. She took the lead in the lane and widened her advantage to 4+ lengths when all was said and done. British Idiom did not have the smoothest trip in her first start in 3+ months. She bumped and steadied into the first turn, and was racing wide heading into the backstretch. She settled in sixth place and moved up outside in the stretch. She found her best stride in the lane and was pulling away from the rest in a solid runner-up finish. Swiss Skydiver held 3rd by a neck over Tempers Rising. Impeccable Style and His Glory were next, and Ursula was the distant trailer. The top two finishers will most likely meet again in the Fair Grounds Oaks on March 21. 

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Kentucky Oaks Points Leaderboard (thru UAE Oaks 2-20-20)

70 Points: Finite

50 Points: British Idiom, Down On Da Bayou (UAE Oaks winner)

20 Points: Dubai Love (UAE Oaks runner-up)

12 Points: Donna Veloce

10 Points: Harvey’s Lil Goil, Lake Avenue, Lazy Daisy, Lucrezia, Serein, Swiss Skydiver, Tonalist’s Shape, Venetian Harbour, Wicked Whisper

7 Points: Tempers Rising

6 Points: Motu, Perfect Alibi

5 Points: Comical, Gingham

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Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2020 Contenders (2-21-20)

#1 - DONNA VELOCE - BC Juvenile Fillies & Starlet runner-up worked 5f at LRC Feb. 20.  

#2 - FINITE - Ran winning streak to five in Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2).    

#3 - BRITISH IDIOM - Rachel Alexandra Stakes (G2) runner-up finish was first loss.

#4 - VENETIAN HARBOR - Romped in last pair including Las Virgenes (G2).

#5 - HARVEY’S LIL GOIL - Daughter of American Pharoah was sharp in Busanda Feb. 2.

Article by Jarrod Horak

Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks. ​

Santa Anita Park Report (Feb. 14-17)

Santa Anita Recap for Friday (2-14-20)

Fast main track and firm turf course. Three front running winners on dirt (6.5f, 6f, 8.5f). The turf course winners were a front runner at one mile, a stalker at a mile and an eighth, and a stalker at one mile (rail at 30 feet).

Riding doubles for Abel Cedillo and Umberto Rispoli (turf routes).        

The Rainbow 6 pool was $97,222 and multiple winning jackpot ticket paid $1,331.72 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $251,760 when live racing resumes on Saturday, Feb. 15. 

Feb. 14 Claims: Race 5 - Time for Ebby ($20k, Matthew Chew).      

SA Full Card Highlights for 2-14-20
SA 1 Violent Speed/It’s a Riddle Exacta ($12.30)
SA 2 TEMPLE KNIGHTS ($7.80)
Double (races 1-2, $42.60)
Double (races 2-3, $53.40)
Pick 3 (races 1-3, $102.75)
Pick 3 (races 2-4, $214.30)
AQU 6 KEEP YOUR DISTANCE ($4.50)
AQU 7 AM IMPAZIBLE ($8.60)
AQU 9 Vitesse/Little Mazzy Exacta ($15.60)

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Santa Anita Recap for Saturday (2-15-20)

Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at six and one-half furlongs on dirt. The turf course winners were a last-to-first closer at a mile an an eighth, a dueling front runner at 5.5 furlongs, a stalker at one mile, and a closer at one mile. 

Hat trick for Umberto Rispoli (2 more turf route wins). Mike Smith booted home a pair. 

Santa Monica Stakes (G2) Recap (2-15-20) - Winner: Hard Not to Love ($3.20)

Hard Not to Love was best in this 5-horse extended sprint. Lady Ninja and Road Rager dueled, and Mother Mother stalked wide. Hard Not to Love was confidently handled outside under Mike Smith, and she she pulled well clear by 3-1/2 lengths after briefly battling with Mother Mother. The latter was a clear 2nd and Zusha gained 3rd late. Lady Ninja was 4th and Road Rager dropped back and was eased.      

The Rainbow 6 pool was $216,404 and multiple winning jackpot ticket paid $309.72 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $301,306 when live racing resumes on Sunday, Feb. 16.    

