Belmont Park (10/5/2019)
Race 10: Gr. I Champagne Stakes (8F on Dirt, $500,000 for 3yr Olds)
Kentucky Derby 2020 Points Race (10-4-2-1) - Check out our first Kentucky Derby 2020 blog post here!
1 – Alpha Sixty Six (5-1): The $400K purchase won here on September 7th and has two quality works since. Johnny V. will be in the saddle and he’s been red hot as of late winning races on both coasts. This is a horse that has the pedigree of a derby contender, so we’ll see what he does from the rail.
2 –Truculent (30-1): Get blinkers and moves back to the dirt for Jack Sisterton. The distance should not be a problem and I think this one could get better with age.
3 – Green Light Go (8-5): The morning line favorite has won two in a row for James Jerkens and should only improve with distance. He’s the only graded stakes winner in here and his Saratoga Stakes victory sure looked strong.
4 – Three Technique (7-2): Broke his maiden in his third start where he rallied from off the pace to win by five-plus lengths. Irad Ortiz will replace his brother. This guy was favored in each of his previous starts.
5 – Gozilla (6-1): Super impressive first time out at Saratoga then followed that up with a decent third in the Gr. I Hopeful. He may not have liked the track conditions that day and with his speed I think he has a great shot to rebound.
6 – Big City Bob (20-1): Has won two in a row for Jorge Duarte with her last coming over 8F. He won at big odds that day and the time was nothing impressive, so I think he has his work cut out for him.
7 – Tiz the Law (5-2): Won impressively first time out at Saratoga going 6.5F for Barclay Tagg (State-bred Md Sp Wt). He’s had four works since that race with two bullets and seems ready to roll for his second start.
Wagers:
#5 to win
Exacta Key 5 – 1,3
Exacta Key 1,3 – 5
Trifecta 1,3,5 – 1,3,5 – 2,7
Analysis by Dr. Atlas
Saturday, October 5, 2019
Breeders' Cup 2019 Preps from Keeneland: Phoenix, Alcibiades, Breeders' Futurity
Check out my Breeders' Cup 2019 Win & You're In video from Keeneland for Oct. 4 & 5 below!
Kentucky Derby 2020 Exceptional Eleven: Gouverneur Morris, Eight Rings, Dennis' Moment
It’s that time again! September means Derby fever. Well, not quite, but it is time to roll out my annual Kentucky Derby contenders list.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Eight Rings capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Before meeting the first “exceptional eleven” of 2020, let’s look at some recent historical facts.
Having experience as a 2-year-old is a major plus. Justify ended the Apollo jinx in 2018. Apollo won the Kentucky Derby in 1882. He was an unraced 2-year-old, and it took 136 years for another late blooming sophomore to break the streak. This remains a very strong angle.
The last three Derby winners did not graduate until their 3-year-old seasons (Country House, Justify, Always Dreaming). All of the Derby winners from 2002-2016 graduated during their juvenile campaigns. During that 15 year run, starting with War Emblem and ending with Nyquist, 13 of those runners graduated by October 4. Orb and Smarty Jones were the exceptions. They graduated in November.
From 2000-2003, 3 of the 4 Derby winners had their final prep in the Wood Memorial (Funny Ride, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus). It has been crickets for the Wood ever since.
From 2004-2019, most of the Derby winners exited the Arkansas Derby (4), Florida Derby (5), or SA Derby (4). You can make the Florida Derby a six pack if you count Maximum Security. The other Derby winners with different final preps were Animal Kingdom (Spiral Stakes), Mind That Bird (Sunland Derby), and Street Sense (Blue Grass).
Looking back, some of my initial September Derby blog juvenile contenders panned out, like my early 2010-2011 Number 1’s Stay Thirsty and Alpha. Both won the G1 Travers during their 3-year-old seasons. Others turn out to be disappointments like Fortify, and others got hurt along the way like Mastery.
International Star was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2015 contender, and he was scratched the morning of the Derby. Three of my original eleven Derby contenders made it to the starting gate that year including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The other two were Frosted and Carpe Diem.
Mohaymen was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2016 contender, and the 4-time grade 2 winner (Nashua, Remsen, Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth) finished 4th on the first Saturday in May.
