Check out my Jerome Stakes 2019 video analysis for Today's Racing Digest.
Monday, December 31, 2018
Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Friday, December 14, 2018
Gulfstream Park Stakes Race Video Preview for Dec. 15
Check out my graded rundown of the five stakes races from Gulfstream Park for Dec. 15.
Saturday, December 8, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: G1 Los Alamitos Futurity Preview
Trainer Bob Baffert has dominated the CashCall Futurity since the late 90’s at Hollywood Park and more recently Los Alamitos Race Course, and he has two strong contenders for the 2018 renewal.
Improbable is his first entrant and the the unbeaten colt is the morning line favorite. Mucho Gusto is his other runner and he captured his first two starts to begin his career. The former has shown the ability to relax and finish, and the latter likes to get in the mix from the opening bell.
CashCall Futurity 2018 Preview
LRC 5 (G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 2yo, 8.5f) #1 Improbable (6-5) looked great romping on the BC undercard Nov 2 (130 CPR + 143 Final Rating). He is 2-for-2 for Baffert and projects a ground saving tactical trip behind the speed under Van Dyke. #2 Savagery (8-1) removes blinkers (strong move for Miller) and stretches out in distance. He ran well throughout in his last two sprint stakes starts without much pace. He should be forwardly placed and earned career best numbers in the Bob Hope (125 CPR + 128 Final Rating). #3 Dueling (6-1) improved over a route of ground in his SA maiden win at one mile Sept. 28 (2 next out winners - 123 Final Rating). He added blinkers and failed to get involved in the BC Juvenile, and he returns to SoCal and reconnects with his winning rider Mike Smith (6-for-14 w/Hollendorfer). #4 King of Speed (15-1) switches surfaces and has no early speed. He can get the distance but is 0-for-2 on dirt and seems up against it from a pace standpoint. #5 EXTRA HOPE (7-2) added blinkers and broke through with a big two turn maiden win at SA Oct 21 (129 CPR + 129 Final Rating). He ran out of ground vs. a couple of these in the G3 Bob Hope at 7f and is back in a preferred route. Prat knows him now and his tactical speed and stamina could pull him through in this spot. He is the only entrant with a win at 8.5f. #6 Mucho Gusto (3-1) went all the way in both sprint starts for Baffert including the G3 Bob Hope (129 CPR + 132 FR). He is an obvious prominent throughout threat under Talamo. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta Box 3-5
Click here to read the rest of this blog at The Runaway Horse...
Improbable is his first entrant and the the unbeaten colt is the morning line favorite. Mucho Gusto is his other runner and he captured his first two starts to begin his career. The former has shown the ability to relax and finish, and the latter likes to get in the mix from the opening bell.
CashCall Futurity 2018 Preview
LRC 5 (G1 Los Alamitos Futurity, 2yo, 8.5f) #1 Improbable (6-5) looked great romping on the BC undercard Nov 2 (130 CPR + 143 Final Rating). He is 2-for-2 for Baffert and projects a ground saving tactical trip behind the speed under Van Dyke. #2 Savagery (8-1) removes blinkers (strong move for Miller) and stretches out in distance. He ran well throughout in his last two sprint stakes starts without much pace. He should be forwardly placed and earned career best numbers in the Bob Hope (125 CPR + 128 Final Rating). #3 Dueling (6-1) improved over a route of ground in his SA maiden win at one mile Sept. 28 (2 next out winners - 123 Final Rating). He added blinkers and failed to get involved in the BC Juvenile, and he returns to SoCal and reconnects with his winning rider Mike Smith (6-for-14 w/Hollendorfer). #4 King of Speed (15-1) switches surfaces and has no early speed. He can get the distance but is 0-for-2 on dirt and seems up against it from a pace standpoint. #5 EXTRA HOPE (7-2) added blinkers and broke through with a big two turn maiden win at SA Oct 21 (129 CPR + 129 Final Rating). He ran out of ground vs. a couple of these in the G3 Bob Hope at 7f and is back in a preferred route. Prat knows him now and his tactical speed and stamina could pull him through in this spot. He is the only entrant with a win at 8.5f. #6 Mucho Gusto (3-1) went all the way in both sprint starts for Baffert including the G3 Bob Hope (129 CPR + 132 FR). He is an obvious prominent throughout threat under Talamo. THE PLAYS: #5 to win, Exacta Box 3-5
Click here to read the rest of this blog at The Runaway Horse...
Kentucky Oaks 2019 Blog: G1 Starlet Preview
The next Kentucky Oaks 2019 points race is the Grade I Starlet at Los Alamitos Race Course on Saturday, Dec. 8, and Bob Baffert saddles the two favorites.
American Pharoah’s sister Chasing Yesterday is the race favorite for Baffert, and she has been very good in sprint races. Mother Mother is also conditioned by Baffert and she looms a pace factor at the very least.
Grade I Starlet Analysis (12-8-18)
LRC 7 (G1 Starlet, 2yo fil, 8.5f) #1 VIBRANCE (5-2) started her career in a turf route and she ended up 4th. She was 1 of 3 next out winners from that heat in a flat mile dirt race Aug 29, and she followed that up with a clear 2nd to runaway winner Bellafina in the G1 Chandelier. She finished a clear 3rd behind sharp front running winner Jaywalk in the BC Juvenile Fillies last time and Prat rides the early-pressing threat today. She improved her FIRE, CPR, + Final Ratings in all four starts (129 Final in Breeders’ Cup). #2 Mother Mother (2-1) was up on the pace in all three starts (2 wins and a 2nd) and she added blinkers and held on in the Rags to Riches at CD Oct 28 (one turn mile - 132 Final Rating). The runner-up from her last, Molto Bella, went off a 3-1 in the G2 Demoiselle Dec 1 and finished 4th (beaten 18 lengths). Show finisher High Regard returned to land the show in the G2 Golden Rod. #3 Sold It (20-1) has a tough task for Doug O’Neill. She set a pressured pace and held 3rd in her dirt sprint bow at 6.5f, and she dueled and held on by a neck in a turf sprint Nov 15. She was the favorite in her first two starts and is a longshot pace factor today. #4 Oxy Lady (5-1) added blinkers and romped in the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov 2 (136 CPR + 135 Final), but that is looking like a negative race (inflated number). Clear runner-up Enliven was pummeled by 23 lengths as the chalk in the Demoiselle Dec 1. Show finisher Surge of Pride was beaten by 10+ vs. NY-bred stakes foes Nov 23. 4th place finisher Takecharge Mirella was a well-beaten 3rd of 4 in an OC-75k/1x at AQU Nov 29. #5 Enaya Alrabb (12-1) added blinkers and improved to graduate in a one mile dirt race second time out at SA Oct 25. She owns the lowest numbers. #6 Chasing Yesterday (9-5) is 3-for-3 in SoCal dirt sprints and her only below par effort was a 7th of 11 in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga second time out. She beat 2 rivals in the Desi Arnaz at 7f Nov 12 and the numbers from that race were disappointing. She can win if she earns Anoakia-like numbers (Oct 14 6f SA - 136 CPR + 137 Final). THE PLAYS - #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-4
Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race Recaps
Golden Rod Recap (11-24-18) - Winner: Liora
Restless Rider was the overwhelming favorite in this wet track route under the Twin Spires, and she sat a comfortable stalking trip in third behind front runner Liora. Those two hooked up in the stretch and when the tussle ended, it was 27-1 longshot Liora by a nose. Restless Rider was a clear 2nd and was followed by High Regard, Champagne Anyone, Gold Credit, Princess Causeway, Break Curfew, and Reflect. The wet track may have affected some of the performances, and I am just not sure what to make of the results. I have been a fan of Restless Rider for quite some time and have been disappointed with her overall progress this fall. She deserves a break.