Feb. 15 Claims: Race 1 - Swamp Souffle ($32k, Steve Knapp). Race 7 - General Interest ($20k, Robert Hess Jr). 

SA Full Card Highlights for 2-15-20
SA 6 BOWL OF SPAGHETTI ($5.80)
Double (races 5-6, $67.00)
Pick 3 (races 4-6, $15.20)
Double (races 6-7, $63.60) 
Pick 3 (races 5-7, $116.25)
Pick 3 (races 6-8, $22.90)
SA Late Pick 4 (races 6-9, $80.50)
SA 9 Jurgen/Absolute Unit/Frasard Trifecta (SA Best Bet, $36.80)
AQU 8 KEPT TRUE ($5.80), Exacta ($16.80)
FG 9 SILVER DUST (FG Best Bet, $5.60)

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Santa Anita Recap for Sunday (2-16-20)

Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at six furlongs on dirt. The turf course winners were a dueling front runner at 5.5 furlongs, a stalker at one mile, a front runner at one mile, and a stalker at 5.5 furlongs (rail at 10 feet).   

Flavien Prat booted home four winners. Riding doubles for Abel Cedillo and Drayden Van Dyke. 

The Rainbow 6 pool was $188,558 and multiple winning jackpot ticket paid $182.76 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $344,475 when live racing resumes on Monday, Feb. 17.

Sweet Life Stakes (G3) Recap (2-16-20) - Winner: Laura’s Light ($2.80)

Laura’s Light was a bit better than Lighthouse. The latter dueled with Spitefulness early and opened up in the stretch. Laura’s Light hooked her in the lane and gradually wore down her stubborn rival to score by a bit less than a length. Chalk up another forwardly placed winner for Abel Cedillo. Lighthouse was clearly second best in a fine effort. Roadrunner’s Honor edged Blue Sky Baby for the show, and it was 12+ back to Florentine Diamond and Orquidias Biz. Spitefulness faded to last. 

Feb. 16 Claims: Race 2 - Isee It in Hiseyes ($10k, Blake Heap), Papa Turf ($10k, Peter Miller), Short of Ez ($10k, Kristin Mulhall). Race 6 - I Belong to Becky ($20k, Bill Spawr), Posterize ($20k, Ian Kruljac).      

SA Full Card Highlights for 2-16-20
SA 2 SHORT OF EZ ($4.00), Exacta ($5.30), Trifecta ($9.90)
Double (races 1-2, $7.60)
Double (races 2-3, $14.00) 
Pick 3 (races 1-3, $6.95)
Pick 3 (races 2-4, $8.70)
SA 5 MARGOT’S BOY (SA Best Bet, $7.40), Trifecta ($42.25)
Double (races 4-5, $17.60) 
Pick 3 (races 3-5, $20.65)
SA 6 TIGRE DI SLUGO ($6.80), Trifecta ($41.30)
Double (races 5-6, $24.20) 
Pick 3 (races 4-6, $14.95)
Double (races 6-7, $9.80)
Pick 3 (races 5-7, $9.85)
Pick 3 (races 6-8, $16.80)
SA Late Pick 4 (races 5-8, $63.00)

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Santa Anita Recap for Monday (2-17-20)

Fast main track and firm turf course. One dueling front running winner at one mile on dirt. The turf course winners were a midpack stalker at a mile and an eighth, a last-to-first closer at a mile and an eighth, a stalker at 5.5 furlongs, and a closer at 5.5 furlongs (rail at 20 feet). 

Joel Rosario guided home four winners. Victor Espinoza booted home a pair.      

The Rainbow 6 pool was $98,182 and multiple winning jackpot ticket paid $3,330.14 each. There will be a jackpot carryover of $366,954 when live racing resumes on Friday, Feb. 21. 

Wishing Well Stakes Recap (2-17-20) - Winner: An Eddie Surprise

You would think these turf sprint stakes would be able to attract more than five horses. I seem to remember bigger fields when they ran these races down the hill. Kentan Road set the pace as expected, but she got tired late. Miss Hot Legs got first run, but Eddie Surprise was moving best late and prevailed by a 1/2 length. Kentan Road held 3rd over Apache Princess, and Tonahutu trailed throughout. 