Endorsed was my first number one Derby 2019 contender, and he was shelved after the Champagne. He did not make the Derby, but has shown promise in New York this summer with an allowance sprint win, a 2nd in the Curlin Stakes, and a solid 4th in the Travers. He is one to watch heading into 2020. Three of my original September “exceptional eleven” contenders made it to the starting gate in Derby 2019 (Code of Honor, Game Winner, Roadster).
An ideal Kentucky Derby contender would have a solid juvenile foundation, a blended speed-stamina pedigree, sharp graded stakes form, tactical speed, quality late pace ratings, and winning connections. Strong pre-Derby works are the icing on the cake.
The 2020 Derby points race series kicked off with the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs Sept. 14. Dennis’ Moment looks like a good one for Dale Romans, and he figures to vie for favoritism in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with recent G1 American Pharoah Stakes hero Eight Rings.
Iroquois Stakes (G3) Recap (9-14-19) - Winner: Dennis’ Moment ($2.80)
This was a better than average renewal of the Iroquois, at least in regards to the top two finishers. The pace was honest and strong favorite Dennis’ Moment stalked from fourth, got the jump on Scabbard, and scored comfortably by a length and three-quarters. Irad Ortiz Jr. had the winner under wraps. Scabbard did not have the smoothest trip and was well clear of the rest. Lebda chased the pace and held 3rd, and was followed by Letmeno, Rowdy Yates, January Won, Flute Maker, Automate, Juggernaut, and Zyramid.
American Pharoah Stakes (G1) Recap (9-27-19) - Winner: Eight Rings ($4.40)
It looks like we have a solid BC Juvenile (G1) favorite. Eight Rings was so impressive in his debut, but I was not quite sure what we would get from him in this spot after he behaved badly and dumped his rider as the strong favorite in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). His new rider John Velazquez was not playing around in this race. As soon as the gates opened, he shot straight to the front through fractions of 23.34, 47.06, and 1:11.71. He was clear throughout and the result was never in doubt. He increased his lead throughout and won by 6-lengths over inside stalker American Theorem. Storm the Court was a neck better than Express Train in the battle for 3rd, and they were followed by Shoplifted, Defense Wins, Fore Left, Nucky, and Collusion Illusion (pulled up, walked off). The winner was much the best, and the runner-up was clearly second best in a quality effort. The others never really got involved.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2020 Contenders (9-29-19)
(1) GOUVERNEUR MORRIS (Constitution - Addison Run, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Team Valor International & WinStar Farm LLC)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.80 (2/11) at Belmont Park on Sept. 27.
Comments: This was a very strong debut in the SAR slop at 5.5f on Sept. 2. He was bumped at the break and chased the pace, cruised up outside in the stretch, and finished with plenty in reserve to win by a very easy nine lengths. He has worked three times since his bow, including a Sept. 20 bullet. Todd Pletcher seems to have some talented youngsters, and this one is targeting the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland Oct. 5.
————--
(2) EIGHT RINGS (Empire Maker - Purely Hot, by Pure Prize)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables)
Comments: He looked like the real deal dusting sharp next-out winner Express Train in his 5.5f debut at DMR Aug. 4. The G1 Del Mar Futurity should have been a stroll in the park, but he ducked in sharply while bumping into Storm the Court, and both tossed their riders. He worked three times at SA after that fiasco, and returned with a vengeance in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes Sept. 28. In the latter race, he went straight to the front and was never seriously threatened in an easy two turn victory. He is the early favorite for the G1 BC Juvenile Nov. 1.
Derby Points (10)
————--
(3) DENNIS’ MOMENT (Tiznow - Transplendid, by Elusive Quality)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing LLC)
Comments: Clipped heels and dumped Robby Albarado in his June 23 bow at CD, and it has been all smiles since. He graduated by 19+ lengths in a 7f affair at Ellis Park July 27, and followed that up with a sharp win in the first points race in Churchill’s G3 Iroquois Sept. 14. Miguel Mena was aboard for both wins. He has all the tools to be a player on the Derby trail.