Demoiselle Recap (12-1-18) - Winner: Positive Spirit
The fast main track was deep and the rail was not the place to be early in the day, and this event was carded early (race 4). To give you an idea of the bad inside, Joe Bravo steered Enliven at least three paths away from the inside even though she broke from the rail post. Positive Spirit was up on the pace and wide throughout, and she rode the good portion of the track to a 10+ length score under Manny Franco. Afleet Destiny rallied wide to secure the place over outside front runner Filly Joel. It was more than five lengths back to Molto Bella in 4th, and she was followed by Enliven, Jennifer’s Dream, and Girl of Tosconova. The final time was 1:56.01, and note that the track played considerably faster and the inside lanes were not nearly as bad later in the day. For final time comparisons, 2-year-old males in the Remsen (race 8) completed the same distance in 1:51.34. Positive Spirit is bred to be a good one but it is tough to get a true early gauge on the 2018 Demoiselle.
Kentucky Oaks Points Leaderboard (through Demoiselle Stakes)
1. Jaywalk - 30 points
2. Restless Rider - 22 points
3. Bellafina - 12 points
4. Serengeti Empress - 10 points
5. Positive Spirit - 10 points
6. Liora - 10 points
7. Vibrance - 8 points
Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2019 Contenders (12-7-18)
#1 - JAYWALK - Two-time grade one winner continues to improve for John Servis (saddled 2016 Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia).
#2 - VIBRANCE - All four starts were routes and she hit the board in both grade one attempts. She goes next in the Dec. 8 Starlet.
#3 - RESTLESS RIDER - Consistent filly fired exacta shots in all six outings. She likes Churchill and is a grade one winner.
#4 - OXY LADY - Improving filly owns a route pedigree (Oxbow-A. P. Indy) and looked good winning the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov. 2.
#5 - POSITIVE SPIRIT - Always Dreaming’s 1/2 sister has plenty of upside and will spend the winter in Florida.
American Pharoah’s sister Chasing Yesterday is the race favorite for Baffert, and she has been very good in sprint races. Mother Mother is also conditioned by Baffert and she looms a pace factor at the very least.
Grade I Starlet Analysis (12-8-18)
LRC 7 (G1 Starlet, 2yo fil, 8.5f) #1 VIBRANCE (5-2) started her career in a turf route and she ended up 4th. She was 1 of 3 next out winners from that heat in a flat mile dirt race Aug 29, and she followed that up with a clear 2nd to runaway winner Bellafina in the G1 Chandelier. She finished a clear 3rd behind sharp front running winner Jaywalk in the BC Juvenile Fillies last time and Prat rides the early-pressing threat today. She improved her FIRE, CPR, + Final Ratings in all four starts (129 Final in Breeders’ Cup). #2 Mother Mother (2-1) was up on the pace in all three starts (2 wins and a 2nd) and she added blinkers and held on in the Rags to Riches at CD Oct 28 (one turn mile - 132 Final Rating). The runner-up from her last, Molto Bella, went off a 3-1 in the G2 Demoiselle Dec 1 and finished 4th (beaten 18 lengths). Show finisher High Regard returned to land the show in the G2 Golden Rod. #3 Sold It (20-1) has a tough task for Doug O’Neill. She set a pressured pace and held 3rd in her dirt sprint bow at 6.5f, and she dueled and held on by a neck in a turf sprint Nov 15. She was the favorite in her first two starts and is a longshot pace factor today. #4 Oxy Lady (5-1) added blinkers and romped in the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov 2 (136 CPR + 135 Final), but that is looking like a negative race (inflated number). Clear runner-up Enliven was pummeled by 23 lengths as the chalk in the Demoiselle Dec 1. Show finisher Surge of Pride was beaten by 10+ vs. NY-bred stakes foes Nov 23. 4th place finisher Takecharge Mirella was a well-beaten 3rd of 4 in an OC-75k/1x at AQU Nov 29. #5 Enaya Alrabb (12-1) added blinkers and improved to graduate in a one mile dirt race second time out at SA Oct 25. She owns the lowest numbers. #6 Chasing Yesterday (9-5) is 3-for-3 in SoCal dirt sprints and her only below par effort was a 7th of 11 in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga second time out. She beat 2 rivals in the Desi Arnaz at 7f Nov 12 and the numbers from that race were disappointing. She can win if she earns Anoakia-like numbers (Oct 14 6f SA - 136 CPR + 137 Final). THE PLAYS - #1 to win, Exacta Box 1-4
Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race Recaps
Golden Rod Recap (11-24-18) - Winner: Liora
Restless Rider was the overwhelming favorite in this wet track route under the Twin Spires, and she sat a comfortable stalking trip in third behind front runner Liora. Those two hooked up in the stretch and when the tussle ended, it was 27-1 longshot Liora by a nose. Restless Rider was a clear 2nd and was followed by High Regard, Champagne Anyone, Gold Credit, Princess Causeway, Break Curfew, and Reflect. The wet track may have affected some of the performances, and I am just not sure what to make of the results. I have been a fan of Restless Rider for quite some time and have been disappointed with her overall progress this fall. She deserves a break.
Demoiselle Recap (12-1-18) - Winner: Positive Spirit
The fast main track was deep and the rail was not the place to be early in the day, and this event was carded early (race 4). To give you an idea of the bad inside, Joe Bravo steered Enliven at least three paths away from the inside even though she broke from the rail post. Positive Spirit was up on the pace and wide throughout, and she rode the good portion of the track to a 10+ length score under Manny Franco. Afleet Destiny rallied wide to secure the place over outside front runner Filly Joel. It was more than five lengths back to Molto Bella in 4th, and she was followed by Enliven, Jennifer’s Dream, and Girl of Tosconova. The final time was 1:56.01, and note that the track played considerably faster and the inside lanes were not nearly as bad later in the day. For final time comparisons, 2-year-old males in the Remsen (race 8) completed the same distance in 1:51.34. Positive Spirit is bred to be a good one but it is tough to get a true early gauge on the 2018 Demoiselle.
Kentucky Oaks Points Leaderboard (through Demoiselle Stakes)
1. Jaywalk - 30 points
2. Restless Rider - 22 points
3. Bellafina - 12 points
4. Serengeti Empress - 10 points
5. Positive Spirit - 10 points
6. Liora - 10 points
7. Vibrance - 8 points
Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2019 Contenders (12-7-18)
#1 - JAYWALK - Two-time grade one winner continues to improve for John Servis (saddled 2016 Oaks winner Cathryn Sophia).
#2 - VIBRANCE - All four starts were routes and she hit the board in both grade one attempts. She goes next in the Dec. 8 Starlet.
#3 - RESTLESS RIDER - Consistent filly fired exacta shots in all six outings. She likes Churchill and is a grade one winner.
#4 - OXY LADY - Improving filly owns a route pedigree (Oxbow-A. P. Indy) and looked good winning the G3 Tempted at Aqueduct Nov. 2.
#5 - POSITIVE SPIRIT - Always Dreaming’s 1/2 sister has plenty of upside and will spend the winter in Florida.
Friday, December 7, 2018
Friday, November 30, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Remsen Stakes Analysis
Trainer Chad Brown finished 2nd in the Derby with Good Magic earlier this year and has several promising Kentucky Derby 2019 candidates including Remsen Stakes contender Network Effect.