Feb. 17 Claims: Race 5 - Blackout ($32k, Peter Miller). Race 8 - Atina ($16k, Jeff Mullins), Ruby Bradley ($16k, Marcelo Polanco).      

SA Full Card Highlights for 2-17-20
SA 4 CE CE ($3.00), Exacta ($3.40)
Double (races 3-4, $11.00)
Pick 3 (races 2-4, $4.75)
OP 6 GO GOOGLE YOURSELF ($6.20)

Article by Jarrod Horak

Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.

El Camino Real Derby Video Featuring Azul Coast

Check out my El Camino Real Derby video featuring Azul Coast.

 

Kentucky Derby 2020 Report for 2-14-20 Featuring Nadal & Sole Volante

Sole Volante is the latest Kentucky Derby 2020 points race series winner, but a highly regarded sophomore not running in a points race stole the show last weekend at Santa Anita Park. Nadal became a graded winner in just his second career start for Bob Baffert, and he defeated 2-year-old champion and BC Juvenile hero Storm the Court in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at seven furlongs.  

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Nadal capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

The El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields is the only 10 points race this week, and the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds has been split into two divisions. The first place finisher in both divisions on the Risen Star will each receive 50 points, so they are essentially win and you’re in races.  

The first division of the Risen Star (race 12) includes the top three finishers from the LeComte Stakes (Enforceable, Silver State, Mr. Monomoy). Anneau d’Or is the strong favorite in the second division (races 13). The BC Juvenile & Los Al Futurity runner-up adds blinkers and gets the services of Joel Rosario.    

Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race Recaps

Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) Recap (2-8-20) - Winner: Sole Volante ($13.60)

We were supposed to learn more about Independence Hall in this race, but Sole Volante stole the spotlight with a late running victory. Chapalu and Premier Star set sail for the early lead and Independence Hall sat the right behind them. Those three separated themselves from the pack after an opening half-mile in 46.52. Independence Hall got past the tired top pair but Sole Volante was hot on his heels and went right on by in the stretch to score by 2-1/2 lengths. Independence Hall was 11+ clear of show finisher Ajaaweed. The latter was just too far back and just outfinished Tiz Rye Time by a neck. No Getting Over Me was next, and Premier Star and Chapalu were far behind the others. Sole Volante seemed best as a turf router before this race, but he won’t be returning to turf any time soon. As for Independence Hall, this is the second straight somewhat disappointing performance. His Nashua (G3) romp was outstanding, but he made mental mistakes vs. nothing in his Jerome victory, and he seemed a bit too eager to go after the two early runners in this spot. I am really starting to think that he does not want to go nine or ten furlongs. Ajaaweed has stamina but lacks gears. He might keep picking up minor awards vs. graded company.   
 
Hot Prospects: Spa City

This Street Sense colt might end up being a good one for Kiaran McLaughlin. He improved in each of his three Gulfstream starts. He clearly is not a sprinter and ran out of ground in his 6f debut. He got up for 2nd behind a romper at one mile second time out. Again, stamina is not the path to success in one turn mile races.  He tipped his hand at a mile and an eighth Feb. 8. In that race, he tracked the pace and gamely graduated by a length, and top pair finished 14+ lengths in front of the rest. Look for him to join the points race chase in the near future. 

Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2020 Contenders (2-14-20)

(1) GOUVERNEUR MORRIS (Constitution - Addison Run, by Unbridled’s Song) -  Previous Ranking (#1)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Team Valor International & WinStar Farm LLC) 

Comments: He has been my top Derby dog since I started my blog last September. In a pair of 2019 starts, he ran off the screen in his dirt sprint debut in the slop at Saratoga, and finished a determined 2nd from the outside post in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) second time out. After spending a few weeks at WinStar Farm following his second career start at Keeneland, he returned to Todd Pletcher’s barn in Florida in December 2019, and worked once a week like clockwork beginning on Dec. 22. He made his sophomore debut in an optional claimer at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 14. He was the heavy favorite in that mile and forty yards affair, and he was solid throughout. He tracked front runner Untitled and gradually wore that one down to score by a length and a quarter. Jockey John Velazquez had to work on him a bit, and he seemed to have decent energy in the late going. This was a nice first step for him, and there is little to no doubt that he was not fully cranked for this. Just like all of these Derby hopefuls, we will learn more in the coming weeks.   