Derby Points (10)
You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Eight Rings capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Before meeting the first “exceptional eleven” of 2020, let’s look at some recent historical facts.
Having experience as a 2-year-old is a major plus. Justify ended the Apollo jinx in 2018. Apollo won the Kentucky Derby in 1882. He was an unraced 2-year-old, and it took 136 years for another late blooming sophomore to break the streak. This remains a very strong angle.
The last three Derby winners did not graduate until their 3-year-old seasons (Country House, Justify, Always Dreaming). All of the Derby winners from 2002-2016 graduated during their juvenile campaigns. During that 15 year run, starting with War Emblem and ending with Nyquist, 13 of those runners graduated by October 4. Orb and Smarty Jones were the exceptions. They graduated in November.
From 2000-2003, 3 of the 4 Derby winners had their final prep in the Wood Memorial (Funny Ride, Monarchos, Fusaichi Pegasus). It has been crickets for the Wood ever since.
From 2004-2019, most of the Derby winners exited the Arkansas Derby (4), Florida Derby (5), or SA Derby (4). You can make the Florida Derby a six pack if you count Maximum Security. The other Derby winners with different final preps were Animal Kingdom (Spiral Stakes), Mind That Bird (Sunland Derby), and Street Sense (Blue Grass).
Looking back, some of my initial September Derby blog juvenile contenders panned out, like my early 2010-2011 Number 1’s Stay Thirsty and Alpha. Both won the G1 Travers during their 3-year-old seasons. Others turn out to be disappointments like Fortify, and others got hurt along the way like Mastery.
International Star was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2015 contender, and he was scratched the morning of the Derby. Three of my original eleven Derby contenders made it to the starting gate that year including Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. The other two were Frosted and Carpe Diem.
Mohaymen was my initial number one Kentucky Derby 2016 contender, and the 4-time grade 2 winner (Nashua, Remsen, Holy Bull, Fountain of Youth) finished 4th on the first Saturday in May.
Endorsed was my first number one Derby 2019 contender, and he was shelved after the Champagne. He did not make the Derby, but has shown promise in New York this summer with an allowance sprint win, a 2nd in the Curlin Stakes, and a solid 4th in the Travers. He is one to watch heading into 2020. Three of my original September “exceptional eleven” contenders made it to the starting gate in Derby 2019 (Code of Honor, Game Winner, Roadster).
An ideal Kentucky Derby contender would have a solid juvenile foundation, a blended speed-stamina pedigree, sharp graded stakes form, tactical speed, quality late pace ratings, and winning connections. Strong pre-Derby works are the icing on the cake.
The 2020 Derby points race series kicked off with the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs Sept. 14. Dennis’ Moment looks like a good one for Dale Romans, and he figures to vie for favoritism in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with recent G1 American Pharoah Stakes hero Eight Rings.
Iroquois Stakes (G3) Recap (9-14-19) - Winner: Dennis’ Moment ($2.80)
This was a better than average renewal of the Iroquois, at least in regards to the top two finishers. The pace was honest and strong favorite Dennis’ Moment stalked from fourth, got the jump on Scabbard, and scored comfortably by a length and three-quarters. Irad Ortiz Jr. had the winner under wraps. Scabbard did not have the smoothest trip and was well clear of the rest. Lebda chased the pace and held 3rd, and was followed by Letmeno, Rowdy Yates, January Won, Flute Maker, Automate, Juggernaut, and Zyramid.
American Pharoah Stakes (G1) Recap (9-27-19) - Winner: Eight Rings ($4.40)
It looks like we have a solid BC Juvenile (G1) favorite. Eight Rings was so impressive in his debut, but I was not quite sure what we would get from him in this spot after he behaved badly and dumped his rider as the strong favorite in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). His new rider John Velazquez was not playing around in this race. As soon as the gates opened, he shot straight to the front through fractions of 23.34, 47.06, and 1:11.71. He was clear throughout and the result was never in doubt. He increased his lead throughout and won by 6-lengths over inside stalker American Theorem. Storm the Court was a neck better than Express Train in the battle for 3rd, and they were followed by Shoplifted, Defense Wins, Fore Left, Nucky, and Collusion Illusion (pulled up, walked off). The winner was much the best, and the runner-up was clearly second best in a quality effort. The others never really got involved.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2020 Contenders (9-29-19)
(1) GOUVERNEUR MORRIS (Constitution - Addison Run, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Team Valor International & WinStar Farm LLC)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.80 (2/11) at Belmont Park on Sept. 27.