Network Effect has only started twice and he ran well both times. If he is going to win his first stakes race on Saturday, he will have to get past Maximus Mischief. The Parx shipper is 2-for-2 and should makes his presence felt throughout at Aqueduct on Dec. 1.
Remsen Stakes 2018 Analysis (12-1-18)
AQU 8 (G2 Remsen, 9f) Looking at the TRD Race Header, Network Effect has the best combination of class (RCL) and CPR (see lines 4-5 in the race header). #5 NETWORK EFFECT (7-5) followed up a sharp stalk/pounce debut maiden win in an extended sprint at Saratoga with a clear place finish in the G3 Nashua. He has a strong local stakes effort under his belt and figures to be tough to handle today for Castellano/Brown. #6 Maximus Mischief (6-5) romped in both sprint starts at Parx and he owns the best overall numbers. He gets a class and stamina test in this spot, and he has beaten a total of eight horses in two starts (beat just 2 rivals Oct 20). #1 Jungle Warrior (8-1) switches surfaces for his new trainer Jimmy Jerkens. #3 Bourbon War (5-1) won his off the turf bow at Aqueduct at one mile Nov 14. He has a strong pedigree and Ortiz Jr. hops aboard for Mark Hennig. THE PLAYS: Exacta 1-3/5, Trifecta 5/1-3/ALL, Trifecta 5/ALL/1-3
Click here to read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse
Network Effect has only started twice and he ran well both times. If he is going to win his first stakes race on Saturday, he will have to get past Maximus Mischief. The Parx shipper is 2-for-2 and should makes his presence felt throughout at Aqueduct on Dec. 1.
Remsen Stakes 2018 Analysis (12-1-18)
AQU 8 (G2 Remsen, 9f) Looking at the TRD Race Header, Network Effect has the best combination of class (RCL) and CPR (see lines 4-5 in the race header). #5 NETWORK EFFECT (7-5) followed up a sharp stalk/pounce debut maiden win in an extended sprint at Saratoga with a clear place finish in the G3 Nashua. He has a strong local stakes effort under his belt and figures to be tough to handle today for Castellano/Brown. #6 Maximus Mischief (6-5) romped in both sprint starts at Parx and he owns the best overall numbers. He gets a class and stamina test in this spot, and he has beaten a total of eight horses in two starts (beat just 2 rivals Oct 20). #1 Jungle Warrior (8-1) switches surfaces for his new trainer Jimmy Jerkens. #3 Bourbon War (5-1) won his off the turf bow at Aqueduct at one mile Nov 14. He has a strong pedigree and Ortiz Jr. hops aboard for Mark Hennig. THE PLAYS: Exacta 1-3/5, Trifecta 5/1-3/ALL, Trifecta 5/ALL/1-3
Click here to read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse
Saturday, November 24, 2018
Friday, November 16, 2018
Saturday, November 10, 2018
Thursday, November 1, 2018
Friday, October 26, 2018
Friday, October 19, 2018
Saturday, October 6, 2018
Saturday, September 29, 2018
Kentucky Oaks 2019 Points Race: G1 Chandelier from Santa Anita Park
Check out my G1 Chandelier Stakes video from Santa Anita Park for Today's Racing Digest. This is a 2019 Kentucky Oaks points race.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race: G1 American Pharoah Stakes Video
Check out my American Pharoah Stakes video from Santa Anita for Today's Racing Digest. This is a Kentucky Derby 2019 points race.
Saturday, September 22, 2018
Saturday, September 15, 2018
First Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog
Kentucky Derby 2019 is right around the corner. Well, not quite, but we are well into the month of September and it is time to roll out my annual Derby contenders list. I am pleased to announce that I will once again be including Today’s Racing Digest data in each of my Derby blogs and videos.
Eleven of the last eighteen Kentucky Derby winners graduated by October 4, including eight of the last twelve. Kentucky Derby 2012 hero I’ll Have Another captured his career debut at Hollywood Park on July 3 of his juvenile season.
Kentucky Derby 2013 winner Orb lost his first three juvenile outings. He graduated at the Big A on November 24, 2012, his first of five straight wins, culminating in an off the pace tally under the Twin Spires on May 4.
Kentucky Derby 2014 winner California Chrome earned his diploma in his second career start ($100k Graduation – 5.5f) at Del Mar on July 31, 2013. He ended his juvenile season with an easy win in the King Glorious, the beginning of a 6-race winning streak that ended with a dead-heat for 4th in the Belmont Stakes.
Triple Crown 2015 winner American Pharaoh graduated in the G1 Del Mar Futurity on 9-3-14, the beginning of an 8-race win streak (7 Grade 1‘s and a Grade 2).
Kentucky Derby 2016 winner Nyquist graduated on June 5, 2015 at Santa Anita Park, the start of an 8-race winning streak ending with a smart victory under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.
Kentucky Derby 2017 winner Always Dreaming hit the board in his first two juvenile starts before graduating in his 3-year-old bow at Tampa Bay on January 25, 2017.
2018 Triple Crown hero Justify did not start his career until February of his 3-year-old campaign.
Looking back, some of my initial September Derby blog juvenile contenders panned out, like my early 2010-2011 Number 1’s Stay Thirsty and Alpha. Both won the G1 Travers during their 3-year-old seasons. Others turn out to be disappointments like Fortify, Purple Sky, and Silver Assault, and others got hurt along the way like Mastery.
International Star was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2015 contender and he was scratched the morning of the Derby. Three of my original eleven Derby contenders made it to the starting gate that year including winner American Pharoah. The other two were Frosted and Carpe Diem.
Mohaymen was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2016 contender and the 4-time grade 2 winner (Nashua, Remsen, Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth) finished 4th on the first Saturday in May.
Four of my original “exceptional eleven” contenders made it to the starting gate in Derby 2018 (Good Magic, Solomini, Bolt d’Oro, Free Drop Billy).
An ideal Kentucky Derby contender would have a solid juvenile foundation, a blended speed-stamina pedigree, sharp graded stakes form, tactical speed, and winning connections. Strong pre-Derby works are the icing on the cake.
The 2019 Derby points race series kicks off with the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs September 15, 2018.
You can read the rest of this blog post at The Runaway Horse
Eleven of the last eighteen Kentucky Derby winners graduated by October 4, including eight of the last twelve. Kentucky Derby 2012 hero I’ll Have Another captured his career debut at Hollywood Park on July 3 of his juvenile season.
Kentucky Derby 2013 winner Orb lost his first three juvenile outings. He graduated at the Big A on November 24, 2012, his first of five straight wins, culminating in an off the pace tally under the Twin Spires on May 4.
Kentucky Derby 2014 winner California Chrome earned his diploma in his second career start ($100k Graduation – 5.5f) at Del Mar on July 31, 2013. He ended his juvenile season with an easy win in the King Glorious, the beginning of a 6-race winning streak that ended with a dead-heat for 4th in the Belmont Stakes.
Triple Crown 2015 winner American Pharaoh graduated in the G1 Del Mar Futurity on 9-3-14, the beginning of an 8-race win streak (7 Grade 1‘s and a Grade 2).
Kentucky Derby 2016 winner Nyquist graduated on June 5, 2015 at Santa Anita Park, the start of an 8-race winning streak ending with a smart victory under the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May.
Kentucky Derby 2017 winner Always Dreaming hit the board in his first two juvenile starts before graduating in his 3-year-old bow at Tampa Bay on January 25, 2017.