Derby Points (4)

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(2) THOUSAND WORDS (Pioneerof the Nile - Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy) - Previous Ranking (#2)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stable & Spendthrift Farm)

Comments: $1 million purchase is now 3-for-3 after capturing his second points race in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) Feb. 1, and you know he was not fully cranked. There is much to like here. It just about goes without saying that Baffert knows how to prepare a horse for the Derby. This one is very classy individual and I like the fight he showed in the Los Al Futurity (G2). He turned away BC Juvenile (G1) runner-up Anneau d’Oro that day, and in the Lewis, he took dirt to the face while racing inside and behind horses. He does not blow the competition away. Rather, he just keeps coming after you with those long, grinding strides, and he sure seems to have a will to win. All of his wins were accomplished using different tactics. He stalked wide in his bow, dueled second time out, and closed from the inside last time. Those traits should come in handy as we continue down the Derby trail, and it sure seems like he is just getting warmed up at a mile and a sixteenth. On another positive note, he handled a wet track just fine at Los Alamitos late last year. 

Derby Points (20)

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(3) TIZ THE LAW (Constitution - Tizfiz, by Tiznow) - Previous Ranking (#4) 

Trainer (Barclay Tagg) - Owner (Sackatoga Stable)

Latest Workout: 4f in 50.00 (10/15) at Palm Meadows Training Center Feb. 10. 

Comments: The talented NY-bred is 3-for-4 with a 2nd, and his lone loss was a troubled, close-up 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) on a wet track at Churchill Downs Nov. 30. That is a bit of a concern because we have seen the Derby run over a wet track numerous times recently. His Holy Bull (G2) return was excellent, and it is always a good sign when a good juvenile runs fast in his sophomore debut. I really like his tactical speed, and he finishes his races in fine order. I am not thrilled with the lugging in last time, and there was probably nothing behind him at Gulfstream that day. He remains a very promising Derby hopeful, but I never get carried away with these Jan/Feb points race winners. They just never seem to win the Derby anymore. He is targeting the Florida Derby.       

Derby Points (22)

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(4) DENNIS’ MOMENT (Tiznow - Transplendid, by Elusive Quality) - Previous Ranking (#6)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing LLC)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.22 (4/35) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 8. 

Comments: He was a true all or nothing type last year. Let there be no doubt that the raw talent is there, but he seems to have a problem with the start. He clipped heels and dumped Robby Albarado in his June 23 bow at Churchill Downs, and stumbled at the start and lost all chance as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) favorite. In between, he broke his maiden by 19+ lengths at Ellis Park, and easily captured the Iroquois (G3) Sept. 14 at Churchill. He beat Scabbard in the latter race, and that one was very disappointing in the BC Juvenile and LeComte. He returned to the worktab Jan 11 and is expected to make first start as a 3-year-old in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park February 29.   
Derby Points (10) 

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(5) ANNEAU D’OR (Medaglia d’Oro - Walk Close, by Tapit) - Previous Ranking (#7) 

Trainer (Blaine D. Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop)

Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12.80 (1/8) at Golden Gate Fields Feb. 8.

Comments: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) runner-up seems to have caught a huge break at Fair Grounds. The Risen Star Stakes (G2) was split into two divisions, and the top three LeComte (G3) finishers all ended up in the first division. The Blaine Wright trainee looks like a complete standout in the second division of the Risen Star. He adds blinkers and Joel Rosario rides, and he should make short work of his seemingly overmatched Risen Star foes if he is a true Derby contender. 

Derby Points (12)

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(6) NADAL (Blame - Ascending Angel, by Pulpit) - Previous Ranking (#11) 

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Stronach Stables)

Comments: This rapidly developing Derby prospect is now 2-for-2 after starting his career on Jan. 19. His sprint debut was fast and impressive. He worked once after that, and was back in three weeks for the San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Feb. 9. He met 2-year-old champ Storm the Court, but fast Baltas returnee Ginobili ended up being his main foe. He was in the hunt throughout and showed his class in the stretch to smartly score. He might be very good, and we will learn more in his points race debut over a route of ground next time. The March 14 Rebel Stakes is most likely next target. Baffert likes to ship to Oaklawn Park, and the timing of that race makes the most sense.        