Comments: This was a very strong debut in the SAR slop at 5.5f on Sept. 2. He was bumped at the break and chased the pace, cruised up outside in the stretch, and finished with plenty in reserve to win by a very easy nine lengths. He has worked three times since his bow, including a Sept. 20 bullet. Todd Pletcher seems to have some talented youngsters, and this one is targeting the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland Oct. 5.
————--
(2) EIGHT RINGS (Empire Maker - Purely Hot, by Pure Prize)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables)
Comments: He looked like the real deal dusting sharp next-out winner Express Train in his 5.5f debut at DMR Aug. 4. The G1 Del Mar Futurity should have been a stroll in the park, but he ducked in sharply while bumping into Storm the Court, and both tossed their riders. He worked three times at SA after that fiasco, and returned with a vengeance in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes Sept. 28. In the latter race, he went straight to the front and was never seriously threatened in an easy two turn victory. He is the early favorite for the G1 BC Juvenile Nov. 1.
Derby Points (10)
————--
(3) DENNIS’ MOMENT (Tiznow - Transplendid, by Elusive Quality)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing LLC)
Comments: Clipped heels and dumped Robby Albarado in his June 23 bow at CD, and it has been all smiles since. He graduated by 19+ lengths in a 7f affair at Ellis Park July 27, and followed that up with a sharp win in the first points race in Churchill’s G3 Iroquois Sept. 14. Miguel Mena was aboard for both wins. He has all the tools to be a player on the Derby trail.
Derby Points (10)
You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse
Kentucky Oaks 2020 Top 5: Bast, Donna Veloce
The Kentucky Oaks points race series for 2020 is officially off and running. Lazy Daisy won the Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday, Sept. 14, and Bast captured the Chandelier Stakes (G1) for Bob Baffert at Santa Anita Park Sept. 27. The next points race is the Alcibaides (G1) at Keeneland Oct. 4, followed by Belmont’s Frizette (G1) Oct. 6.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Bast capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Oaks 2020 Points Race Recaps
Pocahontas Recap (9-14-19) - Winner: Lazy Daisy ($16.40)
Serengeti Empress won this race by a mile last year. In the first Oaks points race, Lazy Daisy and His Glory basically battled from start to finish. In the end, it was California shipper Lazy Daisy prevailing by a hard fought length and a quarter. 43-1 longshot His Glory was clearly second best beaten favorite Portrait was miles best of the rest in 3rd. This was a very well-spaced field. Blood Curdling was 9+ back in 4th, and it was three more lengths to Morning Gold. Lotta Love was another five back in 6th place, and it was 12+ to Shadilee. The distant trailer was Addilyn. The winner completed her 8.5f journey in 1:44.89. If nothing else, she flattered runaway Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner Bast. For final time comparison, Dennis’ Moment traveled the same distance in the Iroquois (G3) in 1:43.58.
Chandelier Stakes (G1) Recap (9-27-19) - Winner: Bast ($2.40)
It was not easy but overwhelming favorite Bast got the job done, and I thought she ran well. The race shape completely changed after expected front runner Leucothea bobbled at the start and threw the rider. The pace really failed to develop after that, and Comical had a short advantage over Been Studying Her and Bast. There were three dirt routes on the day and this race by far had the slowest fractions (24.92, 49.54, and 1:13.98). Comical almost stole this one, but Bast pressed outside and got by the stubborn early runner to score by a neck. The top two were 3-lengths clear of K P Dreamin, and Been Studying Her was 15+ clear of Buyer’s Remorse. Bast remains my top ranked 2-year-old filly, and she looks like a solid threat in the BC Juvenile Fillies (G1).