2018 Triple Crown hero Justify did not start his career until February of his 3-year-old campaign.
Looking back, some of my initial September Derby blog juvenile contenders panned out, like my early 2010-2011 Number 1’s Stay Thirsty and Alpha. Both won the G1 Travers during their 3-year-old seasons. Others turn out to be disappointments like Fortify, Purple Sky, and Silver Assault, and others got hurt along the way like Mastery.
International Star was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2015 contender and he was scratched the morning of the Derby. Three of my original eleven Derby contenders made it to the starting gate that year including winner American Pharoah. The other two were Frosted and Carpe Diem.
Mohaymen was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2016 contender and the 4-time grade 2 winner (Nashua, Remsen, Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth) finished 4th on the first Saturday in May.
Four of my original “exceptional eleven” contenders made it to the starting gate in Derby 2018 (Good Magic, Solomini, Bolt d’Oro, Free Drop Billy).
An ideal Kentucky Derby contender would have a solid juvenile foundation, a blended speed-stamina pedigree, sharp graded stakes form, tactical speed, and winning connections. Strong pre-Derby works are the icing on the cake.
The 2019 Derby points race series kicks off with the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs September 15, 2018.
You can read the rest of this blog post at The Runaway Horse
Sunday, September 2, 2018
Sunday, August 19, 2018
Friday, August 17, 2018
Friday, August 10, 2018
Friday, August 3, 2018
Saturday, July 28, 2018
Sunday, July 22, 2018
Eddie Read Stakes Video from Del Mar
Check out my Eddie Read Stakes video analysis from Del Mar for Today's Racing Digest.
Friday, July 13, 2018
Forbidden Apple Stakes 2018 Video Analysis from Belmont Park
Check out my video analysis of the 2018 Forbidden Apple Stakes from Belmont Park for Today's Racing Digest.
Sunday, July 8, 2018
Victory Ride Stakes 2018 Video Analysis From Belmont Park
Check out my video analysis of the 2018 Victory Ride Stakes from Belmont Park for Today's Racing Digest.
Friday, June 29, 2018
Friday, June 22, 2018
Saturday, June 16, 2018
Stephen Foster Handicap 2018 Video Analysis
Check out my video analysis of the 2018 Stephen Foster Handicap for Today's Racing Digest.
Saturday, June 9, 2018
Belmont Stakes 2018 Blog and Video
Justify has answered all of the questions after five career starts, and the 2018 Belmont Stakes figures to be his toughest test to date. Can he complete an improbable Triple Crown sweep, or will he be another in a long line of Belmont Park close calls and near misses?
BELMONT STAKES 2018 FIELD (in post position order, with comments)
Belmont Park Race 11 (6-9-18) - Post Time - 6:46pm ET
#1 - Justify (4-5) - The unbeaten Triple Crown hopeful owns descending numbers and might be over the top. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert know how to win the Belmont Stakes. His best chance is to control proceedings throughout, just like American Pharoah did in 2015.
#2 - Free Drop Billy (30-1) - Son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags is firing bullets for this and might show more speed than expected.
#3 - Bravazo (8-1) - Preakness runner-up is rounding back into form and is capable of turning the tables on Justify. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas has saddled four Belmont Stakes winners.
#4 - Hofburg (9-2) - Florida Derby runner-up found trouble in the 20-horse Derby stampede. He is lightly raced and appears to be sitting on a top effort. He has the best long distance pedigree, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Bill Mott have both won the Belmont Stakes before.
#5 - Restoring Hope (30-1) - Wood Memorial show finisher disliked the sloppy track in the Pat Day Mile. He is the other Baffert runner.
#6 - Gronkowski (12-1) - Got sick and missed the Kentucky Derby, and his new trainer Chad Brown chose this ambitious spot for his US bow. He is training well, and jockey Jose Ortiz guided home Tapwrit in the 2017 Belmont Stakes.
#7 - Tenfold (12-1) - Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing. He tries to give trainer Steve Asmussen his second Belmont Stakes winner (saddled 2016 Belmont hero Creator).
#8 - Vino Rosso (8-1) - Wood Memorial winner raced wide from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and the wet track did not help either. He can bounce back for John Velazquez (2 Belmont wins) and Todd Pletcher (3 Belmont Stakes wins).
#9 - Noble Indy (30-1) - He is the second entrant for Pletcher. He failed to show his customary early speed from post 19 in the Kentucky Derby. He was all over the pace in his game G2 LA Derby win, and he should be close up from the outset under Javier Castellano.
#10 - Blended Citizen (15-1) - G3 Peter Pan winner is the only entrant with Belmont Park experience, and two of his wins were at 9f. He is improving and should be rallying from off the pace. He he seems to be improving at the right time.
Written by Jarrod Horak (The Runaway Horse Founder and Handicapper)
Photo by Josh Chicorelli (The Runaway Horse Handicapper)
Video Editor: Stacy Edwards (The Runaway Horse Photographer/Video Editor)
BELMONT STAKES 2018 FIELD (in post position order, with comments)
Belmont Park Race 11 (6-9-18) - Post Time - 6:46pm ET
#1 - Justify (4-5) - The unbeaten Triple Crown hopeful owns descending numbers and might be over the top. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert know how to win the Belmont Stakes. His best chance is to control proceedings throughout, just like American Pharoah did in 2015.
#2 - Free Drop Billy (30-1) - Son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags is firing bullets for this and might show more speed than expected.
#3 - Bravazo (8-1) - Preakness runner-up is rounding back into form and is capable of turning the tables on Justify. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas has saddled four Belmont Stakes winners.
#4 - Hofburg (9-2) - Florida Derby runner-up found trouble in the 20-horse Derby stampede. He is lightly raced and appears to be sitting on a top effort. He has the best long distance pedigree, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Bill Mott have both won the Belmont Stakes before.
#5 - Restoring Hope (30-1) - Wood Memorial show finisher disliked the sloppy track in the Pat Day Mile. He is the other Baffert runner.
#6 - Gronkowski (12-1) - Got sick and missed the Kentucky Derby, and his new trainer Chad Brown chose this ambitious spot for his US bow. He is training well, and jockey Jose Ortiz guided home Tapwrit in the 2017 Belmont Stakes.
#7 - Tenfold (12-1) - Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing. He tries to give trainer Steve Asmussen his second Belmont Stakes winner (saddled 2016 Belmont hero Creator).
#8 - Vino Rosso (8-1) - Wood Memorial winner raced wide from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and the wet track did not help either. He can bounce back for John Velazquez (2 Belmont wins) and Todd Pletcher (3 Belmont Stakes wins).
#9 - Noble Indy (30-1) - He is the second entrant for Pletcher. He failed to show his customary early speed from post 19 in the Kentucky Derby. He was all over the pace in his game G2 LA Derby win, and he should be close up from the outset under Javier Castellano.
#10 - Blended Citizen (15-1) - G3 Peter Pan winner is the only entrant with Belmont Park experience, and two of his wins were at 9f. He is improving and should be rallying from off the pace. He he seems to be improving at the right time.
Written by Jarrod Horak (The Runaway Horse Founder and Handicapper)
Photo by Josh Chicorelli (The Runaway Horse Handicapper)
Video Editor: Stacy Edwards (The Runaway Horse Photographer/Video Editor)
Saturday, June 2, 2018
Belmont Stakes 2018 Blog and Video featuring Triple Crown hopeful Justify
Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Justify is one race away from sweeping the 2018 Triple Crown series for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith.