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(7) ENFORCEABLE (Tapit - Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) - Previous Ranking (#8)

Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (John Oxley) 

Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (73/148) at Fair Grounds Feb. 8.

Comments: The big thing to like about this one is his stamina (broke maiden at 9f). His late run fell short in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and he seemed like a real grinder last year. He was much better in his 3-year-old bow in the LeComte (G3) at Fair Grounds last month. He showed a better turn of foot and smartly defeated promising Asmussen runner Silver State. He meets that rival again in the first division of the Risen Star Feb. 15. The mile and an eighth distance will only help him, and he might make it two straight points race victories at Fair Grounds if he gets enough pace help. 

Derby Points (13)

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(8) INDEPENDENCE HALL (Constitution - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) -  Previous Ranking (#5)

Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Twin Creek Racing Stables)

Comments: Last time, I said am really not sure how good he really is, and I am really starting to have my doubts about his stamina now. Granted, he did win his first three starts and was miles best of the rest in a runner-up finish in the Sam F. Davis (G3). His last two starts were not nearly as good as his Nashua (G3) romp. He was fractious in the paddock and broke last in the Jerome Jan. 1. He was steered outside and was quickly in front, but he only won because his competition was vastly inferior. He shipped to Tampa Bay Downs after the Jerome, and tracked two overmatched front runners in the Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Feb. 8. He was not able to take advantage of his first run journey and Sole Volante blew right on by him in the stretch.   

Derby Points (14)

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(9) AJAAWEED (Curlin - Assiya, by Daaher) -  Previous Ranking (#4)

Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Shadwell Stable) 

Comments: I was really expecting much more in the Sam F. Davis after he almost overcame a speed bias and a loose early leader in the Remsen (G2). That stellar runner-up effort should have propelled him to bigger things. In the Davis at Tampa Bay Feb. 8, he got pace help but was miles behind in last, and he passed a few rivals to finish a distant 3rd. He just does not have the turn of foot to match the top runners in this division. The late running grinder has plenty of stamina and can keep picking up checks in upcoming points races. He will have to show more if he expects to win any of these races.    

Derby Points (7)

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(10) MAXFIELD (Street Sense - Velvety, by Bernardini) -  Previous Ranking (#9)

Trainer (Brendan P. Walsh) - Owner (Godolphin, LLC)

Comments: He broke slow and rallied strongly to capture both of his starts from off the pace including the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland. He was supposed to run in the BC Juvenile (G1), but an untimely leg injury forced him to scratch. He had surgery to remove an ankle chip on Nov. 18 and has started galloping again. He is definitely on a tight schedule and cannot afford any hiccups. For comparison purposes, Gouverneur Morris raced twice last year and the Breeders’ Futurity was also his final juvenile outing. Todd Pletcher’s colt has already worked eight times since, and he just ran and scored at Tampa Bay Feb. 14. He is way ahead of Maxfield from a conditioning standpoint. There are big concerns here. How will he fare after surgery? He cannot keep breaking slow as the competition only gets tougher. Distance sure does not seem like an issue. 

Derby Points (10)

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(11)  HONOR A. P. (Honor Code - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush) - Previous Ranking (#10)

Trainer (John Shirreffs) - Owner (C R K Stable LLC) 

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.80 (11/88) at Santa Anita Feb. 8. 

Comments: Sharp two turn maiden winner had a minor setback, which forced him to miss the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park Jan. 4. He got back on the worktab at the Great Race Place Jan. 20. The pedigree and talent is there. John Shirreffs is a very patient trainer and will not push him to make the Derby. Everything has to go right for him, and he absolutely cannot miss any more time or races. He might make his stakes debut in the San Felipe at Santa Anita on March 7.   

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THE NEXT NINE: (12) Silver State, (13) Authentic, (14) Max Player, (15) Structor, (16) Sole Volante, (17) Ete Indien, (18) Farmington Road, (19) Azul Coast, (20) Spa City

Article by Jarrod Horak

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