Kentucky Oaks 2020 Points Leaderboard (after Chandelier)
1. Lazy Daisy - 10 points
1. Bast - 10 points
3. His Glory - 4 points
3. Comical - 4 points
5. Portrait - 2 points
5. K P Dreamin - 2 points
7. Blood Curdling - 1 point
7. Been Studying Her - 1 point
Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2020 Contenders (9-29-19)
#1 - BAST - Early division leader after G1 wins in Del Mar Futurity and Chandelier.
#2 - DONNA VELOCE - Sensational in SA bow Sept. 28. The next Bellafina for Callaghan?
#3 - ALANDRA - Gritty 7f bow at SAR Sept. 1. Shug’s filly breezed at Belmont Sept. 28.
#4 - PERFECT ALIBI - Adirondack & Spinaway winner goes next in Alcibiades Oct. 4.
#5 - FRANK’S ROCKETTE - 2nd in Adirondack & Spinaway. Breezed at SAR Sept. 23.
You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Bast capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Oaks 2020 Points Race Recaps
Pocahontas Recap (9-14-19) - Winner: Lazy Daisy ($16.40)
Serengeti Empress won this race by a mile last year. In the first Oaks points race, Lazy Daisy and His Glory basically battled from start to finish. In the end, it was California shipper Lazy Daisy prevailing by a hard fought length and a quarter. 43-1 longshot His Glory was clearly second best beaten favorite Portrait was miles best of the rest in 3rd. This was a very well-spaced field. Blood Curdling was 9+ back in 4th, and it was three more lengths to Morning Gold. Lotta Love was another five back in 6th place, and it was 12+ to Shadilee. The distant trailer was Addilyn. The winner completed her 8.5f journey in 1:44.89. If nothing else, she flattered runaway Del Mar Debutante (G1) winner Bast. For final time comparison, Dennis’ Moment traveled the same distance in the Iroquois (G3) in 1:43.58.
Chandelier Stakes (G1) Recap (9-27-19) - Winner: Bast ($2.40)
It was not easy but overwhelming favorite Bast got the job done, and I thought she ran well. The race shape completely changed after expected front runner Leucothea bobbled at the start and threw the rider. The pace really failed to develop after that, and Comical had a short advantage over Been Studying Her and Bast. There were three dirt routes on the day and this race by far had the slowest fractions (24.92, 49.54, and 1:13.98). Comical almost stole this one, but Bast pressed outside and got by the stubborn early runner to score by a neck. The top two were 3-lengths clear of K P Dreamin, and Been Studying Her was 15+ clear of Buyer’s Remorse. Bast remains my top ranked 2-year-old filly, and she looks like a solid threat in the BC Juvenile Fillies (G1).
Kentucky Oaks 2020 Points Leaderboard (after Chandelier)
1. Lazy Daisy - 10 points
1. Bast - 10 points
3. His Glory - 4 points
3. Comical - 4 points
5. Portrait - 2 points
5. K P Dreamin - 2 points
7. Blood Curdling - 1 point
7. Been Studying Her - 1 point
Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2020 Contenders (9-29-19)
#1 - BAST - Early division leader after G1 wins in Del Mar Futurity and Chandelier.
#2 - DONNA VELOCE - Sensational in SA bow Sept. 28. The next Bellafina for Callaghan?
#3 - ALANDRA - Gritty 7f bow at SAR Sept. 1. Shug’s filly breezed at Belmont Sept. 28.
#4 - PERFECT ALIBI - Adirondack & Spinaway winner goes next in Alcibiades Oct. 4.
#5 - FRANK’S ROCKETTE - 2nd in Adirondack & Spinaway. Breezed at SAR Sept. 23.
You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse
Breeders' Cup 2019 Preps: Awesome Again, John Henry Turf, Rodeo Drive: McKinzie, Mirth
Check out my Breeders' Cup Win & You're In video from Santa Anita Park for Saturday (9-28-19) below!
Pennsylvania Derby 2019 Video From Parx Featuring Mr. Money & Improbable
Check out my PA Derby video from Parx for Saturday (9-21-19) below!
Presque Isle Masters 2019 Video Featuring Hotshot Anna
Check out my Presque Isle Masters 2019 video from Presque Isle Downs for Monday (9-16-19) below!
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