Bob Baffert had three runners win the Derby and Preakness before losing the Belmont Stakes (War Emblem, Silver Charm, Real Quiet). Point Given was his first Belmont Stakes winner in 2001, and American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown sweep with a front running victory in the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Veteran jockey Mike Smith used to be a regular on the New York circuit back in the day, and he has two Belmont Stakes wins to his credit (Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice).
With a bit more than a week to go, up to eleven horses are expected to try to spoil Justify’s Triple Crown party.
Belmont Stakes 2018 Probable Field (as of 6-1-18):
Bandua: His trainer Dermot Weld saddled 1990 Belmont Stakes winner Go and Go. As of this writing, his chances of shipping to New York are 50/50.
Blended Citizen: Doug O’Neill’s Peter Pan Stakes winner can seemingly run all day. The last Peter Pan winner to capture the Belmont Stakes was Tonalist in 2014.
Bravazo: The G2 Risen Star winner returned to form in a strong place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Wayne Lukas turned back the clock and worked the son of Awesome Again at flat mile at Churchill Downs earlier this week.
Free Drop Billy: Trainer Dale Romans says the longer the better for the son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags. Look for him to stalk the Belmont pace under Robby Albarado.
Gronkowski: He got sick and missed a scheduled start in the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown trains the overseas synthetic specialist now, and he had his first Belmont Stakes workout on May 26. He is expected to work one more time this weekend. His jockey Jose Ortiz won last year's Belmont aboard Tapwrit.
Hofburg: Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. guided Creator home in the 2016 Belmont Stakes. This lightly raced colt was 2nd in the Florida Derby and 7th in the Kentucky Derby in his last two starts.
Justify: The Triple Crown is clearly within reach for the unbeaten son of Scat Daddy. He fired a big half-mile bullet workout at Churchill Downs on May 29. Look for him to be on or near the lead with 2-3 furlongs to go, and that is where the litmus test begins.
Noble Indy: His trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners, and Jockey Javier Castellano is still searching for his first Belmont victory. The LA Derby hero was hung out to dry from post 19 on a wet track in the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, is training well, and should be forwardly placed on June 9.
Restoring Hope: Justify’s stablemate failed to handle the wet surface in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Before that, he landed the show in the Wood Memorial. Flavien Prat will ride the grinding type.
Seahenge: He won an overseas Group 2 event last year as a juvenile for Aidan O’Brien. In his last two starts, he was 5th in the UAE Derby and 7th in the Pat Day Mile.
Tenfold: The Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing for Steve Asmussen (saddled Belmont Stakes winner Creator in 2016). He will probably stalk the pace at Big Sandy.
Vino Rosso: The Wood Memorial winner had no shot from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and he ended up a respectable 9th on a wet track that day. His sire Curlin just missed in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, and his rider John Velazquez has two Belmont wins (Rags to Riches, Union Rags). As mentioned earlier, trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners.
Bob Baffert had three runners win the Derby and Preakness before losing the Belmont Stakes (War Emblem, Silver Charm, Real Quiet). Point Given was his first Belmont Stakes winner in 2001, and American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown sweep with a front running victory in the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Veteran jockey Mike Smith used to be a regular on the New York circuit back in the day, and he has two Belmont Stakes wins to his credit (Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice).
With a bit more than a week to go, up to eleven horses are expected to try to spoil Justify’s Triple Crown party.
Belmont Stakes 2018 Probable Field (as of 6-1-18):
Bandua: His trainer Dermot Weld saddled 1990 Belmont Stakes winner Go and Go. As of this writing, his chances of shipping to New York are 50/50.
Blended Citizen: Doug O’Neill’s Peter Pan Stakes winner can seemingly run all day. The last Peter Pan winner to capture the Belmont Stakes was Tonalist in 2014.
Bravazo: The G2 Risen Star winner returned to form in a strong place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Wayne Lukas turned back the clock and worked the son of Awesome Again at flat mile at Churchill Downs earlier this week.
Free Drop Billy: Trainer Dale Romans says the longer the better for the son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags. Look for him to stalk the Belmont pace under Robby Albarado.
Gronkowski: He got sick and missed a scheduled start in the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown trains the overseas synthetic specialist now, and he had his first Belmont Stakes workout on May 26. He is expected to work one more time this weekend. His jockey Jose Ortiz won last year's Belmont aboard Tapwrit.
Hofburg: Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. guided Creator home in the 2016 Belmont Stakes. This lightly raced colt was 2nd in the Florida Derby and 7th in the Kentucky Derby in his last two starts.
Justify: The Triple Crown is clearly within reach for the unbeaten son of Scat Daddy. He fired a big half-mile bullet workout at Churchill Downs on May 29. Look for him to be on or near the lead with 2-3 furlongs to go, and that is where the litmus test begins.
Noble Indy: His trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners, and Jockey Javier Castellano is still searching for his first Belmont victory. The LA Derby hero was hung out to dry from post 19 on a wet track in the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, is training well, and should be forwardly placed on June 9.
Restoring Hope: Justify’s stablemate failed to handle the wet surface in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Before that, he landed the show in the Wood Memorial. Flavien Prat will ride the grinding type.
Seahenge: He won an overseas Group 2 event last year as a juvenile for Aidan O’Brien. In his last two starts, he was 5th in the UAE Derby and 7th in the Pat Day Mile.
Tenfold: The Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing for Steve Asmussen (saddled Belmont Stakes winner Creator in 2016). He will probably stalk the pace at Big Sandy.
Vino Rosso: The Wood Memorial winner had no shot from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and he ended up a respectable 9th on a wet track that day. His sire Curlin just missed in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, and his rider John Velazquez has two Belmont wins (Rags to Riches, Union Rags). As mentioned earlier, trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners.
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Gold Cup at Santa Anita Park Video Analysis
Check out my free video analysis of the G1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Park below, and make sure to visit Today's Racing Digest for all of your handicapping needs.
Friday, May 18, 2018
Preakness Stakes Video Preview: Justify vs. Good Magic
Check out my Preakness 2018 preview for Today's Racing Digest, and visit The Runaway Horse Preakness 2018 page for extensive coverage on the second leg of the Triple Crown.
Saturday, May 12, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Recap + Preakness Preview Video
Check out my Kentucky Derby 2018 recap plus Preakness recap video for Today's Racing Digest below.
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Friday, May 4, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Justify Headlines Derby Field
Post positions have been drawn for Kentucky Derby 2018 and we are a few days away from the big dance. Justify, the 3-1 morning line favorite, will break from post position seven.
Inner posts can be the kiss of death in the Derby. My Derby top Lookin At Lucky had a miserable trip from the rail in 2010, but came back two weeks later to capture the Preakness.
My Derby top Union Rags was shuffled out of contention from an inner post in 2012 but returned five weeks later to capture the Belmont Stakes. His son Free Drop Billy drew post two this year and might get shuffled back early.
For Derby post positions, I want my top win contenders to be as far away from the rail post as possible and 2015 was a good example. Early/pressing type American Pharoah drew post 18 and moved in a bit after scratches. He was free and clear and in the hunt throughout and his outer draw was the key to his victory over Firing Line and Dortmund.
Nyquist stalked the pace from post 13 en route to a 1-1/4 length victory over late striding Exaggerator in Kentucky Derby 2016.
The last four Derby winners (California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming) all had early/pressing versatility and comfortable forwardly placed trips from advantageous post positions.
From a 2018 post position standpoint, all of the main contenders landed decent positions. I think Mendelssohn did very well to land post 14. He should attend the pace while in the clear, and his draw seems to enhance his chances.
Bolt d’Oro was a big post position winner after landing 11. He projects a free and clear stalking trip.
Good Magic could fall into a beautiful ground saving stalking trip behind the speed. He could easily ride the inner portion of the track to victory.
Magnum Moon should not have any issues from post 16 and will probably stalk the pace outside.
As for post time favorite Justify, he did okay getting post 7. The key to his success is relaxing early behind likely front runner Promises Fulfilled from post 3. Flameaway has been on the engine this week, and he figures to attend the pace from post 4.
Audible is versatile and Javier Castellano will probably take up a tactical position from post 5.
At the other end of the spectrum, Firenze Fire drew the dreaded rail, but he was not a serious top four contender anyway. Combatant might have a tough go of it from post 20.
Noble Indy might be in trouble from post 19. He likes to be forwardly placed and could end up wide chasing lively fractions.
Solomini does not really have an effective winning running style, and whatever Flavien Prat decides, he better make a quick decision from post 17.
Vino Rosso will likely be coming from off the pace under John Velazquez from post 18. I would not say that he was a post position winner. It all depends on the break, and he may or may not end up with a wide or uncomfortable journey.
Everybody else did fine in the draw department including Lone Sailor (post 8), Hofburg (9), My Boy Jack (10), Enticed, (12), Bravazo, (13), and Instilled Regard (15). Blended Citizen is on the also-eligible list.
Jarrod Horak’s Final “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.20 (10/70) at Santa Anita Park on April 28.
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I rolled out my first list on 9-25-17, and I see no reason to abandon him now. His six lifetime starts have produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the 3-time graded stakes winner (2 grade one wins) has a versatile running style. He had his first Derby work at Santa Anita Park on April 22. In that move, he was eager to work, getting his first half-mile in 46.60, and cruising through five panels in a brisk 58.40. He finished his work on the clubhouse turn under slight urging. In his final Derby work on April 28, he worked a rock solid solo half-mile under a very still Victor Espinoza, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).
Derby Points (104)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.20 (8/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: The 2-year-old champion was a flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he quickly put that effort in the rear view mirror after a rock solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post position in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. The 2017 BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a great sign, but the Blue Grass was definitely a step in the right direction. Trainer Chad Brown has methodically brought him along slowly this year, and he appears to be sitting on a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. His April 21 workout at Keeneland was excellent. The solo half-mile move was strong from start to finish, and he went an additional eighth of a mile in 1:01.40, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60. He had his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 28, and once again, he was impressive. His gallops leading up to the Derby have been strong as well.
Derby Points (134)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (39/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: There is not much that this New York-bred colt cannot do. He brings a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and he beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He sat in 2nd in his romping Holy Bull Stakes victory (moderate pace). In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking hot, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt has never been a strong work horse, but his April 13 bullet was an exception. In that move, he worked inside older stablemate You’re to Blame, and finished on even terms after moving outside (pulled clear on the gallop out in 1:02.22). He worked in company with 2017 Derby also-ran Patch on April 20, and pulled well clear on the gallop out in 1:15.80. The only possible knock in his pedigree, which is not suited to a mile and a quarter.
Derby Points (110)
(4) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:25.20 (1/1) at Santa Anita Park on April 27.
Comments: The Kentucky Derby favorite has been going great guns since his sharp SA Derby wire job under Mike Smith. He had the first of his two Derby workouts at Santa Anita Park on April 21, and it was a solid move in company with Zipman. He got five furlongs in 1:00.80 and six panels in 1:13.20 before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:26.80 under his exercise rider Drayden Van Dyke. He started slow and finished fast, getting his final three furlongs in 36.00. In his final Derby move on April 27, he worked a strong seven panels (1:25.20) in company with recent maiden winner Longden (1-for-6 career record). Baffert caught the splits on his watch in 12.40, 24.40, 36.60, 49.20, 1:00.80, and 1:12.60. He galloped out a mile in 1:39.80. There is no denying his talent, and he is coming up to the race perfectly, but the 20-horse Derby stampede is a tall order for such an inexperienced horse.
Derby Points (100)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Arkansas Derby, OP, 4-14-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :47.40 (4/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in his first three wins, including a big Derby points race tally in the Rebel Stakes. He brought two bullet workouts into the Arkansas Derby, and went to the lead (slow pace) and never looked back in an easy triumph over pace presser Quip. It is easy to look good visually when everything is handed to you on a silver platter, and the same can be said of Justify. How will he handle a less than ideal trip in 20-horse Derby field? Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. He returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida after the Arkansas Derby, and shipped to Churchill Downs on April 23.
Derby Points (150)
(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The UAE Derby has not been the preferred road to the Kentucky Derby to say the least, but this colt won the aforementioned Dubai race by a commanding eighteen lengths. Beholder’s $3 million half-brother shipped to Del Mar and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. He is one of the most intriguing overseas invaders to ever compete at Churchill Downs. He has arrived in Louisville and had his initial visit under the Twin Spires on May 3.
Derby Points (100)
(7) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.20 (1/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Wood Memorial hero has been hitting all the right notes since that breakout performance. In his workout on April 20, he drew away from older stakes winner Outplay, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.77. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot, and he has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs.
Derby Points (107)
(8) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.60 (4/9) at Santa Anita Park on April 29.
Comments: Gem of consistency has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in all six starts. He has not won since breaking his maiden in his career debut, but he did cross the line first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (disqualified and placed 3rd). He has not shown a winning spirit in the stakes ranks, and the hard trying grinder has not developed a winning running style. He fired a three furlong bullet on April 23, and his final Derby move on April 29 was solid. In his latest work at Santa Anita, he galloped out seven furlongs in 1:28.20 and changed leads on time, something he has not always done. Baffert has said that he will instruct jockey Flavien Prat to take him back and let him finish in the Derby, and that strategy was successful for him in the Los Al Fururity late last year.
Derby Points (54)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (31/87) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: He earned a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and duplicated that number in in his first start this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He uncorked a big bullet at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged a mile on April 24. He might be rounding back into top form.
Derby Points (44)
(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (24/43) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Louisiana Derby winner is not afraid to get into a pace battle, and that determination to win is a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His LA Derby pilot John Velazquez has opted to ride Vino Rosso in the Derby, and Florent Geroux is his new pilot after Quip, another WinStar runner, opted to point to the Preakness Stakes. He had his first Derby workout on April 6, and breezed again in Florida on April 13. In his April 20 move, he was well clear of overmatched workmate Road to Damascus.
Derby Points (110)
(11) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:00.25 (2/7) at Palm Meadows on April 26.
Comments: The Champagne Stakes show finisher (Good Magic 2nd) ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Bravazo, Diamond King, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Reride. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was second best behind sharp winner Vino Rosso. In his latest workout on April 19, he traveled in company with Take Charge Paula, and he edged clear of his multiple Grade 2-placed workmate. It was a solid morning move, but I am concerned that his best speed rating was earned in a one-turn mile event.
Derby Points (103)
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Hofburg - (40 points) - Bill Mott’s Florida Derby runner-up late bloomer appears to be developing rapidly. He worked in company with Good Samaritan on April 15, and got the better of his classy older work mate by a head. They galloped out 5f in 1:01.37, and kept on going another furlong (1:15.30). He drilled a five furlong bullet on April 22 in 1:01.40 (1/6), and impressed again in his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 29. In his latest move, he worked in company with 3-year-old filly Villamay, and he worked a strong half-mile with an energetic gallop out. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be his Kentucky Derby pilot. Like many others, he appears to be peaking at the right time, but looking ahead, the Belmont Stakes might be his coming out party, along with Vino Rosso.
(13) My Boy Jack (32 points) - The late runner definitely earned his Derby stripes in the Sham Stakes (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), LA Derby (3rd), and Lexington Stakes (1st). He could easily land a share for Team Desormeaux if the Derby pace heats up, but at this stage he seems to prefer a mile and a sixteenth. West Point Thoroughbreds has purchased an interest in the Creative Cause colt. His lone Derby breeze was an easy five furlong maintenance move in 1:03.20 (46/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
(14) Flameaway - (70 points) - He ranks up there with My Boy Jack as a very likeable overachiever. He has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and has competed in eight stakes races with four wins, and a pair of 2nds. The early/pressing type never stops trying and has been on the muscle in his exercise leading up to the Derby. He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (12/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and came back with a half-mile breeze in :47.80 (2/87) at Churchill on April 28. Jose Lezcano is his Derby pilot.
(15) Lone Sailor - (40 points) - His lone points race success was a rallying 2nd in the LA Derby. He will be passing tired horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a minor award is not impossible, especially if the pace is swift. On April 19, he drilled a five furlong bullet in :57.60 (1/19) at Churchill Downs, and his final Derby move was a four furlong breeze in :48.00 (13/75) on April 27.
(16) Combatant - (32 points) - He settled for minor awards in all five of his Derby points race events. The late mover will be passing tired horses, and he can be used in the trifecta and superfecta.
(17) Instilled Regard (29 points) - A couple of late defections helped land him in the Derby field. His improvement pattern ended after his Jan. 13 Lecomte win, and that is not a positive pattern. He worked 5f in 1:01.00 (37/96) at Santa Anita on April 21, and came back with another five furlong move in 1:00.80 (3/62) at that same venue on April 29.
(18) Firenze Fire - (39 points) - He is easy to root for, but a mile and a quarter is too far. 25 of his 39 Kentucky Derby points were earned in one-turn mile races (Champagne, Jerome, Gotham). He breezed 3f in 39.70 (35/37) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 21, and returned with an easy half-mile breeze in 50.00 (52/83) at that same venue on April 28.
(19) Bravazo - (54 points) - He qualified for the Derby with a game prominent throughout victory in the Risen Star, but was up the track when last seen in the LA Derby. The Wayne Lukas trainee worked six furlongs from the gate at Churchill Downs in 1:15/40 (1/3) on April 20, and his final Derby breeze was a five-eighths exercise in 1:01.40 (11/55) on April 28.
(20) Promises Fulfilled - (50 points) - The Dale Romans trainee is the likely Derby front runner, but he probably won’t be around at the finish. He went all the way in the Fountain of Youth, but got caught in a speed duel before throwing in the towel in the Florida Derby. He breezed 5f in 59.20 (4/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and went that same distance in 1:00.40 (4/55) on April 28. Like Bravazo, he may have peaked over the winter.
(21) Blended Citizen (22 points) - The Derby also-eligible needs one defection to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Even if he gets in, he faces a very tall order from the far outside post position. He seems to prefer synthetic or turf footing.
Inner posts can be the kiss of death in the Derby. My Derby top Lookin At Lucky had a miserable trip from the rail in 2010, but came back two weeks later to capture the Preakness.
My Derby top Union Rags was shuffled out of contention from an inner post in 2012 but returned five weeks later to capture the Belmont Stakes. His son Free Drop Billy drew post two this year and might get shuffled back early.
For Derby post positions, I want my top win contenders to be as far away from the rail post as possible and 2015 was a good example. Early/pressing type American Pharoah drew post 18 and moved in a bit after scratches. He was free and clear and in the hunt throughout and his outer draw was the key to his victory over Firing Line and Dortmund.
Nyquist stalked the pace from post 13 en route to a 1-1/4 length victory over late striding Exaggerator in Kentucky Derby 2016.
The last four Derby winners (California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming) all had early/pressing versatility and comfortable forwardly placed trips from advantageous post positions.
From a 2018 post position standpoint, all of the main contenders landed decent positions. I think Mendelssohn did very well to land post 14. He should attend the pace while in the clear, and his draw seems to enhance his chances.
Bolt d’Oro was a big post position winner after landing 11. He projects a free and clear stalking trip.
Good Magic could fall into a beautiful ground saving stalking trip behind the speed. He could easily ride the inner portion of the track to victory.
Magnum Moon should not have any issues from post 16 and will probably stalk the pace outside.
As for post time favorite Justify, he did okay getting post 7. The key to his success is relaxing early behind likely front runner Promises Fulfilled from post 3. Flameaway has been on the engine this week, and he figures to attend the pace from post 4.
Audible is versatile and Javier Castellano will probably take up a tactical position from post 5.
At the other end of the spectrum, Firenze Fire drew the dreaded rail, but he was not a serious top four contender anyway. Combatant might have a tough go of it from post 20.
Noble Indy might be in trouble from post 19. He likes to be forwardly placed and could end up wide chasing lively fractions.
Solomini does not really have an effective winning running style, and whatever Flavien Prat decides, he better make a quick decision from post 17.
Vino Rosso will likely be coming from off the pace under John Velazquez from post 18. I would not say that he was a post position winner. It all depends on the break, and he may or may not end up with a wide or uncomfortable journey.
Everybody else did fine in the draw department including Lone Sailor (post 8), Hofburg (9), My Boy Jack (10), Enticed, (12), Bravazo, (13), and Instilled Regard (15). Blended Citizen is on the also-eligible list.
Jarrod Horak’s Final “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.20 (10/70) at Santa Anita Park on April 28.
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I rolled out my first list on 9-25-17, and I see no reason to abandon him now. His six lifetime starts have produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the 3-time graded stakes winner (2 grade one wins) has a versatile running style. He had his first Derby work at Santa Anita Park on April 22. In that move, he was eager to work, getting his first half-mile in 46.60, and cruising through five panels in a brisk 58.40. He finished his work on the clubhouse turn under slight urging. In his final Derby work on April 28, he worked a rock solid solo half-mile under a very still Victor Espinoza, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).
Derby Points (104)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.20 (8/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: The 2-year-old champion was a flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he quickly put that effort in the rear view mirror after a rock solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post position in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. The 2017 BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a great sign, but the Blue Grass was definitely a step in the right direction. Trainer Chad Brown has methodically brought him along slowly this year, and he appears to be sitting on a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. His April 21 workout at Keeneland was excellent. The solo half-mile move was strong from start to finish, and he went an additional eighth of a mile in 1:01.40, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60. He had his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 28, and once again, he was impressive. His gallops leading up to the Derby have been strong as well.
Derby Points (134)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (39/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: There is not much that this New York-bred colt cannot do. He brings a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and he beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He sat in 2nd in his romping Holy Bull Stakes victory (moderate pace). In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking hot, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt has never been a strong work horse, but his April 13 bullet was an exception. In that move, he worked inside older stablemate You’re to Blame, and finished on even terms after moving outside (pulled clear on the gallop out in 1:02.22). He worked in company with 2017 Derby also-ran Patch on April 20, and pulled well clear on the gallop out in 1:15.80. The only possible knock in his pedigree, which is not suited to a mile and a quarter.
Derby Points (110)
(4) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:25.20 (1/1) at Santa Anita Park on April 27.
Comments: The Kentucky Derby favorite has been going great guns since his sharp SA Derby wire job under Mike Smith. He had the first of his two Derby workouts at Santa Anita Park on April 21, and it was a solid move in company with Zipman. He got five furlongs in 1:00.80 and six panels in 1:13.20 before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:26.80 under his exercise rider Drayden Van Dyke. He started slow and finished fast, getting his final three furlongs in 36.00. In his final Derby move on April 27, he worked a strong seven panels (1:25.20) in company with recent maiden winner Longden (1-for-6 career record). Baffert caught the splits on his watch in 12.40, 24.40, 36.60, 49.20, 1:00.80, and 1:12.60. He galloped out a mile in 1:39.80. There is no denying his talent, and he is coming up to the race perfectly, but the 20-horse Derby stampede is a tall order for such an inexperienced horse.
Derby Points (100)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Arkansas Derby, OP, 4-14-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :47.40 (4/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in his first three wins, including a big Derby points race tally in the Rebel Stakes. He brought two bullet workouts into the Arkansas Derby, and went to the lead (slow pace) and never looked back in an easy triumph over pace presser Quip. It is easy to look good visually when everything is handed to you on a silver platter, and the same can be said of Justify. How will he handle a less than ideal trip in 20-horse Derby field? Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. He returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida after the Arkansas Derby, and shipped to Churchill Downs on April 23.
Derby Points (150)
(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The UAE Derby has not been the preferred road to the Kentucky Derby to say the least, but this colt won the aforementioned Dubai race by a commanding eighteen lengths. Beholder’s $3 million half-brother shipped to Del Mar and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. He is one of the most intriguing overseas invaders to ever compete at Churchill Downs. He has arrived in Louisville and had his initial visit under the Twin Spires on May 3.
Derby Points (100)
(7) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.20 (1/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Wood Memorial hero has been hitting all the right notes since that breakout performance. In his workout on April 20, he drew away from older stakes winner Outplay, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.77. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot, and he has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs.
Derby Points (107)
(8) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.60 (4/9) at Santa Anita Park on April 29.
Comments: Gem of consistency has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in all six starts. He has not won since breaking his maiden in his career debut, but he did cross the line first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (disqualified and placed 3rd). He has not shown a winning spirit in the stakes ranks, and the hard trying grinder has not developed a winning running style. He fired a three furlong bullet on April 23, and his final Derby move on April 29 was solid. In his latest work at Santa Anita, he galloped out seven furlongs in 1:28.20 and changed leads on time, something he has not always done. Baffert has said that he will instruct jockey Flavien Prat to take him back and let him finish in the Derby, and that strategy was successful for him in the Los Al Fururity late last year.
Derby Points (54)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (31/87) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: He earned a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and duplicated that number in in his first start this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He uncorked a big bullet at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged a mile on April 24. He might be rounding back into top form.
Derby Points (44)
(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (24/43) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Louisiana Derby winner is not afraid to get into a pace battle, and that determination to win is a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His LA Derby pilot John Velazquez has opted to ride Vino Rosso in the Derby, and Florent Geroux is his new pilot after Quip, another WinStar runner, opted to point to the Preakness Stakes. He had his first Derby workout on April 6, and breezed again in Florida on April 13. In his April 20 move, he was well clear of overmatched workmate Road to Damascus.
Derby Points (110)
(11) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:00.25 (2/7) at Palm Meadows on April 26.
Comments: The Champagne Stakes show finisher (Good Magic 2nd) ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Bravazo, Diamond King, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Reride. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was second best behind sharp winner Vino Rosso. In his latest workout on April 19, he traveled in company with Take Charge Paula, and he edged clear of his multiple Grade 2-placed workmate. It was a solid morning move, but I am concerned that his best speed rating was earned in a one-turn mile event.
Derby Points (103)
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Hofburg - (40 points) - Bill Mott’s Florida Derby runner-up late bloomer appears to be developing rapidly. He worked in company with Good Samaritan on April 15, and got the better of his classy older work mate by a head. They galloped out 5f in 1:01.37, and kept on going another furlong (1:15.30). He drilled a five furlong bullet on April 22 in 1:01.40 (1/6), and impressed again in his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 29. In his latest move, he worked in company with 3-year-old filly Villamay, and he worked a strong half-mile with an energetic gallop out. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be his Kentucky Derby pilot. Like many others, he appears to be peaking at the right time, but looking ahead, the Belmont Stakes might be his coming out party, along with Vino Rosso.
(13) My Boy Jack (32 points) - The late runner definitely earned his Derby stripes in the Sham Stakes (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), LA Derby (3rd), and Lexington Stakes (1st). He could easily land a share for Team Desormeaux if the Derby pace heats up, but at this stage he seems to prefer a mile and a sixteenth. West Point Thoroughbreds has purchased an interest in the Creative Cause colt. His lone Derby breeze was an easy five furlong maintenance move in 1:03.20 (46/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
(14) Flameaway - (70 points) - He ranks up there with My Boy Jack as a very likeable overachiever. He has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and has competed in eight stakes races with four wins, and a pair of 2nds. The early/pressing type never stops trying and has been on the muscle in his exercise leading up to the Derby. He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (12/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and came back with a half-mile breeze in :47.80 (2/87) at Churchill on April 28. Jose Lezcano is his Derby pilot.
(15) Lone Sailor - (40 points) - His lone points race success was a rallying 2nd in the LA Derby. He will be passing tired horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a minor award is not impossible, especially if the pace is swift. On April 19, he drilled a five furlong bullet in :57.60 (1/19) at Churchill Downs, and his final Derby move was a four furlong breeze in :48.00 (13/75) on April 27.
(16) Combatant - (32 points) - He settled for minor awards in all five of his Derby points race events. The late mover will be passing tired horses, and he can be used in the trifecta and superfecta.
(17) Instilled Regard (29 points) - A couple of late defections helped land him in the Derby field. His improvement pattern ended after his Jan. 13 Lecomte win, and that is not a positive pattern. He worked 5f in 1:01.00 (37/96) at Santa Anita on April 21, and came back with another five furlong move in 1:00.80 (3/62) at that same venue on April 29.
(18) Firenze Fire - (39 points) - He is easy to root for, but a mile and a quarter is too far. 25 of his 39 Kentucky Derby points were earned in one-turn mile races (Champagne, Jerome, Gotham). He breezed 3f in 39.70 (35/37) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 21, and returned with an easy half-mile breeze in 50.00 (52/83) at that same venue on April 28.
(19) Bravazo - (54 points) - He qualified for the Derby with a game prominent throughout victory in the Risen Star, but was up the track when last seen in the LA Derby. The Wayne Lukas trainee worked six furlongs from the gate at Churchill Downs in 1:15/40 (1/3) on April 20, and his final Derby breeze was a five-eighths exercise in 1:01.40 (11/55) on April 28.
(20) Promises Fulfilled - (50 points) - The Dale Romans trainee is the likely Derby front runner, but he probably won’t be around at the finish. He went all the way in the Fountain of Youth, but got caught in a speed duel before throwing in the towel in the Florida Derby. He breezed 5f in 59.20 (4/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and went that same distance in 1:00.40 (4/55) on April 28. Like Bravazo, he may have peaked over the winter.
(21) Blended Citizen (22 points) - The Derby also-eligible needs one defection to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Even if he gets in, he faces a very tall order from the far outside post position. He seems to prefer synthetic or turf footing.
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